Prediction Future of Josh has gone to the Dogs.

[Philhawk]

Gabba will be burnt down by Friday morning when Schache is traded.

People need to adjust their expectations

This.

I don't mean to intrude in another board, but there's suggestions I've heard Fagan will trade Shak for unders if "the price is right" - considering the possibility for value depreciation if 2018 goes the same way as 2017. Such a tough conundrum with someone as talented as him.

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

This.

I don't mean to intrude in another board, but there's suggestions I've heard Fagan will trade Shak for unders if "the price is right" - considering the possibility for value depreciation if 2018 goes the same way as 2017. Such a tough conundrum with someone as talented as him.

Feel free to intrude please. You seem sane.

I'd say it's a tough conundrum, especially for Josh, and I feel for him. For the club however, I think it's pretty simple when you estimate the value pick 25-30 is to us. We have 1, 12, 18, 20. This draft isn't fantastic so we shouldn't take more than 3 draftees in addition to Ballenden, who will be bid somewhere between 15-30. Getting pick 25 say, which will probably get eaten up by Ballenden, really only adds the advantage of freeing up pick 43... which we probably won't use. So unless an offer for Schache comes with a draft pick higher than an early bid for Ballenden (say pick 15), we don't have much to lose in giving him another shot.

If the club does trade him for a pick in the mid-late 20s, unless that pick is paramount to help us trade in a good player, then I think people on this board would have a fair case to say the club has made the wrong decision. Like David Noble said, it's the trades you don't do that are just as important as the ones you do.

But don't worry no one will burn down the Gabba. Kev's put 11 months of prep in for this test match, he's not gonna let some beta gayfl fans toss their e cigarettes on his wicket.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Feel free to intrude please. You seem sane.

I'd say it's a tough conundrum, especially for Josh, and I feel for him. For the club however, I think it's pretty simple when you estimate the value pick 25-30 is to us. We have 1, 12, 18, 20. This draft isn't fantastic so we shouldn't take more than 3 draftees in addition to Ballenden, who will be bid somewhere between 15-30. Getting pick 25 say, which will probably get eaten up by Ballenden, really only adds the advantage of freeing up pick 43... which we probably won't use. So unless an offer for Schache comes with a draft pick higher than an early bid for Ballenden (say pick 15), we don't have much to lose in giving him another shot.

If the club does trade him for a pick in the mid-late 20s, unless that pick is paramount to help us trade in a good player, then I think people on this board would have a fair case to say the club has made the wrong decision. Like David Noble said, it's the trades you don't do that are just as important as the ones you do.

But don't worry no one will burn down the Gabba. Kev's put 11 months of prep in for this test match, he's not gonna let some beta gayfl fans toss their e cigarettes on his wicket.

Don't know if this has been suggested or even allowed but it seems to me that the issue with this trade is we don't know how good Josh will be in the future. Therefore, if we get a late first round pick and we are not happy with that can we include in the trade that if Josh kicks 40 plus goals next year it also triggers a future 2018 second rounder as well? In theory the team that gets him could not play him towards end of season if he is tracking towards target but in reality this would be hard if he is kicking goals and they are battling for top 4/8.

 

[irish]

Well maybe we need to adopt the crows trading policy for contracted players !

 

[LongLion]

Sounds like we've caved; what a surprise.

The club obviously just isn't prepared to tough it out with Josh.

Waste of space

 

[royboys4eva]

I have chopped and changed my thoughts on what to do with young Josh. Right now with everything I am hearing we need to move him on and get what we can for him.

If the Dogs accept the two second round picks Essendon are offering for Stringer 25 and 30 we should take that and send Josh to the Dogs if they want him. We can use the points combined from those two picks to get Ballenden. That means we still have 4 picks inside the top 20 and Ballenden covered.

It's about the best deal I can see for us right now. Obviously I hope something better unfolds and maybe Richmond and a few clubs are just playing the game and trying to low ball us, but the more I hear the more I think clubs are not going to offer anything substantial for a player who might not be playing AFL in a couple years.

 

[geekOnaught]

Move him on for unders. We won't get anything from him onfield now anyway.

 

[LIONS08]

I have chopped and changed my thoughts on what to do with young Josh. Right now with everything I am hearing we need to move him on and get what we can for him.

If the Dogs accept the two second round picks Essendon are offering for Stringer 25 and 30 we should take that and send Josh to the Dogs if they want him. We can use the points combined from those two picks to get Ballenden. That means we still have 4 picks inside the top 20 and Ballenden covered.

It's about the best deal I can see for us right now. Obviously I hope something better unfolds and maybe Richmond and a few clubs are just playing the game and trying to low ball us, but the more I hear the more I think clubs are not going to offer anything substantial for a player who might not be playing AFL in a couple years.

If Ballenden gets bid on before 18 and 20 though we have to use them to match. You can't pick what picks you use. We would end up losing 18, getting 20 pushed back and be stuck with 25 an 30 in a shallow draft. Its just not worth it. The only way it would be beneficial is if someone deals us something in the top 10 or close to it for 18 and 20 which I really can't see happening this year.

 

[geekOnaught]

If the Dogs accept the two second round picks Essendon are offering for Stringer 25 and 30 we should take that

Hahaha would love to see Vic media's uproar if we got that. "Schache equal to Stringer? " Hahahaha hahahaha. Think Wallace's head would explode.

 

[SDG72]

However, his manager David Trotter confirmed Schache would fulfil his contract with the Lions, which has another two years remaining, if an agreement with another club was not reached.

"All parties are working hard on getting a deal done and certainly Josh is very hopeful of playing in Melbourne next year," Trotter told the Herald Sun.

"If that doesn't happen he will be happy to see out his contract in Brisbane next year."

The paragraphs above are from the AFL Trade Winds article this morning. The first time I have actually heard Josh or his Manager say that he wants to play in Melbourne next year. Makes me think it will happen this week, unfortunately.

I was of the opinion and hope that he would stay in Brisbane. The club does not have the best luck with first round picks.

 

[geekOnaught]

So in case he retires mid year we should just dump him now for a nothing draft pick and an opened packet of chips.

Yep way to go!!

But I like chips.

 

[royboys4eva]

If Ballenden gets bid on before 18 and 20 though we have to use them to match. You can't pick what picks you use. We would end up losing 18, getting 20 pushed back and be stuck with 25 an 30 in a shallow draft. Its just not worth it. The only way it would be beneficial is if someone deals us something in the top 10 or close to it for 18 and 20 which I really can't see happening this year.

Yes that is right Ballenden could go earlier and then it is up to us to make the call on him. But let's face it is a club going to take the risk of nominating Ballenden knowing if we don't get him we will be coming for him in two years time just like the Victorian clubs do to our Vic players.

 

[lioninthesand]

Would you really take that; a nothing draft pick in a crap draft and a below average player?

Yes. I would. Josh isn't exactly hot property and I don't want the shache saga to draw out for another year. I don't subscribe to this 'weak draft' crap anyway, last year was 'weak beyond the top 10' and we netted Berry and Witho in that late first, early second range.. there will be similar steals in this draft.

Also who says we might not be able to trade up into the top 10 with 17 and something else?

 

[lioninthesand]

Seems like slightly overs in your favour, definitely.
But we are desperate for a key forward and would pay overs to get one.
Would most likely involve a swap of 3rd round picks I think

Its not overs mate, settle.

 

[Dale4captain]

How are the Cameron negotiations coming? Are they genuinely saying no to your late first rounder?

 

[Two Eyes]

I think it's pretty clear Brisbane are convinced they are not going to gain anything from keeping Schache on their list.

Unfortunately (and extraordinarily) he seems to be getting little interest from Vic clubs. It's bad luck that this year a pick in the 20s has little value for Brisbane (unless they can i trade it for something).

What to do? Seems like a lose/lose scenario. Maybe if Brisbane genuinely care about his wellbeing they just let him go to the Bulldogs for a pick that isn't much use to them.

 

[Dale4captain]

Does 13 and 28 get the dogs Schache and 18?

I know some of you will think that's gross, but I just dont see the Dogs doing a straight swap of 13 for Josh as the market stands.

Side note: Anyone finding player values absolutely F***** this year compared to the past few?

 

[Dylan12]

Also who says we might not be able to trade up into the top 10 with 17 and something else?

There’s like 5 clubs or so trying to do the same thing so good luck with that.

 

[Dylan12]

Side note: Anyone finding player values absolutely F***** this year compared to the past few?

It seems a former high draft pick is exactly like purchasing a luxury car, all of a sudden a 2-4 year player that has been in the system and games under their belt i.e. like s top line car with all the extras and only 20-40,000kms on the clock is now worth less than a brand new basic Asian car despite it being superior in every way...or something like that anyway.

 

[Dale4captain]

It seems a former high draft pick is exactly like purchasing a luxury car, all of a sudden a 2-4 year player that has been in the system and games under their belt i.e. like s top line car with all the extras and only 20-40,000kms on the clock is now worth less than a brand new basic Asian car despite it being superior in every way...or something like that anyway.

Agreed. And players who sit in that 18-30 space on your list now are worth jack shit. Like, near valueless. Happened overnight.

 

[Dylan12]

Agreed. And players who sit in that 18-30 space on your list now are worth jack shit. Like, near valueless. Happened overnight.

It seems most players values depreciate the moment they’re drafted, particularly players drafted 1-25 in their draft year except the occasional outlier.

 

[chopperduck]

Does 13 and 28 get the dogs Schache and 18?

I know some of you will think that's gross, but I just dont see the Dogs doing a straight swap of 13 for Josh as the market stands.

Side note: Anyone finding player values absolutely F***** this year compared to the past few?

I think something like this might not be too far. Whilst on face value it isn't much for Schache, but i think you have to look at what that then allows us to do. Our drafting is complicated with Ballenden being likely to go around our picks 18 and 20. Being able to move 18 up to 13 gets that pick out of the 'Ballenden zone'. Getting 28 gives us a very nice pick points wise to probably outright match a Ballenden bid. Our next pick is 43(ish) and it is sounding like we might use it on Lobbe.

So we get Lobbe, Ballenden is covered with 28, that leaves us 1, 12, 13 and 20. Depends what happens with Cameron, with Lobbe coming in i fancy Martin might go out, and perhaps there is some multi club swapping that lands us Cameron. Perhaps it still takes pick 20 as well so i'll leave that out for now. I think we can then very easily use 12 & 13 to get another high top 10 pick.

So whilst on face value that trade isn't all that much, in reality it opens the door for some other things that might not happen otherwise, and i think some of our supporters need to look at the bigger picture when looking at the Schache trade. Say we get pick 7 and a later pick for 12 & 13 from Saints as example, we essentially end up with pick 7 that wouldn't have happened without that Schache trade, so we have effectively got pick 7 for him.

I think we have a LOT of moving pieces this trade period and there is a lot happening in the back ground.

 

[M Malice]

Trade Radio reporting that interest in Schache is really hotting up today with the Dogs the main suitor, let the bidding begin.

David Noble on Trade Radio in around 10-15 minutes.

 

[Surly Boy]

 

[Dale4captain]

I think something like this might not be too far. Whilst on face value it isn't much for Schache, but i think you have to look at what that then allows us to do. Our drafting is complicated with Ballenden being likely to go around our picks 18 and 20. Being able to move 18 up to 13 gets that pick out of the 'Ballenden zone'. Getting 28 gives us a very nice pick points wise to probably outright match a Ballenden bid. Our next pick is 43(ish) and it is sounding like we might use it on Lobbe.

So we get Lobbe, Ballenden is covered with 28, that leaves us 1, 12, 13 and 20. Depends what happens with Cameron, with Lobbe coming in i fancy Martin might go out, and perhaps there is some multi club swapping that lands us Cameron. Perhaps it still takes pick 20 as well so i'll leave that out for now. I think we can then very easily use 12 & 13 to get another high top 10 pick.

So whilst on face value that trade isn't all that much, in reality it opens the door for some other things that might not happen otherwise, and i think some of our supporters need to look at the bigger picture when looking at the Schache trade. Say we get pick 7 and a later pick for 12 & 13 from Saints as example, we essentially end up with pick 7 that wouldn't have happened without that Schache trade, so we have effectively got pick 7 for him.

I think we have a LOT of moving pieces this trade period and there is a lot happening in the back ground.

Really nice way to look at it. We're taking a similar approach to the Stringer trade. It's the parts we receive and what we do with them, not the raw picks.