Opinion How many current players are actually worth a top 3 pick in a trade?

[javaguice]

Tom Barrass

37

Tom Barrass

Age

28

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197cm

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96kg

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Def

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Last 5

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12.2

3star

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8.8

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3.4

3star

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6.1

5star

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0.9

3star

MG

158.5

3star

D

10.1

3star

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8.0

3star

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2.1

2star

M

5.6

5star

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0.3

1star

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139.6

2star

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11.4

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7.2

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4.2

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0.4

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160.0

3star

is a no-brainer

 

[Lingsface]

Rankine, Ashcroft, Daicos, Walsh, Rozee, Butters, Larkey, Serong, Holmes, Sheezel, JHF, JUH, Reid, Mckercher, Pickett, Day, Weitering, Taylor, Green, Anderson, Rowell, King, Gulden, Bont, Petracca (last two to the right side)

 

[Sirlemsip]

Tom Barrass is a no-brainer

This suggestion was a no-brainer

 

[bluespooner]

Tom Barrass is a no-brainer

But the eagles have used their salary cap paying McGovern and Gaff; and in previous years Natanui. All the time short-changing Tom Barrass.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

It was extremely dumb in hindsight when Pavlich was wanting to come home.

He wasn't leaving all those sweet deals in WA.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

I'm not sure I'd give up a top 3 pick for Kozzie (would want an All Australian season first), but I disagree with this. Small forwards have been shown to be arguably more important than ever in recent years.

Hill won the Norm Smith last year. Fritsch isn't exactly a small (but medium forwards you traditionally also wouldn't give up that high a pick for) but kicked 6 in the 2021 Grand Final. Stengle was crucial for the Cats in 2022. Charlie Cameron was instrumental in turning the Lions into contenders. Likewise Papley is one of the most important players to Sydney's flag chances. Rankine can obviously have a big impact in the midfield but would probably still be worth it just as a forward.

Historically I agree you wouldn't give up such a high pick for a small forward, but I think that's changed in recent years.

Stengle is the best of them and I think he is just about Geelong's best player. He's certainly a better footballer than Holmes.

 

[HeHateMe]

Don't think just looking at top 10 player in the comp is the best way to go about it, very good players tend to be at their peak trade value between 23 - 26. Young enough to give their club 10 years and ready to go from day 1.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

List managers simply don't think this way.. AFL clubs tend to prefer to go to the draft, especially with a top 10 selection. It's viewed as the future for them.

Why would they trade the chance at drafting the next superstar for someone like a Holmes who was originally a pick 20 and has probably performed above that pick, but not certainly into the top 5 level of that draft... It just makes no sense

Based on the last 10 top 3 picks:

• 2023: Nick Watson (Western Jets)
• 2022: Harry Sheezel (Sandringham Dragons)
• 2021: Finn Callaghan (Oakleigh Chargers)
• 2020: Will Phillips (Oakleigh Chargers)
• 2019: Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
• 2018: Izak Rankine (West Adelaide)
• 2017: Paddy Dow (Bendigo Pioneers)
• 2016: Hugh McCluggage (North Ballarat Rebels)
• 2015: Callum Mills (North Shore)
• 2014: Angus Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons)

Holmes is better than 2 of those players (Phillips, Dow) and even with Callaghan.

Based on that, you have almost a 70% chance of drafting someone better than Holmes/Callghan with your pick 3

Surprise, surprise, guess who's in the AA squad? And how many aren't from your list?

It must be some mistake I guess, it's not like Holmes has become one of the top players from his draft class or anything.

 

[Golumless]

For some reason this thread made me think of the Wayne Carey trade to Adelaide. How quickly things can go wrong with trading away a top 3 pick. Crows traded picks 2 and 18 for a 32 yo Carey who played a grand total of 28 games with them.

What were they thinking..

Outside of the whole it was the pick Richmond sent over for Kane Johnston, and we desperately needed a key forward (seeing it was Welsh and some flotsam), it's also worth noting the pick was initially pick 4, and upgraded to pick 2 after we traded it due to Carlton draft sanctions.

A damn shame Carey had that freak injury with his neck that retired him as he was starting to kick back into form when he went, but alas.

 

[jackag24]

Surprise, surprise, guess who's in the AA squad? And how many aren't from your list?

It must be some mistake I guess, it's not like Holmes has become one of the top players from his draft class or anything.

Imagine still caring about this lol

Lots of players make AA teams and squads every year. It does not mean they are worth a top 3 pick.

Darcy Byrne Jones was an AA half back too. Hand over a top 10 pick for him you mug

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Imagine still caring about this lol

Lots of players make AA teams and squads every year. It does not mean they are worth a top 3 pick.

Darcy Byrne Jones was an AA half back too. Hand over a top 10 pick for him you mug

So....how come only one of the players on your list of recent pick 3s who are so much better than Holmes made it?

 

[jackag24]

So....how come only one of the players on your list of recent pick 3s who are so much better than Holmes made it?

You are really having a tough time with the fact that I'm not slobbering all over Max Holmes c*ck. Get some help

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

There are to many to mention that a club would give up a pick 3 for

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

You are really having a tough time with the fact that I'm not slobbering all over Max Holmes c*ck. Get some help

Shall we look at it the other way then? Only eight of the players selected for the 2024 All-Australian squad were selected with pick 1-3 and I'm even including Nick Daicos who "would have been" a top 2 pick in the open market.

Looking at the drafts from 2010-22, only six featured a player in the top three who made the 2024 AA squad...again eight players from 13 drafts, or eight from 104 selections was playing at something approaching an elite level in the AFL if you look at it that way. So why is a top three pick so priceless again?

 

[jackag24]

Shall we look at it the other way then? Only eight of the players selected for the 2024 All-Australian squad were selected with pick 1-3 and I'm even including Nick Daicos who "would have been" a top 2 pick in the open market.

Looking at the drafts from 2010-22, only six featured a player in the top three who made the 2024 AA squad...again eight players from 13 drafts, or eight from 104 selections was playing at something approaching an elite level in tge AFL if you look at it that way. So why is a top three pick so priceless again?

I'm not reading all that

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'm not reading all that

Well thanks for letting me know. You could have just gone with a crying laughie.

 

[THE_GUN]

Picks are over rated

How many pick 3's in the last 20 years would be worth #3 at career end

 

[rapidfire7]

Would legit be 50 players minimum I’d do a top 3 pick for.

Agreed. Proven AFL top line players > early draft picks, cause there is always a risk they will bust at AFL level. Happens a little too often really.

 

[THE_GUN]

2010 - Swallow , Day , Bennell
2011 - Patton , Coniglio , Tyson
2012 - Whitfield , O'Rourke , Plowman
2013 - Boyd , Kelly , Billings
2014 - McCartin , Petracca , Brayshaw
2015 - Wietering , Schache , Mills
2016 - McGrath , Taranto , McCluggage
2017 -Raynor , Brayshaw , Dow
2018 - Walsh , Lukosius , Rankin
2019 - Rowell , Anderson , Jackson
2020 - JUH , Thilthorpe , Phillips
2021 - JHF , Darcy . Callaghan

21 players that definitely wouldn't be worth a top 3 pick today
6 100% is a YES
9 are Maybe

So yes picks are over rated and known quality is money in the bank

 

[hawkinoz]

What am I missing?

Any player picked in draft and who seems to be tracking to potential, display great work ethic & is committed should be ranked far higher than wherever they were picked.

If they are 2-3 yrs in, 30+ games under the belt and seems like a standard 200 game player with 10 yrs ahead of them, then easily top 10 pick.

If this same player seems to be AA squad quality then Top 3 pick easily.

If they are the type who will easily walk into atleast half of the AFL team Top 5 players, then they are worth Top 3 + another top 10 pick.

Draft is lottery and players who clubs have spent times developing and have proven their skills should be worth multiple top 10 picks, as they age their draft value can go down.

From Hawks, I won't give up most of top 10 players for even a single Top 3 pick.
Newk, CMac, Mackenzie, Weddle, Watson, Massimo, Dear, Moore,

Will need a Top 10 + extra for the below
Meek, Worpel, Nash, Sicily, Hardwick, Lewis, Ginni, Chol, Amon

Every club will have a similar list

 

[AFDogs]

Hmmmmm.

Sheezel, Butters, Darcy, N Daicos, JHF, Reid, Rankine, Ashcroft, Wardlaw, maybe Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The way I look at it is if - by some freak situation - a given AFL player (and only that player) became available for the draft, happy to go to whichever team picked him..etc...etc. I'm also discounting the age factor, as in "It will be at least 3-4 years until this team is competitive, bringing in Bontempelli or Cripps would be a complete waste of time." Would he go top 3? And my thinking is "Do you get more production out of 3-5 more years of Cripps/Bont, than a full career out of a given pick 1-3?"

Players in their late 20s/early 30s, I'd find it a bit harder to justify, but superstars in their mid-20s, or budding stars in their teens or early-20s, I'd absolutely do it in most cases. Like I'd do it for most of the 22 under 22 team: Weddle, Wanganeen-Milera etc. In a heartbeat.

Without looking too closely, I'd say most years. 1-2 of the top three picks doesn't pan out at all. So I'm taking the guy who'll hit the ground ready to go and give me 100-200 games of high quality-to elite production, over a 33-66% chance of a misfire. No doubt in my mind.

 

[NeutralFan]

All I've got from this is Sam Taylor

15

Sam Taylor

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.1

4star

MG

130.5

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.5

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

60.8

1star

D

8.6

3star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.8

5star

MG

110.8

2star

has become the most overrated player

 

[NeutralFan]

A good 40 odd players that being said are worth a Top 3 pick

 

[RonnieRaven]

From freo
Brayshaw(24)
Mvp AA bnf plug in and play captain
Serong(23)
AA Bnf captain worthy
Amiss(21)
Freo leading goal kicker
Nearly 50 games and 100 goals still a couple years from entering his prime
Young(23)
189cm mid AA squad
his best is game changing
Jackson(22)
AA squad 200cm game changer
Yet to enter prime

All durable, originally picked inside the top 10 and have the bulk of their career ahead of them.

I wouldn’t trade any of them for pick 3 as their value to freo exceeds that.

Others that easily come to mind for freo to bring in
Rozee butters JHF
Gulden Warner
Daicos B.King JUH S Darcy
Taylor