History of Our 2007 Draft Pick Numbers (Last 10 Years)

[mymansyd]

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to look back on the 5 draft pick numbers we’ve got in this year’s National Draft and see what players were previously picked up with them (in the last 10 years), as a sort of guide as to what we might expect. I haven’t included pick 75 (or whatever it will turn out being), as we have already selected the Texas Ranger with that pick.

I think what this little exercise shows is that you’ve basically got as much chance to pick up an AFL regular at pick 38 as you have at 27 and so on.

Anyway, it’s just a bit of fun.

Pick 10’s 97-06

Outcome: 5 current AFL regulars (in bold)

97 Shane O’Bree (Bris)
98 Brandon Hill (WC)
99 Luke McPharlin (Frem)
00 Jordan McMahon (WB)
01 Sam Power (WB)
02 Jason Laycock (Ess)
03 Ryley Dunn (Frem)
04 Chris Egan (Coll)
05 Marcus Drum (Frem)
06 Nathan Brown (Coll)

Pick 27’s 97-06

Outcome: 3 current AFL regulars

97 Bradley Stephens (Kang)
98 Steven Baker (StK)
99 Cain Ackland (Port)
00 Ted Richards (Ess)
01 Tom Davidson (Coll)
02 Darren Walsh (Ess)
03 Adam Campbell (Frem)
04 Pat Garner (Bris)
05 Dylan Addison (WB)
06 Brad Howard (StK)

Pick 30’s 97-06

Outcome: 4 current AFL regulars

97 Paul McMahon (Kang)
98 Nicky Winmar (WB)
99 Jonathan Brown (Bris) F/Son
00 Saverio Rocca (Kang)
01 Rod Crowe (Kang)
02 Daniel Merrett (Bris)
03 Brad Symes (Port)
04 Andrew Lee (Ess)
05 Nick Lower (Port)
06 Ricky Petterd (Melb)

Pick 38’s 97-06

Outcome: 4 current AFL regulars

97 James Rahilly (Geel)
98 Brendan Fevola (Carl)
99 Cameron Ling (Geel)
00 Michael Handby (Adel)
01 Ashley Hansen (WC)
02 Blake Grima (Kang)
03 Mark Blake (Geel)
04 Damien McCormack (WB)
05 Travis Tuck (Haw) F/Son
06 James Hawksley (Bris)

Pick 59’s 97-06

Outcome: 3 current AFL regulars

97 Brett Rose (Syd)
98 Luke Speers (Melb)
99 John Barnes (Ess)
00 Luke Hammond (Bris)
01 Adam Schneider (Syd)
02 Daniel Sipthorp (Rich)
03 Michael Rischitelli (Bris)
04 Benet Copping (Frem)
05 Clint Bartram (Melb)
06 Jarryd Allen (StK)

For Interest Sake, the pick we thought we should have had seems to be have been one of the most least productive picks over the last decade. Maybe, it’s jinxed, and we were better off without it!!

Pick 22’s 97-06

Outcome: 2 current AFL regulars

97 Troy Longmuir (Melb)
98 James Begley (StK)
99 Ezra Poyas (Rich)
00 Richard Hadley (Bris)
01 Mark Seaby (WC)
02 Matthew Ferguson (StK)
03 Cameron Thurley (Geel)
04 Jesse Wells (WB)
05 Beau Muston (Haw)
06 Albert Proud (Bris)

 

[Mad Dog]

Nice analysis.....

Pick 27 certainly has been "ham sandwich" territory over the years......

 

[Farmy]

Nice work.

 

[J-Ro-20]

nice work!

I'm stating to worry about our pick # 10 now. looking at that list there aren't that many good players on there..

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Removing the last 3 years for when the player may still be developing.

#10 5/7 regulars
#27 3/7 regulars
#30 3/7 regulars
#38 4/7 regulars
#59 2/7 regulars

#22 2/7 regulars

So it would appear the strike rate is better for a top-10 pick, but then there is not much difference between 27-38, then perhaps it falls away.

The difference for this year's draft, is that it may fall away earlier due the apparant lack of depth/quality.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Well done mymansyd - although Mark Blake was another F/S with Geelong I think.

 

[Mismatched]

Geez the 38s are a fair list, gotta be the best of them, Ling, Hansen and Fevola.

 

[mymansyd]

Well done mymansyd - although Mark Blake was another F/S with Geelong I think.

Yep, spot on.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Well done mymansyd - although Mark Blake was another F/S with Geelong I think.

Correct

Nice work mymansyd

 

[mymansyd]

Geez the 38s are a fair list, gotta be the best of them, Ling, Hansen and Fevola.

That's what I thought, as well. At the end of the day, if we come away with 3 regulars (down-the-track), then that would be a great result. Law of averages suggests that 2 out of 5 would be more likely.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Pick 38 has a solid history but I am not sure what impact it would have if you consider that Fevola for example was a 17 year old and back then the clubs could only draft one 17 year old. That might have thrown out the order of the draft because some clubs might have rated a 17 higher than 18 year old but they would have already used one of their previous picks on 17 year old.

Probably not a huge impact but still could potentially change the order of the draft somewhat.

 

[Crow-mo]

Removing the last 3 years for when the player may still be developing.

#10 5/7 regulars
#27 3/7 regulars
#30 3/7 regulars
#38 4/7 regulars
#59 2/7 regulars

#22 2/7 regulars

So it would appear the strike rate is better for a top-10 pick, but then there is not much difference between 27-38, then perhaps it falls away.

The difference for this year's draft, is that it may fall away earlier due the apparant lack of depth/quality.

the thing is, "regular" isn't worth very much. actually any good, that's a different matter

 

[Southerntakeover]

the thing is, "regular" isn't worth very much. actually any good, that's a different matter

Considering the average footballer doesnt play over 50 games, then if you get a 'regular' for a few years, its probably a drafting win.

 

[Crow-mo]

Considering the average footballer doesnt play over 50 games, then if you get a 'regular' for a few years, its probably a drafting win.

certainly there is some merit to that... except draft picks have a massively overvalued profile due to the idea that they will deliver you a lot more than a regular - especially as many of those regulars are 'marginal' types. for example, you could trade pick 10, for something a good deal better than a marginal, regular type - but you don't, because of the perception it will get you something a lot more. of course, rarely does it, but in that context, getting a regular isn't exactly a win. imo.

 

[Southerntakeover]

certainly there is some merit to that... except draft picks have a massively overvalued profile due to the idea that they will deliver you a lot more than a regular - especially as many of those regulars are 'marginal' types. for example, you could trade pick 10, for something a good deal better than a marginal, regular type - but you don't, because of the perception it will get you something a lot more. of course, rarely does it, but in that context, getting a regular isn't exactly a win. imo.

Yeah, id agree it certainly depends on the pick. People might expect first rounder to be a bit more than a 'regular', and maybe thats fair, but for your average type pick getting a fairly reliable player who might be good for 100 or so games is a win IMO.

 

[Crow-mo]

I'd trade those picks everytime.

 

[Seanason]

Sav Rocca was a good player

I thought Marcus Drum is fair - 8 games in his first 2 years, could still shape up to be a 100 game player.

Its a top list, but i would have included these 2

Which brings me to the question - are we looking for superstars in this draft or 100 game players?

 

[Crow-mo]

Sav Rocca was a good player

he was recycled by then.

Which brings me to the question - are we looking for superstars in this draft or 100 game players?

what we want, and what we get look like being different things.

 

[Vader]

he was recycled by then.

Even so, he was a good player for North Melbourne. I don't think that there would be too many Roos fans who think the club made a mistake by taking him with this draft pick.

Remember that he was given a guard of honour by both Collingwood and North Melbourne players when he left the ground at the end of his last game.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Even so, he was a good player for North Melbourne. I don't think that there would be too many Roos fans who think the club made a mistake by taking him with this draft pick.

Remember that he was given a guard of honour by both Collingwood and North Melbourne players when he left the ground at the end of his last game.

Agreed - Rocca was a good pick up by the Roos. Had a very good record.