Development guys, development
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List Mgmt. Graeme Wrights Recruiting (Analysing HFC recruiting from 2011-present)
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Dewnior
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 22, 2007
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Oh, and what argument would that be?
Picks in the 20s are well and truly into speculative territory.
historically your odds of getting an all Australian with a pick between 20 and 30 are about 18-1 compared to a top 5 pick which is about 2-1, so missing with Hartung and Lovell is the norm more than an exception.
historically your odds of getting an all Australian with a pick between 20 and 30 are about 18-1 compared to a top 5 pick which is about 2-1, so missing with Hartung and Lovell is the norm more than an exception.
Dewnior
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 22, 2007
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Yes, but we can't expect every pick to become AA. We also need to pick players that etch out a 10+ year career.
It would be interesting to see the odds of getting a 100 game player with a pick between 20 and 30 vs with a pick above 30.
35% of players taken from 21-30 play 100 games compared to 33% for players taken from 31-50. 200 games 13% for 21-30 compared to 14% for 31-50.
That 20-30 range is very overated.
the info is all here.
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
- Aug 31, 2008
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I got crucified for suggesting GW is a below par drafter, but reality is he is exactly that.
On the trade table he the goat.. we do pay a price but he is just about the best at getting deals done.
His trading portfolio is second to none.
In terms of drafting he hasn't had the high picks that are obviously more likely to be sure things. I think there's a huge element of development that has to be factored in somehow.
grumbleguts
User name to post ratio checks out
The one you're having. I don't think it's the one you think you're having.
from 2010 to 2017 yes. Need two of from each of the last two years to keep it up
Plays the long game. Builds relationships with other club list managers. Doesn't fk over other clubs. Knows all the player managers well. Can negotiate. Appreciates a win win.
How do you put a price on a bloke with his experience? He's just about the most important person at the club.
Dewnior
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 22, 2007
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Which is why it was so important that we didn't let the Blues poach him from us. The relationships he has build will walk away with him if / when he ever leaves.
- Feb 13, 2003
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He has developed the perfect blend on how to operate in his market place, clubs know his word is his legacy, he’ll never out anyone, he’ll never leak and he’ll always aim to be fair. I think he is probably one of the most respected in the league, similar to Wells and Beatson, those 3 are probably as good list operators as you’ll find.
Interesting debate.... I prefer to look at it all holistically, perhaps if we had high picks we wouldn't have done certain things in our development processes which wouldn't have converted on late picks. And of course the traditional road to high picks is low finishes, which could have ruined a culture of success, or seen emerging talent move to other clubs etc.
Low story short - I struggle to see how Hawthorn could have been more successful in the period - 3 flags and now loading up for a tilt at another after a tiny hiatus. Some clubs bottom out for a decade or more... I can't think of many recruiters who have had a higher success rate with the picks they've had available; and I'd always give up speculative early picks for proven talent (e.g. Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard), precisely because of the fails in the draft people don't seem to be able to let go of. Finally, any one of the 17 other clubs would trade all their picks, their scouting networks, their recruiting teams... everything - for the success we've had in this window. I bet the Dockers or the Saints look at their Premiership cabinets, then Hawthorn's and think "yeah it's all good, we keep nailing these early picks".
I wouldn't change a thing - Wrighty and team, masters of their domain.
Low story short - I struggle to see how Hawthorn could have been more successful in the period - 3 flags and now loading up for a tilt at another after a tiny hiatus. Some clubs bottom out for a decade or more... I can't think of many recruiters who have had a higher success rate with the picks they've had available; and I'd always give up speculative early picks for proven talent (e.g. Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard), precisely because of the fails in the draft people don't seem to be able to let go of. Finally, any one of the 17 other clubs would trade all their picks, their scouting networks, their recruiting teams... everything - for the success we've had in this window. I bet the Dockers or the Saints look at their Premiership cabinets, then Hawthorn's and think "yeah it's all good, we keep nailing these early picks".
I wouldn't change a thing - Wrighty and team, masters of their domain.
- Banned
- #115
Agree with everything you've said bar we aren't sure if this is the case, but one can only hope.
- Jun 17, 2019
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Below par? I'm really not sure how you can come to that conclusion, Brisbane and Richmond have been the only teams that have significantly out performed us.I got crucified for suggesting GW is a below par drafter, but reality is he is exactly that.
On the trade table he the goat
2014 was our worst drafting year and even then there wasn't much left on the board when we selected Howe, Daniels, Harris(Brisbane would have matched) and Langdon the only players which we missed out on.
- Feb 13, 2003
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Not entirely convinced our list is ready for a legitimate tilt... Some of our best performers have regressed with age and we have kids that look promising but have no guarantee to develop the way we all hope.
I feel we’ll be a finals team but not sure we are in line to compete for a flag.
- Banned
- #118
This is exactly how I feel, I see us being a week 1 or week 2 finals team.
The statistics from that site are enlightening!35% of players taken from 21-30 play 100 games compared to 33% for players taken from 31-50. 200 games 13% for 21-30 compared to 14% for 31-50.
That 20-30 range is very overated.
the info is all here.
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru
Exactly, but what is the succession plan?? Things happen. People get sick. Lose a soldier, you need to replace him with another.
Nathan Detroit
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I mostly agree except for two things. First, the only team I believe is clearly better than us at the moment is Richmond, so if someone were to upset them in an earlier round, why not us?
The second is injury. A healthy best 22 may be enough to get us over the line.
- Feb 13, 2003
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Brisbane have our measure and considerably so.
- Banned
- #123
Yeah we'd need a lot to fall into place, good run with injury, improvement from a couple of youngsters and be more consistent vs the lesser sides. I think we'd also need Jaeger and Wingard to go from good players to elite players.
Finish in the top 4 and hope that someone else manages to take out Richmond so we don't have to play them, because the simple reality is we've never looked like beating them in the last 3 years when they've become the benchmark.
moginie
Brownlow Medallist
Well, we're going to find out in round 1 how far we have to improve to match them.
- Banned
- #125
I hope we look back on this thread in a few years time talking about how good of a decision it was to select Will Day with our first round pick.
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