Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[Kobe Gryant]

There's enough names going out I would offer contracts to Duncan, Willis, Bews and Jeka from your delistings.

Otherwise you're just adding a bunch of last pick in the draft types Who are almost certainly adding less than the those guys.

It's just not feasible, it's why the 'gut the list' narrative in years gone by doesn't work.

We might get one Humphries if we're lucky, or a Dempsey if we're uber lucky (already pushing it getting two of those guys in 3 years)

Odds are though, we're picking up another Jarvis, Kennerley, Fort, & Tarca haul...and we all know how that worked out.

Some clubs can do it. If you've got two high firsts and split them for say 4 picks in the top 30 then go for your life...but that's not our reality.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

11 out the door.

Who are the 11 you're replacing them with? Our squad depth looks terrible with the changes you made. At best we'll get two from FA/trades, so then you're looking at 9 from the draft. So splitting 4 picks into 9 or something? Which becomes less if we have to use pick(s) for Smith etc.

7 is palatable. 11 or more is extreme.

We've churned 11 plenty of times but I think we've always done it with best 22 trade ins coming in.

If you're bring in draftees it only takes your first 2 picks to get to pick 50+ as the next selection.

 

[Mr Meow]

We've churned 11 plenty of times but I think we've always done it with best 22 trade ins coming in.

If you're bring in draftees it only takes your first 2 picks to get to pick 50+ as the next selection.

I still think you want a couple like Duncan and Rohan to be maintained in similar use of Tuohy, Bews and Hawkins this season. Might be best 23, might be pushed out, but we had a good injury run this year and in 2025 that possibly won't be the case. You need some semi reliable players who can give you 10 solid games when needed.

Rohan and Jeka would be useful enough depth just in case a tall or two goes down at either end of the ground.

If Duncan is being phased out, the same is true if Zuthrie, Humphries or Stewart miss games.

 

[crocsta]

Both outside chance to make it but Willis has showed more potential than Foster over the last two years.

I hope we pick up Pike from the VFL team.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Firstly, if you think mine was an emotional response you clearly haven’t dealt with many emotional people.

I completely agree that you need to take into consideration current circumstances when assessing the risk in a player. We do not have all info about players situation, but Here is what we know about the current circumstances of Oliver and Petracca:

• Oliver is way out of shape, has had 2 very poor seasons on field and has clear issues off the field. I will refrain from commenting on the extent of how bad his off-field behaviour has been (I don’t wish to comment on unconfirmed innuendo), but let’s just say that there is so much smoke around Oliver that we could be looking at a forest fire. There is no evidence to suggest that he has turned any of these issues around.
• Petracca has had a traumatic on field incident that was handled very poorly by his club. He is rightly pissed off about this and has aired his grievances with his club. He is also a model citizen for his club, is somewhat of a spokesperson for his playing group, has been in elite physical condition for as many years as anyone would care to remember and has been an elite player as recently as this season. The only question about him is if the injury he suffered this year will affect his future performance. But all indications are that his professionalism will give him a very high likelihood of getting back to elite level.

If you think that the risk level associated with these two players is comparable then more power to you. You are entitled to that opinion, but I just hope that you aren’t making decisions for the club that I support.

Without going into details, risk management and pricing of risk is something that I have to do every day. You gather as much information as possible, do your research and then apply logic to make a decision on whether to accept the risk or not. You nearly always have to make this decision on incomplete set of data. Often, the decision comes down to the following questions:
- if you accept the risk and then it all goes pear shaped, could you live with your decision or would you want to punch yourself in the face for being such a moron? Could you justify the decision in hindsight even if the deal goes badly because the decision making process was sound?

If we took a risk on Petracca based on the info to hand, I could live with that decision if it didn’t work out great.

If we took a risk on Oliver based on the info to hand and it turned out badly, the hindsight review would firmly be in “punch yourself in the face” territory.

I will refrain to give my view on smith because that topic has been done to death.

I don't want to look to hard into amateur psychology or anything here but do you think your background gives you a bias towards safe options?

 

[OzeSparky]

Win lose or draw it would be au revoir to the following in 2025 for mine-

Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Duncan, Rohan, Murdoch, Jeka, Hardie, Parfitt, Willis & Bews - too old, limited, hot and cold or far back in the queue.

Trained up for Round 1 -
Mullin Henry Zuthrie
Stewart Blicavs Humphries
Holmes Smith Dempsey
SDK Bruhn Clark
Mannagh Cameron Close
Miers Neale Stengle

Henry Bowes Atkins Cuthrie

Danger the first specialist sub/special comments man.

In the wings - Atkins Kolo MOC
Hopefully knocking the door down - Conway COS
Still hold hope for Knevitt, Clohesy

I can see Duncan playing on (even though he is slow) and maybe willis sneaking another year. But the rest I agree will be cut.

 

[supahoops]

11 out the door.

Who are the 11 you're replacing them with? Our squad depth looks terrible with the changes you made. At best we'll get two from FA/trades, so then you're looking at 9 from the draft. So splitting 4 picks into 9 or something? Which becomes less if we have to use pick(s) for Smith etc.

7 is palatable. 11 or more is extreme.

I’d rather look at the next Humphries or Dempsey in hope and ride our squad depth luck, I don’t think any of those players are going to move the needle if injuries hit, a guy like Wiltshire I’d rather see get a few games than a year older and spasmodic Rohan. Neale>Hawkins Conway>Stanley although I’d be ok with Rhys one more year Humphries>Duncan Cuthrie>Tuohy Clohesy>Parfitt Mullin>Bews and Jeka Willis Murdoch Hardie just don’t look up to it.

 

[Hinkley29]

I don't want to look to hard into amateur psychology or anything here but do you think your background gives you a bias towards safe options?

To the contrary. It actually makes me more comfortable to take risk, as long as it priced appropriately.

It does however make me wary of risky options if the downside outweighs the price.

It is a good observation that you make, and a very appropriate question to ask.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Things can change quickly with player improvements.

We have a very young group of midfielders.

What if max holmes takes the leap next year and becomes a bonafide A grade elite midfielder?? What if Clark becomes a 20 touch a game contested midfielder ?? What if knevitt does the same??

What if bruhn goes to the next level and becomes a A grade contested bull??

A lot of potential improvements, and when you think about it, the losses of the older blokes have already probably occurred this season.

Duncan is already fallen off a cliff, dangerfield can only play a good quarter of footy a game then fades, he is a 15-20 touch impact player on and off.

Blicavs is struggling, and tuohy is only playing half the games and is already being phased out and replaced by Humphries.

Stewart has declined a bit already but will probably still be a good player for a couple more years chugging along.

With smith in the team in 25 and the scope for a huge portion of our team to improve given how young they are, I see a lot of excitement.

IF that happens then great. Add that to a couple others coming in then we'll have a much better midfield, but that's an IF and has no certainty to it.

I'd still be looking for talent to add to the midfield mix, and it seems we're trying to do it with Smith.

 

[Klink]

I was driving home from work tonight and Sam Edmund on SEN was saying Smith is a near certainty to land at Geelong. He also said he absolutely has it on good authority he has purchased property on the surf coast. He said he was very confident that has occurred.

He did acknowledge a lot of these property rumours at this time of year are absolute garbage, and had a laugh about it, but was very confident Smith had brought property here and it is widely acknowleged he's Geelong bound in the industry. He said his source regarding the property is very reliable.

He said Hawks haven't pulled out as some have speculated, but clearly have greater list management needs and priorities.

Take it with a grain of salt - just passing on what he said.

Personally, I think Edmund is one of the better ones, no doubt others will disagree.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’d rather look at the next Humphries or Dempsey in hope and ride our squad depth luck, I don’t think any of those players are going to move the needle if injuries hit, a guy like Wiltshire I’d rather see get a few games than a year older and spasmodic Rohan. Neale>Hawkins Conway>Stanley although I’d be ok with Rhys one more year Humphries>Duncan Cuthrie>Tuohy Clohesy>Parfitt Mullin>Bews and Jeka Willis Murdoch Hardie just don’t look up to it.

And I'd say 6 or 7 newbies is enough to cover those options.

It's very rare for a side to bring in 11 or 12 new players unless a handful were already established at other clubs.

Removing 7 players, which includes 4 or 5 veterans, is already effectively gutting the list. Adding a few more is just going into overkill for the sake of it.

 

[Jumping Jack]

I was driving home from work tonight and Sam Edmund on SEN was saying Smith is a near certainty to land at Geelong. He also said he absolutely has it on good authority he has purchased property on the surf coast. He said he was very confident that has occurred.

He did acknowledge a lot of these property rumours at this time of year are absolute garbage, and had a laugh about it, but was very confident Smith had brought property here and it is widely acknowleged he's Geelong bound in the industry. He said his source regarding the property is very reliable.

He said Hawks haven't pulled out as some have speculated, but clearly have greater list management needs and priorities.

Take it with a grain of salt - just passing on what he said.

Personally, I think Edmund is one of the better ones, no doubt others will disagree.

Well Edmund is “close” but not 100% correct.

Property has not been bought. Made an offer and currently negotiating. And this I know.


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[Cataholic]

Well Edmund is “close” but not 100% correct.

Property has not been bought. Made an offer and currently negotiating. And this I know.


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Question is whether he's buying a primary place of residence, or an investment property.

 

[Lana]

Young by proxy.

Of course we're going to have some old players still in the side...but it's a completely different scenario to what we've seen in years gone by.

For instance:

Team one has an average age of 27, but they're heavily reliant on their older players, which has been the Geelong story for over a decade.

Team two also has a high average age, but their older players for the most part aren't playing key roles in the side.

We've seen that this year alone. It's why averages are skewed and often inaccurate to what's truly going on.

PFD (who's missed games) Cameron, & Stewart have absolutely been integral in most of our quality football this year. No arguments there.

Everyone else who's considered 'old' is pretty hard to make a case for. A game here, a quarter there...but they haven't been the drivers.

Next year that will only garner move truth as the transition hopefully continues.

I'm much more worried about who's performing, rather than the average age on paper. Most supporters should be.

An example of the opposite last year would be Adelaide. A young side on paper, but the quality of their football was almost solely attributed to their older players. Nobody wants that.

Median, average, IQR any way you spin it we'll be old relative to the competition and history. Only 7 times has a team had an average age over 27, 4 of them are our last 4 years, Our current year is 8th, and will likely just fall short of the number 27. Our best players are still our older ones, Cameron and Stewart already hit a wall this year which is why they're being thrown around, having trouble playing their old way the MC finds a new way for them to still be effective. Dangerfield doesn't have too many "Danger" quarters anymore, we holding out for his scraps, which works for us when he does, but only he really does it.

We play this outside transition game cause we can't go contest to contest, 34 year old Tuohy and Duncan can still contribute with this style of play. To play a more well rounded contest style requires a certain list construction. He haven't had that type of currency in nearly a quarter of century. 06 was a miracle, Danger joining us as he hit his peak was another. You get the right guy they can prop your midfield up for 15 years.

We have a solid skeleton, a high floor. But we need star power. We're losing it from the top faster than we're replenishing it.

Of course though, we could just become West Coast, which you predicted last year, which were the exact kind of comments I was getting at in the OP.

We can thank Chris Scott for that, he can polish a turd like no one else has ever done before. This year was a grind. Fixture helped somewhat. I don't think we've played any of the top 5 twice. I hope September isn't too ugly, this run deserves better.

I still hold that ground, wasn't a one and done prediction. Can be avoided, Mackie and Wells have to pull something out of their butt. Round 1 next year who is our number 1 ruck? Who is our best inside midfielder? If the answer to both is currently on our list I don't think we'll have a fun year. I certainly wouldn't be trading our future 1st.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Question is whether he's buying a primary place of residence, or an investment property.

PPR

What he’s trying to buy is not an investment. Lifestyle property is the best description.


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[Goggin Our Best]

Well Edmund is “close” but not 100% correct.

Property has not been bought. Made an offer and currently negotiating. And this I know.


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Yes and Josh Caddy bought a house in Geelong and 3 weeks later he was at Punt Rd

 

[FishGutz]

Firstly, if you think mine was an emotional response you clearly haven’t dealt with many emotional people.

I completely agree that you need to take into consideration current circumstances when assessing the risk in a player. We do not have all info about players situation, but Here is what we know about the current circumstances of Oliver and Petracca:

• Oliver is way out of shape, has had 2 very poor seasons on field and has clear issues off the field. I will refrain from commenting on the extent of how bad his off-field behaviour has been (I don’t wish to comment on unconfirmed innuendo), but let’s just say that there is so much smoke around Oliver that we could be looking at a forest fire. There is no evidence to suggest that he has turned any of these issues around.
• Petracca has had a traumatic on field incident that was handled very poorly by his club. He is rightly pissed off about this and has aired his grievances with his club. He is also a model citizen for his club, is somewhat of a spokesperson for his playing group, has been in elite physical condition for as many years as anyone would care to remember and has been an elite player as recently as this season. The only question about him is if the injury he suffered this year will affect his future performance. But all indications are that his professionalism will give him a very high likelihood of getting back to elite level.

If you think that the risk level associated with these two players is comparable then more power to you. You are entitled to that opinion, but I just hope that you aren’t making decisions for the club that I support.

Without going into details, risk management and pricing of risk is something that I have to do every day. You gather as much information as possible, do your research and then apply logic to make a decision on whether to accept the risk or not. You nearly always have to make this decision on incomplete set of data. Often, the decision comes down to the following questions:
- if you accept the risk and then it all goes pear shaped, could you live with your decision or would you want to punch yourself in the face for being such a moron? Could you justify the decision in hindsight even if the deal goes badly because the decision making process was sound?

If we took a risk on Petracca based on the info to hand, I could live with that decision if it didn’t work out great.

If we took a risk on Oliver based on the info to hand and it turned out badly, the hindsight review would firmly be in “punch yourself in the face” territory.

I will refrain to give my view on smith because that topic has been done to death.

Yeah, so after all that you agreed with me that in spite of said risks for Smith and Oliver, regardless on perspective, which we have been over, there is still a great risk attached to Petracca. That’s all my point was. I am concerned and feel horrible for the guy that his career path might be altered by such a horrid event. Just such an unlucky occurrence and a bad age for it to happen at and he doesn’t seem to be dealing with it well mentally. And that’s not a shot at him in the slightest. But not everybody comes back like Lonergan and within the first handful of games replicates the contest he lost a kidney in.


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[FishGutz]

To the contrary. It actually makes me more comfortable to take risk, as long as it priced appropriately.

It does however make me wary of risky options if the downside outweighs the price.

It is a good observation that you make, and a very appropriate question to ask.

Excuse my curiosity boys but what’s your background Hinkley? Not trying to have a dig, I am curious having studied psychology.


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[Hinkley29]

Yeah, so after all that you agreed with me that in spite of said risks for Smith and Oliver, regardless on perspective, which we have been over, there is still a great risk attached to Petracca. That’s all my point was. I am concerned and feel horrible for the guy that his career path might be altered by such a horrid event. Just such an unlucky occurrence and a bad age for it to happen at and he doesn’t seem to be dealing with it well mentally. And that’s not a shot at him in the slightest. But not everybody comes back like Lonergan and within the first handful of games replicates the contest he lost a kidney in.


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If that’s what you read into my post, then I can’t help you. I will spell it out in simple terms:

• Petracca = some low level risk based on current circumstance
• Oliver = glowing red thermonuclear level risk based on current circumstance

 

[Hinkley29]

Excuse my curiosity boys but what’s your background Hinkley? Not trying to have a dig, I am curious having studied psychology.


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In general terms - assessment and management of financial risk and the pricing of that risk. Then deciding whether to take the risk on balance sheet or offload it elsewhere.

Think of it as slightly more honourable bookmaking

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Yes and Josh Caddy bought a house in Geelong and 3 weeks later he was at Punt Rd

Yeah poor old Joshy Boy wasn’t the brightest spark was he? lol

 

[Cataholic]

Yes and Josh Caddy bought a house in Geelong and 3 weeks later he was at Punt Rd

He wasn't that good with addresses, hey?

 

[FishGutz]

If that’s what you read into my post, then I can’t help you. I will spell it out in simple terms:

• Petracca = some low level risk based on current circumstance
• Oliver = glowing red thermonuclear level risk based on current circumstance

Yep. So Petracca still a risk. His form was average across the season leading up to his injury as well. Genuinely felt like he was slowing down tbh. On a massive contract until he’s 33 as well. That contract could look pretty gross in 2029. This is my point.


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[And_ROOS]

Yep. So Petracca still a risk. His form was average across the season leading up to his injury as well. Genuinely felt like he was slowing down tbh. On a massive contract until he’s 33 as well. That contract could look pretty gross in 2029. This is my point.


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I don't think he was average I think the issue was he needs to be a full time mid and Demons had him mid/fwd to cover.
From Rd 1 to Rd 10 he will do well in the Brownlow, was poor in the loss to the Lions, but was massive in quite a few games where him or Viney sparked them.

Dude is a mentality monster, he will come back fit and if he leaves Melbourne and goes to a team that doesn't need him forward (like us) he will be top 5 mids in the comp again. Hell, he would have been close to that for the first 10 games of the year.

The difference for Petracca and other mids is when he starts to slow down he can go forward and hit the scoreboard.

 

[moond0g]

Its absolutely the bolded.
I could not care less where the players were at when they signed their deals. If they earned the big deal then great. God for them.

If the GFC are being linked to either, then its all about who and where they are at now they are being linked to us.

I dont care what Bailey Smith was like 3 years ago. He's had off field issues since and has just done his ACL and combined that with mental health issues - all publicly noted by him.

I dont want the club I support investing deeply based on values from years ago - I want them to pay based on now.
Trac has a much higher value now than the others so yeah id pay more for him.

But its all really irrelevant as Trac is well above what we could offer. And Oliver is a mess. Not touchy there.

Smith OOC so its alittle different but given the listed issues I dont want overpayment.

but yeah... its all about where they are right now.

GO Catters

Yes, OK. But now we're talking about a completely different thing. Should we currently pursue either of Oliver or Petracca? Well the answer is then obviously related to what they're performing like now, and what the remaining terms on their current contract are.

But the original point I was referring to was you criticising long term deals and warning clubs against them, inferring that Melbourne should have known better to sign Oliver to a long-term deal (at the time when he was arguably the best player in the comp). But then in the same sentence supporting it in the case of Petracca. It's fine if you just blanket don't think it's ok to give anyone a 6 or 7 year deal, or if you think they should only be offered to certain players (e.g., not Hopper). But you can't retrospectively decide that a player is not worthy and it was a bad decision. What if Petracca can't play football again due to his current injury, will you change your mind and say that mean Melbourne should have known better?