Have Geelong become too powerful?

[Jake98]

I read plenty well.

Nah, you didn't.
I broke it all down highlighting all the similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018, and after your first response of "LOL!!!", you followed up by claiming the post was just "player x = player y".
Don't fret too much about it mate, this stuff is clearly above your understanding.

 

[iggs_hip_2024]

Scrutinise them all you want. But if you do it to a shithouse standard, under the veil of some sort of ‘expert analysis’ when in reality it’s nothing more than a rehashing of an effort that has been made literally thousands of times, and with no depth whatsoever, and even more so when it’s blatantly obvious that it’s prompted more by a desire for it to be true than any likelihood of it happen, expect people to take the piss out of it.

words words words

 

[PhatBoy]

Nah, you didn't.
I broke it all down highlighting all the similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018, and after your first response of "LOL!!!", you followed up by claiming the post was just "player x = player y".
Don't fret too much about it mate, this stuff is clearly above your understanding.

Very scientific mate
As I said, a real comprehensive breakdown.

Great work. And very original too. No one has ever made this comparison before.

 

[Jake98]

Very scientific mate
As I said, a real comprehensive breakdown.

Great work. And very original too. No one has ever made this comparison before.

Honestly crazy how much time you've wasted attempting to rationalize your inability to understand a fairly clear and well-laid out post I made.

Next time instead of calling people morons or badly misconstruing a post, at least try to read properly.

Again, plenty of similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018, and player-for-player comparisons are only one small part of that. Everything from form trends to recruitment policy to easy draws demonstrates a clear similarity.

 

[PhatBoy]

Honestly crazy how much time you've wasted attempting to rationalize your inability to understand a fairly clear and well-laid out post I made.

Next time instead of calling people morons or badly misconstruing a post, at least try to read properly.

Again, plenty of similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018, and player-for-player comparisons are only one small part of that. Everything from form trends to recruitment policy to easy draws demonstrates a clear similarity.

You can find plenty of similarities between any two teams who are 1-2-3 years post-premiership if you look close enough: when you analyse them and try and make a prediction based on ‘this happened to this team so it is going to happen to this one as well’ you need to look beyond the things you looked at. That’s the essence of it. You dressing a mutton argument up as lamb doesn’t change that.

As I’ve pointed out even if EVERY other factor was exactly the same - and they aren’t, there are dozens of factors that don’t match - Hawthorn were having their first go at trying to stay up with a team who’s age profile was ‘too old’. Geelong is now having its 4th or 5th go at doing it. The fact that you’ve ignored that from the beginning destroys any credibility the rest of your argument could have.

If you actually prefaced your argument by saying ‘Geelong have defied this prediction many times before whereas Hawthorn fell at the first attempt’ you MAY have added some credibility to it because it would at least show you’ve looked at factors beyond the ages of the players in each team and who was going out or coming in. But you didn’t.

You didn’t look at who was dominant in the competition then, or now.

Richmond looked - and ultimately proved to be - primed to dominate the competition for the foreseeable future. No team fits that bill now. Hawthorn maybe in a few years if they continue at their current rate. So the opposition was different: there was an existing power in the middle of a dynasty. You haven’t addressed that.

Again, you haven’t addressed Geelong actually making an art form of where they get their talent from. Hawthorn have been very good at drafting in talent to fill gaps during the flag years - Lake, Hale etc - but the core of their flag team was drafted and high - Roughead, Hodge etc. the teams had come from different sources.

There’s a compromised series of drafs about to come up which means that it becomes a lottery beyond what Tassie get their pick of: you haven’t factored that in.

The volume of things you have overlooked under the guise of some sort of ‘hey look at this unique detailed thing I did that no one else has ever suggested’ is a lot bigger than the volume of things you focused on.

And just to reiterate:

It’s been done, mate.

Not just the prediction of a fall after 2010 when we lost to the Pies in the prelim. Not just after 2012 when we finished outside the top 4. Not just after 2015 when we finally missed the finals and then Danger had us immediately back in the top 4. Not just after Ablett retired or Selwood. But the actual specific comparison to Hawthorn, 2018.

It’s not criticism of my club - because that isn’t a criticism, it’s a prediction isn’t it - that I don’t like. I just shake my head at pretenders thinking they’re furnishing the place with something insightful or analytical or original when the reality is, they’re on their 12th account and the post is regurgitation of something 100 other people have said, and is more what they’re hoping for than what is likely to happen.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Honestly crazy how much time you've wasted attempting to rationalize your inability to understand a fairly clear and well-laid out post I made.

Next time instead of calling people morons or badly misconstruing a post, at least try to read properly.

Again, plenty of similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018, and player-for-player comparisons are only one small part of that. Everything from form trends to recruitment policy to easy draws demonstrates a clear similarity.

Cool - you're clearly steadfast in your opinion and nothing is going to change your mind. So I'm not sure what there is left to discuss.

 

[Sttew]

Cool - you're clearly steadfast in your opinion and nothing is going to change your mind. So I'm not sure what there is left to discuss.

I've never come across a Swans "supporter" so heavily invested in Geelong's fortunes.

 

[Jake98]

You can find plenty of similarities between any two teams

Jesus you are still going at it with these big posts. What makes you think I'm going to read them when you wouldn't even read mine properly.

The fact is there are similarities. No amount of mental gymnastics or clutching at straws will invalidate those similarities. Just take the L and move on, stop getting so worked up over an opposition supporter scrutinizing your club a bit.

 

[Jake98]

I've never come across a Swans "supporter" so heavily invested in Geelong's fortunes.

I'm actually not, but clearly Geelong fans here have severe difficulties letting go, or just accepting that not every opposition fan will give a glowing endorsement of everything your club does.

I mean yeah how could you possibly let someone highlight a few similarities between your club now and Hawthorn from 2018? Better call people morons and spend your monday morning writing a series of passive-aggressive theses after completely misconstruing the original post.

 

[Sttew]

I'm actually not, but clearly Geelong fans here have severe difficulties letting go, or just accepting that not every opposition fan will give a glowing endorsement of everything your club does.

I mean yeah how could you possibly let someone highlight a few similarities between your club now and Hawthorn from 2018? Better spend your monday morning writing a series of passive-aggressive theses after completely misconstruing the original post.

So there are similarities? Big deal! Between 2007 and 2023 Geelong played in finals every year except 2015 and 2023. That's 15 out of 17 seasons. After 2010 "experts" like you predicted the Cats era was over. "Too old and too slow". Yet they didn't. Experts predicted the Cats would finish bottom 4 in 2024. Yet they won't and should finish top 4, So there may be similarities between Hawks 2018 and Cats 2024, but I think comparisons between Hawks & Tigers are more apt.

Geelong isn't too powerful, they are just an extremely well managed club at every level.

 

[PhatBoy]

Why are you so precious about it?

If you don't like me highlighting a few similarities, just ignore it and let go.

Back in 2018 Hawthorn fans were more or less saying the same things, that they never drop down for long because they're an extremely well run and amazing club. Then of course they did drop down. But after 5 years of rebuilding and quality drafting, they now have a far superior contingent of youth to Geelong, are much better placed to content for flags over the next 5 years, and won't be giving up their first round pick for a questionable footballer.

Even this is an utterly ridiculous comment.

Why wouldn’t they have a better contingent overall of youth considering they have spent the last five years building to this point. The only valid comparison to Hawthorn’s youth now, in the wake of their drop off, would be if we dropped off now, and you compared our youth in 5 years time to theirs now and see how both clubs bounced back.

 

[supahoops]

I don't think that is necessarily true. Hawthorn fans at the time were arguing that Clarko was still replenishing the list with youth, on top of trading for experienced players. They were all talking up the likes of Worpel, Sicily, Hardwick, Impey, O'Meara, Morrison, Cousins, M.Lewis and Burton before they traded him. They were making the exact same arguments you see from Geelong now, that you don't need to bottom out or stockpile top 10 picks to build a Premiership-winning side.

There is no doubt Geelong have some good young players, but there's a difference between Geelong's young players and a serious A-Grade quality core. Someone like Oliver Dempsey is reminiscent of James Worpel in 2018, a good young player plucked from the haystack, but not even close to the level of a Harley Reid, or a Bontempelli, or a Sheezel, or an Ashcroft.

Picking up Bailey Smith for a first rounder + mayo is a fairly expensive commitment to the next 5 years. Looking at Geelong's list right now and their potential for the next 5 years, I do not think they will be able to keep up with GWS, the Bulldogs, Brisbane(who are soon getting another Ashcroft), Sydney, Carlton, Hawthorn, and possibly Port Power, Gold Coast, Fremantle.

What drivel.

 

[sexyhunk]

We heard you the first 20 times you said it.

I don't get your obsession with it. Even if we were about to fall off a cliff, then bully for us. Why do you care? It doesn't affect Richmond.

a new poster registered 2 weeks ago and already a dog with a bone with everything geelong. figure it out.

 

[STPer18]

It's crazy to think top 4 Geelong have better youth prospects than the team currently in wooden spoon position.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Hawthorn won three flags between 2013-2015 and made top 4 in 2016. In the 2016 trade period they traded aggressively for Tom Mitchell and O'Meara while moving some older players out (Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Lake/Hale the previous year). In 2017 they finished outside of the top 8 with a difficult draw and a trimmed down squad but still added Impey in the offseason. Then in season 2018, when everyone thought they were destined for a bottom-8 finish, they finish top 4. This was driven by a combination of traded in players (particularly Tom Mitchell who won the Brownlow) and some of the leftover older heads (Gunston, Breust, Burgoyne, etc). Even though they finished top 4, a lot of their wins through the season were very close games, and they finished the H&A season with four wins in a row by margins of two goals or less. They proceeded to bow out of the finals in straight sets. Clarko thought the club were close to a flag so in the following trade window (2018), he convinced Hawthorn to trade their first pick and Ryan Burton to Port Power for Chad Wingard, and also brought in Jack Scrimshaw and Tom Scully. Hawthorn proceeded to spend the next 5 years at the bottom end of the ladder.

Geelong never won three flags in a row, but were thereabouts between 2019-2021 before finally getting one in 2022. At this point they moved on some of their older players (Selwood, Dahlhaus, Higgins) and traded in Tanner Bruhn, Oliver Henry and Jack Bowes. The following season in 2023 they missed the top 8 with an unexpected tough draw they're not used to. What followed was a noticeably less active off-season (much like Hawthorn in 2017). Now here in 2024 they are all but certain for a top 4 finish. Five of their wins have been by 13 points or less, including the last two (just like Hawthorn in 2018). Most of these wins were driven mainly by their older contingent (Cameron, Dangerfield, Blicavs, etc). Despite being all but locked in for top 4, they remain 5th favourite to win the Premiership, with Brisbane, Sydney, the Bulldogs and GWS all rated better chances (Port Power are also a better chance). On top of all that, it's also looking all but certain Geelong will trade in Bailey Smith from the Bulldogs in the off-season, which will cost them their first round pick + probably a bit extra. Sound familiar?

If you ask me, the similarities are striking. Everyone likes to say Geelong keep defying the odds and never drop down, but the same things were being said about Hawthorn around that 2016-2018 period having made finals 10 of the last 12 years and picking up three flags.

While there is no doubting Geelong's consistency, I suspect they are at a point where they have too many old players saturating their squad, and their 18-26 contingent just isn't quite good enough, especially through the midfield. Nevertheless, just like Clarko and the Hawks in 2018, I suspect Geelong's list management will incorrectly perceive themselves to be close to a Premiership, capable of winning at least one more with the old guard of Tuohy, Cameron, Stewart, Blicavs and the rest still out there. They will proceed to further compromise the quality of their youth by paying a premium for a fairly risky mid-aged player Bailey Smith, just like Hawthorn did picking up Wingard after a difficult few years. Following that... well, let's see.

Problem with this is you are assuming this has been a period leading up to this point and now it is about to tip over some imaginary cliff because you see some similarities with hawthorns team.

For starters, geelong has gone through about 3-4 entire team cycles from the year 2007-2024 ( literally 17 years while missing finals twice) hawthorn who you are referring to was a core group of players from start to finish and once they dropped off that was basically it. Hawthorn didn’t redevelop several entire sides like we did.

Hawthorns period was also from 2008-2018. Ten years, not 17 years.

Geelong has been in a position of having “too many old players saturating our squad” probably since 2011 onwards with the same comments non stop. Yet with incredible list management we continue to redevelop slowly with trading drafting and free agency to stay atop.

Eventually we will have to drop, but we have been there in this situation you speak of so frequently and overcome it with quality list management elite coaching and probably the best administration and recruitment in the AFL, that just don’t be too surprised if we continue to do well beyond 2024 and into 20+ years.

 

[Dan26]

There is in general with especially the younger generation and those on the woke agenda of thinking that achievements happen due to inequities and someone being disadvantaged. These people don’t understand hard work and talent is what drives success, not inequities.

This is a good post. It comes down to how left-wing people see the world and how conservatives see it. The left tend to see anyone who is disadvantaged as being oppressed and want equality of outcome. The right want equality of opportunity. In my mind equality of opportunity is what we should strive for, and then the best run clubs/people/businesses thrive. Trying to strive for equality of outcome just leads to misery and has done for thousands of years. It's an impossible utopia.

You can't legislate for equality of outcome even though the AFL try very hard. The best run clubs continue to be successful - like Geelong.

 

[MisterMarcus]

It's crazy to think top 4 Geelong have better youth prospects than the team currently in wooden spoon position.

Clearly "too powerful"...

 

[dazbroncos]

It's going to get worse. No parity in footy at all

you could do better with what you have.

Go Catters

 

[Strange Cat]

I'm actually not, but clearly Geelong fans here have severe difficulties letting go, or just accepting that not every opposition fan will give a glowing endorsement of everything your club does.

I mean yeah how could you possibly let someone highlight a few similarities between your club now and Hawthorn from 2018? Better call people morons and spend your monday morning writing a series of passive-aggressive theses after completely misconstruing the original post.

You’re not fooling anyone

 

[dazbroncos]

Bay this shit please

And the sock puppets continue as soon as they get knocked out of finals contention... well in one case it started about 13 weeks ago...

GO Catters

 

[kickazz]

No we haven't, we are just as shit as everyone else in the 8 this year.

 

[randyzany]

Sustained success does not necessary mean 'power' in my book, especially since Geelong doesn't have multiple flags to show for the last 10 years or so, like other clubs that have tanked to acccess the best talent in the draft do.

Powerful would be what Manchester City has acheived in the Premier League and that's mainly down to petrol dollars flowing from that club's owners coffers, considerably out spending every other rival to buy some of the best players in the world on a consistent basis and winning multiple trophies because of it.

Unlike fans of other clubs you won't see me acting like a pork chop as if I had personally had any direct involvement with it, I'm just appreciative and enjoying the ride for as long as it lasts.

I am as surprised and flummoxed as to how Geelong's administration has managed this and can understand why fans of other clubs may be suspicious but nothing to date suggests that Geelong has done anything underhanded, unethical, etc... to achieve that sustained success of remaining contenders year in year out.

 

[CharacterFirst]

A quote directly from Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

.

 

[Boxhead_31]

It's crazy to think top 4 Geelong have better youth prospects than the team currently in wooden spoon position.

Some would say its a concerning lack of youth

 

[Angus Young]

Major respect to Geelong.