Geelong - Too old, too slow?

[My Tilly]

Danger is a strange player at the moment. He's got 2 gears, superstar and very average.

Have a look at how he was tracking before a seemingly innocuous contested mark ruined his season against Port Adelaide.
Averaging 24.5 disposals, 7 clearances, 7 inside 50's, 1.7 goal assists and 0.6 goals himself.

The moment he broke his ribs and punctured a lung, his output dropped away.
And some may say he would have regressed throughout the year anyway but look back to the second half of last year, he was in career-best form (or thereabouts at least).

 

[The Gulden Child]

You Geelong customers don't realize how big of an impact there is with such a large list turnover.

Won't happen anyway. Chris Scott will want to keep most of the list together and you'll go with top ups again. I fully expect your club to target Brodie Grundy

Grundy would be a great get for them. Just ruck him all day and thats it.

 

[The Gulden Child]

From 2004 it's been:

PF
SF
Miss finals
Premiers
GF
Premiers
PF
Premiers
EF
PF
SF
Miss finals
PF
PF
EF
PF
GF
PF
Premiers
Miss finals

20 years where the longest sequence of failing to make a grand final is 8 seasons, failing to make a preliminary final is two seasons and failing to make finals is one season.

It can't last forever but gravity has been denied for a while.

Fantastic run. Consistently up to your neck in it. People who say the Geelong underachieved are just being disingenuous.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Geelong and Richmond are in similar positions though most fans either side would be loathe to open the other eye and admit it.


Two long term successful coaches, Richmond will change theirs but Scott won't be there forever before change is on the horizon either.

Two aging lists, champions who aren't getting any better and aren't going to improve from here, the decline in form and injury can come quickly which is always a risk.

A scattering of decent youth/mid 20s players who will be around for a while, but due to recent success neither list has the most exciting youth in the league and none of them have the next 18 year old Martin, Dangerfield or Riewoldt, Hawkins on their list.

Both will just miss finals this year, and given this season both could have probably just made finals with a bit of luck. Some calls will need to be made on both lists in the off season because again I don't think either aging list is winning a flag in 2024 ahead of younger hungrier sides, again some one eyed supporters from both ends would be loathe to admit that.

The approaches they both take from here are really interesting, because they're both facing or about to face the same issues and challenges.

It's hard to argue with any of that.

 

[matey]

You used some strange players to compare.

More like

SDK = Scarlett
Bruhn = Ablett
Clark = Bartel

That is hilarious …… Bruhn wouldn’t get a game in the 16th team on the ladder probably not even the 18th!

 

[PhatBoy]

That is hilarious …… Bruhn wouldn’t get a game in the 16th team on the ladder probably not even the 18th!

Zing.

 

[matey]

Zing.

What that Bruhn is your Ablett replacement?

And who would Bruhn keep out at Hawthorn …….. Newk, Day, Worps, Weddle, Nash, Ward …….. ? Bruhn is playing 50 games next week and hasn’t show anything special!!!! So many other young mids at other clubs are so much better.

 

[Mr Meow]

What that Bruhn is your Ablett replacement?

And who would Bruhn keep out at Hawthorn …….. Newk, Day, Worps, Weddle, Nash, Ward …….. ? Bruhn is playing 50 games next week? and does show anything special!!!! So many other young mids are so much better.

Is there a reason you obsess over Bruhn each week? He was a Stephens upgrade and he's upholding that so far.

 

[matey]

Is there a reason you obsess over Bruhn each week? He was a Stephens upgrade and he's upholding that so far.

Could be but if he was at the Hawks Bruhn would be lining up each week with Stephens at BH but Bruhn is playing each week in Cats best 22 ………… that really tells us all where your midfield group is at

 

[Mr Meow]

Could be but if he was at the Hawks Bruhn would be lining up each week with Stephens at BH but Bruhn is playing each week in Cats best 22 ………… that really tells us all where your midfield group is at

Yeah, minus our 2022 B&F.

Bruhn's second half of the season has seen genuine improvement. It's been his first season as a primary midfielder. He'll take steps forward over the next couple of years

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

That is hilarious …… Bruhn wouldn’t get a game in the 16th team on the ladder probably not even the 18th!

The same was said of Ablett at the same age.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Here we go again. Old mate matey is back.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Here we go again. Old mate matey is back.

What we do know is last year almost killed him.

 

[GeTrain]

Cats will be back fairly soon. Their unique go home factor will mean they'll probably always be a destination club, highly respected coach and great list management team. Probably need to hit the draft for 2-3 years though.

 

[matey]

I saw a lot of positive signs and thoughts from the changes happening straight after the Hawks 4 premierships (with so many champions calling it a day/moving on) thinking it would keep rolling on but got it terribly wrong! It can turn really quick trust me and it’s hard to jump back up to contend again under the current AFL rules/system. I guess that’s what the AFL want. I’m just basing my comments from looking at the current Cats best players, list profile and kids coming through ….. good luck.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Cats will be back fairly soon. Their unique go home factor will mean they'll probably always be a destination club, highly respected coach and great list management team. Probably need to hit the draft for 2-3 years though.

I admire your optimism but it'll be a long road back unfortunately.

 

[PhatBoy]

What that Bruhn is your Ablett replacement?

And who would Bruhn keep out at Hawthorn …….. Newk, Day, Worps, Weddle, Nash, Ward …….. ? Bruhn is playing 50 games next week and hasn’t show anything special!!!! So many other young mids at other clubs are so much better.

No, the notion that a player who, while not a superstar, has been easily in our best 10-11 players across most of the season particularly the latter two thirds, would not get picked in a 22 man side for the teams at the bottom.

It was a dumb comment.

And yeah, the Ablett comment is legitimate when you consider how ordinary his career had been up until that point. You could point to 100+ players right now in the competition who have barely caused a ripple in their careers to date, and their output would be the same as what Ablett’s was prior to 2007.

Wtf do you think it was that made us suddenly virtually unbeatable? A series of Face/Off style operations where we just got existing Brownlow medalists and All Australians to disguise themselves as the mediocre players we’d used in prior years?

It was hitherto mediocre players suddenly working it out.

It’s not like it hasn’t happened hundreds of times previously.

The whole ‘hahaha this young guy is absolute garbage and will never amount to anything’ schtick is the work of a pillock: at best you are proven right and everyone says ‘wow you predicted a mediocre player would be mediocre.’ At worst they become a gun and you look like a moron.

 

[GeTrain]

I admire your optimism but it'll be a long road back unfortunately.

The reason I think it'll be a quick rebound is the list management team was already planning for the future last off season. They didn't do what Hawks (Mitchell & JOM), Eagles (Kelly) or Tigers (Taranto & Hopper) did and try to restock and go again.

 

[My Tilly]

Grundy would be a great get for them. Just ruck him all day and thats it.

Conway will be a better ruckman than what Grudny would be next season so no, we do not need Grundy.
If it's as a backup. Just give Stanley another year as the backup but Grundy is a spent force and he thinks too highly of himself by all accounts.

 

[matey]

No, the notion that a player who, while not a superstar, has been easily in our best 10-11 players across most of the season particularly the latter two thirds, would not get picked in a 22 man side for the teams at the bottom.

It was a dumb comment.

And yeah, the Ablett comment is legitimate

So my comment that Bruhn wouldn’t be playing seniors at the Hawks is a dumb comment (given those that he would be sitting behind irrespective of ladder position) but you saying that Bruhn = Ablett as a replacement is legitimate. Ok no worries.

Correct me if I’m wrong but from memory didn’t the seniors at the time eyeball Ablett and told him that he wasn’t working hard enough off field and that was the defining moment that made him click put his head down and then he exploded as a player. I don’t think Bruhn’s problem is working hard enough!

 

[PhatBoy]

So my comment that Bruhn wouldn’t be playing seniors at the Hawks is a dumb comment (given those that he would sitting behind irrespective of ladder position) but you saying that Bruhn = Ablett as a replacement is legitimate. Ok no worries.

Correct me if I’m wrong but from memory didn’t the seniors at the time eyeball Ablett and told him that he wasn’t working hard enough off field and that was the defining moment that made him click put his head down and then he exploded as a player. I don’t think Bruhn’s problem is working hard enough!

1. I didn’t say Bruhn = Ablett.

f*** me dead. Learn who you are responding to. I said that there should really be nothing wrong with drawing a comparison given that at the same stage of their career if anything Bruhn has probably been slightly better. Doesn’t mean he’s going to dominate the comp. As Ablett showed, it doesn’t mean he can’t, either.

2. And yeah, he probably would get a game at Hawthorn even allowing for their deliberate and specific selection approach. Would he be first picked or something? Probably not. You don’t have to be to get a game. You only have to be among the 22 that do get picked.


Learn the difference between ‘not being awesome but still an AFL standard player’ and ‘being below the level of an AFL standard player.’

 

[Footy Smarts]

Cats will be back fairly soon. Their unique go home factor will mean they'll probably always be a destination club, highly respected coach and great list management team. Probably need to hit the draft for 2-3 years though.

I think opposition fans have missed that we've actually hit the draft pretty hard the last few years. Maybe because we got Bruhn and Henry via trade but if you look at the respective drafts and only include the guys in our best 22 you've got

2019 draft - SDK and Close
2020 draft - Holmes, Bruhn and O Henry

Then from the last 2 drafts you've got the following that the club has been very public in their excitement about

2021 draft - Knevitt, Conway and Dempsey
2022 draft - Clark

There are number of other speculative types (Neale, Willis, Kroger, Foster, etc) who were mid range picks that might make the grade in time.

It's not an obviously great drafting period yet (although it could prove to be) but even if you "hit the draft" you're no guarantee of producing a hit rate better than that.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Have a look at how he was tracking before a seemingly innocuous contested mark ruined his season against Port Adelaide.
Averaging 24.5 disposals, 7 clearances, 7 inside 50's, 1.7 goal assists and 0.6 goals himself.

The moment he broke his ribs and punctured a lung, his output dropped away.
And some may say he would have regressed throughout the year anyway but look back to the second half of last year, he was in career-best form (or thereabouts at least).

Bone density and lung capacity weakens when you're approaching old age

 

[Roby]

What that Bruhn is your Ablett replacement?

And who would Bruhn keep out at Hawthorn …….. Newk, Day, Worps, Weddle, Nash, Ward …….. ? Bruhn is playing 50 games next week and hasn’t show anything special!!!! So many other young mids at other clubs are so much better.

You're responding to someone who has no clue.

 

[Roby]

The same was said of Ablett at the same age.

Oh Bruhn is going to be Ablett now, this is good.