Opinion INTERNATIONAL Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 5

[Cap]

How dumb are Americans

No polling is going to be accurate for a few weeks.

(You can tell how desperate Trump fans are by liking that post )

You might want to be careful on which polls you rely on as well. Its a bit like 538, key people left and they change their methods.

Edit - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/real-clear-politics.html.

Well thats a shame, I hate how in the US you can't rely on anyone to be impartial on these things

Double edit - Just on 538 (again grain of salt)

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Interesting that 'Congress' has a 14% approval. That would mean so much more in Australia

 

[AmericanCrow]

so you are through?

Indeed

 

[Cap]

Indeed

Congrats mate, so now its you v the Republican candidate?

 

[AmericanCrow]

Congrats mate, so now its you v the Republican candidate?

Yes in about a +6 red county

Tall order, but there is a path I think

Definitely a great story if I flip it..Dem hasn’t even run in about 30 years in this county

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I haven't been paying attention to Trump's rallies. What was that shit about Hannibal Lecter being a great man?

 

[Cap]

Yes in about a +6 red county

Tall order, but there is a path I think

Definitely a great story if I flip it..Dem hasn’t even run in about 30 years in this county

Good luck, not sure we can be any help here but we will be backing you in!

Don't be weird and you'll be fine

 

[OneGreatClub]

No polling is going to be accurate for a few weeks.

(You can tell how desperate Trump fans are by liking that post )

You might want to be careful on which polls you rely on as well. Its a bit like 538, key people left and they change their methods.

Edit - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/real-clear-politics.html.

Well thats a shame, I hate how in the US you can't rely on anyone to be impartial on these things

Double edit - Just on 538 (again grain of salt)

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Interesting that 'Congress' has a 14% approval. That would mean so much more in Australia

I think the youth vote might surprise a few

 

[adelaidecrows]

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

Current Polls 1st August 2024.

Trump: 47.7% Harris 46.5% (Trump +1.2)

1st August 2020: Biden 49.4% Trump 42.0% (Biden +7.4)

Battle Ground States:

Arizona: Trump: 49.0% - Harris 43.8% (Trump +5.2)
Georgia: Trump: 48.2% - Harris 44.6% (Trump +3.6)
Michigan: Harris: 48.3% - Trump: 46.3% (Harris +2.0)
Nevada: Trump: 47.5% - Harris 43.5% (Trump +4.0)
North Carolina: Trump: 49.0% - Harris 43.5% (Trump +5.5)
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.2% - Harris 45.5% (Trump +2.7)
Wisconsin: Trump 48.2% - Harris 48.0% (Trump +0.2)

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States

www.realclearpolling.com

Current Electoral Map: Trump 297 - Harris 241

Your polls are outdated. Probably taken within Harris first week. Trump is only 2 points up in Arizona, Harris is winning Georgia by 1 point and Trump is up in Penn by 1.

Real clear pollings dates are unreliable and doesnt look like its been updated. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Just for mental note, Harris is smashing Trump in all the key areas. For Harris to make up that much ground in just two weeks, means Trump is in an awful lot of trouble. This also predates that disastrous brain fart he had on stage where he basically alienated everyone with his cry baby ranting about a question instead of answering it. When Roe v Wade gets debated properly in the lead up to the election and they start their debates, Kamala will take a clear lead.

Not sure if you are a Trump fan or just trying to report the polls. But just for clarity mine were updated on 29Th July.

 

[adelaidecrows]

No polling is going to be accurate for a few weeks.

(You can tell how desperate Trump fans are by liking that post )

You might want to be careful on which polls you rely on as well. Its a bit like 538, key people left and they change their methods.

Edit - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/real-clear-politics.html.

Well thats a shame, I hate how in the US you can't rely on anyone to be impartial on these things

Double edit - Just on 538 (again grain of salt)

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Interesting that 'Congress' has a 14% approval. That would mean so much more in Australia

It takes a lot of time to poll. In a week they can only generally do about 2-3 states. real clear politics polling clearly happened within Harris first week and probably took a very small sample from the battle ground states. Small sampling is misleading because of the nature of US politics. rural v city etc depends on how many they did in each area, which areas count as well. So the real truth wont come out for another month when both elections start.

 

[MrKK]

And JD Vance is going to be a lead weight on Trump.

Worst unfavourably ratings by a VP.

What a good pick for Trump.

Generally the Presidential candidates pick a VP that isn't popular enough to be a threat. Trump has taken that to the extreme.

 

[MrKK]

Fair play to the Dems for having the first debate so early, knowing that Biden would flunk out and giving them time to replace him. They'd have been rooted if it was held after their convention.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Fair play to the Dems for having the first debate so early, knowing that Biden would flunk out and giving them time to replace him. They'd have been rooted if it was held after their convention.

I dont think it was a deliberate ploy. If it was deliberate they would have held it earlier in the year. The democrats were all in on Biden. They thought he could walk the election in, they thought Harris would be unpopular because of her lack of appeal during her term as VP. My gut feel the democrats plan was far more brazen and sinister. They would have Harris invoke the 25th amendment and replace Biden before the end of next year. There is no way they would have thought Biden was going to even see out this term and this plan was probably hashed out prior to the last election. They were merely looking to roll it over. Harris may not have known about it but it would have been a certainty. Youd have to be an inbicile to think anyone in their late 70s wont succumb to age related illness at some point. So there would have been plans.

It wouldnt surprise me if the republicans have a plan for Trump similar, thats why they picked JD Vance. They know he is cookoo for cocopuffs and would carry out MAGAs plan in the event Trump through his age is unable to complete his presidency.

 

[kirky]

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

Current Polls 1st August 2024.

Trump: 47.7% Harris 46.5% (Trump +1.2)

1st August 2020: Biden 49.4% Trump 42.0% (Biden +7.4)

Battle Ground States:

Arizona: Trump: 49.0% - Harris 43.8% (Trump +5.2)
Georgia: Trump: 48.2% - Harris 44.6% (Trump +3.6)
Michigan: Harris: 48.3% - Trump: 46.3% (Harris +2.0)
Nevada: Trump: 47.5% - Harris 43.5% (Trump +4.0)
North Carolina: Trump: 49.0% - Harris 43.5% (Trump +5.5)
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.2% - Harris 45.5% (Trump +2.7)
Wisconsin: Trump 48.2% - Harris 48.0% (Trump +0.2)

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States

www.realclearpolling.com

Current Electoral Map: Trump 297 - Harris 241

Well done, you need to drill down on some of the polls as some are impacting the average as it is before Harris became the nominee so any poll before 22/7 is useless.

For example - Harris is now leading Nevada (+2) whereas Biden was 10 points behind (Trump +10).

And for North Carolina, one of the polls is way back in February.

So are you a Trumper?

 

[kirky]

It takes a lot of time to poll. In a week they can only generally do about 2-3 states. real clear politics polling clearly happened within Harris first week and probably took a very small sample from the battle ground states. Small sampling is misleading because of the nature of US politics. rural v city etc depends on how many they did in each area, which areas count as well. So the real truth wont come out for another month when both elections start.

Plus the Democrats will get a boost from the Democrat National Convention.

Expect to see Trump double down on the racist and sexist comments. He can’t help himself.

 

[kirky]

I dont think it was a deliberate ploy. If it was deliberate they would have held it earlier in the year. The democrats were all in on Biden. They thought he could walk the election in, they thought Harris would be unpopular because of her lack of appeal during her term as VP. My gut feel the democrats plan was far more brazen and sinister. They would have Harris invoke the 25th amendment and replace Biden before the end of next year. There is no way they would have thought Biden was going to even see out this term and this plan was probably hashed out prior to the last election. They were merely looking to roll it over. Harris may not have known about it but it would have been a certainty. Youd have to be an inbicile to think anyone in their late 70s wont succumb to age related illness at some point. So there would have been plans.

It wouldnt surprise me if the republicans have a plan for Trump similar, thats why they picked JD Vance. They know he is cookoo for cocopuffs and would carry out MAGAs plan in the event Trump through his age is unable to complete his presidency.

The problem is that the 7th August is the final cutoff date for some states for name on the ballot.

And that is why Harris will confirm her VP over the next few days before the DNC.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Is this woke?

 

[AmericanCrow]

Good luck, not sure we can be any help here but we will be backing you in!

Don't be weird and you'll be fine

Always can use some “dark money” of course

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Poor Joe. Just got onto the wrong plane. Kamala just let him go. Where is the easter bunny when you want him.

 

[footy4ever]

The problem is that the 7th August is the final cutoff date for some states for name on the ballot.

And that is why Harris will confirm her VP over the next few days before the DNC.

AmericanCrow for VP!!!

Get on board, America!!!

 

[Cap]

Poor Joe. Just got onto the wrong plane. Kamala just let him go. Where is the easter bunny when you want him.

Always blaming the coloured folk for the problems of white folk aren't you.

 

[AmericanCrow]

AmericanCrow for VP!!!

Get on board, America!!!

I was joking with the missus that I check all the boxes

White
Middle aged
Man
Midwestern boy (Cleveland)
Lives in Arizona

She was not at all enthralled with my musings…

 

[OneGreatClub]

Is this woke?

Better stick to couches fellas

 

[OneGreatClub]

Poor Joe. Just got onto the wrong plane. Kamala just let him go. Where is the easter bunny when you want him.

Lol you lot are so gullible. Explains your Trump love. No sane intelligent or moral person could love Trump so much.
Biden went up to thank the pilots.
He’s respectful and compassionate.
Something you might find to be quite foreign.

 

[kirky]

Lol you lot are so gullible. Explains your Trump love. No sane intelligent or moral person could love Trump so much.
Biden went up to thank the pilots.
He’s respectful and compassionate.
Something you might find to be quite foreign.

And that is the problem with social media and the media in general - the context is always missing.

It is all about the clicks - and the social media companies love how people fall for this stuff because it generates ad revenue.

The social media companies have no intention of monitoring misinformation etc, it would reduce their $$$$.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Lol you lot are so gullible. Explains your Trump love. No sane intelligent or moral person could love Trump so much.
Biden went up to thank the pilots.
He’s respectful and compassionate.
Something you might find to be quite foreign.