Analysis Is Leppa the Right Man for the Job?

[Skoob]

So does the win yesterday now make Leppitsch a better coach than Bolton?

I think most will agree that Bolton has done a good job. What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak. Sure he got the Blues up & about at the start of the year, but we see this all the time in teams with a new coach. People have argued all year that a different coach would have done much better than Leppa with all the same other circumstances (personnel, injuries, lack of $$$ etc, etc).
Yet here is Carlton, with "super coach", the savior of Lygon St, Clarkson Jnr, stinking it up with 9 losses in a row. In fact, (fun fact) the last game they managed to win was against the Brisbane Lions. Any jibes at Bolton can be taken 2 ways. Either he is a very good coach, which weakens the argument that Leppitsch isn't, as we can see so much depends on other factors like the players for example. Or he is a dud coach which shows a premature and misguided love of his genius by so many around here, so be careful about wanting a new coach so badly.

 

[James North]

Are you that convinced? I still feel, mainly due to the fact that we have a big injection of FD cash coming in for senior assistant, plus 4th year already inked, its still 50/50 with wins like today helping his cause greatly.

If we won the next 2 games, he would catagorically be our coach next year IMO. I said 4 wins should earn him a recall at about round 14.. Whilst not definitive, that is still a good indicator imo.

I was just responding to a post about the Club - I think their mind is already made up, that's all.

 

[Squizz89]

I was just responding to a post about the Club - I think their mind is already made up, that's all.

If that is the case and it isn't a favourable result for Leppa I wouldn't mind seeing the club announce it during the week so Leppa could get a 'thank you' match at the Gabba next week, like Ratten did with Carlton.

Obviously it won't happen but I think if he was being moved on it would be good for the fans to say thank you because I think whatever side of the fence people sit on in terms of whether we keep him or not, no one can doubt he's tried his best for the club.

 

[Schraderbrau]

I think most will agree that Bolton has done a good job. What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak. Sure he got the Blues up & about at the start of the year, but we see this all the time in teams with a new coach. People have argued all year that a different coach would have done much better than Leppa with all the same other circumstances (personnel, injuries, lack of $$$ etc, etc).
Yet here is Carlton, with "super coach", the savior of Lygon St, Clarkson Jnr, stinking it up with 9 losses in a row. In fact, (fun fact) the last game they managed to win was against the Brisbane Lions. Any jibes at Bolton can be taken 2 ways. Either he is a very good coach, which weakens the argument that Leppitsch isn't, as we can see so much depends on other factors like the players for example. Or he is a dud coach which shows a premature and misguided love of his genius by so many around here, so be careful about wanting a new coach so badly.

Yeah it's way too early to make any judgment on Bolton. Yes Carlton have been surprisingly competitive this season but looking at the list they are just delaying the inevitable bottoming out in the next few years. With the job security that Bolton has, I would have thought that he'd take a few more risks this season in blooding the kids before they're ready. The difference between the two list are the mid tier players at Carlton are significantly better though still mediocre and not good enough to get them much higher than they are atm. Honestly I think that you can make an argument that Brisbane have had a more useful season than them in the sense that they have blooded a lot more young players and know a lot more about the list and who will be around in 5 years time.

 

[Happy_Neale]

I think most will agree that Bolton has done a good job. What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak. Sure he got the Blues up & about at the start of the year, but we see this all the time in teams with a new coach. People have argued all year that a different coach would have done much better than Leppa with all the same other circumstances (personnel, injuries, lack of $$$ etc, etc).
Yet here is Carlton, with "super coach", the savior of Lygon St, Clarkson Jnr, stinking it up with 9 losses in a row. In fact, (fun fact) the last game they managed to win was against the Brisbane Lions. Any jibes at Bolton can be taken 2 ways. Either he is a very good coach, which weakens the argument that Leppitsch isn't, as we can see so much depends on other factors like the players for example. Or he is a dud coach which shows a premature and misguided love of his genius by so many around here, so be careful about wanting a new coach so badly.

Haven't seen anyone projecting Bolton as the demi-God that you are presenting here. For me, it is more about having a coach who teaches a structure and has us playing with some system and really cracking in. Carlton have an average list but they have managed to do that for a large part of this year despite their losses.

 

[Roylion]

you know it goes a bit deeper than that Roy.

It does. The cattle that one has at its disposal is a huge factor.

I think most will agree that Bolton has done a good job. What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak. Sure he got the Blues up & about at the start of the year, but we see this all the time in teams with a new coach. People have argued all year that a different coach would have done much better than Leppa with all the same other circumstances (personnel, injuries, lack of $$$ etc, etc).

Yet here is Carlton, with "super coach", the savior of Lygon St, Clarkson Jnr, stinking it up with 9 losses in a row. In fact, (fun fact) the last game they managed to win was against the Brisbane Lions. Any jibes at Bolton can be taken 2 ways. Either he is a very good coach, which weakens the argument that Leppitsch isn't, as we can see so much depends on other factors like the players for example. Or he is a dud coach which shows a premature and misguided love of his genius by so many around here, so be careful about wanting a new coach so badly.

Agree entirely.

And just as a matter of interest, both teams' age and experience breakdown. Brisbane with the younger team.

Brisbane Lions
1-20 games
Archie Smith 3 games 21yo
Rhys Mathieson 9 games 19yo
Ben Keays 14 games 19yo
Eric Hipwood 8 games 18yo
Matthew Hammelmann 7 games 20yo
Michael Close 17 games, 22yo
Jarrad Jansen 7 games, 21yo

21-50
Darcy Gardiner 40 games 20yo
Josh Walker 47 games 23yo
Harris Andrews 33 games 19yo
Tom Cutler 31 games, 21yo

51-100
Lewis Taylor 60 games 21yo
Sam Mayes 71 games, 22yo
Josh Green 81 games 23yo
Dayne Zorko 98 games 27yo
Ryan Lester 78 games, 23yo

101-150
Pearce Hanley 127 games, 27yo
Tom Rockliff 132 games 26yo
Mitch Robinson 140 games, 27yo
Daniel Rich 141 games, 26yo
Ryan Bastinac 141 games 25yo

151-200
Daniel Merrett 198 games 31yo

Age Breakdown: 30+yo: 1; 25-29yo: 6; 21-24yo: 9 18-20yo: 6 (3 teenagers)

Slightly older than last week with two 18-20 year olds replaced by two 21-24 yo's

Carlton
1-20 games
Jacob Weitering 18 games, 18yo
Blaine Boekhorst 18 games, 22yo
Jack Silvagni 7 games 18yo
David Cuningham 1 game 19yo

21-50
Sam Kerridge 47 games 23yo
Patrick Cripps 42 games 21yo
Lachlan Plowman 37 games 21yr
Dylan Buckley 36 games 23yo
Andrew Phillips 28 games 25yo

51-100
Liam Jones 81 games 25yo
Simon White 74 games 28yo
Levi Casboult 70 games 26yo
Sam Docherty 68 games 22yo
Sam Rowe 71 games 28yo
Zach Tuohy 118 games, 26yo
Matthew Wright 114 games, 26yo
Edward Curnow 108 games 26yo

101-150
Dennis Armfield 138 games 29yo
Matthew Kruezer 138 games 27yo

151-200
Dale Thomas 198 games, 29yo

200+
Kade Simpson 262 games, 32yo
Bryce Gibbs 207 games 27yo

Age Breakdown: 30+yo: 1; 25-29yo: 12; 21-24yo: 6 18-20yo: 3 (3 teenagers)

Comparison with Lions: 30+yo: even; 25-29yo: +6; 21-24yo: -3 18-20yo: -3 (3 teenagers)

 

[M Malice]

It does. The cattle that one has at its disposal is a huge factor.

Just as a matter of interest, both teams' age and experience breakdown

Brisbane Lions
1-20 games
Archie Smith 3 games 21yo
Rhys Mathieson 9 games 19yo
Ben Keays 14 games 19yo
Eric Hipwood 8 games 18yo
Matthew Hammelmann 7 games 20yo
Michael Close 17 games, 22yo
Jarrad Jansen 7 games, 21yo

21-50
Darcy Gardiner 40 games 20yo
Josh Walker 47 games 23yo
Harris Andrews 33 games 19yo
Tom Cutler 31 games, 21yo

51-100
Lewis Taylor 60 games 21yo
Sam Mayes 71 games, 22yo
Josh Green 81 games 23yo
Dayne Zorko 98 games 27yo
Ryan Lester 78 games, 23yo

101-150
Pearce Hanley 127 games, 27yo
Tom Rockliff 132 games 26yo
Mitch Robinson 140 games, 27yo
Daniel Rich 141 games, 26yo
Ryan Bastinac 141 games 25yo

151-200
Daniel Merrett 198 games 31yo

Age Breakdown: 30+yo: 1; 25-29yo: 6; 21-24yo: 9 18-20yo: 6 (3 teenagers)

Slightly older than last week with two 18-20 year olds replaced by two 21-24 yo's

Carlton
1-20 games
Jacob Weitering 18 games, 18yo
Blaine Boekhorst 18 games, 22yo
Jack Silvagni 7 games 18yo
David Cuningham 1 game 19yo

21-50
Sam Kerridge 47 games 23yo
Patrick Cripps 42 games 21yo
Lachlan Plowman 37 games 21yr
Dylan Buckley 36 games 23yo
Andrew Phillips 28 games 25yo

51-100
Liam Jones 81 games 25yo
Simon White 74 games 28yo
Levi Casboult 70 games 26yo
Sam Docherty 68 games 22yo
Sam Rowe 71 games 28yo
Zach Tuohy 118 games, 26yo
Matthew Wright 114 games, 26yo
Edward Curnow 108 games 26yo

101-150
Dennis Armfield 138 games 29yo
Matthew Kruezer 138 games 27yo

151-200
Dale Thomas 198 games, 29yo

200+
Kade Simpson 262 games, 32yo
Bryce Gibbs 207 games 27yo

Age Breakdown: 30+yo: 1; 25-29yo: 12; 21-24yo: 6 18-20yo: 3 (3 teenagers)

Comparison with Lions: 30+yo: even; 25-29yo: +6; 21-24yo: -3 18-20yo: -3 (3 teenagers)

always love your analysis of our situation. if the club decide to go with the status quo it will not dent my passion for the club. i desperately want our club to be a competitive then graduate to an elite team. i enjoy throwing up player and coach options, i could talk about our club all day if given the opportunity.

 

[Milk Steak]

I think if we're going to bring Carltons record of 9 straight losses into the equation,we should also show margin of some of those losses and the teams which beat them. If I remember correctly they have very competitive in a lot of those matches pushing the likes of Hawthorn and Sydney for the bulk of the games. Yes, we stayed with Sydney in monsoonal conditions I know,but their consistency is much more comforting than our long list of blow outs against even middle to lower clubs.

 

[royboys4eva]

But I thought we wanted to be more like Carlton?

I thought Bolton was some sort of God that had Carlton rise like a phoenix?

Or isn't that the case any more?

Bolton has done a wonderful job as coach this year. He took over a rabble and put in a solid game plan/structure based on defence first. He has taught them to run hard both ways. He is laying the foundations to re build Carlton.They had no right to beat Geelong or take Sydney, West Coast and Hawthorn to the wire. Leppa has turned the list over which has made it hard for him but if you can explain to me our game plan and which players have developed under him in the last three years i would be most enlightened.

 

[POBT]

Haven't seen anyone projecting Bolton as the demi-God that you are presenting here. For me, it is more about having a coach who teaches a structure and has us playing with some system and really cracking in. Carlton have an average list but they have managed to do that for a large part of this year despite their losses.

Yeah, I'm not sure this conversation is progressed by portraying the most extreme view as representative.

Carlton have shown improvement as a group. They play with system. They have mostly defended well. Until the last couple of weeks, they've shown the ability to compete hard at this level. What I see with them is players learning all the time. They are able to implement, at least in patches, what the coach is teaching them. For whatever reason, our players are largely unable to do the same. The coach is on the record saying that the players know it but can't implement. For whatever reason, at Carlton, they are able to implement.

Mostly, I think Carlton supporters are pleased with where they are at. They are getting a good contribution from their senior players which provides a foundation for them to develop their younger players. The coach deserves some credit for that.

 

[lioninthesand]

I think most will agree that Bolton has done a good job. What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak. Sure he got the Blues up & about at the start of the year, but we see this all the time in teams with a new coach. People have argued all year that a different coach would have done much better than Leppa with all the same other circumstances (personnel, injuries, lack of $$$ etc, etc).
Yet here is Carlton, with "super coach", the savior of Lygon St, Clarkson Jnr, stinking it up with 9 losses in a row. In fact, (fun fact) the last game they managed to win was against the Brisbane Lions. Any jibes at Bolton can be taken 2 ways. Either he is a very good coach, which weakens the argument that Leppitsch isn't, as we can see so much depends on other factors like the players for example. Or he is a dud coach which shows a premature and misguided love of his genius by so many around here, so be careful about wanting a new coach so badly.

"What it does show however, is that the coach is only one piece of the team. The argument that we should have someone like him and that he would have got a lot more out of our cattle is fairly weak"

Thats is a fairly wide sweeping and over arching conclusion to draw from one small victory, basically, answering the age old question of the importance of coach?

If those sort of conclusions are being drawn from one result, Leppa catagorically should have been sacked by now.

For the record, my perception on the impact a new coach MIGHT have on us, given the succsess of a string of other new coaches recently - is not diminished at all after yesterday.

What that win does, and what a win in the next two weeks (will do even more) is make removing Justin harder, and rightly so, and for the 'you're failing horribly, show me why you should keep your job' camp, it makes it easier to digest rolling with him into his 4th year. So it is vitally important for all. A win againts the cats and it will save his job imo.

Not sure you win the importance of a coach argument though. Lol

 

[Happy_Neale]

I think if we're going to bring Carltons record of 9 straight losses into the equation,we should also show margin of some of those losses and the teams which beat them. If I remember correctly they have very competitive in a lot of those matches pushing the likes of Hawthorn and Sydney for the bulk of the games. Yes, we stayed with Sydney in monsoonal conditions I know,but their consistency is much more comforting than our long list of blow outs against even middle to lower clubs.

Plus the fact we had a 12-game loss streak as well.

 

[notliondown]

So does the win yesterday now make Leppitsch a better coach than Bolton?

Not in the slightest. That wasn't my point.

A few months ago there was a chorus line of posters suggesting that Bolton was some sort of mythical genius who could walk on water and his ability to make a silk purse out of a sows ear was unheralded.

Previously it was Hinkley.

Time and the decision or need for both to play young players has simply shown how hard it is when you are trying to develop a list and maybe we should stop assuming the grass is always greener.

It really just confirms that this is not an easy path we've chosen.

 

[BigCat2]

When you're in a rebuild, W-L is only part of your KPI. The way you play the game is arguably more important - the manner in which you win or lose, whether you have a strong game plan and system in place to allow your players to maximise their effectiveness on field, and signs of player development.

Leppa has turned over the list massively. But after 3 years I fail to see implementation of a consistent game plan or signs of consistent player development. Now sure these aren't solely due to him - players need to take responsibility too - but coach is a vital part of this.

Anyone who thinks a coach isn't important - just have a look at our 3 peat era. In hindsight many have said that we were a team of champions who would have won anyway, but before Leigh Matthews came along, did we look like a champion team? Without him, it would not have been possible.

 

[notliondown]

Bolton has done a wonderful job as coach this year. He took over a rabble and put in a solid game plan/structure based on defence first. He has taught them to run hard both ways. He is laying the foundations to re build Carlton.They had no right to beat Geelong or take Sydney, West Coast and Hawthorn to the wire. Leppa has turned the list over which has made it hard for him but if you can explain to me our game plan and which players have developed under him in the last three years i would be most enlightened.

So you saw nothing positive out of yesterday at all?

 

[Happy_Neale]

Not in the slightest. That wasn't my point.

A few months ago there was a chorus line of posters suggesting that Bolton was some sort of mythical genius who could walk on water and his ability to make a silk purse out of a sows ear was unheralded.

Previously it was Hinkley.

Time and the decision or need for both to play young players has simply shown how hard it is when you are trying to develop a list and maybe we should stop assuming the grass is always greener.

Nobody has said anything like this. As I mentioned earlier, I am a Bolton fan for the structures and game plan he has implemented, although I won't talk on behalf of anyone else. There really is no reason to keep misrepresenting peoples argument like this.

 

[M Malice]

every poster calling for a change of coach does not go down the sack leppa road and assume that it's going to be the panacea for our club. my recollection is that it is just one part of the solution jigsaw along with-

1) ability to use the full allowable salary cap and football department spends.

2) the official announcement, funding and timetable for our new administration/training base.

3) a commitment from the AFL re the retention of the northern academies in basically their current form.

4) retention allowance available to all clubs based on the percentage of local talent on their list.

5) full review (already committed to) of the coaching set up.

whatever the result of point 5, i am sure the vast majority of us will stick with and back the club. there is no way i will not be a fully paid up member and attend all 11 home games in 2017.

 

[POBT]

A few months ago there was a chorus line of posters suggesting that Bolton was some sort of mythical genius who could walk on water and his ability to make a silk purse out of a sows ear was unheralded.

This is shit. I doubt you can find a single poster who has expressed this view. If you can, it will be so far from being representative of the general view regarding Leppitsch/Bolton.

 

[Roylion]

It really just confirms that this is not an easy path we've chosen.

That's right. And there's always going to be a fair bit of pain, especially when the young players he has at his disposal have difficulty executing the main game plan which is focused on aggressive ball movement. That also relies on a fair bit of gut running and fitness which many of them at this stage of their development aren't up to...yet. Another 1-2 pre-seasons got into the younger guys will clearly make a difference in this area.

The next stage of the list development / structure is clearly going to be shoring up the defence. Leppitsch confirmed this week that the Lions are in the market for at least one more mature key defender. That they reportdely offered a large amount to get Josh Jenkins up to Brisbane suggests that they believe that they need another key forward as well. Maybe they'll try and attract another ruck/forward.

 

[notliondown]

After going through just 43 pages of 360 odd of this thread via Tapatalk which is just too bloody hard (after which I gave up)... 8 different posters either wished we had Bolton, said Leppa should be more like Bolton or that what Bolton had achieved should be the standard we aspire too. There was gushing of video footage even.

It's all there if you want to look... and probably more too if you could be bothered.

I'm not suggesting this is the majority view. What I am suggesting is that there is this propensity for some to promote any coach with reasonable success as proof we have the wrong one.

I'm happy to praise other coaches and give credit where it's due. I just don't get the idea that any form of success in another club in another city with another list is somehow a valid comparison.

 

[jackess]

Getting on my high horse here because I've probably done it as well there is something that has really been bugging me.

Some posters making generalisations about posters making generalisations.

How does some posters saying that Bolton is a good coach and has done a good job at Carlton (possibly better than what Leppa has don at the Lions) get turned into the vast majorities hailing Bolton as some sort of superhuman coach?

If you're going to claim superiority based off one game don't exaggerate what other posters have been saying or you just look stupid.

Bolton has taken his team a step in the right direction. So far Leppa has taken us two steps in the wrong direction. You could argue whether or not Leppa has done the right thing but it's be much harder to argue against Bolton having done a good this season.

 

[POBT]

After going through just 43 pages of 360 odd of this thread via Tapatalk which is just too bloody hard... 8 different posters either wished we had Bolton, said Leppa should be more like Bolton or that what Bolton had achieved should be the standard we aspire too. There was gushing of video footage even.

It's all there if you want to look.

In other words, some people believe Bolton is a better coach than Leppitsch. Hardly remarkable, I'd have thought.

 

[royboys4eva]

So you saw nothing positive out of yesterday at all?

We won that's a positive any time. Our first half was good our second half we hung on just.. but it's great to get a win. But if you want to raise the Bolton vs Leppa argument right now Bolton has clearly been a more effective coach.

 

[notliondown]

In other words, some people believe Bolton is a better coach than Leppitsch. Hardly remarkable, I'd have thought.

You challenged me to find a single poster. There was more... and it was a pretty common theme for a while.

I'm happy to accept criticism of my posting... that's always fair.

But is your apparent generalisation (in the post you called shit) any better than mine??

 

[Happy_Neale]

A few months ago there was a chorus line of posters suggesting that Bolton was some sort of mythical genius who could walk on water and his ability to make a silk purse out of a sows ear was unheralded.

After going through just 43 pages of 360 odd of this thread via Tapatalk which is just too bloody hard (after which I gave up)... 8 different posters either wished we had Bolton, said Leppa should be more like Bolton or that what Bolton had achieved should be the standard we aspire too. There was gushing of video footage even.

Right...well that's the exact same is it.

In the same way it is silly to be calling for Leppa's head for one loss, it is silly to be denigrating peoples opinions of another coach, particularly one who has so far shown a greater ability to coach at AFL level as a new coach (IMV).