Analysis Inexperience watch

[fanackapan]

Hold onto your socks, folks. We're more experienced and older this week than our opponents. Not enough to be a statistically significant indicator of favouritism, but nonetheless, its not something that has been very common in recent years. In reality, the teams are fairly close in age profiles, both numerically and in the fact that most of their experience and age are in one (Hodge) or two (Harbrow & Rischitelli) players.

I'm working on the following assumptions for team lists. I'll refine my numbers once the final teams are named.
Lions In: McStay, Lester
Lions Out: Mayes, Mathieson
Suns In: none
Suns Out: none

Round 5 Lions vs Suns at Gabba, 22 April, 2018
(0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Suns 1)
0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 6
25 to 49 games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 1
50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Suns 9
100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Suns 4
200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 2
Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 83 vs. Suns 74.1 (= +9.0 games on average)
Average age - Lions 24.4 vs. Suns 24.2 (= +0.2 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.1cm vs. Suns 188.2cm (= -0.1cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 88.5kg vs. Suns 86.3kg (= +2.2kg on average)

 

[Jivlain]

Hold onto your socks, folks. We're more experienced and older this week than our opponents. Not enough to be a statistically significant indicator of favouritism, but nonetheless, its not something that has been very common in recent years. In reality, the teams are fairly close in age profiles, both numerically and in the fact that most of their experience and age are in one (Hodge) or two (Harbrow & Rischitelli) players.

I'm working on the following assumptions for team lists. I'll refine my numbers once the final teams are named.
Lions In: McStay, Lester
Lions Out: Mayes, Mathieson
Suns In: none
Suns Out: none

Round 5 Lions vs Suns at Gabba, 22 April, 2018
(0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Suns 1)
0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 6
25 to 49 games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 1
50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Suns 9
100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Suns 4
200+ games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 2
Extra stats:
Average games played - Lions 83 vs. Suns 74.1 (= +9.0 games on average)
Average age - Lions 24.4 vs. Suns 24.2 (= +0.2 years on average)
Average height - Lions 188.1cm vs. Suns 188.2cm (= -0.1cm on average)
Average weight - Lions 88.5kg vs. Suns 86.3kg (= +2.2kg on average)

Btw, Nick Holman played a few previous games for Carlton before being drafted by Gold Coast, he's up to 10 games now
Few other groups I'm uncertain about - I see Hipwood and Cutler in the 25-49 region too.
And they lose Hall (100) games, yet still have Swallow (101), Day (102), May (110) & Lynch (125).

I have it:

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 3 vs. Gold Coast 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Gold Coast 5
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 2 vs. Gold Coast 1
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Gold Coast 9
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Gold Coast 4
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Gold Coast 3

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 81.64 vs. Gold Coast 82.04 (= -0.41 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24 vs. Gold Coast 24.6 (= -0.6 years on average)

 

[Jivlain]

That tackle gap is so totally us. Thank God for Zorko and Robbo. And Berry, hugely impressive and next in line.

 

[Jivlain]

Last week it was the tackle count that was totally us. This week, it's the draft index which is so totally GWS.

But seriously, they're 1.8 years older, 28 games wiser, and have 13 top-20 draft picks compared to our six.

 

[dlanod]

Last week it was the tackle count that was totally us. This week, it's the draft index which is so totally GWS.

But seriously, they're 1.8 years older, 28 games wiser, and have 13 top-20 draft picks compared to our six.

But we've got four players taller than any of their's!

 

[Jivlain]

But we've got four players taller than any of their's!

Carlton may have recruited GWS' reserves but we got the giants.

 

[Dalions]

But we've got four players taller than any of their's!

Gotta count for something.......Right?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Gotta count for something.......Right?

Hopefully not a repeat of David and Goliath.

 

[Viceregal]

Hopefully not a repeat of David and Goliath.

Does it help that we have Me Taylor to cover the other end as well?

 

[Jivlain]

Round 7 Lions vs Scum at Gabba, 6 May, 2018

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Collingwood 3)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 8 vs. Collingwood 5
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 2 vs. Collingwood 4
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Collingwood 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Collingwood 8
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Collingwood 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 76.6 vs. Collingwood 93 (= -16.4 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.3 vs. Collingwood 25 (= -0.7 years on average)
• Height - Brisbane 189.3 vs. Collingwood 188.7 (= +0.6 on average)
• Weight - Brisbane 88.7 vs. Collingwood 87.9 (= +0.8 on average)

It's not often we have the most prolific goalkicker on field. But while the Pies don't have any massive goalkickers, but they sure do have a lot of them. Their ability to rebound and then score just through their midfield is going to be a challenge for us defensively.

 

[dlanod]

Can we get a graph of "Reality TV competitions won"?

 

[Jivlain]

Can we get a graph of "Reality TV competitions won"?

If we include former players we can stretch our lead further, Fevola is clearly a much better player than silly Dane Swan. Capper popping out of his hotpants rather does let the side down though.

 

[Lace Out]

Can we get a graph of "Reality TV competitions won"?

How about miles flown ?

 

[Jivlain]

It has recently come to my attention that Rob Dickson, who played two games for the Bears, won Survivor. So that puts us at 3-0 in reality wins.

 

[Dylan12]

It has recently come to my attention that Rob Dickson, who played two games for the Bears, won Survivor. So that puts us at 3-0 in reality wins.

Has sadly passed away at way too young an age.

 

[tdyen]

Given Brisbane has had an experience lack for a while or seems to have. Why didn't they recruit experienced average players to plug the experience gap while they developed? Or did they and I've missed it. I haven't watched Brisbanes list that much.
Richmond did it with some real Gap players like Thomas from Port.

 

[BigCat2]

Given Brisbane has had an experience lack for a while or seems to have. Why didn't they recruit experienced average players to plug the experience gap while they developed? Or did they and I've missed it. I haven't watched Brisbanes list that much.
Richmond did it with some real Gap players like Thomas from Port.

Like Bastinac? Bell? Frost? Walker? All brought in 2-3 years ago and none playing regularly this year.

We've had some good quality experienced recruits though - Beams, Christensen, Robinson, Cameron, Stefan Martin and for different purpose Hodge.

We're in for the long haul - hence the first group mentioned aren't getting games at the moment.

 

[briztoon]

Given Brisbane has had an experience lack for a while or seems to have. Why didn't they recruit experienced average players to plug the experience gap while they developed? Or did they and I've missed it. I haven't watched Brisbanes list that much.
Richmond did it with some real Gap players like Thomas from Port.

Pretty hard to recruit people who don't want to come.

Brisbane is pretty much a last chance saloon, but we do have standards.

 

[tdyen]

Hadn't heard of Frost Walker and Bell. You seem to have done similar to Richmond, recruit some pretty ordinary bigger bodied role players. We had quite a few under Hardwick for 1 or 2 years each to flesh out the list. From those names you said it's 10 or so of the 40 on the list and 6 or 7 are genuine recruits not top ups. We tended not to keep top ups for long though.

 

[Skoob]

Given Brisbane has had an experience lack for a while or seems to have. Why didn't they recruit experienced average players to plug the experience gap while they developed? Or did they and I've missed it. I haven't watched Brisbanes list that much.
Richmond did it with some real Gap players like Thomas from Port.

When Richmond started recruiting 'gap fillers' like Thomas, they were playing finals, not "while they were developing". That's the time to do it, when your core is pushing for finals and there are a few missing pieces. We're still building a new core. Topping up doesn't build a team, it fleshes it out. That's just not where we're up to.

 

[Skoob]

Looking back through the better sides, the age spread tends to look along the lines of 11 - 13 players in the 23 - 27 year old bracket with 3 to 5 under 23, a few between 27 & 30 and a couple of veterans.
That core of 23-27 year olds is the stand out common theme (with a couple of exceptions to the rule. Obviously the quality of the players and actual games experience is important). With that as a guide, we are 2 years away as most expect.

 

[jackess]

Will be interesting this week.

 

[Dalions]

Will be interesting this week.

I opened this thread thinking 'this will be interesting'.
And that is exactly what I got.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Jivlain ?

 

[Jivlain]

Gosh, no rest for the wicked this week.

Pretty usual thing this week, big gap between the experience in the sides and you'd probably expect a belting.



Hey wait a second, there...

Bit odd that Eagles wasn't credited with any tackles, I remember him smashing a few pies. But that's what the official records say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

• (0 to 10 games - Bulldogs 5 vs. Brisbane 4)
• 0 to 24 games - Bulldogs 7 vs. Brisbane 6
• 25 to 49 games - Bulldogs 5 vs. Brisbane 2
• 50 to 99 games - Bulldogs 6 vs. Brisbane 7
• 100 to 199 games - Bulldogs 4 vs. Brisbane 6
• 200+ games - Bulldogs 0 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Bulldogs 55.4 vs. Brisbane 79.7 (= +24.3 games on average)
• Average age - Bulldogs 22.6 vs. Brisbane 24.4 (= +1.8 years on average)
• Height - Bulldogs 186.3 vs. Brisbane 189.1 (= +2.8cm on average)
• Weight - Bulldogs 84.4 vs. Brisbane 89.2 (= +4.8kg on average)