Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[Gunf]

Perhaps true. But I also think you may need to come to terms with not getting him at a 50% discount, but more like a 15-20% discount, to use your analogy.

We certainly won't give 2 first for him, but I think the chances that we get away with this years first in isolation (~pick 17 pre bids) are also very slim.

Most of us are of the opinion that we will give up this years fist and either our second this year or second next year + some other later picks/swaps which is more than your our first this year only thought.

 

[Johanpetro]

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

So let me get this straight. Richmond call Smiths manager and ask would he consider playing at Richmond. Smith says absolutely fkkkn not. And Richmond go cool, hey Dogs we will trade 3 first rounders for Smith. Righto

 

[Mangy Carl]

No they can't

It's a false notion that a club can trade a player to a club other than that of a choice, purely because another club says they'll give a better pick instead - the AFLPA would step in before the paperwork was signed

After Hawthorn traded Croad to Fremantle back in 2021, when as Croad said, "he went in for surgery on a wrist injury at the end of the 2001 season, he went under a Hawk and woke up a Docker.", just wouldn't be permitted now days and loopholes were closed to stop clubs doing that

Rightly or wrongly, players hold the power in trades and if Smith says to the Bulldogs that his wishes are to be traded to Geelong, it's then between the two team to get their act together and work through a trade

If after a couple of days the Bulldogs turned around & said, "Oh BTW, Richmond are going to offer pick 6 for Smith, so what are you going to do to up your offer", would very quickly see any goodwill out the door and the AFLPA getting involved to support the player, which would be followed by meditation organised by the AFL

The Bulldogs have some power in the situation, but not the power to completely dictate how the trade plays out nor where Smith ends up

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

 

[Gunf]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

And the moment the Dogs did that the AFL and AFLPA would step in and demolish the Dogs for it

Plus it is Smith who would nominate which draft to go into and he would 100% pick National as it is 100% more likely to get to his club of choice.

 

[cats_09]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

Which means the Bulldogs come out looking like dicks

While Richmond then wastes a draft pick, a list spot and salary on a player who has no interest in playing for them

That threat may have worked 20 years ago when it's what Port did to Stevens, but it's simply not a feasible threat in 2024


As stated, if the Bulldogs tried that BS both the AFLPA & AFL would step in, meditation between the teams would be undertaken and a deal would be agreed it

 

[MisterMarcus]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

So instead of getting (as they see it) 80c in the dollar, the Doggies will risk giving Smith up for absolutely nothing out of pure spite.

Makes total sense to me.

 

[FootyLad0]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

Smith can nominate for National Draft instead of preseason Draft.

No list manager is going to be stupid enough to use a first rounder on a guy who doesn’t want to be there eg Luke Ball in 2010
Either a trade gets done, or he walks to National Draft and he gets where he wants to be anyway.

And Dogs don’t have a first round pick so they can’t just redraft him back out of spite.
Being petty has no benefit to the Doggies whatsoever, it is what it is.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Correct. That's why I think the Cats will happily give up, what could be pick 18-22ish this year, and hopefully pick 15+ next year, for Smith.. That's not a high price.

Like I mentioned before, in 2022 Geelong gave up picks 38,48,55 AND 2023 picks 31 and 55 for Ollie Henry, a talented but unproven mid forward.

You gotta be an undercover Western Bulldogs supporter.

If not… my mind is blown.

“hopefully” we can get a worst case scenario result lol.

 

[supahoops]

You gotta be an undercover Western Bulldogs supporter.

If not… my mind is blown.

“hopefully” we can get a worst case scenario result lol.

See above or Cleansweep with the Richmond angle being pushed.

 

[CatRiot]

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

Where does Tigers have 5-6 first rounders? Am I missing something, they have Pick 1, and then some 2nd rounders... Do you mean if they trade for later picks and use next years also?

 

[Gunf]

Where does Tigers have 5-6 first rounders? Am I missing something, they have Pick 1, and then some 2nd rounders... Do you mean if they trade for later picks and use next years also?

Everyone keeps telling me they will be trading out 3 or more players for 1 to 2 firsts each

E.g Rioli to gold coast for 2 firsts Bolton to Freo for 2 firsts and Baker to WCE for 1 or 2 firsts etc

 

[cats_09]

Where does Tigers have 5-6 first rounders? Am I missing something, they have Pick 1, and then some 2nd rounders... Do you mean if they trade for later picks and use next years also?

Richmond could end up with 4 or 5 first round picks after their own trades & losses of FAs:

• Liam Baker, likely up end up out west via a trade
• Shai Bolton, will net them at least 1 first round pick in a trade (maybe 2)
• Daniel Rioli, likely another first round pick from GC in this trade
• Jack Graham wanting out as a FA (? - can't remember on this one)

Can't remember if there's any others wanting out

 

[Grimoz]

If the rumours are true we are looking at Martin i will be shocked as we don't need small forwards and unless we are offering base wage and telling him he is backup and will play VFL 99% of the time and he is happy to do that i can't see why he would look at us instead of someone else who needs small forwards.

Preuss is way to injury prone pass

Martin isnt a small forward imo, he is a better prospect with ball in hand and on the run, would be a good half back replacement for Tuohy if he can get fit.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Unfortunately conway just looks like he’s going to be injured all the time

Yeah Nah… that’s what they said about Gawn.
Ruckman are like a fine wine .
They get better with age.
That’s why clubs like nabbing one latter in their growth once they’ve had 4-5 years in the system.

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

Yeah nah… can’t see that scenario ever playing out sorry buddy

 

[D BRIDGE]

Re: Richmond and Smith.

I think the worst thing that could happen for the Doggies is for Smith to get half-warm about going to the Tigers.

Because if the Doggies are unreasonable and unwilling to take our offer (which is their right to do) then Smith's manager can say "Sweet no worries, Bailey is happy enough to walk to Richmond in the PSD" and the Dogs get zero for him.

If the Dog's aren't gonna scratch Bailey's back and trade him to us... I doubt he will scratch theirs and make Richmond trade for him.

 

[sexyhunk]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

only thing with that is unfortunately for all clubs, the afl and player assoication have created an environment that give too much power to players and player managers.

how you think smith's manager would react if his client got put into the pre season draft. he may have 10 or so players listed at the dogs and 80 odd out at other clubs.

obviously doesnt mean geelong offering a 3 rd rounder, but can only give what they have.

also, one really important point is managers work for their clients only, shoe could be on the other foot next trade period if say a SDK want to walk to another club.

 

[moond0g]

Re: Richmond and Smith.

I think the worst thing that could happen for the Doggies is for Smith to get half-warm about going to the Tigers.

Because if the Doggies are unreasonable and unwilling to take our offer (which is their right to do) then Smith's manager can say "Sweet no worries, Bailey is happy enough to walk to Richmond in the PSD" and the Dogs get zero for him.

If the Dog's aren't gonna scratch Bailey's back and trade him to us... I doubt he will scratch theirs and make Richmond trade for him.

In that unlikely scenario though (where Smith warms to a Richmond, or st kilda/North etc.), I'd say there'd be more chance that all parties just agree to a trade, ala Mitch Clark and Fremantle/Melbourne, and we'd just miss out on him.

That said, all these scenarios are unlikely. The most likely scenario is he just nominates us and we'll find a suitable trade. One where the dogs feel they are getting unders, and some on here think we've given up a bit too much given he's uncontracted.

 

[D BRIDGE]

In that unlikely scenario though (where Smith warms to a Richmond, or st kilda/North etc.), I'd say there'd be more chance that all parties just agree to a trade, ala Mitch Clark and Fremantle/Melbourne, and we'd just miss out on him.

That said, all these scenarios are unlikely. The most likely scenario is he just nominates us and we'll find a suitable trade. One where the dogs feel they are getting unders, and some on here think we've given up a bit too much given he's uncontracted.

I agree with your second paragraph and it's probably 99% chance of happening.

I disagree with your first... I never mentioned St Kilda (only Tiges) and I said half-warm as in he clearly wants us more than Richmond but if he is half-warm on the Tiges he can easily threaten to walk to them for zero in the PSD and if it happens then he would live with that... but he wouldn't be doing the Doggies any favours if he is going to his less preferred destination.

Smith wouldn't sign off on a trade with the tiges though because his manager would be pushing until the last moment of the trade period to get Smith to his preferred destination (which we are assuming is Geelong here). There is no downside in going through to the very last moment to make or try to make the Dogs agree to the trade... because if it falls through he just walks to Richmond anyway and the Dogs take a massive loss.

So it would be trade Smith to Geelong... or Smith walks to Richmond.

Dogs can have our R1 + probably some steak knives... or zero.

The Dogs will fold every day of the week... well every last day of trade period day.

 

[sexyhunk]

I agree with your second paragraph and it's probably 99% chance of happening.

I disagree with your first... I never mentioned St Kilda (only Tiges) and I said half-warm as in he clearly wants us more than Richmond but if he is half-warm on the Tiges he can easily threaten to walk to them for zero in the PSD and if it happens then he would live with that... but he wouldn't be doing the Doggies any favours if he is going to his less preferred destination.

Smith wouldn't sign off on a trade with the tiges though because his manager would be pushing until the last moment of the trade period to get Smith to his preferred destination (which we are assuming is Geelong here). There is no downside in going through to the very last moment to make or try to make the Dogs agree to the trade... because if it falls through he just walks to Richmond anyway and the Dogs take a massive loss.

So it would be trade Smith to Geelong... or Smith walks to Richmond.

Dogs can have our R1 + probably some steak knives... or zero.

The Dogs will fold every day of the week... well every last day of trade period day.

problem with that is going to hamstring both teams from doing any deals during the window if they going the distance.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Smith is 23, with 100 games under his belt. He was pick 7 in 2018 and is a proven, line breaking GUN.
Yes, he's coming off a knee reco, that's a risk, but we know, at his best, he can be a top 20 player. And he's know where near his playing peak.


We cant get him pre-season. No chance.. Dogs wont accept picks 18ish and 36ish (our first 2 selections), that's way unders.
We dont have any trade capital, our best bet to move up the draft order is to try and trade up with a club such as Bris/GC/ESS/CARL etc who will trade out higher picks for draft points for father/sons/Academy picks. Still, its highly doubtful we have enough to get a top 10 pick.

If we cant satisfy the Doggies, they can always trade him to another side..
Richmond will have plenty of high picks to work with, and could force the Doggies hand to trade or walk Smith to the pre-season draft for nothing. St Kilda would happily pounce with pick 7..
Smith has no power in this trade, Doggies 'could' force him into a Richmond trade by threatening him they will walk him to the pre-season draft and straight into Richmond's hands anyway.

A lot of teams would happily trade those picks just to move into the top 10 of the draft, which is still just a speculative player.

2022 saw the Cats trade picks 38,48,55 AND our 2023 2nd and 4th round picks (31 and 55) ALL for pick 25, which we traded for Ollie Henry.

I wouldn't worry too much about the dogs satisfaction level on a trade involving a guy coming off an acl whose best work is now years ago.

They'll do the trade for a first and second i think

 

[Lana]

No.

But it's interesting to think he's been able to eek out a 9 year career and at various stages has been very hyped, all the while only playing 28 games. Well done to him.

I almost had as a successful career as he did, would have been cheaper too

 

[CatToTheFuture]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

Why on earth would they walk him to the draft? They're not stupid

 

[Kitcat]

I wouldn't worry too much about the dogs satisfaction level on a trade involving a guy coming off an acl whose best work is now years ago.

They'll do the trade for a first and second i think

He is also a player that the Dogs didn’t seem to fight hard to convince to stay, and a high profile player who they played away from his preferred position as they had a strong midfield. Both actions reduce their bargaining power.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

He is also a player that the Dogs didn’t seem to fight hard to convince to stay, and a high profile player who they played away from his preferred position as they had a strong midfield. Both actions reduce their bargaining power.

They have clearly moved past him with Ed Richards there. They lose nothing trading him out

 

[iameviljez]

What I meant by that is they can threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond anyway if he, and Geelong, dont play ball..

Basically, 'you're going to Richmond in the pre-season draft, or you are agreeing to be traded to Richmond, either way, its Richmond'

He would nominate for the National Draft in this case, to avoid exactly this scenario.