Have Geelong become too powerful?

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Mr Meow said:
2025 is his last contracted year and then it would be a case of single year contracts depending on if his body holds up, I'd imagine. I'd be happy enough if he got through 2026. He is an athletic freak but one bad injury can change anything.
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Imo your cliff is whatever happens with Cameron. Your midfield isn’t great and without Cameron your forward line isn’t either like lynch with us.

He saved you the game and likely gave you a top 4 spot when he kicked 6.
 
Cleansweep17 said:
Imo your cliff is whatever happens with Cameron. Your midfield isn’t great and without Cameron your forward line isn’t either like lynch with us.

He saved you the game and likely gave you a top 4 spot when he kicked 6.
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Yeah sometimes I'm critical of Jezza because he misses too many simple shots and has weird form lulls through seasons (otherwise he'd be a walk up All Australian every year), but it's only because his best is still damn good. As in top 5 player in the league level of good. And with his high standards even his "off games" of 15-20 disposals and a couple of goals/assists still make a difference.

It's natural that when these players depart we will decline. Dangerfield, Cameron and Stewart are the veterans who still make a difference for us when they're on. The rest have pretty much hit the wall or left. The reason we haven't slipped down the ladder too much because of that this year is that the under 30s have performed a lot better than in 2023.
 
Hawthorn won three flags between 2013-2015 and made top 4 in 2016. In the 2016 trade period they traded aggressively for Tom Mitchell and O'Meara while moving some older players out (Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Lake/Hale the previous year). In 2017 they finished outside of the top 8 with a difficult draw and a trimmed down squad but still added Impey in the offseason. Then in season 2018, when everyone thought they were destined for a bottom-8 finish, they finish top 4. This was driven by a combination of traded in players (particularly Tom Mitchell who won the Brownlow) and some of the leftover older heads (Gunston, Breust, Burgoyne, etc). Even though they finished top 4, a lot of their wins through the season were very close games, and they finished the H&A season with four wins in a row by margins of two goals or less. They proceeded to bow out of the finals in straight sets. Clarko thought the club were close to a flag so in the following trade window (2018), he convinced Hawthorn to trade their first pick and Ryan Burton to Port Power for Chad Wingard, and also brought in Jack Scrimshaw and Tom Scully. Hawthorn proceeded to spend the next 5 years at the bottom end of the ladder.

Geelong never won three flags in a row, but were thereabouts between 2019-2021 before finally getting one in 2022. At this point they moved on some of their older players (Selwood, Dahlhaus, Higgins) and traded in Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Henry and Jack Bowes. The following season in 2023 they missed the top 8 with an unexpected tough draw they're not used to. What followed was a noticeably less active off-season (much like Hawthorn in 2017). Now here in 2024 they are all but certain for a top 4 finish. Five of their wins have been by 13 points or less, including the last two (just like Hawthorn in 2018). Most of these wins were driven mainly by their older contingent (Cameron, Dangerfield, Blicavs, etc). Despite being all but locked in for top 4, they remain 5th favourite to win the Premiership, with Brisbane, Sydney, the Bulldogs and GWS all rated better chances (Port Power are also a better chance). On top of all that, it's also looking all but certain Geelong will trade in Bailey Smith from the Bulldogs in the off-season, which will cost them their first round pick + probably a bit extra. Sound familiar?

If you ask me, the similarities are striking. Everyone likes to say Geelong keep defying the odds and never drop down, but the same things were being said about Hawthorn around that 2016-2018 period having made finals 10 of the last 12 years and picking up three flags.

While there is no doubting Geelong's consistency, I suspect they are at a point where they have too many old players saturating their squad, and their 18-26 contingent just isn't quite good enough, especially through the midfield. Nevertheless, just like Clarko and the Hawks in 2018, I suspect Geelong's list management will incorrectly perceive themselves to be close to a Premiership, capable of winning at least one more with the old guard of Tuohy, Cameron, Stewart, Blicavs and the rest still out there. They will proceed to further compromise the quality of their youth by paying a premium for a fairly risky mid-aged player Bailey Smith, just like Hawthorn did picking up Wingard after a difficult few years. Following that... well, let's see.
 

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I see where you’re going, but I believe the big difference is Geelong is already set up for future finals performances, whereas that Hawks team wasn’t, 2018 was basically like a last throw at the stumps. This Geelong team (with the exception of Danger and Cameron) has actually moved past much reliance at all on the 30+ yr olds. Tuohy, Duncan, Stanley, Rohan, Blicavs, Hawkins and Guthrie have all had sub par years for a variety of reasons, be it injuries or form, and we’re still sitting in the top 4… There won’t be 6 years (and counting) of non finals appearances for the Cats after this year, like it was for the Hawks of 2018.
 
Catsnlakers said:
I see where you’re going, but I believe the big difference is Geelong is already set up for future finals performances, whereas that Hawks team wasn’t, 2018 was basically like a last throw at the stumps. This Geelong team (with the exception of Danger and Cameron) has actually moved past much reliance at all on the 30+ yr olds. Tuohy, Duncan, Stanley, Rohan, Blicavs, Hawkins and Guthrie have all had sub par years for a variety of reasons, be it injuries or form, and we’re still sitting in the top 4… There won’t be 6 years (and counting) of non finals appearances for the Cats after this year, like it was for the Hawks of 2018.
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I don't think that is necessarily true. Hawthorn fans at the time were arguing that Clarko was still replenishing the list with youth, on top of trading for experienced players. They were all talking up the likes of Worpel, Sicily, Hardwick, Impey, O'Meara, Morrison, Cousins, M.Lewis and Burton before they traded him. They were making the exact same arguments you see from Geelong now, that you don't need to bottom out or stockpile top 10 picks to build a Premiership-winning side.

There is no doubt Geelong have some good young players, but there's a difference between Geelong's young players and a serious A-Grade quality core. Someone like Oliver Dempsey is reminiscent of James Worpel in 2018, a good young player plucked from the haystack, but not even close to the level of a Harley Reid, or a Bontempelli, or a Sheezel, or an Ashcroft.

Picking up Bailey Smith for a first rounder + mayo is a fairly expensive commitment to the next 5 years. Looking at Geelong's list right now and their potential for the next 5 years, I do not think they will be able to keep up with GWS, the Bulldogs, Brisbane(who are soon getting another Ashcroft), Sydney, Carlton, Hawthorn, and possibly Port Power, Gold Coast, Fremantle.
 
Just for fun:

Tanner Bruhn = James Worpel
Lawson Humphries = Blake Hardwick
Shannon Neale = Mitch Lewis
Oliver Henry = James Sicily
Oliver Dempsey = Ryan Burton

The obvious outlier is Max Holmes who is a far better talent than most of these guys.
 
Taken from elsewhere (thanks winty):

14 of the 23 players we had yesterday had made their club debut since 2019: Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn, Cameron, Close, Dempsey, Ollie Henry, Holmes, Humphries, Mannagh, Miers, Mullin, Neale and Stengle.

Free agents and draftees will continue to be integrated each year as a couple of veterans retire.

Some people act as if we've had the same list since about 2016/2017 when Dangerfield, Tuohy, Stanley and co. arrived.

J.Selwood, Hawkins, Enright, Ablett, Stanley, Cam Guthrie, Henderson, Taylor, Tuohy, Bartel, Mackie, Lonergan, Rivers, Menegola, Menzel, Motlop, Caddy and Smith are some of the players who are gone, no longer best 22 or will be retiring at the end of this year from that side or the 2019 version.

Would people have really believed that 7 years later Geelong would be thereabouts, with basically no good draft picks in the subsequent seasons? Of course not. Geelong 2017-2019 = Hawthorn 2018 but look what happened. It doesn't mean it will happen again but it bares consideration.
 
And the old players:

Jeremy Cameron = Jarryd Roughead
Mitch Duncan = Shaun Burgoyne
Tom Stewart = James Frawley
Rhys Stanley = Ben McEvoy
Mark Blicavs = Isaac Smith

Still have Dangerfield, Tuohy, Rohan, Guthrie, Bews and Hawkins leftover for the over 30s. Geelong are actually a lot older than Hawthorn were in 2018.
 
Mr Meow said:
Taken from elsewhere (thanks winty):

14 of the 23 players we had yesterday had made their club debut since 2019: Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn, Cameron, Close, Dempsey, Ollie Henry, Holmes, Humphries, Mannagh, Miers, Mullin, Neale and Stengle.
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Playing young players is not the same as recruiting genuine A-Grade quality. With the exception of Holmes, none of those players aren't even close to the level of S-tier talents like Harley Reid or Nick Daicos or Marcus Ashcroft or Will Day.

Mr Meow said:
Free agents and draftees will continue to be integrated each year as a couple of veterans retire.
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Deja vu with Hawks fans from 6-8 years ago. They were all saying the days of dropping down the ladder and drafting are over because they could just continue to fill gaps with trade and free agency. That's exactly what they did, and it didn't work out.
 
Jake98 said:
Playing young players is not the same as recruiting genuine A-Grade quality. With the exception of Holmes, none of those players aren't even close to the level of S-tier talents like Harley Reid or Nick Daicos or Marcus Ashcroft or Will Day.


Deja vu with Hawks fans from 6-8 years ago. They were all saying the days of dropping down the ladder and drafting are over because they could just continue to fill gaps with trade and free agency. That's exactly what they did, and it didn't work out.
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Similar was said about the Cats youngsters 2001-2004.

The list of players I just mentioned were fairly good in their day, weren't they? The cliff should've arrived by 2018, then 2020, then 2022 and now 2024.

Why are you obsessed with this topic?

It's an every weekend thing, right down to the Bailey Smith comments. Then you get upset and get banned.
 
Mr Meow said:
Similar was said about the Cats youngsters 2001-2004.

The list of players I just mentioned were fairly good in their day, weren't they? The cliff should've arrived by 2018, then 2020, then 2022 and now 2024.

Why are you obsessed with this topic?

It's an every weekend thing, right down to the Bailey Smith comments. Then you get upset and get banned.
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You are like the 5th Geelong fan on this board to accuse me of being a Richmond fan who makes accounts to post about Geelong.

Yes, everyone knows Geelong have longevity, but critical analysis of the state of their list in 2024 illustrates a large degree of parity with Hawthorn in 2018.
 
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Jake98 said:
You are like the 5th Geelong fan on this board to accuse me of being a Richmond fan who makes accounts to post about Geelong.

Yes, everyone knows Geelong have longevity, but critical analysis of the state of their list in 2024 illustrates a large degree of parity with Hawthorn in 2018.
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Like I showed, Geelong 5-8 years ago had many fine players who have departed or are no longer important so are about to.

Why get so worried? Enjoy each year as it comes.
 
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The bigger similarity is the 2018 ladder and where the 2024 is heading. 2 game gap from 8th to 2nd indicates that there's every chance of a straight sets exit this year.

As for the suggestion that we're overating our list, we aim to compete each year, not bottom out, no different to what we've done for the past 20+ years. What's the alternative? Send anyone over 32 or 33 to the VFL? Get stuffed.
 
The Final Word said:
As for the suggestion that we're overating our list, we aim to compete each year, not bottom out, no different to what we've done for the past 20+ years. What's the alternative? Send anyone over 32 or 33 to the VFL? Get stuffed.
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It is also no different to Hawthorn's philosophy from 2016 to 2018.

What is the alternative? Well, much like how Hawthorn's pursuit of Chad Wingard was incorrect, I would suggest trading for Bailey Smith isn't the wisest move either.
 
Anyway on topic:

Some people act as if we've had the same list since about 2016/2017 when Dangerfield, Tuohy, Stanley and co. arrived.

J.Selwood, Hawkins, Enright, Ablett, Stanley, Cam Guthrie, Henderson, Taylor, Tuohy, Bartel, Mackie, Lonergan, Rivers, Menegola, Menzel, Motlop, Caddy and Smith are some of the players who are gone, no longer best 22 or will be retiring at the end of this year from that side or the 2019 version.

Would people have really believed that 7 years later Geelong would be thereabouts, with basically no good draft picks in the subsequent seasons? Of course not. Geelong 2017-2019 = Hawthorn 2018 but look what happened. It doesn't mean it will happen again but it bares consideration.
 
Jake98 said:
You are like the 5th Geelong fan on this board to accuse me of being a Richmond fan who makes accounts to post about Geelong.

Yes, everyone knows Geelong have longevity, but critical analysis of the state of their list in 2024 illustrates a large degree of parity with Hawthorn in 2018.
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This isn’t critical analysis. It’s just you saying ‘this player equals this player.’
 
PhatBoy said:
This isn’t critical analysis. It’s just you saying ‘this player equals this player.’
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I wrote a comprehensive comparison in the opening post, and your response was:
PhatBoy said:
Lolllllllll
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and now you are lying by insinuating I'm just saying 'this player equals this player', even when I prefixed that post with just for fun.

Why are you behaving like this?
 
Jake98 said:
It is also no different to Hawthorn's philosophy from 2016 to 2018.

What is the alternative? Well, much like how Hawthorn's pursuit of Chad Wingard was incorrect, I would suggest trading for Bailey Smith isn't the wisest move either.
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Geelong may top up with even more ancient dinosaurs than the almost retired Bailey Smith. What if they get the silver fox Cadman in a couple of years? They already acquired the grizzled veterans Bowes, Bruhn and Ollie Henry in recent seasons.
 
Jake98 said:
I wrote a comprehensive comparison in the opening post, and your response was:

and now you are lying by insinuating I'm just saying 'this player equals this player', even when I prefixed that post with just for fun.

Why are you behaving like this?
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Your comprehensive comparison is simply equating this player from hawthorn with this player from Geelong.

Do you think the other teams from now are going to progress/regress the same way they did in 2019? Do you think our players will all develop the same way Hawthorn’s did? O’Meara was not even good in the first place so God only knows why that was viewed as being some sort of world beating recruitment move. Do you think that the next 1-2 draft classes will be exactly the same as 2018-2019? That our extra-curricular drafting from the rookie draft and from other sources where we seem to pluck players from like Blicavs and mature recruits etc will all be the same as hawthorn in 2018?

2010. 14 seasons of predictions. You’d think people wouldn’t bother by now but no.
 

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Have Geelong become too powerful?

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