I hate to kill the optimism... (BetaVersion, 2008)

[Bartram_Class]

For those who are young and rash, and unaware of my Nostradamus abilities, I implore you to check out this thread's 2007 edition -

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=395291&highlight=I+hate+to+kill+the+optimism

Where I made the following predictions for the following season -

- Neitz is on his last legs, high chance he won't see the year out.
- No obvious replacement when the above occurs.
- Carroll is not a good team's FB (see - 07 Trading Period, no-one would lay a hand on him)
- Rivers wil get injured at some point, lets just face the fact. No CHB that can replace him.
- McLean had a horrid '07, broken foot or not.
- No Travis Johnstone, no silky skilled midfielders left. (don't argue this fact, its true)
- Moloney's OP is no better and will continue to be that way.
- Sylvia was a waste of Pick 3. Three good games a year doesn't cut it.
- Jones is very likely to have a down year after the great '07 he had.
- White can't go on as a No. 1 for much longer, the three stooges we have in the wings don't inspire much confidence.
- We're still soft. We've lost Pickett and Godfrey, the two players on the team not afraid to get stuck in.
- The new coach thinks Miller is going to be a decent player and seems keen to give him game time.
- Junior McDonald is a tremendous player to have at the club and deserves both B&F's hes won but if he wins another, rest assured it will also come with a wooden spoon. Why can't a Cameron Bruce or Brad Green step up and win one?
- Bohdan is still here.

Ladder Prediction - 15/16th.

Considering that was posted in November 2007, not a bad effort if I can say so myself.

But "what about 2009" I hear you scream....well here you go.

- Grimes to come on nicely and displace Jones in the side.
- Jones to struggle with his form and get dropped down to Sandy about mid-year.
- McLean to mark himself as elite, go close to AA, taking the B&F in a canter. Morton 2nd.
- Sylvia to kick 40+ goals, in a break-out year. Yze-esque role in the forward line.
- Rivers to break down mid-year and retire.
- Wonaeamirri to be delisted, Valenti discarded at years end.
- Frawley to replace Warnock at FB, Warnock a regular at Casey by years end.
- Another Debt Demolition campaign in August/September.
- Membership to stagnate at about 26,000. Multitude of reasons why.
- One of Garland and Martin to be given a serious try up forward, to little success. We will still struggle to kick winning scores.
- PJ to take the number 1 mantle, Meesen and Jamar playing 9/10 games apiece. Spencer promoted at years end, possibly even during the year if injuries occur.
- Cheney to be the bolter, straight swap for Whelan on the back flank.
- Bohdan is still here.

15th.

Now go on, take the bait, lets get some healthy discussion going on.

Just remember, humble pie will be served down the line.

Note that there is a lot more optimism than last year's version, frankly because things could hardly get much worse.

 

[Headless]

I can see a lot of your predictions coming true but, Wonaeamirri delisted?

 

[demonfire]

i dont think woenamirri would get delisted after a year. seems to have a good head on his shoulders and i think the only thing that would get him delisted would be his weight. otherwise i think his natural football ability will keep him in the team.

if rivers breaks down again i'd be very disappointed. im hoping it doesnt happen again and i have enough faith that i believe it wont as well.

with the ruck scenario i can definitely see PJ being number 1 but i think jamar will be there for the majority, and unless we're really struggling i dont think meesen will get more than 4 or 5 games, potentially even less.

 

[demonfire]

i also think that if grimes was to play seniors consistently it would only help jones. the more quality around him the less attention he will receive from the opposition.
i reckon he will actually have a better season than last with less attention and our midfield becoming stronger.

 

[Bartram_Class]

i also think that if grimes was to play seniors consistently it would only help jones. the more quality around him the less attention he will receive from the opposition.
i reckon he will actually have a better season than last with less attention and our midfield becoming stronger.

You'd hope so, McLean went through a similar period and came out stronger.

The difference between those two though being that McLean can do a lot more damage with his possessions, he's not merely an extractor (until Jones can improve his disposal, he is a bit one-dimensional).

Remains to be seen, I still believe his '09 will be a bit mixed.

 

[Brock the legend]

i cant see half of them coming true, but then again, this time last year i wouldnt have either

i hope u eat ur words on wonna and rivers and jones

 

[Bartram_Class]

I can see a lot of your predictions coming true but, Wonaeamirri delisted?

Pretty confident about this one unfortunately. Hear me out.

There have been only a few short, stocky Aboriginals/Islanders that have made it in the AFL. Pickett was one, Rioli was another and perhaps Sampi, whose weight fluctuated quite drastically at times. Pickett was the only one of those three who really succeeded, but he had brains to match the natural instinct that Wonna has in bags.

I fear with a bit more attention, he will start to fade in most matches and I'm not sure he'd have the fitness base, nor the football knowledge, to get himself back in it. Case in point, Aaron Davey, he went through a period where he couldn't find the ball, so he was pushed up the ground, he had the pace and developed the endurance to make it work.

Could Wonna do similar? I have my reservations. Not only is he naturally bigger, but he doesn't have the searing pace either. He's not slow, but he's no Cyril Rioli. Most of his goals last year came from being in the right place at the right time, not so much burning opponents off.

Was interesting to read he spent plenty of time playing off a HBF before he was drafted, perhaps he could be re-invented if it doesnt work out.

The last thing about Aussie is that I'm not sure how easy it would be for him to get back into the side if he was dropped, his natural role means he wouldn't dominate a VFL match by any means.

Be interesting to see how he goes.

 

[Bartram_Class]

with the ruck scenario i can definitely see PJ being number 1 but i think jamar will be there for the majority, and unless we're really struggling i dont think meesen will get more than 4 or 5 games, potentially even less.

Unless?

I take it you expect us to be challenging then?

 

[CaptainDavey]

To be fair it's a lot easier to predict a shithouse season from Melbourne than it is to predict a season of complete and utter domination

 

[RandB]

- Neitz is on his last legs, high chance he won't see the year out.

Most people knew this.

- No obvious replacement when the above occurs.

Many supporters have trumpeted McLean for much of the year as he has been a stand out leader. Green or Bruce have also been other strong candidates.

- Carroll is not a good team's FB (see - 07 Trading Period, no-one would lay a hand on him)

Most people knew this.

- Rivers wil get injured at some point, lets just face the fact. No CHB that can replace him.

ok so Rivers was injured but we replaced him with some up and coming defenders who did quite well.

- McLean had a horrid '07, broken foot or not.

This had no bearing on '08

- No Travis Johnstone, no silky skilled midfielders left. (don't argue this fact, its true)

Losing TJ wasn't the difference in coming 16th or not.

- Moloney's OP is no better and will continue to be that way.

Moloney is susceptible to injury and we did lose him - go figure.

- Sylvia was a waste of Pick 3. Three good games a year doesn't cut it.

Sylvia improved in '08 a fair bit.

- Jones is very likely to have a down year after the great '07 he had.

At first I was going to state this as your best genuine prediction BC but the fact is that Jones didn't have the support he deserved with other mids injured. Either way I'll pay this one with reservation.

- White can't go on as a No. 1 for much longer, the three stooges we have in the wings don't inspire much confidence.

This was on the mark.

- We're still soft. We've lost Pickett and Godfrey, the two players on the team not afraid to get stuck in.

If by "soft" you mean young then sure.

- The new coach thinks Miller is going to be a decent player and seems keen to give him game time.

This worked out quite well and in contrast to your adamant belief that Miller should have been moved to CHB it was a great decision to get him to play to his strengths up forward.

- Junior McDonald is a tremendous player to have at the club and deserves both B&F's hes won but if he wins another, rest assured it will also come with a wooden spoon. Why can't a Cameron Bruce or Brad Green step up and win one?

Bruce won B&F so this point is redundant.

- Bohdan is still here.

Don't know much about this bloke or whether we can measure the direct impact he had (if any) in '08 - I'll take your word for it.

Ladder Prediction - 15/16th.

At the end of the day, this is what your whole list was about and I didn't think we would come 16th so I'll pay this but I wouldn't go so far as to say that you made ground breaking predictions (if any). You raised some undeniable facts such as old/injury prone players and extended them a bit. The main reason we sucked so much was due to being a young list with a new game plan and a less than desirable pre-season under Bailey. Topped off with the injuries you "predicted" this is why we struggled.

 

[Bartram_Class]

Exactly, my point at the time was predominantly in response to the avalanche of positivity on the board. I was trying to put a more realistic spin on things, we were in a bad shape.

In essence, a similar thread this year isn't required, but its fun to predict things.

 

[RandB]

Exactly, my point at the time was predominantly in response to the avalanche of positivity on the board. I was trying to put a more realistic spin on things, we were in a bad shape.

In essence, a similar thread this year isn't required, but its fun to predict things.

The difference being that in your new list you have made actual predictions instead of just (mostly) outlining facts.

Either way you do deserve some kudos as there were a lot of people who thought we would go much better and not many people picked us for 16th.

Just out of curiosity who do you think will come 16th next year BC, I may have to lay some $$$.

 

[The Dr]

- Grimes to come on nicely and displace Jones in the side.
Agree with you in that Grimes will come along nicely but think Jones will keep his place in the side. With some skilled outside mids coming on, I think Jones will revel in the role of extractor rather than trying to do it all himself.

- Jones to struggle with his form and get dropped down to Sandy about mid-year.
Disagree. See above.

- McLean to mark himself as elite, go close to AA, taking the B&F in a canter. Morton 2nd.
I certainly hope so mate, considering he was close to that before he got injured this season. Hopefully as skipper.

- Sylvia to kick 40+ goals, in a break-out year. Yze-esque role in the forward line.
This is something I really want to happen but I wouldn't hold my breath. IF he has a full pre-season and doesn't produce, it might be time to send him off.

- Rivers to break down mid-year and retire.
A complete hypothetical. Could easily happen as easy as it might not. For our sake, god i hope he's fit.

- Wonaeamirri to be delisted, Valenti discarded at years end.
Wona - even if he has a shocker won't be delisted. Last year was his first AFL preseason so another should have him fit enough to run games out. My thoughts on Valenti aren't concrete yet. Like the kid but think we've got enough of similar, but better, inside mids.

- Frawley to replace Warnock at FB, Warnock a regular at Casey by years end.
This could happen especially if Rivers is fit. IF we get Rivers, Warnock, Garland, Martin and Frawley fit, you'd think one would miss out and it may be Warnock.

- Another Debt Demolition campaign in August/September.
Won' happen.

- Membership to stagnate at about 26,000. Multitude of reasons why. Can't see this happening either considering we've had two SHOCKING years on and off the field yet still cracked 30,000.

- One of Garland and Martin to be given a serious try up forward, to little success. We will still struggle to kick winning scores.
Might be worth a shot.

- PJ to take the number 1 mantle, Meesen and Jamar playing 9/10 games apiece. Spencer promoted at years end, possibly even during the year if injuries occur.
PJ No.1 for sure, Meesen hopefully will rot in the 2s.

- Cheney to be the bolter, straight swap for Whelan on the back flank.
Agree mate although I'd love to see Maric star on the HFF.

- Bohdan is still here.
True.

 

[Bartram_Class]

The difference being that in your new list you have made actual predictions instead of just (mostly) outlining facts.

Either way you do deserve some kudos as there were a lot of people who thought we would go much better and not many people picked us for 16th.

Just out of curiosity who do you think will come 16th next year BC, I may have to lay some $$$.

Essendon for me.

West Coast and Sydney to round out the rest of the bottom four.

 

[Beats]

Essendon for me.

West Coast and Sydney to round out the rest of the bottom four.

I'm going to lay a sneaky dollar or two on Port Adelaide who will probably have very good odds, hear me out.
Their forwardline has serious questions over it, they have as many decent KPF who can play AFL as we do(The Westhoff's are not KP, they are third talls), Motlop + Ebert will pretty much hold their forwardline together.
Their backline is either young or old, there is no in-between, the young players are good without being stars, the older players will drop off.
Their ruck division is just as bad as ours, Lade is past it, Brogan is over-rated and I rate him on level with Jamar, they don't even have a back up to these two(Giles/Lobbe can play ruck but are in a similar position to Spencer).
Their midfield is decent, but is extremely hit and miss in terms of consistency.
Finally imo they don't really look to have too much heart and/or a tough edge to them.
I'd think it would be a bottom four of Port, us, Fremantle and Essendon.

 

[demonfire]

Unless?

I take it you expect us to be challenging then?

sorry.
unless we're really struggling for a ruckman. 1 of pj and jamar would have to get injured and still i think we would probably use spencer or stef martin over messen. he will struggle again to have an effect at casey and will make a couple of appearances if an injury happens but we will end up going with martin or even spencer in my opinion.

 

[Bartram_Class]

I'm going to lay a sneaky dollar or two on Port Adelaide who will probably have very good odds, hear me out.
Their forwardline has serious questions over it, they have as many decent KPF who can play AFL as we do(The Westhoff's are not KP, they are third talls), Motlop + Ebert will pretty much hold their forwardline together.
Their backline is either young or old, there is no in-between, the young players are good without being stars, the older players will drop off.
Their ruck division is just as bad as ours, Lade is past it, Brogan is over-rated and I rate him on level with Jamar, they don't even have a back up to these two(Giles/Lobbe can play ruck but are in a similar position to Spencer).
Their midfield is decent, but is extremely hit and miss in terms of consistency.
Finally imo they don't really look to have too much heart and/or a tough edge to them.
I'd think it would be a bottom four of Port, us, Fremantle and Essendon.

Yep, Port is a good call.

Only thing they have going for them is a super coach. I don't rate Westhoff incredibly highly either, and his brother is too young to make an impact just yet. They could very well be down there with us.

 

[Australia]

Pretty confident about this one unfortunately. Hear me out.

There have been only a few short, stocky Aboriginals/Islanders that have made it in the AFL. Pickett was one, Rioli was another and perhaps Sampi, whose weight fluctuated quite drastically at times. Pickett was the only one of those three who really succeeded, but he had brains to match the natural instinct that Wonna has in bags.

I fear with a bit more attention, he will start to fade in most matches and I'm not sure he'd have the fitness base, nor the football knowledge, to get himself back in it. Case in point, Aaron Davey, he went through a period where he couldn't find the ball, so he was pushed up the ground, he had the pace and developed the endurance to make it work.

Could Wonna do similar? I have my reservations. Not only is he naturally bigger, but he doesn't have the searing pace either. He's not slow, but he's no Cyril Rioli. Most of his goals last year came from being in the right place at the right time, not so much burning opponents off.

Was interesting to read he spent plenty of time playing off a HBF before he was drafted, perhaps he could be re-invented if it doesnt work out.

The last thing about Aussie is that I'm not sure how easy it would be for him to get back into the side if he was dropped, his natural role means he wouldn't dominate a VFL match by any means.

Be interesting to see how he goes.

Im just going to say, as an opposition supporter who keeps a keen eye on the Demons (therefore not knowing as much as you would about your players)

But footy smarts always beats pace. It's not chance he was in the right position for goals, he followed the basics, front and centre of the marking contest. You obviously know your team and know their faults but if you think Wonaeamirri can't make it based on his pace? then you don't understand the game, not every black guy has to be fast, Pickett was never fast and never had a huge engine. He knew where to run to and knew how to impose himself.

Footy smarts >>>>>>>> than blistering pace....
From a Melbourne perspective..... (chisolm had blistering pace, didn't help him, you would rather a guy with footy smarts surely)
Wonaeamirri won't be delisted at the end of this season.

 

[w00dy]

I think Aussie could end up playing in the back pocket for us if he struggles up forward, especially when Maric develops and Whelan retires.

He played there in the U18 championships, and did a good job by all accounts. Named NT's best player I believe. He could fill a David Wirrapunda type role down back for us.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Here you go Mr optimism(BC), your least favourite player (3rd from the left) up & about having a run

Good to see PJ running as well, must be recovering from that hip surgery alright.

 

[Bartram_Class]

Here you go Mr optimism(BC), your least favourite player (3rd from the left) up & about having a run

Good to see PJ running as well, must be recovering from that hip surgery alright.

Save that picture mate, will be worth a fortune. We don't get to see the great man off crutches often.

Who are the two on left? Is the one next to Riv Danny Hughes?

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

No idea, my first thought was that it looked like CJ....

Could be Hughes, we know he's training with us. Whoever it is is about as tall as Rivers. No idea who's under the hat

 

[Bartram_Class]

No idea, my first thought was that it looked like CJ....

Could be Hughes, we know he's training with us. Whoever it is is about as tall as Rivers. No idea who's under the hat

My other thought was that it could have been Spencer, but hes 202 and whilst that lad is hunching over a bit, hes not 200cm plus.

Perhaps Cheney under the hat.

 

[master bate]

Firstly some of these were observations and not predictions, but let's look at it.

- Neitz is on his last legs, high chance he won't see the year out.
- No obvious replacement when the above occurs. Don't think anyone argued there
- Carroll is not a good team's FB (see - 07 Trading Period, no-one would lay a hand on him) Yep, but an observation not a prediction
- Rivers wil get injured at some point, lets just face the fact. No CHB that can replace him. Yes he got injured, but we've shown he is somewhat replaceable, half marks
- McLean had a horrid '07, broken foot or not. 08 form showed you wrote him off too much in 07
- No Travis Johnstone, no silky skilled midfielders left. (don't argue this fact, its true) Agree, easy observation
- Moloney's OP is no better and will continue to be that way. Completely wrong, his OP is fine and he played some good games before a shoulder injury - Wrong
- Sylvia was a waste of Pick 3. Three good games a year doesn't cut it. Wrong, still hasn't done much but is leagues above Farren Ray and others in that draft, typical Melbourne luck
- Jones is very likely to have a down year after the great '07 he had. Got that one right
- White can't go on as a No. 1 for much longer, the three stooges we have in the wings don't inspire much confidence. Surely this was an observation, but I was a founding member in the White is passed it club. Jamar and PJ not inspiring confidence, but also not horrible.
- We're still soft. We've lost Pickett and Godfrey, the two players on the team not afraid to get stuck in. Another observation, but agression barely matters when your skills are horrible, hopefully McLean, Moloney, Whelan, Jones, Miller can bring some agression in 09
- The new coach thinks Miller is going to be a decent player and seems keen to give him game time. Can't work out if you are agreeing or disagreeing with Bailey on this one
- Junior McDonald is a tremendous player to have at the club and deserves both B&F's hes won but if he wins another, rest assured it will also come with a wooden spoon. Why can't a Cameron Bruce or Brad Green step up and win one? Another observation, no predictions here
- Bohdan is still here. Good observation, but you didn't predict he would be in a much lesser role by 09 preseason

Correct predictions - 1.5

As for your 2009 ones it will be interesting, I hope you are right on the positive ones, and wrong on the negative ones.

Also I'm confident that PJ won't become the number one ruckman. He may well be the first picked with Jamar and Meesen splitting the rest of the games, but we are in trouble if he in the number one in the ruck for 60%+ of a game. I just don't think he has the ability in the ruck contests that number 1's need. For his total lack of coordination and the number of times he stuffs up around the ground Jamar aint too bad at the ruck contests.

 

[Bartram_Class]

Keep on the lookout for Moloney's OP incidentally, I'm not yet ready to believe he is fully over it.

Ditto Sylvia.