How far is a bridge too far??

[Blueboys11]

My question is - How far is to far back to have a chance at claiming the overall honours.

I started off by planning my strategy around a cash league win ( grand prize $600), but have found myself after a couple of good weeks breaking into the top 1000 and about 750 points off the lead. I have 12 trades left, $330K in the bank and seem to have a number of variances to teams in the top 10 which gives you a chance of catching up.

Basically asking the question, cause if you can sniff overall victory then its prob worth going hard with the trading as this might set up you up for a late crack at it, on the flip side this may be to the detriment of a league win if late in the season injuries hit with no trades to make adjustments...

Im thinking of making a couple of trades now, seeing how the next few weeks pan out and then go from there i guess...

Interested in everyones thoughts on prior experience, as this is only my 2nd year of Supercoach.

 

[Jack4814]

Is 11,000th too far back to win it? ***

 

[Axe]

Standard thought is that you can make up around 100-110 points per week on the leaders with a good team (all things being equal) and you are well and truly within that zone.
I guess everyone in your boat has a tough decision to make as going for one will definitely be a detriment to the other...

 

[jayfaux]

I'm in kind of the same position, ranked around 440 in SC (and 781 in DT), but I've only got 11 trades left. I'm not trading this week but there's a real question as to whether I should just do the upgrades I can do now and just hope for the best. I guess it depends on how much crap your mates will give you if you lose your league

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Those variances are why they're the leaders and the rest of us aren't. However, see here.

 

[Blueboys11]

Those variances are why they're the leaders and the rest of us aren't. However, see here.

That is true, but those blokes who got them there, can just as easily be the reason why they drop back. i.e - Giansiracussa is not going to score 150 every week.

My point would be more to look for less mainstream premiums to trade towards thus giving you points of difference and a chance going forward.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

The winning teams very rarely have anything outside the usual BigFooty picks, they just happen to have most of the good ones and few of the bad ones. Going for unique picks for the sake of it is fraught with danger unless you're right up there at the pointy end and desperately need a point of difference. Otherwise, you're much better off just picking the players who represent the highest scoring potential at the lowest price, regardless of popularity.

 

[asanque]

As long as it is mathematically possible

Just like its mathematically possible for Richmond to make the 8.

 

[Stanton]

My question is - How far is to far back to have a chance at claiming the overall honours.

I started off by planning my strategy around a cash league win ( grand prize $600), but have found myself after a couple of good weeks breaking into the top 1000 and about 750 points off the lead. I have 12 trades left, $330K in the bank and seem to have a number of variances to teams in the top 10 which gives you a chance of catching up.

Basically asking the question, cause if you can sniff overall victory then its prob worth going hard with the trading as this might set up you up for a late crack at it, on the flip side this may be to the detriment of a league win if late in the season injuries hit with no trades to make adjustments...

Im thinking of making a couple of trades now, seeing how the next few weeks pan out and then go from there i guess...

Interested in everyones thoughts on prior experience, as this is only my 2nd year of Supercoach.

Even if your going for overall you still need to manage your trades carefully, many teams that trade too aggressively early fall over late in the season. Remember that towards the end of season there are more teams that 'rest players' and end of season surgery etc.

Personally i have dropped from around 300th to 2100 last 3 weeks. Im still within a 1000 points but need to start turning things around.

I think you need to be within a 1000 points at the halfway stage with good emergencys and a solid team, plus some trades in hand to be a sniff.

 

[lloyd136]

I've heard of people making up thousands of positions overall within a few weeks. My mate last year made some killer trades (ie. bringing in O'Keefe and Didak before they went on a rampage), averaged 2400 for a straight month or so, and went from 6,000th overall to 200th by the end of the year. All it takes is a great trade or two and some luck and you can make a charge.

 

[Shut up Flanders]

I think most of you guys are being far too optimistic. You can't forget, your chasing the best teams going around. Whenever you have a huge week, most of the top teams will have huge weeks. They're also making trades and their already strong teams are getting stronger by the week.

I'm coming 90th overall, 14 trades left and 460k in bank and don't give myself a chance in hell of winning. Although, I think that might just be me trying not to get over excited.

I'm not saying you can't make huge leaps in the overall rank but I think this years winner is probably in the top 100 already, but we shall wait and see....

 

[borrat]

i really hope whoever wins it this years actually contributes unlike last years winner or team director from dt

because more than likely it will be someone from here

 

[Hondo]

I think most of you guys are being far too optimistic. You can't forget, your chasing the best teams going around. Whenever you have a huge week, most of the top teams will have huge weeks. They're also making trades and their already strong teams are getting stronger by the week.

They are strong currently because their players are all firing however over the course of the season a different bunch of premiums will fire up and some the early season ones will drop off. That's where the late traders can make up ground.

There's no one perfect team for the whole season that just gets stronger and stronger. The best players for any 4 week stint change constantly. Injuries also play their part. Many teams sky rocketed last year on the back of ROK and Didak, including the winner.

If chappy does his hammy, Goodes fires up and Ceski drops off you watch for some big changes in the top 5000.

I doubt anyone currently in the top 100 will win it ... there's a big call! No offence to you mate as being ranked 90 with only 6 trades used is excellent. However, you must have had a dream run with the SC gods so far. There's still 15 rounds to go. However, I think the winner is definitely in the top 5000 and probably already in the top 1000.

 

[Parasite]

As long as it is mathematically possible

Just like its mathematically possible for Richmond to win a game.

Fixed that up for you.

 

[peteshep]

They are strong currently because their players are all firing however over the course of the season a different bunch of premiums will fire up and some the early season ones will drop off. That's where the late traders can make up ground.

There's no one perfect team for the whole season that just gets stronger and stronger. The best players for any 4 week stint change constantly. Injuries also play their part. Many teams sky rocketed last year on the back of ROK and Didak, including the winner.

If chappy does his hammy, Goodes fires up and Ceski drops off you watch for some big changes in the top 5000.

I doubt anyone currently in the top 100 will win it ... there's a big call! No offence to you mate as being ranked 90 with only 6 trades used is excellent. However, you must have had a dream run with the SC gods so far. There's still 15 rounds to go. However, I think the winner is definitely in the top 5000 and probably already in the top 1000.

Let's f***ing hope so!!!

 

[GUMBLETRON]

If chappy does his hammy, Goodes fires up and Ceski drops off you watch for some big changes in the top 5000.

A big change like everyone with Chapman trading him to Goodes and pocketing $300,000?

 

[abczyx666]

Nah, it will be more like Chappy has a one week rest for soreness and you hold on to him and every week he is expected to be back and you continue holding onto him knowing that he is a premium and not a good idea to sideways trade until it turn out after 3 weeks it is a 4-6 week injury.

With that, you will be relying on your emergencies and you will fall back into the pack again. Of course that's just a hypothetical situation which has occurred before.

 

[Hondo]

A big change like everyone with Chapman trading him to Goodes and pocketing $300,000?

Doubt Goodes will drop that low. Some Chappy owners will want to hold, others may not have the trades to take advantage of the situation. It doesn't matter if they get $200K spare to upgrade someone else. Point is, that the current Chappy advantage disappears. In fact the main point is that different premiums will get on hot streaks at different times so I don't think the current top 100 sides are immune from getting caught quickly.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Would be interesting to know from a historical stats view, just how far you can come back from based on what week.

E.g.

In week 1, 350k+ teams have a chance
By week 5 you might need to be in the top 10k
By week 10 you need to be in the top 500 etc

Above are just silly figures but it would be interesting to know so then you could formulate a backup plan and just go for a league win.

We all know that from wk 1 to 5, we all start using trades to bring in the same form players...the players up the top in the first place get a point adv and trade advantage. Also, the numbers of players differing from team to team starts to shrink, e.g. backline, is like one player from most of the top 1000 teams lol. Very hard to make ground if you only have 5 diff players or so. Also given everyone has Albett captain so no way to catch up there.

Surely from first rookie upgrades which is round 6/7, then the number of people who can win has significantly dropped...top 1000. E.g. if you are 2000th, then someone in the top 1000 already has all of your players except 1/2 so if you make ground, so too do they.

 

[Alfonz]

My only hope is for Ablett to play each week and score poorly (or at least for 2-3 weeks) ... i.e. none. I was coming about 400th without Ablett until this week, then I dropped to about 1700th. The week before when Ablett didn't play I went from 800th to 400th, so basicallly I am at the mercy of GAJ. Yes I know, it was a very, very stupid decision to not pick GAJ.

When I look at the top teams, they have all the logical players I want to bring in like Ablett, Swan, Chapman, Montagna ... so I don't really think I have a chance in hell unless I pick some alternatives and get extremely lucky. Some bastard like Sylvia or something, then I will more than likely go plummeting down the leaderboard even further.