Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Lickmesocks]

I am just trying to workout if we win our next ten in a row. Will it mean we beat Essendon in Round 1 next year?

Nah we just let the e Bombers celebrate that one as there GF win each year.

 

[FisherHawk]

Getting into the 8 now with 13 wins is near impossible, even 14 could see us in 9th. No chance if we drop 2 games, possibly if we drop 1. GWS away big test and have to step up to beat the Crows.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Getting into the 8 now with 13 wins is near impossible

It really isn’t.

Lose by small margins and get on top of Tigers and Roos in the last two rounds and we slide on by a bunch of sides.

 

[Sixpence]

Getting into the 8 now with 13 wins is near impossible, even 14 could see us in 9th. No chance if we drop 2 games, possibly if we drop 1. GWS away big test and have to step up to beat the Crows.

I did a predictor dropping 2 games and had us eighth, so not "No chance".

 

[Nugett]

It really does depend other results going our way as well.

 

[Roddy]

It really does depend other results going our way as well.

Seriously, every star, planet and moon has to align for us from here on, from where we are.

 

[moginie]

Seriously, every star, planet and moon has to align for us from here on, from where we are.

No they don't.

We just have to keep winning. And that's not impossible, astrologically or otherwise.

 

[Roddy]

No they don't.

We just have to keep winning. And that's not impossible, astrologically or otherwise.

Us continuing to win, with the draw we have, is part of the required astrological alignment...

 

[Billyc]

I did a predictor dropping 2 games and had us eighth, so not "No chance".

While ladder predictors are of limited value because nobody picks 9/9 per week, they can be a guide as to how many wins are likely required as it at least accounts for the various challengers who must play one another. For us, I have 13 wins making it with a game clear, with 8th spot being the side with the highest % on 12 wins.

If we win 5 or 6, we make it. 4 is maybe, provided the wins include Collingwood and Giants. Anything less is no chance with poor percentage. If we can't win 4 of the last 6 given two are gifts we won't deserve to play finals. Bottom line: if good enough, which includes beating other sides vying for the same spots, we will make it.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

Who we beat will be as important as the number....if we win 4 but lose to GWS and Collingwood for example, we are less likely to make finals than if we win 4 but somehow lose to Richmond and North.

The GWS game in particular will be true '8 point game'

 

[H00t]

If we want to make finals we need to beat Pies, Crows, Tigers and North at the level they are currently playing at.

From there only need 1 win against GWS or Blues to assure our place. Both who haven’t been looking that great either lately.

Finals or not is entirely in our hands.

 

[theiaofseed]

Us continuing to win, with the draw we have, is part of the required astrological alignment...

Wut? Our draw isnt hard at all.

We play 4 sides we've already defeated and Collingwood are in bad form. That only leaves Carlton as the only game you'd write down automatically as a loss. Gws, Collingwood the other games we don't start clear favourites.

 

[Roddy]

Wut? Our draw isnt hard at all.

We play 4 sides we've already defeated and Collingwood are in bad form. That only leaves Carlton as the only game you'd write down automatically as a loss. Gws, Collingwood the other games we don't start clear favourites.

Yeah, but where did we play those teams? It's always a major factor.

We play: the reigning premiers (and yes, we're a big chance against them), Adelaide in Adelaide, always a significantly different proposition than at the 'G, the Giants away, after we just fell over the line against them with some lucky umpiring down at our fortress away from home, and then Carlton, currently second, and in the best form they've been in this century.

That's a tough run of four games....

 

[Billyc]

Yeah, but where did we play those teams? It's always a major factor.

We play: the reigning premiers (and yes, we're a big chance against them), Adelaide in Adelaide, always a significantly different proposition than at the 'G, the Giants away, after we just fell over the line against them with some lucky umpiring down at our fortress away from home, and then Carlton, currently second, and in the best form they've been in this century.

That's a tough run of four games....

It's really not. Carlton are the only side left that will definitely play finals. We finish with the bottom 2 sides. It's a very good run home and if we're good enough to play finals, we will win enough games to do so.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I reckon we'll just miss out.

But of the chasing sides you can expect the arse to fall out of one or two of them.

GWS, Gold Coast, Bulldogs, Port and Melbourne are all incredibly hot and cold sides. So one or two of them will drop off and be cold cold. One, may two will go hot and win a streak.

I think us and Sydney seem to be the only side with a reliable form line. The rest are rando as hell

 

[Ned Ryerson]

TBH, if we win this week v Pies, we play finals. If we lose, we don't. Simple as that.
Will be interesting to see what they do with Gunner this week, and probably also what they do with Breust.

I reckon we can afford 1 more loss. A loss vs the Pies wouldn’t be a dagger but losses to both them and GWS absolutely would be.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I just did a conservative predictor with us finishing on 13 wins and we finish 9th on percentage.

 

[mknaven]

In all likelihood, we miss finals, but the fact that we are playing in these games where a lot is at stake has great value, particularly as we're starting to stand up in them. We set ourselves for the game last year against the Pies, but that was more because it was one of our few opportunities to play in front of a big crowd as opposed to the game having increased consequences for the loser. We're 1-1 from a challenging six week stretch, so the longer we keep winning, the more value the games are going to have, which is a great experience for the team.

In 2018 we were in a similar position, but beating the Swans(?), Cats & Bombers in important games is what catapulted us into the top 4.

 

[Walshawk]

I did a predictor dropping 2 games and had us eighth, so not "No chance".

If GWS is not one of those two losses that helps.

I reckon we beat the Pies, lose to Adelaide, beat GWS, then lose to Carlton. Win the last two and we sneak into 8th.

 

[mustang]

I just did a conservative predictor with us finishing on 13 wins and we finish 9th on percentage.

I did the same the GWS game seems to change where we finish lose we finish 9th win we finish as high as 6th if we can beat Collingwood, Adelaide in SA.

 

[TONYC3163]

Bombers in, Pies to miss, Hawks a chance: We predict the ladder

AFL.com.au reporters have predicted what the ladder will look like at season's end

www.afl.com.au

 

[Hackysack]

I honestly believe we win all remaining games except GWS, for some reason the blues don’t bother me to much.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

With all of these elimination finals type games in the final 6 rounds, the AFL is loving it as they must be on course for a record season attendance

 

[peetoo]

Was Sydney unlikely in 2023. Finished with 50 points in 8th
4W 1D 5L in previous 10
Bulldogs finished 9th with 12 wins. The final 8 not in place till round 23

Even now it can be 3 in and 3 out of the eight

 

[Sixpence]

If GWS is not one of those two losses that helps.

I reckon we beat the Pies, lose to Adelaide, beat GWS, then lose to Carlton. Win the last two and we sneak into 8th.

In the predictor I did, the losses were to Carlton and GWS, so it's possible to still make it. I agree that beating GWS will definitely help though!

We are fortunate that we're playing them in Canberra rather than Sydney. Still a tough game, but not as bad.