Toast Hawthorn have headf***ed everyone

[Toasted]

And yet Melbourne clubs have won 15 of the last 17 flags.

True, but the runner up has been an interstate club in 9 out of the last 11

 

[Mitchell Madness]

They did in hindsight. But what if Gil didn't come in with his dirty money and we brought Coniglio over (who was probably top 10 player in the league). Would we have then been able to poach Whitfield too.

Sliding doors moment (take note Purple, you slug) - a fit Mitchell, Coniglio, Whitfield, Wingard and JOM suddenly is an elite unit.

Or ol' gil in 2015? Vetoing a mega trade that would've seen us land pick 2 in the year we were premiers

Demetriou was a flog, but gil did us no favours in his time in charge

 

[extractasam]

Or ol' gil in 2015? Vetoing a mega trade that would've seen us land pick 2 in the year we were premiers

Demetriou was a flog, but gil did us no favours in his time in charge

When/what was this trade? I can never remember hearing anything about that

 

[Mitchell Madness]

When/what was this trade? I can never remember hearing anything about that

It was the same year we got orouke from gws, so 2014?

Was pretty much identical to the mega trade in the aflw this season, a bunch of clubs, picks and players going everywhere, but gil said no, presumably as it would've lost gws a bunch of picks (but given them a heap of ready made players)

I'll try and find the article from the time

 

[KermitJagger]

True, but the runner up has been an interstate club in 9 out of the last 11

It's a manifestation of the inferiority complex.

There's nothing stopping them from winning at the MCG, but the amount of whinging about it makes it a fait accompli.

 

[HedgeFund]

It's a manifestation of the inferiority complex.

There's nothing stopping them from winning at the MCG, but the amount of whinging about it makes it a fait accompli.

Disagree.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Melbourne have all won flags in that period on what is their home ground, where they play the majority of their games during the season, and can stick to a far easier match day routine.

Geelong also has to simply travel up the Princes Hwy (in their own cars) for a 1 hour drive and get to sleep in their own beds. Some of their players live in Melbourne anyhow.

Almost all of those wins were against interstate teams (Bris/WCE/Adel/Freo/Syd/GWS) who play in Melbourne a handful of times per year, and have to deal with fortnightly air travel and staying in hotels to play games, including the GF.

If we had to play our GFs interstate every season, against a home team in their own city, we wouldn’t have such a great strike rate either.

It’s a factor for sure. Far more genuine than some purported “inferiority complex”.

 

[Sixpence]

Disagree.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Melbourne have all won flags in that period on what is their home ground, where they play the majority of their games during the season, and can stick to a far easier match day routine.

Geelong also has to simply travel up the Princes Hwy (in their own cars) for a 1 hour drive and get to sleep in their own beds. Some of their players live in Melbourne anyhow.

Almost all of those wins were against interstate teams (Bris/WCE/Adel/Freo/Syd/GWS) who play in Melbourne a handful of times per year, and have to deal with fortnightly air travel and staying in hotels to play games, including the GF.

If we had to play our GFs interstate every season, against a home team in their own city, we wouldn’t have such a great strike rate either.

It’s a factor for sure. Far more genuine than some purported “inferiority complex”.

Melbourne and Richmond broke massive droughts. Collingwood have lost more than they've won in the last 25 years (all to interstate sides).

Sydney, West Coast and GWS can play and win at the MCG, they just choked massively. Adelaide and Freo were still competitive.

Grand Finals don't have any crowd advantage.

 

[KermitJagger]

Disagree.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Melbourne have all won flags in that period on what is their home ground, where they play the majority of their games during the season, and can stick to a far easier match day routine.

Geelong also has to simply travel up the Princes Hwy (in their own cars) for a 1 hour drive and get to sleep in their own beds. Some of their players live in Melbourne anyhow.

Almost all of those wins were against interstate teams (Bris/WCE/Adel/Freo/Syd/GWS) who play in Melbourne a handful of times per year, and have to deal with fortnightly air travel and staying in hotels to play games, including the GF.

If we had to play our GFs interstate every season, against a home team in their own city, we wouldn’t have such a great strike rate either.

It’s a factor for sure. Far more genuine than some purported “inferiority complex”.

This argument might have a bit more credence if the games were close, but they're not. Most of the interstate clubs in grand finals recently have been obliterated. That's not a product of advantage, that's all psychological.

There have been 2 genuinely close grand finals recently, one lost by an MCG tenant and one won by an MCG tenant.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Disagree.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Melbourne have all won flags in that period on what is their home ground, where they play the majority of their games during the season, and can stick to a far easier match day routine.

Geelong also has to simply travel up the Princes Hwy (in their own cars) for a 1 hour drive and get to sleep in their own beds. Some of their players live in Melbourne anyhow.

Almost all of those wins were against interstate teams (Bris/WCE/Adel/Freo/Syd/GWS) who play in Melbourne a handful of times per year, and have to deal with fortnightly air travel and staying in hotels to play games, including the GF.

If we had to play our GFs interstate every season, against a home team in their own city, we wouldn’t have such a great strike rate either.

It’s a factor for sure. Far more genuine than some purported “inferiority complex”.

It's at least partly inferiority complex and nothing to do with the big bad MCG. Good interstate sides can win at the MCG if they are good enough. Good MCG tenant sides can win interstate if they are good enough. I have mates who are interstate club supporters and the chips on their shoulders are like boulders.

Interstate sides can whine all they like about home ground advantage - in 2020 the Lions had the side to do it and subsequently choked in both a qualifying final and preliminary final at the Gabba against both the eventual premiers. You invoked Melbourne in your example - but they won the flag and all of their finals that year away from the MCG.

The MCG is an excuse for teams that can't deliver on the big stage. The MCG didn't stop interstate sides winning 4 flags in the 90s and 6 flags in the 00s with 3 of those grand finals featuring all interstate sides.

 

[toomanysquibs]

And yet Melbourne clubs have won 15 of the last 17 flags.

Absolutely, but not really for want of them trying though.

It's going to come around again, couple of close calls with the perennial favorites making GFs. SB's are a dark horse to challenge soon, but they have been pushing that red and white wagon pretty good for most of my adult life.

That market is too big to fail, aside from the GF failures.

 

[marklar]

Good interstate sides can win at the MCG if they are good enough.

Anywhere, any place any time. The Hawks in 2013-2015 and Richmond in their GF years after ours would have won on any ground, they were that good. Had the right coaching, cattle, gameplan, everything came together when it needed to.

 

[triangulation_squared]

Disagree.

Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Melbourne have all won flags in that period on what is their home ground, where they play the majority of their games during the season, and can stick to a far easier match day routine.

Geelong also has to simply travel up the Princes Hwy (in their own cars) for a 1 hour drive and get to sleep in their own beds. Some of their players live in Melbourne anyhow.

Almost all of those wins were against interstate teams (Bris/WCE/Adel/Freo/Syd/GWS) who play in Melbourne a handful of times per year, and have to deal with fortnightly air travel and staying in hotels to play games, including the GF.

If we had to play our GFs interstate every season, against a home team in their own city, we wouldn’t have such a great strike rate either.

It’s a factor for sure. Far more genuine than some purported “inferiority complex”.

How do you explain Melbourne going out in straight sets on the MCG and winning their premiership away in Perth?

 

[Tony3163]

How do you explain Melbourne going out in straight sets on the MCG and winning their premiership away in Perth?

What happened to Melbourne does not negate the point being made. People can argue the degree of it, but Melbourne clubs have an advantage.

 

[TheFourPillars]

What happened to Melbourne does not negate the point being made. People can argue the degree of it, but Melbourne clubs have an advantage.

That is balanced out by the home ground advantage that interstate clubs have during season.

 

[Mercy Seat]

This argument might have a bit more credence if the games were close, but they're not. Most of the interstate clubs in grand finals recently have been obliterated. That's not a product of advantage, that's all psychological.

There have been 2 genuinely close grand finals recently, one lost by an MCG tenant and one won by an MCG tenant.

I think the games blow out because there’s far less to play for once the game gets out of reach and it’s crushing from a morale perspective. There are plenty of sports psychologists have talked about this in much greater detail.

An MCG inferiority complex certainly exists for fans but I strongly doubt it does for players. Most clubs have a similar make up of players from various parts of the country, most Melbourne, and most relish the opportunity to play at the MCG on grand final day. It’s what they’ve dreamed of.

There’s no doubt MCG is an advantage on the actual day for those that play there more throughout the year and get to travel less. 15 from 17 flags is a hard anomaly to argue against.

But it’s just the nature of footy, there are a lot of quirks that we just have to live with. Interstate clubs often have an easier path to finals to begin with due to their home ground advantage, something we certainly don’t have.

 

[Tony3163]

That is balanced out by the home ground advantage that interstate clubs have during season.

Yes, however Interstate clubs travel more often and the GF is in Melbourne.

 

[Nugett]

I had/have no objection to getting them in...at a reasonable cost.

It's what we paid that had my heart sinking, even at the time. JOM not our fault really, (* you, Cockring) but we paid a premium for our 'we get our man' philosophy. Same with Chad.

A lot of first and second round picks gone on those two trades...

You are absolutely right about hindsight, but when you fork out like that, you really raise the bar for a 'break-even' or win...

Add in what little we got in losing Mitchell and Lewis and a couple of others, it made it harder as well. From the JOM trade the real winners was St.Kilda.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

There’s no doubt MCG is an advantage on the actual day for those that play there more throughout the year and get to travel less. 15 from 17 flags is a hard anomaly to argue against.

That's recency bias though. If you cherry pick the period between 1992-2006 interstate clubs win 10 out of the 15 flags despite making up less of the competition overall (at most during that period interstate clubs make up 38% of the competition).

It peaks and troughs because the MCG does not matter on the day. If the interstate side is good enough they will win. There might be a slight advantage to teams whose gameplan stacks up to playing consistently on the G - however most sides have dimensions that are not that far off the MCGs. Optus Stadium, the Gabba, Olympic Park, Carrara and the AO are all close to the MCG's dimensions so wouldn't radically alter a gameplan. The differing dimensions of Subiaco back in the day compared to the MCG didn't harm the Eagles at all who won multiple premierships there against sides with more MCG experience. The SCG differs the most and it didn't stop Sydney beating us in 2012. The Lions during their dynasty even had to play home prelims at the MCG and ended up winning them. The MCG will not stop a superior interstate side winning the grand final and interstate flogs who claim it will are just absolute sooks.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Yes, however Interstate clubs travel more often and the GF is in Melbourne.

Which didn't harm them during the period prior to and after the turn of the century where interstate teams were dominating to the point where there were 3 grand finals that didn't even have a Victorian team in them from 2004-2006. This is a time when sports science would basically have not existed or been in its infancy, airline travel wasn't nearly as comfortable and it didn't stop interstate teams winning flags despite multiple trips to Melbourne. Very rarely in recent years when the Victorian side has won the grand final has it been a crazy upset. 2016 definitely was. Outside of that the sides have been closely matched so it is hard to argue the situation isn't just the better side winning on the day. Even 2014 where we were overwhelming underdogs - if you look at the ladder despite us having a season wrecked by injuries to key players we finished on the same W/L as the Swans and were within 2 percentage points of them so it's not as if they were runaway minor premiers. In 2015 we travelled to WA twice including the week before the grand final with a day's less break with West Coast the more rested team in weather conditions that should have favoured them. We ended up crushing them because we were the better side.

Travel, umpiring, scheduling etc are all excuses of supporters who can't cope with the fact that their side got beaten by the better side on the day.

 

[Tony3163]

Which didn't harm them during the period prior to and after the turn of the century where interstate teams were dominating to the point where there were 3 grand finals that didn't even have a Victorian team in them from 2004-2006. This is a time when sports science would basically have not existed or been in its infancy, airline travel wasn't nearly as comfortable and it didn't stop interstate teams winning flags despite multiple trips to Melbourne. Very rarely in recent years when the Victorian side has won the grand final has it been a crazy upset. 2016 definitely was. Outside of that the sides have been closely matched so it is hard to argue the situation isn't just the better side winning on the day. Even 2014 where we were overwhelming underdogs - if you look at the ladder despite us having a season wrecked by injuries to key players we finished on the same W/L as the Swans and were within 2 percentage points of them so it's not as if they were runaway minor premiers. In 2015 we travelled to WA twice including the week before the grand final with a day's less break with West Coast the more rested team in weather conditions that should have favoured them. We ended up crushing them because we were the better side.

Travel, umpiring, scheduling etc are all excuses of supporters who can't cope with the fact that their side got beaten by the better side on the day.

That is a long response to a statement of fact. Maybe you were addressing other posts?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

That is a long response to a statement of fact. Maybe you were addressing other posts?

You're a good poster so your short post deserved a longer response. Or I thought you were defending the argument that interstate teams have it rough so felt obliged to vent my spleen. Take your pick!

I have a mate who is a conspiracy-driven supporter of an interstate club so this argument tends to get me going because he has some very wild ideas about biases against interstate clubs. That and he gets VERY passionately fired up about it so it is fun to poke the bear.

 

[Kil Phearns]

Today marks 3000 days since Hawthorn won a final.

Yes, it's a long way behind Essendon's 7000+, but still a noteworthy drought for a club that's become so used to success over the past half century or so.

For reference, it was 3240 days between the 1991 Grand Final win against West Coast and our next finals win, the 2000 Elimination Final v Geelong. Of course, the latter occurred on August 11 2000 because of the Sydney Olympics (Grand Final was on September 2).

 

[Mercy Seat]

That's recency bias though. If you cherry pick the period between 1992-2006 interstate clubs win 10 out of the 15 flags despite making up less of the competition overall (at most during that period interstate clubs make up 38% of the competition).

It peaks and troughs because the MCG does not matter on the day. If the interstate side is good enough they will win. There might be a slight advantage to teams whose gameplan stacks up to playing consistently on the G - however most sides have dimensions that are not that far off the MCGs. Optus Stadium, the Gabba, Olympic Park, Carrara and the AO are all close to the MCG's dimensions so wouldn't radically alter a gameplan. The differing dimensions of Subiaco back in the day compared to the MCG didn't harm the Eagles at all who won multiple premierships there against sides with more MCG experience. The SCG differs the most and it didn't stop Sydney beating us in 2012. The Lions during their dynasty even had to play home prelims at the MCG and ended up winning them. The MCG will not stop a superior interstate side winning the grand final and interstate flogs who claim it will are just absolute sooks.

I think the way modern footy has settled in the last 15-20 years, the equalisation measures, stripping away COLA, the level of professionalism now in the game, etc, that it's fair to use the last 15 or so flags as representative data. Footy is a lot different than it was 92-06.

Anyway, it may well change again, and interstate clubs should be able to adapt if they're good enough. But I still think it's an advantage to Melbourne teams. Leigh Matthews reckons it adds a 3-4 goal advantage to the Melbourne side on the day, and I'd say he's pretty well qualified here.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Leigh Matthews reckons it adds a 3-4 goal advantage to the Melbourne side on the day, and I'd say he's pretty well qualified here.

As qualified as they are, he is also a long-term Director of an interstate club so his comments are at least a tad conflicted.

 

[smeltitdeltit]

So conversely the interstate team enjoy at the very least a 3-4 goal advantage every second week.