Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I really think that thought should be given to whether Bews and Duncan play on. If we are to progress Atkins needs replacing with a midfielder with more class.

Mullin should hopefully continue to develop to become a regular.

O’Sullivan after another pre season should be aiming to play a decent block of games next season.

I even hope to see Edwards debut. Think he has more forward craft than Neale and is just likely to be a better player. He can play a forward/ruck role. Like to see him play a few games.

Stewart is now starting to concern me a little. I think we’ve probably seen his best. He will still be a fine player next season but I don’t think we can necessarily bank on him playing to the same level as we are used to seeing.

Need to target more mids.

Also, I'm not expecting more than a token couple of games from COS, and I don't expect to see Edwards for another couple of years. Edwards might turn out to be an amazing ruckman but with his frame and the ruck rules now you may as well ruck Dangerfield instead

 

[CatToTheFuture]

He’s far too slow, the game has passed him by, even with very limited time yesterday he managed two key turnovers which led to Brisbane goals and got caught when he could have kicked one himself at our end.

Not only that he has a penchant to avoid as much physical contact as possible now.

He isn't alone on having a bad one last night, and i stress i only had him as the sub in that 23, but he adds more than some high school picked with a 5th rounder.

Humphries has been a revelation but the chances of another are very slim

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I was lukewarm on Kennedy. Last night has made me think we should go for him. He is at least better than Atkins (I'm not having a dig), but he undoubtedly improves us. Smith and Kennedy in....could've been a different result.

Smith i think would've changed the outcome but I don't think kennedy is going to change any outcomes in any meaningful way next year. Then after that we're stuck with him at a point we need to be looking for better mids.

 

[year of the cat]

Duncan's year this year was not worse than Touhys last year, though I didn't want Touhy extended.

Bews has been ok and worth it just to give us an option between him and Mullin.

Most importantly there's no point retiring these guys because we will have so many list spots open.

Out:
Hawkins
Tuohy
Rohan
Foster
Murdoch
Parfitt

In:
Smith
Maybe a 2nd round pick
4-5 picks taken after 50

Ultimately it may come down to what Duncan wants to do. If he’s just hanging on to play 300 then I’m not sure that’s continuing for the right reasons? Like others I just see a player that looks done now. Humphries has shown you can get valuable players at the back end of the draft and this one coming up is deep.

He may well play on and retire early allowing us a mid season draft pick. That may be a reasonable compromise?

I think Bews can go. He was fringe most of the season. Reckon that we can cover him ok.

I see what you are saying re list spots though. We like to stagger our retirements. But I don’t like to see players go on one season too many too.

 

[year of the cat]

Also, I'm not expecting more than a token couple of games from COS, and I don't expect to see Edwards for another couple of years. Edwards might turn out to be an amazing ruckman but with his frame and the ruck rules now you may as well ruck Dangerfield instead

I’d hope to see more than a couple from COS. He’s highly rated and looks like he has a frame to gain size relatively quickly.

Edwards will take longer. I think he could be special. Again needs a big summer on the weights though.

 

[catman2006]

organic internal growth is the area where we can see the biggest improvement, we dont have the picks available to bring much more than Smith to the club and maybe a few late round draftees it will be up to SDK, Neale Humphries,Clarke, Knevitt, Bruhn, Conway, Dempsey, Holmes to show they can keep the development trend heading upwards.

 

[foxdog50]

We really need a mid that can get the ball 30 plus times. As I reckon our midfielders we have wouldnt even average over 25+

I do like Holmes with his run and carry, and getting Smith, he will be like Holmes as well.
If going into next season we are relying on Dangerfield to stand up again, that's a major concern... Plus Cuthrie is 33 next season, once again we can't think he will fix it all

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Ultimately it may come down to what Duncan wants to do. If he’s just hanging on to play 300 then I’m not sure that’s continuing for the right reasons? Like others I just see a player that looks done now. Humphries has shown you can get valuable players at the back end of the draft and this one coming up is deep.

He may well play on and retire early allowing us a mid season draft pick. That may be a reasonable compromise?

I think Bews can go. He was fringe most of the season. Reckon that we can cover him ok.

I see what you are saying re list spots though. We like to stagger our retirements. But I don’t like to see players go on one season too many too.

Yeah I wouldn't be extending him to get him to milestones at all. I think like it or not we'll have to keep staggering retirements and Duncan, Bews, and maybe Stanley would be the beneficiaries

 

[Schmegg]

We really need a mid that can get the ball 30 plus times. As I reckon our midfielders we have wouldnt even average over 25+

I do like Holmes with his run and carry, and getting Smith, he will be like Holmes as well.
If going into next season we are relying on Dangerfield to stand up again, that's a major concern... Plus Cuthrie is 33 next season, once again we can't think he will fix it all

Half of me thinks with Cuthrie he was always an accumulator type which suited the gameplan at the time (deny the opposition the ball), we’ve become a different side in the last 3 seasons and I’m not sure he can work in a hard running role with the accumulation of serious injuries he’s had over the past two season.

 

[Cataholic]

I'm an optimist with footy. Life is too short and the game isn't important enough to worry yourself with negatives.

With that being said, we cannot - under any circumstances - be accounting "fully fit Cam Guthrie" into our plans next year IMO.

We said the exact same thing last year, and it actually somehow got worse.

Even if he does stay fit, we have no idea what Cam at full health looks like anymore. It certainly didn't look awe inspiring when we saw it this year.

If we're talking about internal factors that can make us take that next step, it's the youngsters where we should be placing our faith.

Hopefully Holmes, Henry, Humphries, Bruhn, SDK, Mullin, & Mannagh can take the next step (which varies for each of them) and COS, Clohesy, Clark, & Conway can surprise.

When we talking external factors, then that's Bailey Smith & Co, which you rightly point out.

Cam will be well into his 33rd year by the time the 2025 season rolls around, and even more vulnerable to injury than he's ever been due to the relentless grind of Father Time.

Whatever we get out of him will be a bonus. If we are to rely on him we'll be in trouble.

Danger too will slow just that little bit more, and be just that little more susceptible to injury. No-one can defy aging.

As you said, our hopes depend on that core of youth coming through. Their success will be our success.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I’d hope to see more than a couple from COS. He’s highly rated and looks like he has a frame to gain size relatively quickly.

Edwards will take longer. I think he could be special. Again needs a big summer on the weights though.

I think COS would get games due injuries but he's a bit of a bean pole at this point. Ideally you want him being a loose intercept type but we have a ton of those guys. Finding opportune match ups for him like we did against North is about the best we can do short of a Jack Henry season ending foot injury

 

[Kitcat]

Don't reckon he's the answer

We have to be realistic. If we get Smith, we won’t have much left in the way of picks to get another midfielder and there are few good ones on the market. Kennedy may be the best available and we need to do something. Atkins is not getting better, Bowes now has had 2 seasons to show that he is a very good mid, Bruhn is only doing ok and Clark seems to have lost his zip and confidence.

 

[dangerwood]

Our issue is we do have some very mid level midfielders, and we are deluding ourselves about running this group out there three years in a row without seriously injecting some talent into the midfield. Danger isn’t getting younger, Holmes will improved and hopefully Clark will too, but we need to improve our baseline midfield.

I'm really worried about Clark. I know it's still early but if he wasn't a top 10 you wouldn't even pay him attention in the VFL. Big preseason for him, still has next year to show something but at the moment I can't find any evidence to be confident about him.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We really need a mid that can get the ball 30 plus times. As I reckon our midfielders we have wouldnt even average over 25+

I do like Holmes with his run and carry, and getting Smith, he will be like Holmes as well.
If going into next season we are relying on Dangerfield to stand up again, that's a major concern... Plus Cuthrie is 33 next season, once again we can't think he will fix it all

That's the sobering part for me, not so much that Hawkins and Danger are old, but now Blitz is 34 by like round 3 next year. That one will hurt the tactical tools available to us

 

[Cataholic]

That's the sobering part for me, not so much that Hawkins and Danger are old, but now Blitz is 34 by like round 3 next year. That one will hurt the tactical tools available to us

Blitz looked tired and battered for most of the season to me.

Understandable too because he's carried a significant load over the years. All that running, rucking and jumping is taking its toll now.......

He changed the game and has been a fantastic player for us. The attributes he has bought will be difficult to replace.

 

[Schmegg]

I'm really worried about Clark. I know it's still early but if he wasn't a top 10 you wouldn't even pay him attention in the VFL. Big preseason for him, still has next year to show something but at the moment I can't find any evidence to be confident about him.

Yeah I suppose the thing I have to do is watch more VFL, my uncle said Knevitt was ordinary in the final and he had over 30 touches, yet when he gets into the seniors he’s like a fish out of water.

Plenty of young high draft picks come into other senior teams and play well from the get go, our guys seem to struggle to get a lot of it, then again our midfield pre Selwood was absolutely stacked, we really don’t have any A graders outside of Holmes and a part time Danger.

 

[foxdog50]

That's the sobering part for me, not so much that Hawkins and Danger are old, but now Blitz is 34 by like round 3 next year. That one will hurt the tactical tools available to us

We have to stop play Blitz in midfield ( like we did the last few games ) as his not the player he was in 2022...

It's sad we rely heavily on the 30 plus in the midfield, Holmes is the only midfield young player we have who is a gun

 

[Cataholic]

I'm pinning a bit of hope on Scott's statement that 'we have a few balls in the air' and posters purportedly in the know here that have said we're chasing multiple players.

We need to bring in Smith, plus at least one other, and have the core of our young players take the next step.

 

[catman2006]

Wonder what Miles Bergman would cost to get him out of Port wanted to come back to Victoria.

 

[catempire]

The AFL has release their change to the DVI values that applies from 2025, should see the end of pick cycling, the value of 3rd round picks have been gutted

new value = 3000 * (old value - old value of pick 55) /(old value of pick 1 - old value of pick 55)

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period

www.afl.com.au

Pick	Old DVI	New	Change %
1	3000	3000	0
2	2517	2481	-1.4
3	2234	2178	-2.5
4	2034	1962	-3.5
5	1878	1795	-4.4
6	1751	1659	-5.3
7	1644	1543	-6.1
8	1551	1443	-7
9	1469	1355	-7.8
10	1395	1276	-8.5
11	1329	1205	-9.3
12	1268	1140	-10.1
13	1212	1080	-10.9
14	1161	1024	-11.8
15	1112	973	-12.5
16	1067	924	-13.4
17	1025	879	-14.2
18	985	836	-15.1
19	948	796	-16
20	912	757	-17
21	878	721	-17.9
22	845	686	-18.8
23	815	653	-19.9
24	785	621	-20.9
25	756	590	-22
26	729	561	-23
27	703	533	-24.2
28	677	505	-25.4
29	653	479	-26.6
30	629	454	-27.8
31	606	429	-29.2
32	584	405	-30.7
33	563	382	-32.1
34	542	360	-33.6
35	522	338	-35.2
36	502	317	-36.9
37	483	297	-38.5
38	465	277	-40.4
39	446	257	-42.4
40	429	238	-44.5
41	412	220	-46.6
42	395	202	-48.9
43	378	184	-51.3
44	362	167	-53.9
45	347	150	-56.8
46	331	134	-59.5
47	316	118	-62.7
48	302	102	-66.2
49	287	86	-70
50	273	71	-74
51	259	57	-78
52	246	42	-82.9
53	233	28	-88
54	220	14	-93.6

Given Geelong’s advantage in finding players with late picks, this should be a bonanza for us.

Each year:

1. Trade out of the first round for 10x pick 50 somethings.

…

2. Profit!

 

[Jeff76]

Wonder if the Smith announcement comes out today?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[catempire]

Ok I feel like this is the baseline we need to work with. How do we improve this?

Ff: Stengle Cameron OHenry
Hf: Miers Neale Close
C: Dempsey Bruhn Holmes
Hb: Stewart Kolo Humphries
Fb: Zuth SDK JHenry
Fol: Conway Smith Danger
I: Bews Atkins Mannagh Bowes

S: Duncan
E: Mullin Knevitt Clohesy

Probably a discussion for a “Best 23” thread over summer, but we simply must move on from Atkins. He has extracted everything out of his career. We can’t continue to start a guy who gets 12 possessions and doesn’t stop his opponent.

I also feel Mullin will play every game he’s available next year. Plenty to work with.

But I do think we need someone to break out as a mid in 2025. Can Knevitt, Clark or Clohesy do that? Not sure.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We have to be realistic. If we get Smith, we won’t have much left in the way of picks to get another midfielder and there are few good ones on the market. Kennedy may be the best available and we need to do something. Atkins is not getting better, Bowes now has had 2 seasons to show that he is a very good mid, Bruhn is only doing ok and Clark seems to have lost his zip and confidence.

I just think with him it's the classic trap of bringing in someone who doesn't improve you and blocks games for kids who might.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Ok I feel like this is the baseline we need to work with. How do we improve this?

Ff: Stengle Cameron OHenry
Hf: Miers Neale Close
C: Dempsey Bruhn Holmes
Hb: Stewart Kolo Humphries
Fb: Zuth SDK JHenry
Fol: Conway Smith Danger
I: Bews Atkins Mannagh Bowes

S: Duncan
E: Mullin Knevitt Clohesy

Duncan and bews are cooked and should be retired.
And conway isnt fit enough.
I expect we see sdk as the ruck (unless we trade one in) and knevitt and/or clark has to be in the 22.
Mannagh is first 18 and has proven his quality.
For me bowes and atkins are on very thin ice IF we get the quality coming through to replace them.

 

[catempire]

Also, I'm not expecting more than a token couple of games from COS, and I don't expect to see Edwards for another couple of years. Edwards might turn out to be an amazing ruckman but with his frame and the ruck rules now you may as well ruck Dangerfield instead

I will be very worried if we don’t see more than that of COS. He was a blue chip pick and had an underwhelming year this year. He needs to take a huge stride forward in 2025 including playing at least 10 AFL games.

And before anyone says it, no he doesn’t need more size. He arrived at 92kg and is probably 97kg now. No reason he can’t play as a third tall in the AFL team.