Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[peetoo]

Before we went 8w from 10, we were 3 wins and 42% off freo in 8th
Now we are 1 win and 10% off Melbourne in 8th, and Melbourne look like the one we will need to displace come round 22

Melbourne are 5w from 10 and over 20% worse in that time.


Obviously hawks need to turn up each week, but the task is certainly well within possibility, and gets even more so with each win

 

[DogDaySonny]

We win out, finish fourth on the ladder and beat the Swans in the Granny. Bank it.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

We win out, finish fourth on the ladder and beat the Swans in the Granny. Bank it.

We drop games to pies, gws, adelaide and Carlton. We keep our prime draft pick and we win the flag in 2025

 

[scrim reaper]

A big part of me wants to make finals because I'm not emotionally ready for this season to end, it's been a lot of fun and hopefully we can ride it for as long as possible. You sneak into the 8 and maybe get a game at the G and who knows what can happen. Not suggesting we're a flag chance but just great for the group to experience that together and build the hunger.

After the 3peat years it was kind of refreshing to not have a dog in the fight and to be able to enjoy finals without the anxiety, but I'm very much over it now.

Regardless we are playing with house money at this point so we can all just enjoy being very much in the hunt at round 19, not many predicted that.

The most enjoyable Hawks footy season in at least 5 years, and in my opinion since 2016.

 

[KermitJagger]

We drop games to pies, gws, adelaide and Carlton. We keep our prime draft pick and we win the flag in 2025

Yuck.

Worst case scenario IMO. Form regression and we don't even get a good pick out of it, still in that draft pick no-man's-land where you won't get the clear best in the draft nor are you late enough to be comfortable in taking a punt on a promising but speculative player.

 

[theiaofseed]

Crazy to think 13 wins might not be enough to make finals when last year Carlton finished 5th with 13 wins.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Looking at our remaining games, I reckon it's going to be tough from where we are, and with our shitty percentage.

Pies - definitely winnable - 60/40 chance
Crows in Adelaide - tough - 50/50 at best
Giants away - tough - 40/60
Carlton - very tough - 30/70
Tiges - very winnable - 70/30
North at UTAS - extremely winnable - 80/20

Three more wins ain't gunna cut it

But if you'd told me before the season that we'd win 12 games this year, after eight last year, I'd have been deliriously happy with that....

How could the Blues be 70/30?, your overrating them. Giants is 50/50, we are 1-0 against them in Canberra with a worse team than we have now. It's not Giants stadium than I would agree with that percentage. 50/50 if your being realistic.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Wut? Our draw isnt hard at all.

We play 4 sides we've already defeated and Collingwood are in bad form. That only leaves Carlton as the only game you'd write down automatically as a loss. Gws, Collingwood the other games we don't start clear favourites.

Carlton isn't an automatic loss they have just lost 2 in a row. We definitely expose their backline as long as we break even in the midfield. It's nowhere near as tough as it might have been 3-4 weeks ago.

 

[kazzooka]

. That only leaves Carlton as the only game you'd write down automatically as a loss.

Why the hell would anyone do that.

Finals equation is simple

Win 6/6 and we 100% play finals.

Win 5/6 and we're still probably 90% chance.

4/6 and it'll come down to percentage, we have 3 crap teams in Adelaide, North and Richmond to improve that. But still in our control

3/6 and we would need a lot of luck from other sides losing big and us boosting percentage. Most likely to miss.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Just hope we're still a chance come the Giants game, because I'm heading up for it. Want us to throw everything at it!

 

[Sixpence]

Just hope we're still a chance come the Giants game, because I'm heading up for it. Want us to throw everything at it!

I'll be there too.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'll be there too.

Will be my 4 year old sons first Hawks game.

Fingers crossed he actually enjoys it and we win.
Best-worst case scenario is that we get brushed aside by the Giants but he's keen to leave early anyway.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Just tried squiggle again, changed GWS result to Hawthorn by 1pt.

We scrape into 8th, but then never leave the MCG.

Elim Final v Essendon at MCG (I pick, so of course we win)
Qual Final v Geelong at MCG (Win)
Prelim Final v Carlton at MCG (Win)
GF v Sydney at MCG (Win)

I think Sam would be happy with that.

 

[FisherHawk]

It really isn’t.

Lose by small margins and get on top of Tigers and Roos in the last two rounds and we slide on by a bunch of sides.

I like your optimism, but I feel our % will still be too low. With 2 losses, I have us in 9th, below 4 others on 13 wins with Port GWS Dons and Dockers above and Dogs Dees Suns below. I hope I'm wrong with my predictions.

 

[Nugett]

I’m sick of playing ladder predictior each week. Every week it’s new tangibles

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

I’m sick of playing ladder predictior each week. Every week it’s new tangibles

Just win

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I like your optimism, but I feel our % will still be too low. With 2 losses, I have us in 9th, below 4 others on 13 wins with Port GWS Dons and Dockers above and Dogs Dees Suns below. I hope I'm wrong with my predictions.

It’s not optimism, it’s data.

Do the ladder predictor, have us win 13 games, have us lose by small margins only.

 

[Sixpence]

I like your optimism, but I feel our % will still be too low. With 2 losses, I have us in 9th, below 4 others on 13 wins with Port GWS Dons and Dockers above and Dogs Dees Suns below. I hope I'm wrong with my predictions.

It’s not optimism, it’s data.

Do the ladder predictor, have us win 13 games, have us lose by small margins only.

Without doing anything too crazy, I've had us finishing on 13 wins and sitting in 8th. There's a huge amount of permutations to go through still. Our percentage isn't ideal, but it's not necessarily a blocker to us making finals.

 

[Ka Norkers]

this is the week.
win: we make finals.
lose: we don't.

 

[peetoo]

this is the week.
win: we make finals.
lose: we don't.

Till next week.

Answer should be there after next 3 games. But a loss now is entering ‘mathematically possible’ territory

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Seen quite a few people in the media say that whoever loses this week out of our game can’t play finals.

We absolutely can, but with Collingwood needing to play and beat at least 3 of Carlton, Swans, Lions and Dees in the last month they’d be pretty cooked.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Hawks can catch any percentage of the teams around them except maybe the WB

 

[twentythree]

Are we sayin err ... "go cats" tonight ?

 

[peetoo]

Happy 100% everyone

 

[peetoo]

Are we sayin err ... "go cats" tonight ?

Looks a bit Ike a cow paddock