Opinion How many current players are actually worth a top 3 pick in a trade?

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Makeshift Park

Makeshift Park

Norm Smith Medallist
SuperCoach Div 11+ Winner 2023 SuperCoach Tradeaholic
Aug 6, 2021
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Just a thought exercise based on the current available players.

There are obvious ones... Darcy, Sheezel, Daicos, Harley Reid, Curnow, Sam Taylor.

But how many more would you give up a top 3 pick for?
 
From a quick skim, every club has at least one player I would consider except Essendon and Richmond. Around 40 total. But it's contextual - the number would be higher for some clubs and lower for others depending on needs.
 

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GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Would legit be 50 players minimum I’d do a top 3 pick for.
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Agree that there's probably 40-50 at least. All the top teams would have at least five you'd give a top 3 pick for. Some with more miles on the clock but plenty still with 8-10 years in them.

Just remember how many top 3 picks have turned into pedestrian players or even busts over the last dozen drafts. So rather than take that risk you can get a guaranteed A grader ready to go.
 
Makeshift Park said:
Many of those would only have a couple years left in their prime tho, yeah?

So you’d do it if you were somehow in the premiership window AND had a top 3 pick?
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Nope. I think if you look the AFL has 50 players under age of 26 id give a pick 3 for. Some players in that range that many wouldny consider is Andrew Brayshaw, Will Ashcroft, Tom Green, LDU, Max Holmes, Izak Rankine, Will Day, Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and I could keep going til I get to 50 for sure :D

As a example from Freo id trade a top 3 pick for all of Treacy, Brayshaw, Serong, Young, Amiss and thats just 1 team
 
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West Coast - Reid, Allen
Fremantle - Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson
Port - JHF, Butters, Rozee
Crows - Rankine, Thilthorpe
Brisbane - Ashcroft, McCluggage
Gold Coast - King, Anderson, Rowell, Walter
Sydney - Warner, Heeney, Gulden
GWS - Green, Callaghan, Cadman, Taylor
Geelong - Holmes
Collingwood - Daicos
Hawks - Day
Melbourne - Petracca
Saints -
North - Sheezel, Wardlaw, Larkey, McKercher
Richmond - Bolton
Essendon - Merrett
Dogs - Bontempelli, JUH, Darcy
Carlton - Curnow, Walsh
 
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1990crow said:
West Coast - Reid, Allen
Fremantle - Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson
Port - JHF, Butters, Rozee
Crows - Rankine, Thilthorpe
Brisbane - Ashcroft, McCluggage
Gold Coast - King, Anderson, Rowell, Walter
Sydney - Warner, Heeney, Gulden
GWS - Green, Callaghan, Cadman
Geelong - Holmes
Collingwood - Daicos
Hawks - Day
Melbourne - Petracca
Saints -
North - Sheezel, Wardlaw, Larkey, McKercher
Richmond - Bolton
Essendon - Merrett
Dogs - Bontempelli, JUH, Darcy
Carlton - Curnow, Walsh
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Probably a few more talls … Treacy would go close, Mac Andrew? Jack Buckley?
 
1990crow said:
West Coast - Reid, Allen
Fremantle - Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson
Port - JHF, Butters, Rozee
Crows - Rankine, Thilthorpe
Brisbane - Ashcroft, McCluggage
Gold Coast - King, Anderson, Rowell, Walter
Sydney - Warner, Heeney, Gulden
GWS - Green, Callaghan, Cadman
Geelong - Holmes
Collingwood - Daicos
Hawks - Day
Melbourne - Petracca
Saints -
North - Sheezel, Wardlaw, Larkey, McKercher
Richmond - Bolton
Essendon - Merrett
Dogs - Bontempelli, JUH, Darcy
Carlton - Curnow, Walsh
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+ Kozzie, LDU, Taylor

Bont and Trac are interesting ones.

Both genuine superstars who've won countless games off their own back, but they're both 29 next year.

How many years' service can you count on them giving you while they're still in their prime?

Worth a top 3 pick for teams in the premiership window, but for everyone else?
 
Assuming that if you have a top 3 pick, you're a rebuilding club rather than a contender:

Adelaide - Rankine
Brisbane - Ashcroft
Carlton - Walsh, Curnow
Collingwood - N Daicos
Essendon - None
Fremantle - Treacy, Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson, Young
Geelong - Holmes
Gold Coast - B King, Anderson, Walter, Andrew, Rowell
GWS - T Green, Taylor, Cadman, Callaghan
Hawthorn - Day
Melbourne - Pickett
North Melbourne - Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKerrcher, Larkey, LDU
Port Adelaide - Butters, Rozee, JHF
Richmond - None
St Kilda - None
Sydney - Gulden, Warner, McDonald
West Coast - Reid, Allen
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Jamarra, Darcy
 

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Makeshift Park said:
+ Kozzie, LDU, Taylor

Bont and Trac are interesting ones.

Both genuine superstars who've won countless games off their own back, but they're both 29 next year.

How many years' service can you count on them giving you while they're still in their prime?

Worth a top 3 pick for teams in the premiership window, but for everyone else?
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Kozzie is a small forward, wouldn't pay that for him.
LDU good but not on level of others here.
Taylor granted. Updated.

Bontempelli could come in to your side over next two years and make you a flag threat. You pay for that.
Petracca is an interesting one. Could say the same, but seems more likely than Bont to not be that player over next 2 or 3 years.
 
Makeshift Park said:
Bont and Trac are interesting ones.

Both genuine superstars who've won countless games off their own back, but they're both 29 next year.

How many years' service can you count on them giving you while they're still in their prime?

Worth a top 3 pick for teams in the premiership window, but for everyone else?
Click to expand...
I had this thought last night and I think they'd both be worth it. At the very least they'd be massively helpful at propelling a club off the bottom and towards finals contention which would be hugely valuable for other players on the list. Both very durable, I reckon you would get at least 5 seasons of AA or near AA-contention from either, which is more quality football than you can reasonably safely assume than for most draft picks.

Plus, we've seen how quickly clubs can get off the bottom of the ladder and find themselves competing in recent years. Again, really just depends on how you assess the state of your list.

Heeney is in the same category but probably more questionable because of his lack of durability - he likely won't last as long as them, but is still potentially worth it if he's an obvious need.

I think A-graders 26 or younger are worth it. Above that age you'd have to consider their injury history, the state of your list, and how pressing a need they are.
 
Skipper_ said:
Assuming that if you have a top 3 pick, you're a rebuilding club rather than a contender:

Adelaide - Rankine
Brisbane - Ashcroft
Carlton - Walsh, Curnow
Collingwood - N Daicos
Essendon - None
Fremantle - Treacy, Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson, Young
Geelong - Holmes
Gold Coast - B King, Anderson, Walter, Andrew, Rowell
GWS - T Green, Taylor, Cadman, Callaghan
Hawthorn - Day
Melbourne - Pickett
North Melbourne - Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKerrcher, Larkey, LDU
Port Adelaide - Butters, Rozee, JHF
Richmond - None
St Kilda - None
Sydney - Gulden, Warner, McDonald
West Coast - Reid, Allen
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Jamarra, Darcy
Click to expand...
Would add Jye Amiss for Fremantle. Max King, Harry McKay , Naughton. Top forwards are worth a ton
 
1990crow said:
Kozzie is a small forward, wouldn't pay that for him.
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I'm not sure I'd give up a top 3 pick for Kozzie (would want an All Australian season first), but I disagree with this. Small forwards have been shown to be arguably more important than ever in recent years.

Hill won the Norm Smith last year. Fritsch isn't exactly a small (but medium forwards you traditionally also wouldn't give up that high a pick for) but kicked 6 in the 2021 Grand Final. Stengle was crucial for the Cats in 2022. Charlie Cameron was instrumental in turning the Lions into contenders. Likewise Papley is one of the most important players to Sydney's flag chances. Rankine can obviously have a big impact in the midfield but would probably still be worth it just as a forward.

Historically I agree you wouldn't give up such a high pick for a small forward, but I think that's changed in recent years.
 
Klink said:
For some reason this thread made me think of the Wayne Carey trade to Adelaide. How quickly things can go wrong with trading away a top 3 pick. Crows traded picks 2 and 18 for a 32 yo Carey who played a grand total of 28 games with them.

What were they thinking..
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Don't remind us of it!
 
Klink said:
For some reason this thread made me think of the Wayne Carey trade to Adelaide. How quickly things can go wrong with trading away a top 3 pick. Crows traded picks 2 and 18 for a 32 yo Carey who played a grand total of 28 games with them.

What were they thinking..
Click to expand...
To be fair, they were third on the ladder that year and got that pick for trading Kane Johnson to us. So in effect they traded a (requested) Kane Johnson for a Wayne Carey shot at the premiership.

In hindsight not the right move, but certainly un understandable gamble.
 
The Goon said:
To be fair, they were third on the ladder that year and got that pick for trading Kane Johnson to us. So in effect they traded a (requested) Kane Johnson for a Wayne Carey shot at the premiership.

In hindsight not the right move, but certainly un understandable gamble.
Click to expand...
It was extremely dumb in hindsight when Pavlich was wanting to come home.
 
Klink said:
For some reason this thread made me think of the Wayne Carey trade to Adelaide. How quickly things can go wrong with trading away a top 3 pick. Crows traded picks 2 and 18 for a 32 yo Carey who played a grand total of 28 games with them.

What were they thinking..
Click to expand...
Kangaroos had a great hand in 2002. #2, #8, #13 (Trade for Leigh Brown), #18, #25, #31, #38.

Sure, 2002 was a lousy year, but only a year earlier those picks garnered: Luke Ball, Jimmy Bartel, Nick Dal Santo, Shane Harvey, Steven Armstrong, Joel Reynolds and Ashley Hansen

Teams value the draft a LOT higher now.
 
Just from a Lions perspective right now I wouldn't be taking a top 3 pick for any of the players listed below.

If we weren't smack bang in the middle of a flag window I would be open to a top 3 pick for some of the older players on the list.. which realistically would not be offered for an older player anyway.

Kai Lohmann, Joe Daniher, Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry, Logan Morris, Cam Rayner, Keidean Coleman, Charlie Cameron, Jaspa Fletcher, Jack Payne, Harris Andrews, Darcy Wilmot, Josh Dunkley, Dayne Zorko, Eric Hipwood, Brandon Starcevich, Oscar McInerney.
 

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Opinion How many current players are actually worth a top 3 pick in a trade?

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