Geelong 2012

[demondavey]

A lot of speculation about whether Geelong will go again in 2012 due to the statements regarding 'ageing players' and 'premiership windows'. After last year it was even worse, but id like to shed some light on the stats of some of these Geelong stars.

Mooney - Retired
Milburn - On the way out
Ottens - ??

Corey - Will be 30 next season, still plenty of go in him yet
Enright - Wont be 31 until September
Chapman - Wont be 31 until November
Bartel - 29 next year, at the end of the year
Hunt - 30 next year
Johnson - 29 next year
Kelly - 29 next year
Ling - 31 next year
Lonergan - 28 next year
Mackie - 28 next year
Scarlett - going around another year
Taylor - Only 25
Varcoe - Only 23
Hawkins - Only 23
Wojcinski - 32 at the end of next year

If you ask me, these guys in bold all have plenty in the tank for 2012. I am not sure where they are at in terms of contracts, injuries or anything like that, but the 'age' excuse certainly can not be used. I would not expect Geelong to slow down in 2012.

 

[catters05]

If they can finish in the Top 4, i guess anything can happen, but that is a big IF.

 

[i_need_a_pencil]

If they can finish in the Top 4, i guess anything can happen, but that is a big IF.

I agree... If we finish top 4, or even in the 8 - and have a good run into the finals, we have the cattle to win the big games and other teams probably won't want to play us.

However, each year with this same group is harder - each game the older ones play I'm sure they will find it harder to get back and recover for the next week.

I'm expecting as much for next season as I did for this one (hopefully top 4) - it is a very old group.

I also think if there is a genuine bolter next year, with some new amazing game plan it'll be harder for us to get up - I think the majority of this season was practicing how to beat the Pies, and the press. If things stay much the same, with the press and pressure etc.. then I rate our chances, but if things change winning through sheer will, will be harder.

 

[SJ]

The more times we finish top four, the more the rest of the competition should be having a long hard look at themselves.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think Ottens will hang them up this year. He's a big loss, but both Nathan Vardy and Dawson Simpson have shown enough for us to have confidence in them (along with Trent West) for the future.

Milburn is gone, but the back six still looks pretty settled until the end of next year at least with J. Hunt, Lonergan, Scarlett, Enright, Taylor and Mackie. Not many better back sixes going around than that. In three years time, Scarlett, Hunt and probably Enright will be gone, which means Tom Gillies must step up and show us something in 2012. I'd also be looking for ex-basketballer, Ryan Bathie, who was impressive as a key defender at VFL level. If he can continue his development, maybe Taylor slides into the current Scarlett role in three years. Taylor Hunt is a tough and pacy HBF/W and there will be a more permanent spot for him next year. Marcus Drum is actually a very big loss, as he had the potential to play big or small, if he'd ever been able to get his body right. We need more medium/tall defenders and I think if someone like Jordan Russell comes up, he'd definitely be worth a look.

Tough to make a call on Cam Guthrie, Josh Cowan and Steven Motlop, but all should be given plenty of opportunity to show what they can do in 2012. It's really a credit to Guthrie and Cowan that they were able to crack the seniors this year and get a taste of AFL. It's getting to be make or break time for Motlop and he still gets pushed off the ball too easily. Look out for our 2010 first round pick, Billie Smedts, who never got much of a chance this year, due to injury. Mitch Duncan and Allen Christensen will continue their apprenticeships as part-time midfielders; both have been very impressive. With Ling on the way out, Simon Hogan may be given a chance to cement a spot as a disciplined tagger.

Mitch Brown will hopefully get an injury-free season finally, but it's hard to predict how many games he will get, as Vardy continues his development and Hawkins and Pods look to be the tall combo in the forward line for the forseeable future (I say Pods will play three more years and get his 100 games). Brown is agile enough to play on a flank (and he absolutely should, considering his slight frame), but with Chapman, Johnson, Stokes, Christensen, Byrnes etc, someone has to miss out. Daniel Menzel has optimistically set a Round 12-16 return as his goal.

All-in-all, there's plenty to be excited about. The drop-off is inevitable, but if all goes to plan, it doesn't have to be as steep as some are predicting.

 

[LeverPuller]

I'd suggest Lingy is going to take a look at retiring. Post-match interview on Saturday was telling.

 

[Byron2008]

To be honest... The big loss will be Otto..

I don't think people realise how much he does for our midfielders. Although huge, once the ball hits the deck he not only gets down low to pick it up, but he has amazingly quick hands for a bloke his size... Not to mention his work up forward, even when he's not kicking goals. His body work and blocking is sensational (eg. him rag dolling reid out of the way to set up Hawkins soccer goal).. He single handedly set up that massive run against Hawthorn in that first final....

[YOUTUBE]wzyRViiQXQ8[/YOUTUBE]

 

[vonn]

Too old and too slow

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

That's true, but Simpson, West and Vardy are all legitimate AFL ruckmen (in my opinion). Short-term loss, long-term gain for a young ruckman to work with the Geelong midfield in their developing years, as far as I'm concerned. I'm happy for Ottens to go on, but just as happy for him to retire, with all due respect to him.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'd suggest Lingy is going to take a look at retiring. Post-match interview on Saturday was telling.

If he does, it would be interesting to see if Geelong would consider throwing Troy Selwood a lifeline. I don't think they will and I'm not sure that he's even interested (he is apparently happy playing VFL and working in an admin role at Geelong), but there'd be worse options for midfield/backline depth.

 

[Lemma]

Agree that Otto will be the biggest loss. I've lost count of the number of finals he has played well

 

[cats2rise]

We got 103 games of experience into our younger players this year (I included West in that lot although he is a bit older than Cowan, Christensen, Menzel etc etc)

Ottens, Scarlett and Enright are the irreplaceables in my opinion.

We will make top 4 regardless of Otto departing. Vardy/West as the ruck/forward with Dawson Simpson as the outright replacement for otto.

Who will kick us out of the top 4?
Hawks will finish top 2, Eagles will be there abouts, Carlton there abouts, Pies may find it harder under Buckley.. and then there is us. Cant see Saints or Sydney making top 4 and the rest are meh.

 

[jj1978]

I would suspect that Scott and the coaching panel would prefer to have not as dominant H&A year next year by continually resting and rotating players and win JUST enough to sneak into 4th (14-16 wins)...

Then once 4th place is at least delivered prime themselves again to be the best team in September!

The only thing that will derail Geelong's top 4/8 plans for next year is major injuries to a few big key players.

 

[Jentleman Geff]

So long as Scarlett is fit and in form they will be up there.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Who will kick us out of the top 4?
Hawks will finish top 2, Eagles will be there abouts, Carlton there abouts, Pies may find it harder under Buckley.. and then there is us. Cant see Saints or Sydney making top 4 and the rest are meh.

Fremantle has the potential. They should aim to win nine games at home and if they get a favourable draw (playing a few weaker Vic sides and perhaps GWS/GC/PA away), they're good enough to win six interstate. They've got a good team, if everyone gets on the park at once, and it appears that they're adding Mitch Clark to the mix, to form a very good ruck/forward tandem with Sandilands. Morabito is back and will be a huge inclusion.

 

[Pessimistic]

Theyve moved into rotating to preserve fitness. IMO theyll do even more of it next year and the rest of the comp will follow.

Hawks have over 30 players who can play in seniors, have indicated there will be minimal changes so I expect they will emulate the cats as soon as next year - rotating and resting I mean.

Given that, Top 4 is gettable - easy

 

[The 747]

Should still be up. Of those we lose this year:

Drum - never played
Blake - was never going to get played
Mooney - no longer best 22 and Hawkins has finally replaced him as the good mark who can't kick in our side
Milburn - will be missed but not hugely, given the experience we still have down back.

Maybes
Ling - will be missed but opens up a spot
Ottens - we will be significantly weaker without him. Replacement rucks will be competitive but Ottens is able to dominate big games.

In 2013 when Scarlett retires we will slide big time. He is irreplaceable.

 

[Lewis#3]

I agree... If we finish top 4, or even in the 8 - and have a good run into the finals, we have the cattle to win the big games and other teams probably won't want to play us.

However, each year with this same group is harder - each game the older ones play I'm sure they will find it harder to get back and recover for the next week.

I'm expecting as much for next season as I did for this one (hopefully top 4) - it is a very old group.

I also think if there is a genuine bolter next year, with some new amazing game plan it'll be harder for us to get up - I think the majority of this season was practicing how to beat the Pies, and the press. If things stay much the same, with the press and pressure etc.. then I rate our chances, but if things change winning through sheer will, will be harder.

Very good post I was thinking along the same lines, geelong worked out the press this year and I think collingwood will obviously know that and will have to come up with a new game plan. I only see them challenging geelong with the hawks not to far behind.West coast and freo could get their act together but im not sure about their ability to win finals in melbourne against teams like geelong and collingood.

 

[Lach72]

I don;t think Ottens will be that big a loss. He's not played outstanding footy for a while. Menzel won't play much, if at all next year. That's a bigger loss.

They still have one of the Ablett compo picks to use. I think they can regenerate.
I'd be looking for a BP to ease Hunt out over the next year, and giving Duncan more mid time with Chapman more up forward, maybe.
Perhaps also use Vardy as a KPF for Pods

 

[Archangel]

Cats/Hawks GF

 

[Pessimistic]

Cats/Hawks GF

Dont you want to go back2back ?

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Cats/Hawks GF

Yes please

 

[8732watitdo]

After seeing their young players in the finals, I doubt whether the cats will fall out of the 8 in the next 3-4 years.

 

[Lasso]

3 of this years top 5, carlton, hawthorn and west coast should improve next year, plus the fact that collingwood will be hungry as anything.

Geelong haven't been able to get the consecutive flags before in their prime, so it's hard to see them doing it next year. Teams always say they will but its hard to find the motivation after the thirst was so thoroughly quenched the previous season (hawks 09, eagles 93 & 07 etc).

If they do then that'd be a freakish achievement.

 

[volcboy]

I'm just glad that we have Stephen Wells at the club. His ability to draft quality players is astonishing. In our past premiership years (i.e. lowest possible draft positions:

2009
Daniel Menzel - 17
Mitch Duncan - 28
Allen Christensen - 40
Nathan Vardy - 42
Josh Cowan - 56

Two are now premiership players, two could well have been (barring injury) and the other has played senior football this year.

2007
Harry Taylor - 17
Dawson Simpson - 34

One is a dual premiership player and All-Australian, the other played senior football this year and is possibly next in line should Ottens retire.