Hawthorn to play finals in 2024?

[The 747]

Since the beloved tanking thread is off the main page will have to post here.

Thought Ginnivan played a good game on the weekend, tried his ducking thing, didn't get paid so then decided to play football instead.

For finals I would be concerned by having to rely on Chol as a pack marking target.

 

[hawkman]

Since the beloved tanking thread is off the main page will have to post here.

Thought Ginnivan played a good game on the weekend, tried his ducking thing, didn't get paid so then decided to play football instead.

For finals I would be concerned by having to rely on Chol as a pack marking target.

Lewis is hopefully back after the bye, played a half in the VFL on the weekend.
Chol did have a couple of poor marking contests in the 2nd but was decent overall.
The interesting one will be Dear or Gunston later in the season. Dear does compete constantly in those packs but Gunston has 3 or 4 betters games than Dear has had this season, yet his worst games have also been worse than Dear's worst

 

[hawkman]

Since the beloved tanking thread is off the main page will have to post here.

That is a travesty that needs to be fixed

 

[The 747]

Lewis is hopefully back after the bye, played a half in the VFL on the weekend.
Chol did have a couple of poor marking contests in the 2nd but was decent overall.
The interesting one will be Dear or Gunston later in the season. Dear does compete constantly in those packs but Gunston has 3 or 4 betters games than Dear has had this season, yet his worst games have also been worse than Dear's worst

Chol was good on the weekend, but Richmond defenders did not seem interested in chasing him, got out the back a few times.

 

[SSSSSS]

Since the beloved tanking thread is off the main page will have to post here.

Thought Ginnivan played a good game on the weekend, tried his ducking thing, didn't get paid so then decided to play football instead.

For finals I would be concerned by having to rely on Chol as a pack marking target.

We've got such a good mosquito fleet building that so long as he and Dear get it to ground we're in it with a chance.

Lewis is our great white hope. If he can get fit and stay fit he it will make or break our chances for finals this year.

Realistically we would probably need to win 6 of our 9 games. Probably 7 given our percentage. I can't see it happening but regardless of the result at the end of the day this season has been a success already.

 

[DogDaySonny]

We've got such a good mosquito fleet building that so long as he and Dear get it to ground we're in it with a chance.

Lewis is our great white hope. If he can get fit and stay fit he it will make or break our chances for finals this year.

Realistically we would probably need to win 6 of our 9 games. Probably 7 given our percentage. I can't see it happening but regardless of the result at the end of the day this season has been a success already.

Hawthorn's percentage after round 7 when the Hawks were 1-6 was 69.9%. Seven games later the Hawks are 7-7 with a percentage of 92.7%. If we win six of the nine remaining games, our percentage will be somewhere around 114%. There will be no percentage issue for finals if the Hawks make it.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Hawthorn's percentage after round 7 when the Hawks were 1-6 was 69.9%. Seven games later the Hawks are 7-7 with a percentage of 92.7%. If we win six of the nine remaining games, our percentage will be somewhere around 114%. There will be no percentage issue for finals if the Hawks make it.

In table form - our % (Overall, and since that round).

Round	Haw	Opp	Overall %	% Since Rd
1​	83​	107​	77.57%​	93.06%​
2​	38​	93​	60.50%​	94.58%​
3​	70​	106​	62.42%​	99.60%​
4​	72​	77​	68.67%​	103.60%​
5​	56​	109​	64.84%​	104.55%​
6​	113​	68​	77.14%​	112.78%​
7​	42​	118​	69.91%​	107.08%​
8​	98​	91​	74.38%​	123.36%​
9​	73​	64​	77.43%​	126.70%​
10​	79​	80​	79.30%​	128.93%​
11​	100​	75​	83.40%​	137.46%​
12​	107​	80​	87.17%​	138.94%​
13​	85​	79​	88.58%​	142.19%​
14​	97​	49​	93.06%​	197.96%​

After Rd.7 we are at 123%. Keep that up for the last nine games and we will end up around 105%.
After Rd.6 we are at 107%. At that rate we will still be <100%.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

The issue with percentage will be non existent with other top 8 sides being similar by end of season, 100-110%. With games being possible boosters around North, West Coast, Freo in Tassie, Richmond etc and just maintaining winning, it’ll end around 110-115.

 

[tommyk72]

The issue with percentage will be non existent with other top 8 sides being similar by end of season, 100-110%. With games being possible boosters around North, West Coast, Freo in Tassie, Richmond etc and just maintaining winning, it’ll end around 110-115.

I don't reckon all of them will be as easy as we hope. Especially West Coast.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I don't reckon all of them will be as easy as we hope. Especially West Coast.

Should be if the Hawks are serious, West Coast horrid last week.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Either way they look good the Hawks and are on the up.

 

[Malik_90]

No…


























































Well actually, yes.

 

[SSSSSS]

Jeez there are some embarrassing posts in here lol looking back.

 

[HawkMongrel]

Jeez there are some embarrassing posts in here lol looking back.

You gotta love people sticking their head out the window without realising there's a truck coming in the other direction.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Sam Mitchell is a genius. Hawthorn just have winning bred into them, and now Mitchell is carrying the torch for the next generation after winning 4 flags as a player. Just unreal.
I mean no disrespect when I say that he has milked every drop from that list. Perhaps draft picks are overrated but there's no denying they are short of top-end draft talent and punching above their weight right now.
Amazing to see.

 

[happy_hawks]

Did enjoy the arrogance of a number of Blues fans, "No, which clubs would Hawks over take in 2024 to make the 8?"

Well the baggers for one. Da Da Da Da DONE!

 

[HairyO]

Sam Mitchell is a genius. Hawthorn just have winning bred into them, and now Mitchell is carrying the torch for the next generation after winning 4 flags as a player. Just unreal.
I mean no disrespect when I say that he has milked every drop from that list. Perhaps draft picks are overrated but there's no denying they are short of top-end draft talent and punching above their weight right now.
Amazing to see.

Massively selling short the players. Just because we paid pick 61 for D'Ambrosio doesnt mean he wasnt that good.

It just means he was undervalued and poorly used. Many Essendon supporters saw how good he was going to be.

Similar story with so many others.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Massively selling short the players. Just because we paid pick 61 for D'Ambrosio doesnt mean he wasnt that good.

It just means he was undervalued and poorly used. Many Essendon supporters saw how good he was going to be.

Similar story with so many others.

Yeah I probably am TBH. Fair point.

 

[HeHateMe]

Yeah the top end talent argument, it isn't a fair representation. Guys like Newcombe, Weddle, Day, Moore even someone like Dear would all go in the top end of their drafts if we went back and redid them knowing what we know now. It's like guys like Warner, Gulden or Holmes are they not considered top end talent just because they were drafted later?

 

[Pharaoh]

I also think Hawthorn has the best young player development in the league at the present time.

 

[Nugett]

Rebuilds are bloody hard work.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Sam Mitchell is a genius. Hawthorn just have winning bred into them, and now Mitchell is carrying the torch for the next generation after winning 4 flags as a player. Just unreal.
I mean no disrespect when I say that he has milked every drop from that list. Perhaps draft picks are overrated but there's no denying they are short of top-end draft talent and punching above their weight right now.
Amazing to see.

I think people still don’t quite respect the amount of talent we have and how we develop it.

Instead choosing to look at how many are top 5 draft picks we have.

 

[Nugett]

I think people still don’t quite respect the amount of talent we have and how we develop it.

Instead choosing to look at how many are top 5 draft picks we have.

I think that’s the difference between successful sides to unsuccessful sides. With clubs like Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney, it’s not really where the players were picked, but more along the lines of what the players can do in the team.

With the less successful sides, it’s based more on player reputation from where they were picked, past performance and expectation. So it’s more individualistic than team. Carlton has been a prime example of this mentality for a long time.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

When you think about it, using Draft order isn't actually a great way to rate player talent. You assume the other teams picking ahead of you got it "right".

Who says the #1 pick is better than the #2? We always hear the recruiter from teams - "We think he's the best player in the draft", "didn't think he would last to us", etc and put it down to PR.

The only person that you can 100% say rates #1 ahead of #2, is the team that makes the pick.

Do Hawthorn develop players better - or do we just identify talent better? (Or my answer - both).

 

[Nugett]

When you think about it, using Draft order isn't actually a great way to rate player talent. You assume the other teams picking ahead of you got it "right".

Who says the #1 pick is better than the #2? We always hear the recruiter from teams - "We think he's the best player in the draft", "didn't think he would last to us", etc and put it down to PR.

The only person that you can 100% say rates #1 ahead of #2, is the team that makes the pick.

Do Hawthorn develop players better - or do we just identify talent better? (Or my answer - both).

It’s probably a bit of both.

If we use Luke Hodge as an example from 2001. Hawthorn traded for him for the number 1 pick. The club identified Hodge as the number 1 draft pick because he had the characteristics that they were looking for at the time. He was the right number 1 pick for us. Judd went pick number 3, probably the better player, more dynamic, burst of speed ect. He would not have been the right choice for us at that time. Both great players, both offering something different. For West Coast Judd was the perfect fit for them, as they already had a midfield structure of Cousins, Kerr and that calibre that could exploit Judd’s weapon’s far easier, then what we could have done. So both clubs benefited greatly.

When people do a retrospective 2001 draft, they always look at the player, so most will say GAJ number 1 Judd number 2. Then it’s debatable between Hodge, Mitchell, Bartel, Lake, Swan, Del Santo, Sandilands and Ball.

For me I would always take Hodge as number 1 in that draft as he was what we needed at that point in time.