Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[Turbo911]

Imagine the opposition melts

In spite of the fact the majority of people are of the opinion getting him would be a mistake!

I don’t think it would be a mistake but a large risk but huge potential oayoff

A lot for the club to weigh up, I’m sure they have better intel on players than we do, & if the rumor is real

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You can’t let personal bias get in the way of this.
Do I think we should get him, on field output- yes with Melb paying some salary
Off field, heck ni
But he is still young, suffers adhd I think I have read.

Should people get a second chance, yes

I personally think it will be late 2nd with Melb paying up some salary

If a year goes by, he stays out of head lines & plays get footy - we would be sitting here going why didn’t we deal last year

Agree there are red flags, has been with current player/s & worked out. Others haven’t

Big risk but the payoff is huge but if it doesn’t, that salary becomes an albatross

The contract is so long it's a huge risk...much much bigger than the Bowes one was. So I'm not sure if I'd even be willing to pay a 2nd.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Shoot me as much as you like
But I’d take Oliver before Smith.

I want both but I’m a massive fan of Oliver.

Both Oliver and Smith in our starting 18 pushes us from just missing the 8
To making top 4 again

I feel sick just thinking about Oliver's contract

 

[Cataholic]

Ok so this talk of Smith changing his mind and wanting Hawthorn is a bit strange that it coincides with us apparently wanting Oliver, i dont believe we would be going for both nor do we have the currency, ive always said that ill believe it when i see it but this is one of those times where i genuinely am concerned that Smith is just a complete media beat up and he was never coming to us, if that eventuates ill pretty much leave bigfooty for good after whats been written here by some people stating that its a done deal etc. This shit happened with Hopper (worked out well) and it was at the time a massive let down, im extremely pumped to get Smith into this team, some people are extremely hard on him because he shows off his looks but he also trains like a MF and will be a good example for kids coming through, he is exactly what we need. I sincerely hope we havent been duped here.

PS. Dont want Oliver.

The Hawthorn talk re: Smith simply came from some of their fans chatting amongst themselves.... there's no definitive evidence to support it at this point.

And we can quite possibly do both deals, given the apparent turn of events within the MFC. If it's true they can't demand much, which plays into our hands.

A lot to play out though.

 

[Cataholic]

I feel sick just thinking about Oliver's contract

Wells & Mackie are smart negotiators.

 

[dangerwood]

Ok so this talk of Smith changing his mind and wanting Hawthorn is a bit strange that it coincides with us apparently wanting Oliver, i dont believe we would be going for both nor do we have the currency, ive always said that ill believe it when i see it but this is one of those times where i genuinely am concerned that Smith is just a complete media beat up and he was never coming to us, if that eventuates ill pretty much leave bigfooty for good after whats been written here by some people stating that its a done deal etc. This shit happened with Hopper (worked out well) and it was at the time a massive let down, im extremely pumped to get Smith into this team, some people are extremely hard on him because he shows off his looks but he also trains like a MF and will be a good example for kids coming through, he is exactly what we need. I sincerely hope we havent been duped here.

PS. Dont want Oliver.

There's no beat up, Geelong are into Smith and have been for a long time. He also wants to come to Geelong (well at last I heard) but it isn't done until the trade is done. Doesn't mean the info was incorrect all along.
Talk about Oliver isn't new and it was always going to pop up again near trade week.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Way way way too much smoke for there to be no fire Re: Geelong/Smith.

 

[strauchnyy]

R1 next year:

Fb. Stewart. SDK. Henry
Hb. Humphries. Blicavs. Zuthrie
C. Holmes. Oliver. Dempsey
Hf. Miers. Cameron. Mannagh
Ff. Stengel. Neale. Henry
Foll. Conway. Smith. Dangerfield
Int. Close. Bruhn. Bowes. Guthrie
Sub. Mullin

Emg. Kolo. Stanley. Martin

Depth: Duncan. Clark. Atkins. COS. O’Connor

 

[Turbo911]

The contract is so long it's a huge risk...much much bigger than the Bowes one was. So I'm not sure if I'd even be willing to pay a 2nd.

The salary cap will rise, so if melb pay $300k. It a couple of years, $700k would probably be avg wage for an afl player
The risk is more will he be dedicated both on & off field

A pick in the 30 ish range would be worth the risk imo

Will wait to see if this kindling is about to flame up or fizzle out

The thought of a both healthy, fit & firing Oliver & Smith has to be a bit appealing ….(the risk though ….)

 

[frggr]

Oliver couldn't be a worse gamble than Jack Steven

9

Jack Steven

Age

34

Ht

180cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

12.7

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

14.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

4star

CL

2.5

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

0.8

3star

was (from a 'cultural' perspective, anyway)

 

[Turbo911]

Oliver couldn't be a worse gamble than Jack Steven was.

Could as good or better than stengle or could be a higher paid fail (maybe not quite as bad) as Stevens

That’s the range of risk vs reward right there though

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The salary cap will rise, so if melb pay $300k. It a couple of years, $700k would probably be avg wage for an afl player
The risk is more will he be dedicated both on & off field

A pick in the 30 ish range would be worth the risk imo

Will wait to see if this kindling is about to flame up or fizzle out

The thought of a both healthy, fit & firing Oliver & Smith has to be a bit appealing ….(the risk though ….)

Rumour was Oliver's contract is indexing with the increases so would be approx 1.3m pa

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Oliver couldn't be a worse gamble than Jack Steven was (from a 'cultural' perspective, anyway)

His contract can

 

[frggr]

His contract can

Yeah, but i reckon that's a storm that can be weathered without too much fuss.

 

[Turbo911]

Rumour was Oliver's contract is indexing with the increases so would be approx 1.3m pa

That is concerning if that is the case

Could we smooth the payments similar to Bowes or stuck with the original contract terms?

 

[cats_09]

Potential exodus from Melbourne?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah, but i reckon that's a storm that can be weathered without too much fuss.

I dunno, 8% of the cap until the 2016 draft cohort starts looking at retirement seems like it would significantly impact our future trading options.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That is concerning if that is the case

Could we smooth the payments similar to Bowes or stuck with the original contract terms?

Not really, the contract basically runs the length of this useful career

 

[cats_09]

That is concerning if that is the case

Could we smooth the payments similar to Bowes or stuck with the original contract terms?

He turned 27 in July, and with him still having 6 years to run on his current deal, it could be hard to try and smooth the payments with an extension as you’re then getting into a contract length of 7 or 8 years which would be crazy & irresponsible - or at least that’s how I feel in regards to those super long contracts

 

[Turbo911]

Not really, the contract basically runs the length of this useful career

Paying $1 mil (even with melb paying some) for a player at the end of that term could be a deal breaker
Unless we are all for the now & worry about the future later on type of me mentality but that would go against what we have done in the past

 

[Turbo911]

He turned 27 in July, and with him still having 6 years to run on his current deal, it could be hard to try and smooth the payments with an extension as you’re then getting into a contract length of 7 or 8 years which would be crazy & irresponsible - or at least that’s how I feel in regards to those super long contracts

Agree with you there

Unless it was Gary jnr

 

[Kobe Gryant]

That is concerning if that is the case

Could we smooth the payments similar to Bowes or stuck with the original contract terms?

The only likely way to get around it is Melbourne pay part of the contract.

Due to the length, there's not much we can do ourselves there unless Clarry needlessly re-structures the contract to play for less money.

Bowes was a 800k for two years, which we smoothed out over four years.

Clarry's already on a 6 year deal, so there's not much smoothing out for us to do.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I dunno, 8% of the cap until the 2016 draft cohort starts looking at retirement seems like it would significantly impact our future trading options.

There's an argument though that we have to pay 90% of the cap anyway.

I'd still be very wary of it too, and would want Melbourne paying some of it...but it's not like we can just save money for a rainy day here.

It's going somewhere in 2025. Is it better off going to a fully fit Oliver, or paid across 10 fringe players who don't really deserve it?

 

[bellpark]

R1 next year:

Fb. Stewart. SDK. Henry
Hb. Humphries. Blicavs. Zuthrie
C. Holmes. Oliver. Dempsey
Hf. Miers. Cameron. Mannagh
Ff. Stengel. Neale. Henry
Foll. Conway. Smith. Dangerfield
Int. Close. Bruhn. Bowes. Guthrie
Sub. Mullin

Emg. Kolo. Stanley. Martin

Depth: Duncan. Clark. Atkins. COS. O’Connor

Conway can’t get on the park, his body is not up to the constant work/rucking. SDK the ruck option with COS in at FB

 

[And_ROOS]

R1 next year:

Fb. Stewart. SDK. Henry
Hb. Humphries. Blicavs. Zuthrie
C. Holmes. Oliver. Dempsey
Hf. Miers. Cameron. Mannagh
Ff. Stengel. Neale. Henry
Foll. Conway. Smith. Dangerfield
Int. Close. Bruhn. Bowes. Guthrie
Sub. Mullin

Emg. Kolo. Stanley. Martin

Depth: Duncan. Clark. Atkins. COS. O’Connor

I am going to assume everyone is fit based on your selections.
1. Kolo won't be emergency, our defence was at its best this season with Kolo/Blicavs/JHenry in the second half of the year. I hope they stick with Blitz back there but if anyone is likely to be changed out of defence its him.
2. Kolo takes SDKs spot, and SDK likely either starts ruck with Conway bench or Conway rucks with SDK on the bench.
3. Stewarts best form this year was in midfield. Even if we get Smith and Oliver he isn't the same type of mid so there is a chance they keep him there, so I guess it depends on which group he spends preseason with/PS matches.
4. Atkins would be in the team ahead Bowes because of the fact he is a defensive, tackling midfielder and the others aren't, the midfield still needs balance.
5. Based on this season and his age/injury history the last 2 seasons I would expect we would see Mullin on the bench and CGuthrie as sub. Mullin doesn't get enough of the ball to be an effective sub.

But theres zero chance if fit Kolo is emergency unless his form plummets.