Greatest Dynasty of the 21st century - Lions vs Cats vs Hawks vs Tigers

[PhatBoy]

What I’m saying is in sport you have no idea what would have happened had a different outcome occurred. So saying the Hawks and Tigers were denied 4-peats by a close loss and a surprise loss removes any consideration of what ‘might’ have happened. So I’m saying it’s impossible to predict had the Hawks won 2012 if they’d have won 13-14-15. Why? Their draft pick is different. Their players likely have premiership clauses in their contracts so not winning it saves money and might help them retain a player. Players are more attractive to other clubs had they won a flag (note Richmond losing loads of depth players). Players might retire on the back of a flag but stay as they didn’t win it. The list of unknowns goes on and on.

And sure, if you have a quaddie and you miss the first leg but get the last 3 you were close to getting the quaddie… but in reality you were absolutely nowhere near it. If you have a big LBW shout given not out on the 3rd last ball of the match, then finish the match with 2 wickets, does anyone argue that bowler was close to a hatrick?

And if the ‘best team’ generally wins the flag, then it takes out ‘chance’. So for example, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been clearly the best players and have accordingly won 60 of the last 68 majors or something ridiculous. So winning consecutively is easier in sports where the ‘best player’ more consistently wins as there is less competition for the title.

So in AFL, if you compile the best list and best coaches and have clearly the best team, winning the flag is now very much up to chance… being the best is just a small factor in winning a flag. So in a more equalised competition, the element of ‘chance’ has an even greater influence on the Premier. So in an equalised comp where 8-9 teams can win the flag whilst in the past it was 3-4, then winning consecutive flags is a lot harder for the BEST teams in particular, as they have 7-8 teams competing for the flag, not 2-3.

Anyway … if you need 160 to win a darts tournament with your last 3 darts (60/60/40), and you don’t hit a triple 20 with your first dart, then no matter what happens next you were nowhere near it.




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Actually if you need to hit 160 and you hit bullseye instead of triple 20 you are still every chance of making it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

In all seriousness (because my previous post wasn't ), I really like Port for the flag.

I've been all over them the last couple of years and they were unlucky in the 2020 Prelim against your mob and had a shocker in last year's Prelim.

Just reckon they have the right balance and are primed in 2022, with Butters, Rozee, Duursma and Georgiades to take big strides this year and be the difference.

Yout observation about trading for the now has just reinforced it.

Overs at $9. Get on whilst you can...

Not so keen on Port here, but there are definitely ways they can improve. But if you like them, you will get something like $12.50 on Betfair after commission.

 

[Fadge]

Not so keen on Port here, but there are definitely ways they can improve. But if you like them, you will get something like $12.50 on Betfair after commission.

Jeepers, I hadn't realised that!

I'm on. Odds have firmed into $12.5 before commission.

I change markets.

Edit: actually brought them into $12, as only 20% of my bet was matched.

 

[Pessimistic]

You want me to say Collingwood, just because they traded out their own 2022 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. And, you know, with most clubs that might constitute “a sign” that “they know.” But not the club who traded out their 2021 first round pick because they mistakingly believed they might finish in the top six. teen. . So it is a big negatori to the Magpies. They don’t know sh!t.

Who else traded out significant 2022 picks tied to their own finishing position?

Port Adelaide shipped out their own 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks, so they are backing themselves. Brought in Skinner as a delisted FA and Finlayson, and Dumont as a rookie, obviously mature players. But most of the potential draft pick value upside from trading out their picks sits with the other parties to the trades, so I am not sure this fits our picture. Port are $9.0 4th favourite for the flag at Sportsbet anyway. Do they have sufficient quality in their prime age 23-29 year olds to win a flag?

29 Lycett
28 Clurey
27 Wines, Aliir squared and Mayes
26 Amon, Dumont, Fantasia, Byrne-Jones
25 Finlayson, Burton, Bonner
24 Houston, Skinner, Pepper
23 Drew, Marshall, Farrell, Hayes

There are 10-12 best 22 there. Maybe a couple too few.

Where is the improvement coming from? Drew, Rozee, Duursma, Butters, Marshall, possibly Georgiades and Sinn. So there are a few there who could realistically take a leap to being able to cut it in big games against the best teams.

Where is the potential deterioration coming from?

34yo Gray
33yo Boak
31yo Dixon
31yo Jonas
31yo Motlop

These players all at significant risk of going backwards.

The key youngsters might still be 1-2 years away from carrying this team and the players who have been carrying the team haven’t been quite good enough. They have some players in their prime years who I don’t think are great in the big games, Aliir, Byrne-Jones, maybe a couple of others.

I doubt Finlayson, Skinner and Dumont make any real difference to that.

They clearly fancy a high finishing position, but I think I’d want better than $9.0 to back them.

Demons have unloaded their 2022 first rounder. A humble little loveable club called the Tigers have cashed in their 2022 3rd and 4th round picks.

The Demons have the ideal list profile and have continued to back themselves by trading away their own first rounder, they have an impeccable form line and at around 4.40 net of commission on Betfair or $4.20 with the books they look the best value to me.

If the demons had just gone 'close' eventually the 'folly' of trading away the pick which netted a King brother would be trending.

From 2007-2020 they had just one finals appearance (PF in 2018 which would be encouraging) including 11 seasons with a high point of 12th (94%) in 2010
three seasons before that 07-09 and four after that 12-15 were all sub 80% and probably soul destroying for members

My point? If you count 2012 onward it was a strong uphill battle with history telling them they would fail or just go close like in 2018 (smashed in the prelim) 2012-2021 is ten seasons where the club cant decide they need to 'start from scratch'

How many clubs can keep the faith? Demos did, Carlton and Essendon havent, yet their histories wold suggest the opposite to the Demons

 

[Meteoric Rise]

If the demons had just gone 'close' eventually the 'folly' of trading away the pick which netted a King brother would be trending.

From 2007-2020 they had just one finals appearance (PF in 2018 which would be encouraging) including 11 seasons with a high point of 12th (94%) in 2010
three seasons before that 07-09 and four after that 12-15 were all sub 80% and probably soul destroying for members

My point? If you count 2012 onward it was a strong uphill battle with history telling them they would fail or just go close like in 2018 (smashed in the prelim) 2012-2021 is ten seasons where the club cant decide they need to 'start from scratch'

How many clubs can keep the faith? Demos did, Carlton and Essendon havent, yet their histories wold suggest the opposite to the Demons

I think you have to remember with that Ben King pick, they traded it in before trading it out. The Demons essentially swapped Hogan for May and Kolodjashnij, because they thought they were ready to contend. And imo at least, that was a good decision. You have to imagine something like the difference between Frost or Oscar McDonald at Full Back versus May, who is a brilliant kick, tough and well organised footballer and well capable of handling gun forwards. Malfunction in that position can derail any finals campaign and as a Hawks supporter you would understand that very well.

The real scrutiny for trading out that pick should be focussed on Fremantle imo, who unloaded it for Jesse Hogan. Not saying that was a foreseeable error by Fremantle, but given where their list sat a Ben King may have slotted in nicely for them.

 

[Seeds]

this post shows exactly why the geelong era was the best. Two of the top 10 dominant seasons of all time. hawks, lions and tigers dont get close to a level of dominance in a season that geelong had twice. The third flag was also pretty dominant as well given they won their first 13 games straight to start the season.

hawthorn and richmond never looked like they couldnt be beaten by anyone. And lets face it, home city advantage in finals and weak grand final opponents probably snagged them an extra flag then they deserved.

geelong had periods where they simply seemed unbeatable Before the bounce even began. Brisbane to a lesser degree.

The rankings (from best to worst) of the 125 VFL-AFL premiership teams

Thanks to everyone for their continued support. This exercise is now in its 20th consecutive year. Two decades! Time to see where the latest premiership team fits in to to the list. I use my own knowledge from the time of have spent watching football combined with anecdotal, statistical, and...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Noidnadroj]

this post shows exactly why the geelong era was the best. Two of the top 10 dominant seasons of all time. hawks, lions and tigers dont get close to a level of dominance in a season that geelong had twice. The third flag was also pretty dominant as well given they won their first 13 games straight to start the season.

hawthorn and richmond never looked like they couldnt be beaten by anyone. And lets face it, home city advantage in finals and weak grand final opponents probably snagged them an extra flag then they deserved.

geelong had periods where they simply seemed unbeatable Before the bounce even began. Brisbane to a lesser degree.

The rankings (from best to worst) of the 125 VFL-AFL premiership teams

Thanks to everyone for their continued support. This exercise is now in its 20th consecutive year. Two decades! Time to see where the latest premiership team fits in to to the list. I use my own knowledge from the time of have spent watching football combined with anecdotal, statistical, and...

www.bigfooty.com

I don’t disagree with most of those sentiments. With all of the equalisation measures now in place I don’t think there’ll ever be a similar level of extended dominance as previous era’s. A few things in place now that didn’t exist 10-20 years ago:

• bidding system for father sons
• soft cap on off-field spending
• state of the art training facilities for basically all teams.
• removal of veteran’s salary cap allowance.
• removal of ‘Visy’ style deals to bypass salary cap pressures (Judd)
• introduction of harder fixtures based on ladder finish.
• free agency, which makes keeping a Premiership list together for long periods almost impossible.

I’m not saying Geelong benefited from all of those things, just saying the competition is now very close to a level playing field whereby teams don’t start the season behind the 8-ball for any reason other than their own mismanagement in coaching, fitness, drafting, development etc…..



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[Papa G]

Brisbane
Geelong

Hawthorn


Richmond

 

[Captain_Bender]

this post shows exactly why the geelong era was the best. Two of the top 10 dominant seasons of all time. hawks, lions and tigers dont get close to a level of dominance in a season that geelong had twice. The third flag was also pretty dominant as well given they won their first 13 games straight to start the season.

hawthorn and richmond never looked like they couldnt be beaten by anyone. And lets face it, home city advantage in finals and weak grand final opponents probably snagged them an extra flag then they deserved.

geelong had periods where they simply seemed unbeatable Before the bounce even began. Brisbane to a lesser degree.

The rankings (from best to worst) of the 125 VFL-AFL premiership teams

Thanks to everyone for their continued support. This exercise is now in its 20th consecutive year. Two decades! Time to see where the latest premiership team fits in to to the list. I use my own knowledge from the time of have spent watching football combined with anecdotal, statistical, and...

www.bigfooty.com

Geelong as a club cared more about Home & Away games, hence why they were never good enough to go back to back

 

[jaygee]

All these teams have won 3 premierships so they are all great teams and deserve to be called the best. Not one better than the other. The only difference is one of those teams won 4 premierships.

 

[Seeds]

Geelong as a club cared more about Home & Away games, hence why they were never good enough to go back to back

Or they just had far better opponents then all the other dynasty sides.

hawthorn 4 weak opponents. won 3 From 4. (Maybe 3 weak - hard to rank 2014 swans given they were great all season but struggled injury wise in finals).

richmond 3 weak opponents. Won 3 from 3
brisbane 2 weak opponents. Won 3 from 4.


geelong 1 weak opponent. Won 3 from 4.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

All these teams have won 3 premierships so they are all great teams and deserve to be called the best. Not one better than the other. The only difference is one of those teams won 4 premierships.

Whilst I don’t entirely agree that is the only difference, I certainly agree it is the only major meaningful difference.

 

[MinerBoy]

Or they just had far better opponents then all the other dynasty sides.

hawthorn 4 weak opponents. won 3 From 4. (Maybe 3 weak - hard to rank 2014 swans given they were great all season but struggled injury wise in finals).

richmond 3 weak opponents. Won 3 from 3
brisbane 2 weak opponents. Won 3 from 4.


geelong 1 weak opponent. Won 3 from 4.

Haha what a load of shit

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong as a club cared more about Home & Away games, hence why they were never good enough to go back to back

Yes that’s what it was.

 

[Blues90]

Hawks and it's not close

 

[Blues90]

Or they just had far better opponents then all the other dynasty sides.

hawthorn 4 weak opponents. won 3 From 4. (Maybe 3 weak - hard to rank 2014 swans given they were great all season but struggled injury wise in finals).

richmond 3 weak opponents. Won 3 from 3
brisbane 2 weak opponents. Won 3 from 4.


geelong 1 weak opponent. Won 3 from 4.

Didn't know Geelong won 3 in a row lol..... Hawks won on then years later under same coach same players 3 peated wbu?

 

[Seeds]

Didn't know Geelong won 3 in a row lol..... Hawks won on then years later under same coach same players 3 peated wbu?

Yeah against three interstste sides at the mcg. Two of which were incredibly weak grand final sides.

there is no way hawks win three in a row playing in the collingwood/saints/cats era of 2009-11 when there were three uber sides all at the same time. Probably lucky to snag 1.

even in 2013 geelong was the better team then hawthorn despite geelong being well past their peak.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah against three interstste sides at the mcg. Two of which were incredibly weak grand final sides.

there is no way hawks win three in a row playing in the collingwood/saints/cats era of 2009-11 when there were three uber sides all at the same time. Probably lucky to snag 1.

even in 2013 geelong was the better team then hawthorn despite geelong being well past their peak.

Who were these “incredibly weak” Grand Final teams the Hawks beat? And on what basis were they incredibly weak? GWS 2019 and Port 2007 and Melbourne 2000 are about he only Grand Finalists I can think of that would justify a description even close to the one you are using here.

 

[MinerBoy]

Yeah against three interstste sides at the mcg. Two of which were incredibly weak grand final sides.

there is no way hawks win three in a row playing in the collingwood/saints/cats era of 2009-11 when there were three uber sides all at the same time. Probably lucky to snag 1.

even in 2013 geelong was the better team then hawthorn despite geelong being well past their peak.

Yes the Cats side that lost a PF that was basically handed to them by the umps was a better team than the team that beat them and won the GF against the 'best defensive side of all time" they were saying.

Hawks played the best team of the 2009-11 era... the 2008 Cats. ;-)

 

[Captain_Bender]

Or they just had far better opponents then all the other dynasty sides.

hawthorn 4 weak opponents. won 3 From 4. (Maybe 3 weak - hard to rank 2014 swans given they were great all season but struggled injury wise in finals).

richmond 3 weak opponents. Won 3 from 3
brisbane 2 weak opponents. Won 3 from 4.


geelong 1 weak opponent. Won 3 from 4.

Wouldn't call Collingwood or St Kilda strong teams, they are the only sides who are worse in grand finals than Geelong is.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Wouldn't call Collingwood or St Kilda strong teams, they are the only sides who are worse in grand finals than Geelong is.

None of the losing Grand Finalists in the so called super era of 2009-11 had compelling finals form prior to the Grand Final. They were just routine losing Grand Finalists at best who just happened to win a lot of unnecessary home and away matches.

We could probably fairly say Saints 09 and Pies 11 were fantastic home and away season teams. But neither of them carded any outstanding finals performances at all.

 

[Captain_Bender]

None of the losing Grand Finalists in the so called super era of 2009-11 had compelling finals form prior to the Grand Final. They were just routine losing Grand Finalists at best who just happened to win a lot of unnecessary home and away matches.

We could probably fairly say Saints 09 and Pies 11 were fantastic home and away season teams. But neither of them carded any outstanding finals performances at all.

Exactly H&A specialist just like Geelong, and look what happened to Geelong when they played teams known for standing up in grand finals like Hawthorn and Richmond.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Exactly H&A specialist just like Geelong, and look what happened to Geelong when they played teams known for standing up in grand finals like Hawthorn and Richmond.

Well you are setting the bar a bit too high for the hapless Cats asking them to win Grand Finals v the likes of the Hawks and Tigers Captain, that’s Grand Final royalty right there. Only one club has beaten the Tigers in a GF since 1945, but on the only two occasions it happened the Tigers had a net positive scoreline in that years finals v the Blues. In fact, did you know, that in 2013 when the Blues famously won a final against the Tigers from 9th, they broke a run of 14 consecutive finals series where the two teams had met and Richmond outscored he Blues across the finals series. 14!

And the Hawks have famously won 12 Grand Finals and lost just 4 in the last 51 seasons.

But 2009-2011 was truly the Grand Final Eddie the Eagles having their moment in the sun, and we shouldn’t take that away from them. The Cats won the cripple fight, great stuff Cats, inspirational to prove you are only the 3rd worst GF team in the comp. The Pies finished runner-up. Well done Pies, that is some going to establish yourself as the second worst GF team in the comp. And the Saints should get something for competing. Nah, f*ck em, they are GF cripples-in-chief.

 

[Fadge]

Jeepers.

Reading the intel from these fellows, it's a wonder that Collingwood and Geelong have won any Grand Finals at all, ever.

 

[Fadge]

Well you are setting the bar a bit too high for the hapless Cats asking them to win Grand Finals v the likes of the Hawks and Tigers Captain, that’s Grand Final royalty right there. Only one club has beaten the Tigers in a GF since 1945, but on the only two occasions it happened the Tigers had a net positive scoreline in that years finals v the Blues. In fact, did you know, that in 2013 when the Blues famously won a final against the Tigers from 9th, they broke a run of 14 consecutive finals series where the two teams had met and Richmond outscored he Blues across the finals series. 14!

And the Hawks have famously won 12 Grand Finals and lost just 4 in the last 51 seasons.

But 2009-2011 was truly the Grand Final Eddie the Eagles having their moment in the sun, and we shouldn’t take that away from them. The Cats won the cripple fight, great stuff Cats, inspirational to prove you are only the 3rd worst GF team in the comp. The Pies finished runner-up. Well done Pies, that is some going to establish yourself as the second worst GF team in the comp. And the Saints should get something for competing. Nah, f*ck em, they are GF cripples-in-chief.

Since 1945...

A time period that includes 1 x 20 year period without any Grand Final appearances, AND another 34 year period without any Grand Final appearances.

What a great way to have a good strike rate in Grand Finals - just don't play in them.