Geelong's record in finals under Chris Scott

[PhatBoy]

Yes that’s correct he’s a great coach for winning 2 flags and that is above average for the reasons you said.

However the confusion here is the thread topic. This thread is not Scott’s overall record, which is exceptional for winning 2 flags. It’s just his finals record which is subpar which should have gotten him another 1-2 from his finals placements.

I think some cats supporters are getting offended first and thinking later probably cause it’s me of all people saying it. I’m not having a dig and they keep thinking I am.


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No, it isn’t. That’s not how football works and if you actually opening yourself up to other people’s logic rather than just ‘I’m right come hell or high water’ you will work this out.

If a team finishes 4th every year for a decade, and their finals results are dictated by ladder position (ie. higher ranked team is considered ‘favourite’) then they will lose 66 per cent of matches, getting knocked out in the preliminary final every year, while a team who finishes 6th and gets knocked out on semi-final weekend will boast a 50 per cent record for the decade.

The coach with the ‘sub par’ 33 per cent record in this instance is actually coaching his team in finals to exactly where they SHOULD be finishing each year.

It’s not rocket science but you keep try to make out like it is.

Forgetting mathematical formulae for a second, and yes there are a couple of seasons - 2014 is the standout and 2016 wasn’t much better - where we were really really ordinary across two finals in each season.

Any coach who makes 11 finals campaigns will have poor ones.

Hardwick going out in week one three years in a row, once against the team who finished ninth in one instance, for example.

On the flip side Scott beat a side that no other coach could beat in 2011. He overachieved.
In 2020 he got a side from fourth into the grand final. Ladder position should have indicated that we never made it that far.

So yes there are years on both sides of the equation where he has exceeded or missed what ‘should’ have happened.

 

[Shadow89]

Just give him what he wants, lol.

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

is a shit coach who underperformed because...reasons

Damien Hardwick is the most amazing coach in history, and no other coach can match him, because...reasons

/endthread

 

[Falcon3518]

No, it isn’t. That’s not how football works and if you actually opening yourself up to other people’s logic rather than just ‘I’m right come hell or high water’ you will work this out.

If a team finishes 4th every year for a decade, and their finals results are dictated by ladder position (ie. higher ranked team is considered ‘favourite’) then they will lose 66 per cent of matches, getting knocked out in the preliminary final every year, while a team who finishes 6th and gets knocked out on semi-final weekend will boast a 50 per cent record for the decade.

The coach with the ‘sub par’ 33 per cent record in this instance is actually coaching his team in finals to exactly where they SHOULD be finishing each year.

It’s not rocket science but you keep try to make out like it is.

Forgetting mathematical formulae for a second, and yes there are a couple of seasons - 2014 is the standout and 2016 wasn’t much better - where we were really really ordinary across two finals in each season.

Any coach who makes 11 finals campaigns will have poor ones.

Hardwick going out in week one three years in a row, once against the team who finished ninth in one instance, for example.

On the flip side Scott beat a side that no other coach could beat in 2011. He overachieved.
In 2020 he got a side from fourth into the grand final. Ladder position should have indicated that we never made it that far.

So yes there are years on both sides of the equation where he has exceeded or missed what ‘should’ have happened.

Jesus mate, you say it’s not rocket science then proceed to right a whole essay explaining it. I just complemented your coach in a simple way ffs and you still don’t get it, what is the deal with you people. Anyway I’m off, you are making me physically ill. This is yet another thread you’ve policed and driven people away. Even other Geelong supporters are so sick of it one of them made a thread about how he can’t stand his own supporters. Look in the mirror.


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[Falcon3518]

Just give him what he wants, lol.

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

is a s**t coach who underperformed because...reasons

Damien Hardwick is the most amazing coach in history, and no other coach can match him, because...reasons

/endthread

I just BLOODY COMPLEMENTED YOUR COACH


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[PhatBoy]

Jesus mate, you say it’s not rocket science then proceed to right a whole essay explaining it. I just complemented your coach in a simple way ffs and you still don’t get it, what is the deal with you people. Anyway I’m off, you are making me physically ill. This is yet another thread you’ve policed and driven people away. Even other Geelong supporters are so sick of it one of them made a thread about how he can’t stand his own supporters. Look in the mirror.


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Having basic statistical and logistical formulae presented to you is making you physically ill….. ok.

Mate if you can’t handle someone giving a fairly simple explanation of why your logic falls over, don’t engage in the discussion in the first place.

Having to read a few paragraphs to get the gist of what someone is saying is hardly what I’d call a challenge

 

[Shadow89]

I just BLOODY COMPLEMENTED YOUR COACH


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*Backhand compliment.

I know it's tough for you to see the difference, but saying 'he's great and won 2 flags, but statistics say he should have won more, so therefore he's not that great ', is basically a backhand compliment.

It's alright, I couldn't care less. You just don't seem to tolerate anyone else's opinions or thoughts, so I thought it would just be easier to tell you what you want to hear instead of people banging their against a brick wall, trying to get you to consider their point of view.

Pointless thread now, so see ya.

 

[Sky]

Yes that’s correct he’s a great coach for winning 2 flags and that is above average for the reasons you said.

However the confusion here is the thread topic. This thread is not Scott’s overall record, which is exceptional for winning 2 flags. It’s just his finals record which is subpar which should have gotten him another 1-2 from his finals placements.

I think some cats supporters are getting offended first and thinking later probably cause it’s me of all people saying it. I’m not having a dig and they keep thinking I am.


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We should start counting his finals record as a Brisbane player in the tally. It’s only fair.

12-4 as player, 2 premierships
13-15 as coach, 2 premierships
25-19 and 4 flags screams success

 

[Fadge]

Wtf?

You're saying his 'par' is 3.25 on the basis of Geelong's Grand Final and Preliminary Finals appearances over Scott's tenure.

Using your formula against accurate data, it is actually 2.75:
Grand Finals: 3/2=1.5
Prelims: 5/4=1.25
1.5+1.25=2.75

What if he only made 2 Grand Finals and won them, and had straight sets exits every other year?

Using your formula he would have had 2 flags (against a par of 1) and therefore overperformed by a magnitude of 200%

 

[Sky]

I just BLOODY COMPLEMENTED YOUR COACH


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I have a question just for you.

Chris Scott’s brother, Brad, wasn’t as lucky and coached North Melbourne. A club throughout both of our lifetimes has always been average at best. From memory he never took their subpar squad to a top four finish in a home and away season however still took them to two preliminary finals. At the end of the day it means he still took a poor list and finished top four twice.

North Melbourne is a club that has repeatedly struggled to attract big name players in the 2000’s so how could Brad Scott have done any better?

Do you think Brad is a bad coach? I don’t.

 

[Saint]

Why is it the great coaches have a finals win percentage close to or greater than their home and away win percentage, yet Chris Scott has a large gap between his home and away win percentage, and his finals win percentage?

Mick Malthouse: 57% home/away, 54% finals.
Mark Thompson: 62% home/away, 58% finals.
Alastair Clarkson: 59% home/away, 62% finals.
Damien Hardwick: 57% home/away, 63% finals.
Leigh Matthews: 58% home/away, 65% finals.
Malcolm Blight: 55% home/away, 65% finals.
Denis Pagan: 50% home/away, 64% finals.

Interesting to know you rate Paul Roos ahead of Mark Thompson.

Also, I personally have Paul Roos on par with Mark Williams, even though for some reason, Roos is rated much higher than Williams in the media.

Then again, the media seem to rate Ken Hinkley, who is not only 2x AFLPA coach of the year, but is also highly rated by Port supporters.

It's pretty obvious isn't it?

By the time Chris Scott is sacked, he will have had a few lean years and therefore his home/away finals record will come down.

Chris Scott's H&A record is at 70%, if that were replicated in finals, they'd win the flag every year. If you have a 70% w/L, you make the QF every year. To maintain a 70% finals record, you'd have to win 2/3 finals or better every year. That's making the granny every year. You're essentially asking for a near-perfect Prelim finals record to be achieved.

You want Scott to have the best finals record ever, and anything less means he's not a great coach? Best ever or nothing?

 

[My Tilly]

*Backhand compliment.

I know it's tough for you to see the difference, but saying 'he's great and won 2 flags, but statistics say he should have won more, so therefore he's not that great ', is basically a backhand compliment.

It's alright, I couldn't care less. You just don't seem to tolerate anyone else's opinions or thoughts, so I thought it would just be easier to tell you what you want to hear instead of people banging their against a brick wall, trying to get you to consider their point of view.

Pointless thread now, so see ya.

That last sentence is very true.

 

[maskmcgee]

So was 2022 the aberration?

 

[Big_Birdy]

Team with the biggest leg up in league gets found out more often that not when it’s time to face the quality.

Shouldn’t be controversial

 

[NetworkNerd]

So was 2022 the aberration?

2022 they were the best team by the length of the Flemington straight. Every other year they have been back in the pack and always seem to miss out on punching above their weight and nabbing a flag.

But with Bailey Smith next year, they should be up there

 

[deck]

Team with the biggest leg in league gets found out more often that not when it’s time to face the quality.

Shouldn’t be controversial

They made it to the Prelim and lost by 10 points. Maybe you could argue that if they were smashed and went out in straight sets.

 

[Kapow!!!]

2022 they were the best team by the length of the Flemington straight. Every other year they have been back in the pack and always seem to miss out on punching above their weight and nabbing a flag.

But with Bailey Smith next year, they should be up there

This. Other than 2022 I don't think they've really been the best side/had the best list since 2011. You could argue 2022 they didn't either but we're very well drilled and experienced with the rest of the previous best lists aging backwards that year.

Finals are designed to give you a 45-55% winning record over a long sample size anyway (unless you go on a St George style dynasty and basically go a decade of winning flags). Hitting his current mark suggests Geelong tend to win at least 1 final most years which is a pretty impressive feat when you don't have the best list in the competition and never bottom out.

 

[Big_Birdy]

They made it to the Prelim and lost by 10 points. Maybe you could argue that if they were smashed and went out in straight sets.

That’s one year. Honestly they were smashed last night but got some very, very lucky goals. Happy to be shown a single goal of theirs which you look back and say “that was good football”.

9 prelim losses in 20 years speaks for itself. As does the straight sets record.

Make it because of draw and get found out time and time again. Yet lauded as this wonder club.

 

[Freomaniac]

So was 2022 the aberration?

Nope.... The cats 2023 season was an abbreviation.

That 2023 cats side got 12th spot with 10 wins, 12 losses and a draw.

Tightness of the ladder. Cats lost 3 or 4 close games as season too.

 

[azyboy]

That’s one year. Honestly they were smashed last night but got some very, very lucky goals. Happy to be shown a single goal of theirs which you look back and say “that was good football”.

9 prelim losses in 20 years speaks for itself. As does the straight sets record.

Make it because of draw and get found out time and time again. Yet lauded as this wonder club.

They weren’t ‘smashed’ last night. What game were you watching? ‘Smashed’ teams don’t hit the front with 3 mins left on the clock.
And ‘very, very lucky goals’? Being in the right spots at the right time? They also missed a number of sodas as well to be honest.
‘Lauded as a wonder club’.
Absolutely they are. The AFL is designed to drive equalisation. The fact that they haven’t bottomed out and have only missed the finals twice in 20 years is quite remarkable - a fact that could well be lauded. This coupled with a strong culture, a stable and silent administration, a financially sound balance sheet, excellent recruitment and development (despite limited high draft picks) and the ability to attract other talent probably does justify the plaudits.
Successful club. Cue people who want to take it down.

 

[JackFlash]

They made some selection errors, if they had won we'd be singing their praises. I suppose you could say they have been preliminary final chokers? Most footy fans have been envious of Geelong for years, Scott will never win the morons over.