Speculation Harley Reid [OOC 2026]

[stallon]

I don't agree.
Previously the competition had zones where kids who lived in the area, and were more often than not supporters of the local club, got to play for that team.
That was the beauty of the old system, the majority of the players came from the local community and represented that community.

Today these kids are thrown into a national draft, with no say in where they go, and can be sent to the other side of the country in an absolute shit team.

Allowing the players to find their way back to that local team they supported is something that absolutely should be allowed to happen.

I more refer to the players that refuse to leave, typically the top 5-10 picks who tell or indicate strongly to clubs not to draft them.
Sheezel, Perkins, etc

If they grow up under the assumption that they might have to leave melbourne their entire perspective will be different, like it generally is for the WA and SA kids currently, and even to some extent the vic country kids. They get told by managers and the vic clubs what to say to make sure or highly improve their chances that they can stay in vic. The top vic kids then know that they can get away with it, so they do it naturally.

If they had an open mind and went to another state for a couple of years, and it just didnt work out then fine, ask for a trade and make it happen.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

The length a rebuild takes is 100% at the discretion of the team. We saw the rebuilds that Melbourne and Carlton had, where they sat on the bottom for years and years, getting the top picks, and in Melbourne's case, destroying those kids careers, and then we have seen the recent differences between three clubs, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Hawthorn.
North have done a terrible job, Hawthorn bounced back really quickly, and Adelaides rebuild didn't take that long either.

Norths has been the most painful. Adelaide’s rebuild isn’t complete until they play finals as a minimum, and Hawks rebuild was still 5 seasons from 2020-2024. Granted they didn’t reach the depths of Crows, North or West Coast.

 

[stallon]

It’s not that at all.

Rebuilds are common in sports. They’re not meant to take 5+ years which is what it takes in AFL and the sheer lack of competitiveness in rebuilding teams is an issue .

We have 18 clubs, teams generally want at least a few years of decent picks before moving up the ladder, and periods of success generally last for 6-7 years or so because thats the time from a player reaching their prime to when they start to slow down, and they run out of kids to replace the older guys.

Cant have every club being up and down the ladder every 3 years lol

It’s quite easy to solve. Lift the draft age to 19. It means players come in a year later, are more developed, more ready to go. It also means better talent id, less busts at the draft.

We draft kids that don’t see any proffessional football for 1-2 years becuase they’re so far off AFL standard becuase the gap from junior footy to AFL is huge.

If you mean rebuilds take longer due to talent ID then sure, but its going to be the same result with clubs still needing a period near the bottom to replenish their lists

 

[Cleric]

Norths has been the most painful. Adelaide’s rebuild isn’t complete until they play finals as a minimum, and Hawks rebuild was still 5 seasons from 2020-2024. Granted they didn’t reach the depths of Crows, North or West Coast.

The Crows should have played finals in 2023, and would have if the umpire didn't make such a mistake that it literally cost us a place in the eight. Even the AFL apologised for it.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

We have 18 clubs, teams generally want at least a few years of decent picks before moving up the ladder, and periods of success generally last for 6-7 years or so because thats the time from a player reaching their prime to when they start to slow down, and they run out of kids to replace the older guys.

Cant have every club being up and down the ladder every 3 years lol

If you mean rebuilds take longer due to talent ID then sure, but its going to be the same result with clubs still needing a period near the bottom to replenish their lists

This is is exactly what lifting the draft age would solve.

Teams would be more competitive immediately becuase they’re starting point for a rebuild is getting in guys who are 19 turning 20 who can contribute more than 18 year olds turning 19.

The additional physical and emotional maturity from coming in a year later would benefit clubs and players alike. It would make clubs more competitive during rebuilds and ultimately that’s what everyone wants.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

The Crows should have played finals in 2023, and would have if the umpire didn't make such a mistake that it literally cost us a place in the eight. Even the AFL apologised for it.

Blah blah blah.

Their finishing positions 2020-2024 are 18th 15th 14th 10th 15th.

 

[Cleric]

I more refer to the players that refuse to leave, typically the top 5-10 picks who tell or indicate strongly to clubs not to draft them.
Sheezel, Perkins, etc

If they grow up under the assumption that they might have to leave melbourne their entire perspective will be different, like it generally is for the WA and SA kids currently, and even to some extent the vic country kids. They get told by managers and the vic clubs what to say to make sure or highly improve their chances that they can stay in vic. The top vic kids then know that they can get away with it, so they do it naturally.

If they had an open mind and went to another state for a couple of years, and it just didnt work out then fine, ask for a trade and make it happen.

The problem is the AFL isn't consistent in what it does.
Two examples.
In his draft year Izak Rankine said in an interview that he would prefer to be drafted by Adelaide and get to stay home. The AFL smashed him and his manager told him to never say that again.
On the other hand in his draft year Bailey Smith was telling every interstate club he wouldn't play for them and was handing them all letters from his Dr saying how he suffered from anxiety and it would effect his mental health if he was to leave Melbourne.
The AFL did nothing to him.

 

[Cleric]

Blah blah blah.

Their finishing positions 2020-2024 are 18th 15th 14th 10th 15th.

You can bla bla all you like, but the Crows were at the point of making finals in 2023, and should have.

 

[stallon]

The problem is the AFL isn't consistent in what it does.
Two examples.
In his draft year Izak Rankine said in an interview that he would prefer to be drafted by Adelaide and get to stay home. The AFL smashed him and his manager told him to never say that again.
On the other hand in his draft year Bailey Smith was telling every interstate club he wouldn't play for them and was handing them all letters from his Dr saying how he suffered from anxiety and it would effect his mental health if he was to leave Melbourne.
The AFL did nothing to him.

Yeah well there you go, the AFL allows some kids to get away with it so they push it. Until someone gets an actual punishment like a 2 year ban from the draft itll keep happening. if the worst they risk is a telling off then why not chance it?

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

You can bla bla all you like, but the Crows were at the point of making finals in 2023, and should have.

So Adelaide’s rebuild was finished in 2023? Is that what you’re saying cos lol.

 

[Cleric]

So Adelaide’s rebuild was finished in 2023? Is that what you’re saying cos lol.

No, I'm saying that they were in a position to play finals in 2023. While their rebuild wasn't complete, they were no longer going to be cellar dwellers like North have been. They bounced pretty quick from finishing last to finals chances.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

No, I'm saying that they were in a position to play finals in 2023. While their rebuild wasn't complete, they were no longer going to be cellar dwellers like North have been. They bounced pretty quick from finishing last to finals chances.

So then what happened in 2024?

Or did the AFL apologise for that too?

I’m not talking about cellar dwellers, I’m talking about rebuilds. You don’t have to be a cellar dweller to be in a rebuild.

Adelaide last played finals in 2017… that’s not fast.

 

[Wild Bill]

I more refer to the players that refuse to leave, typically the top 5-10 picks who tell or indicate strongly to clubs not to draft them.
Sheezel, Perkins, etc

If they grow up under the assumption that they might have to leave melbourne their entire perspective will be different, like it generally is for the WA and SA kids currently, and even to some extent the vic country kids. They get told by managers and the vic clubs what to say to make sure or highly improve their chances that they can stay in vic. The top vic kids then know that they can get away with it, so they do it naturally.

If they had an open mind and went to another state for a couple of years, and it just didnt work out then fine, ask for a trade and make it happen.

Its not only the Vic kids that indicate that they don't want to move interstate. Wingard is an example.

 

[Wild Bill]

Nah, he was never worth band one. Everyone knew he was stink average, and the AFL worked their magic in the basement of AFL house to make him a quasi PP.

25 + 6 year contract at nearly 5 million is not band 1??

Please let us know the age, length and amount that would satisfy you for band 1?

 

[Cleric]

So then what happened in 2024?

Or did the AFL apologise for that too?

I’m not talking about cellar dwellers, I’m talking about rebuilds. You don’t have to be a cellar dweller to be in a rebuild.

Adelaide last played finals in 2017… that’s not fast.

They had a bad year that was influenced by long term injuries to a number of our most important players such as Thilthorpe, Rankine, Worrell and Murray.

There's two parts to success. The players and then the coaching.
Rebuild wise, the Crows had the majority of their draft work done before 2024. Getting Draper at four last year was a bit of a freebie off the back of a dead cat bounce.
However, he hasn't had any influence on the teams performance this year.
Now it's up to the other side of the club to do their job.

When clubs are talking about rebuilding they are talking about bottoming out and rebuilding at the draft. This is exactly what Richmond did last year and will again for another couple.
The Crows work at going back to the draft to rebuild is done, and was done in 2022. In 23 we took Curtin, who while playing isn't one of our lynch pins yet and could be replaced in the team and not hurt us on the field.
The core of Worrell, Michaelanny, Rochelle, Soligo, Dawson, Rankine, Thillthorpe, Fog, Pedler and co were all onboard prior to 2023.

There are a couple of teams at the bottom rebuilding and that's Richmond and West Coast at the moment, and North still have to get a couple of holes fixed in their KPP departments.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Is this a Reid trade thread or an Adelaide thread?

bizzare

 

[tiger_tough]

Would Essendon be appealing to Harley now given that they've unofficially announced they're going through a full rebuild? Richmond would be much more appealing I would've thought.

 

[Cleric]

25 + 6 year contract at nearly 5 million is not band 1??

Please let us know the age, length and amount that would satisfy you for band 1?

He is right on that level of $800-$850k a year and 6 year deal. The AFL could have said he just missed out or he got it. With Norths position and needs, they were always going to give band 1.
The AFL keep the requirements secret for that exact reason. To think they don't look at each club individually and then make a decision that isn't influenced by who the club is and their future prospects is wrong.

 

[Cleric]

Would Essendon be appealing to Harley now given that they've unofficially announced they're going through a full rebuild? Richmond would be much more appealing I would've thought.

I think it gets down to money and relationships. Xavier plays at Essendon.
Who did he support growing up, as that plays a role as well.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Would Essendon be appealing to Harley now given that they've unofficially announced they're going through a full rebuild? Richmond would be much more appealing I would've thought.

All of sudden Harley’s landing spot isn’t so clear.

The only two clubs that have the capital to get a deal done are looking very shaky from a list postion.

If I was Harley and set on going home I’d pick the Tiges who seem to have a much better understanding of where their list is at.

 

[jordfass]

Would Essendon be appealing to Harley now given that they've unofficially announced they're going through a full rebuild? Richmond would be much more appealing I would've thought.

Dont think so, the tigers I would argue have more Qs marks than Essendon. Not many of the people who brought recent success to the Tigers are still there, they have more unknown quantities than Essendon. I like the Dons young talent in Caddy, Kako, Durham more than the Tigers group so far, albeit its early days. Plus Zach Merrett is a superstar and the tigers have nobody like that. If Harley grew up supporting them that helps too

 

[tiger_tough]

I think it gets down to money and relationships. Xavier plays at Essendon.
Who did he support growing up, as that plays a role as well.

Supported the Cats I believe. We'd have as much money as anyone. Not sure on personal relationships, he played with an underage Lalor for Vic Country.

Reids manager Nick Gieschen the brother of our recently appointed National recruiter Rhy Gieschen. Plus there is the Matt Clarke connection. I could see the Bombers trying to lure Adam Simpson back to Vic which may help the chase.

 

[tiger_tough]

Dont think so, the tigers I would argue have more Qs marks than Essendon. Not many of the people who brought recent success to the Tigers are still there, they have more unknown quantities than Essendon. I like the Dons young talent in Caddy, Kako, Durham more than the Tigers group so far, albeit its early days. Plus Zach Merrett is a superstar and the tigers have nobody like that. If Harley grew up supporting them that helps too

Merrett is 31 next season, not sure he'd be a real draw card. If you're going to name Kako, you'd have to include Lalor, don't you? Harry Armstrong has done just as much, if not more than Caddy this season. Durham is no star.

A lot would depend how much all the kids we drafted last year come on. We should get a look at Smillie in the next 2 or 3 weeks, Hotton later in the year, Gibcus will return too. More unknown talent as you said, but much higher potential IMO.

Etihad V MCG is also a factor.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

If a thread was ever a picture this is it

 

[captain cotch 9]

All of sudden Harley’s landing spot isn’t so clear.

The only two clubs that have the capital to get a deal done are looking very shaky from a list postion.

If I was Harley and set on going home I’d pick the Tiges who seem to have a much better understanding of where their list is at.

He could slip into our team with less pressure on him as well considering how many 1st round picks we just brought in last year and our semi-recent success.

If he went to Essendon he would be expected to be the saviour.