Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[threenewpadlocks]

Agree. But you've been framing the argument that if we had won 1 more game and if he had won x amount of finals and that we're/he's disadvantaged because of the draw etc, etc.

It's quite obvious that you think he's a good coach. You have been apologizing and putting a positive spin on everything he and the club have done for as long as I can be bothered to remember.

Your entitled to your opinion and that's fine. I'd rate at least 5 coaches that made finals as better coaches tactically than Bevo.

I'm trying to measure Beveridge by the things that's fair for him to control. He can't control if oppositions kick well at goal, for instance, and a bit better luck for that across the season would have gotten us to the top four. The loss to Sydney when we had in-game injuries was a bit of a bummer (especially at the time people thought it could mean we could miss finals), but many were in the post-match thread talking about how unlucky we were to lose that, because Sydney found a way to kick 16.6 for that game, for example. If we were fair to Bevo in the aftermath of the game, we can be equally fair to the ultimate implications of whether he did or didn't coach us to top 4 by the end of the season.

Many of the things that he can control (like how to set up the team in pre-season, tactically, and decisions of where to play players) distribute themselves randomly, to some extent, across games. I've made this point a million times before, but less more likely to win games in the future, if in the previous two games before that one, we won one game by 10 points and a second by 20, as opposed to losing one game by 5 points and winning another by 55. I'm not saying there's no skill in coaching to a win on game day - if the numbers were +10/+20 and -5/4+0, I think that's fair enough to call the first set of margins better. But not compared to -5/+55.

We had the second-best percentage on the year. I'm not saying it means that we were the second-best team on the year, because it's a somewhat imprecise measurement, because running up scores against non-finals teams isn't really equal to how you measure up in competitive games against other best teams (fair enough). But it's also not a completely worthless measurement and you shouldn't discount it too much, so I would argue that that pushes us down to being the second best team (measured by percentage) to at worst the fourth or fifth best-team on the year. so the fact that it merely manifested itself to sixth on the ladder is somewhat unlucky and, to some extent, out of Bevo's control. Additionally, we were unfortunate to play a team that also had good form in the second half of the year in finals at their home ground (Hawthorn), rather than play a team with patchier second-half of the season form, like GWS, Sydney, Geelong or Carlton, all whom we beat in the second half of the year.

 

[Pugz89]

Moreso that framing the argument in this way is dumb and calling Bevo brilliant if he had won finals or hopeless because he lost a final without the nuance and the context of the final is dumb, that's the point.

In terms of measuring what he can control, what he's changed over the last 18 months, what's a good predictor for the future, I think Bevo is a good coach. https://squiggle.com.au/power-rankings/

We're certainly not going to move on from him now after we didn't move on from him at the end of last year, giving him a chance, with changes around him, to demonstrate an improvement on the other years, which duly happened (we did win more games this season than in all of the most recent seasons), especially as that improvement is more recent.

Literally winning a final is the lowest bar for what many deem is a successful season, hence using that as the argument. It's not dumb at all.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I think Bevo stands a head above the rest with his integrity, he doesn’t approach players still under contract during the season unlike Mitchell and Scott, and others, even though he might have to change this with the ruthless way some clubs go about it.

I don’t think he would ever pull the rug out from Under the Bulldogs, he loves the players and club to much.

 

[ossie_21]

I think Bevo stands a head above the rest with his integrity, he doesn’t approach players still under contract during the season unlike Mitchell and Scott, and others, even though he might have to change this with the ruthless way some clubs go about it.

I don’t think he would ever pull the rug out from Under the Bulldogs, he loves the players and club to much.

This is the big thing these days. It’s all good to come across as a proper club and doing things the right way…but nobody is successful from only doing the right thing all the time.

Maybe we were in the box seat for Barrass, but Hawks swooped (punny). It’s like the Bulldogs are one of those sayings I know that has stuck with me:

Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Literally winning a final is the lowest bar for what many deem is a successful season, hence using that as the argument. It's not dumb at all.

I don't understand this at all. If the finals matchups had orchestrated in a different way and we had defeated an injury-Carlton team kicking 7.19 on the day by 1 point, and then lost by 100 points the following week, it would have been a successful season? That would have reflected better on Bevo as a coach?

 

[yebach]

I'm trying to measure Beveridge by the things that's fair for him to control. He can't control if oppositions kick well at goal, for instance, and a bit better luck for that across the season would have gotten us to the top four. The loss to Sydney when we had in-game injuries was a bit of a bummer (especially at the time people thought it could mean we could miss finals), but many were in the post-match thread talking about how unlucky we were to lose that, because Sydney found a way to kick 16.6 for that game, for example. If we were fair to Bevo in the aftermath of the game, we can be equally fair to the ultimate implications of whether he did or didn't coach us to top 4 by the end of the season.

Many of the things that he can control (like how to set up the team in pre-season, tactically, and decisions of where to play players) distribute themselves randomly, to some extent, across games. I've made this point a million times before, but less more likely to win games in the future, if in the previous two games before that one, we won one game by 10 points and a second by 20, as opposed to losing one game by 5 points and winning another by 55. I'm not saying there's no skill in coaching to a win on game day - if the numbers were +10/+20 and -5/4+0, I think that's fair enough to call the first set of margins better. But not compared to -5/+55.

We had the second-best percentage on the year. I'm not saying it means that we were the second-best team on the year, because it's a somewhat imprecise measurement, because running up scores against non-finals teams isn't really equal to how you measure up in competitive games against other best teams (fair enough). But it's also not a completely worthless measurement and you shouldn't discount it too much, so I would argue that that pushes us down to being the second best team (measured by percentage) to at worst the fourth or fifth best-team on the year. so the fact that it merely manifested itself to sixth on the ladder is somewhat unlucky and, to some extent, out of Bevo's control. Additionally, we were unfortunate to play a team that also had good form in the second half of the year in finals at their home ground (Hawthorn), rather than play a team with patchier second-half of the season form, like GWS, Sydney, Geelong or Carlton, all whom we beat in the second half of the year.

I totally agree that we're at worst the fourth or fifth best team in it. I'd argue that we have a top 3 list.

This is where we differ.
The fact that we've been knocked out first up isn't unlucky. It's poor selection, non existent planning for the opposition on the day and no contingency plan if the game gets starts to slip away.
If you look at our finals in isolation. Or any of our losses when we were considered a top team of Bevo's tenure. You'll see that there's a consistent pattern of self sabotaging selection calls and non existent tactical coaching.

 

[Pugz89]

I don't understand this at all. If the finals matchups had orchestrated in a different way and we had defeated an injury-Carlton team kicking 7.19 on the day by 1 point, and then lost by 100 points the following week, it would have been a successful season? That would have reflected better on Bevo as a coach?

According to many, yes.

 

[The Inbetweener]

He has made grand finals in two out of 10 seasons as coach.
I'd say anyone who manages to perform within the top 11% of his department just 20 per cent of the time is overperforming.
Especially as he's responsible for the list developing well in the past couple of years.

His performance needs to be looked at more recently, not what he achieved 10 years ago. He hasn’t gone past the first week of finals in the last 3 years. That is underperforming.

 

[dergert]

Bevo the QT was involved with Footscray's training today.

Cheeky bugger.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

His performance needs to be looked at more recently, not what he achieved 10 years ago. He hasn’t gone past the first week of finals in the last 3 years. That is underperforming.

former dees president has called for Goodwin to be sacked, only after 3 years after winning their flag. and thats coming from a former dees president.

our flag was 8 years ago

 

[SonOfScray]

He shouldn't get an extension.

Wasting 2025 if he is given the season to run down his contract before making a change.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

He shouldn't get an extension.

Wasting 2025 if he is given the season to run down his contract before making a change.

+1
I don't want to see an extension until deep into the season and we're sitting well in the top 4.

If we're teetering in/out of top 8 and playing selection bingo again, no more.

 

[redmania]

I have been told a rumour that bevo is considering packing it in. Just sharing on here source has contacts within the club. I'd says it's a meek rumour. But thought I'd share.

 

[nooB]

I have been told a rumour that bevo is considering packing it in. Just sharing on here source has contacts within the club. I'd says it's a meek rumour. But thought I'd share.

Would be crazy news to be honest. I think he's earnt the right to see out the 2025 contract if he wants based on the back half of 2024 season. The credits are dry from 2016 and 2021 now though. Thanks for the memories Bevo, never been one to slander the great man as he delivered the highest of highs, but if he leaves now or after 2025 I think you'd say he did alright at the club. Should he have done more? Certainly with the resources that was made available to him.

We get caught up into too much sentimental stuff at the bulldogs, and sometimes it does hurt the club moving forward.

 

[BEaston]

Literally winning a final is the lowest bar for what many deem is a successful season, hence using that as the argument. It's not dumb at all.

If that is your metric, do you expect the team to do that every season or sack the coach? Can you flesh this theory out for me?

 

[Sid Nullis]

I have been told a rumour that bevo is considering packing it in. Just sharing on here source has contacts within the club. I'd says it's a meek rumour. But thought I'd share.

Heard the same from someone who gets reliable info.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I have been told a rumour that bevo is considering packing it in. Just sharing on here source has contacts within the club. I'd says it's a meek rumour. But thought I'd share.

I doubt it is true but if it was I am sure we would have a lot interest. Far from WCE, Tigers or North where a massive rebuilt is required. I reckon Nathan Buckley would be interested. The Buckley ADZ bromance would need repairing but I would not mind Buckley.

 

[maddog37]

I doubt it is true but if it was I am sure we would have a lot interest. Far from WCE, Tigers or North where a massive rebuilt is required. I reckon Nathan Buckley would be interested. The Buckley ADZ bromance would need repairing but I would not mind Buckley.

Yuck.

Buckley is as boring as white bread.

 

[Libba39]

I totally agree that we're at worst the fourth or fifth best team in it. I'd argue that we have a top 3 list.

This is where we differ.
The fact that we've been knocked out first up isn't unlucky. It's poor selection, non existent planning for the opposition on the day and no contingency plan if the game gets starts to slip away.
If you look at our finals in isolation. Or any of our losses when we were considered a top team of Bevo's tenure. You'll see that there's a consistent pattern of self sabotaging selection calls and non existent tactical coaching.

To be honest I think the continuous claims that we have a top 3 list are laughable.

Firstly I'd say without even blinking that in terms of best 22 we are behind Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

There's your top 3 done.

You could argue strongly that our list is behind GWS, a fully fit Collingwood, and even a fully fit Carlton (browlow medalist, AA full back and 2 Coleman medalists).

And this is without even mentioning the Hawks. They have even quality across all lines and at the moment I'd jist about take Meek and Dear over English and Jamarra as a duo. Oh, and they've now beaten us the last 3 times.

In summary we're mid-table, so time to take the rose-coloured glasses off.

On SM-A505YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Doggy]

To be honest I think the continuous claims that we have a top 3 list are laughable.

Firstly I'd say without even blinking that in terms of best 22 we are behind Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

There's your top 3 done.

You could argue strongly that our list is behind GWS, a fully fit Collingwood, and even a fully fit Carlton (browlow medalist, AA full back and 2 Coleman medalists).

And this is without even mentioning the Hawks. They have even quality across all lines and at the moment I'd jist about take Meek and Dear over English and Jamarra as a duo. Oh, and they've now beaten us the last 3 times.

In summary we're mid-table, so time to take the rose-coloured glasses off.

On SM-A505YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

You've had a mare here.

I'm not saying it is top 3, but lol Hawthorn. Brisbane's list has always been overrated and it's on the decline. They won't win anything and will soon lose the Gabba for a while. They blew it last year.

Collingwood are mostly gone. They have some very good players but as a whole it is very meh.

Carlton again has some good quality but a fair few spuds in that team

Geelong? No. They have a better coach

 

[Pugz89]

If that is your metric, do you expect the team to do that every season or sack the coach? Can you flesh this theory out for me?

Statistically, you have a 45% chance of playing finals each year, and a 33% chance of being in the final six of a season (by either finishing top four or winning an elimination final).
So law of averages says over a 10-year period, you should finish in the top six three times, but given the strength of our list over his tenure, I think that is the bottom end of expectations.
To finish in the top six just 20% of the time over a 10-year period is cause for concern imo.

 

[yebach]

To be honest I think the continuous claims that we have a top 3 list are laughable.

Firstly I'd say without even blinking that in terms of best 22 we are behind Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

There's your top 3 done.

You could argue strongly that our list is behind GWS, a fully fit Collingwood, and even a fully fit Carlton (browlow medalist, AA full back and 2 Coleman medalists).

And this is without even mentioning the Hawks. They have even quality across all lines and at the moment I'd jist about take Meek and Dear over English and Jamarra as a duo. Oh, and they've now beaten us the last 3 times.

In summary we're mid-table, so time to take the rose-coloured glasses off.

On SM-A505YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

The only rose coloured glasses are the one's that see Beveridge as great coach.

 

[BEaston]

Statistically, you have a 45% chance of playing finals each year, and a 33% chance of being in the final six of a season (by either finishing top four or winning an elimination final).
So law of averages says over a 10-year period, you should finish in the top six three times, but given the strength of our list over his tenure, I think that is the bottom end of expectations.
To finish in the top six just 20% of the time over a 10-year period is cause for concern imo.

Do you give the full 10 years to see if a coach can do it 3 times? Or cut it early? When?

By the same logic, it's 5.5% for a premiership and 11% for top 2 - both of which we're ahead in.
So we're behind on top 6, but a head in top 1 and 2.

It's just all so arbitrary.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

So those that want Bevo gone, who do you propose as our next coach?

 

[CarnTheScray]

So those that want Bevo gone, who do you propose as our next coach?

I’m not sure, but there’s always someone.

Who proposed Luke Beveridge as coach on here before McCartney got sacked. Willing to bet no one.