Richmond picked their team in that 2018 PF and they ultimately have to be judged accordingly. They were also not playing great football leading to the PF, and even if the team was fully right I don't think we could confidently say they would have won, or even gone close. You would think they'd have done better though.
But as far as individual players go, Dusty obviously wasn't right.
Astbury was not fit to be selected in an amateur game let alone an AFL Preliminary Final. This was a terrible error by Richmond but also exposed a weakness on our list, the next alternative player would have been a 2nd year Ryan Garthwaite.
And I think Astbury's inability to fulfil his role threw the whole backline into disarray, especially Rance. Rance's finals record is otherwise impeccable. His player ratings in all finals were: 8.8, 14.0, 17.6, 13.1, 13.6, 13.5, 9.0, 14.2(v Pies in the '18 PF) an average of about 13.0. To put that in context, the only Key Defenders to rate above that in home and away seasons during the period Rance was playing finals were:
Rance himself, several times
McGovern and Harold Taylor twice each
Stephen May and Scott Thompson once each.
So Rance definitely performed at a consistently high level in finals.
A good comparison would be Rance's contemporary, Harold Taylor, who was taken 1 pick before Rance in the same draft, and undoubtedly also a quality key defender. In the same years, 2013-18 his finals ratings were:
14.3, 11.7, 12.6, 9.8, 13.8, 10.1, 14.1, 20.5, 11.2, 13.6, 7.8, 8.7, 2.6, 17.4. Average around 12.1.
McGovern all finals aged 23 onwards went:
5.5, 5.7, 12.9, 3.7, 19.8, 19.9, 13.1, 8.4, 11.9, 13.9, 8.6, 18.1 an average of around 11.6
So:
All finals in their primes for which ratings are available:
Rance ave 13.0
Taylor ave 12.1
McGovern ave 11.6
