Analysis Is Leppa the Right Man for the Job?

[dlanod]

Our list is not 10+ goals worse than Melbourne, Port and Collingwood. Or a bunch of the teams that thrashed us last year.

Our list may not be that far behind those teams but if you're looking at actual margins, look at the teams that are actually out on the park. You can't compare that to "our list". With the possible exception of this week (and given the reports on West's efforts, I'm guessing people including myself probably went a bit too early on the ranting there), we've been putting our best team out there and it's consistently been minus Beams, minus Rocky and/or minus Pearce - our three true/potential A graders IMO. The most any of them have played is 70% of games in the last two years.

 

[Bucking Beads]

As bad as our midfield has been I think our backline is so inexperienced and ordinary that our opposition gets so many cheap quick goals. It'd be a clear reason why we keep getting pumped even when our effort is up. That said our midfield has been massively overrated and injured.

 

[lioninthesand]

Yep. I think we could fire Leppa, and in two years time we'll be exactly where we are now because of continued overrating of our list after some other coach tries and fails with them.

So the other option is to sit on Leppa for another 2 years? Regress to the point of absolute irralivance, lose players at the end of each season and spiral into the pits of nothingness? Because no one can do any better? - I strongly, strongly beleive that the right coach could get a bounce out of this team next year, I would go as far as to say that the interium coach this year would win a string of games should leppa be moved on (which he wont), the rot is that bad. I dont share your pessimism for our future and our playing list, for me the club is always bigger than the coach, club hero or not.

Also the fact his list is so hapless and so talentless in your opiniom, is.. a coaching issue. Players regressing is a coaching issue. So that alone is another reason to start considering whether a new coach should be comsidered an option.

I just want to know what the plan is for those pushing for us to persist with him, and where and how the climb back up the ladder will start.

 

[lioninthesand]

As bad as our midfield has been I think our backline is so inexperienced and ordinary that our opposition gets so many cheap quick goals. It'd be a clear reason why we keep getting pumped even when our effort is up. That said our midfield has been massively overrated and injured.

And the club should have indentified this last year and got a few players to help with this, it was clear as day.. even with Clake (which is now their excuse they roll out every time defense is mentioned) that we were severely undermanned down there.

 

[hench]

If i was in charge i'd give Leppa the rest of the year to turn things around. The draw gets easier thankfully. If the team is still in the same position Dew or Ratten for mine.

Why the hell would Dew and Rattan want to come here?

 

[Haso]

Ok then. Let's sack all the players.

Not a bad idea.

 

[dlanod]

So the other option is to sit on Leppa for another 2 years?

Nope, you're drawing a conclusion that wasn't in my post.

Regress to the point of absolute irralivance, lose players at the end of each season and spiral into the pits of nothingness? Because no one can do any better? - I strongly, strongly beleive that the right coach could get a bounce out of this team next year, I would go as far as to say that the interium coach this year would win a string of games should leppa be moved on (which he wont), the rot is that bad.

I think an interim coach, especially, will win about the same number of games or less than Leppa. Unfortunately we don't have multiple universes to run parallel tests in.

I dont share your pessimism for our future and our playing list, for me the club is always bigger than the coach, club hero or not.

The club is also bigger than the players.

Also the fact his list is so hapless and so talentless in your opiniom, is.. a coaching issue. Players regressing is a coaching issue. So that alone is another reason to start considering whether a new coach should be comsidered an option.

Well we know your opinion that injury == regression and you don't want to credit Leppa with any improvement to anyone at all, so this one can go through to the keeper.

I just want to know what the plan is for those pushing for us to persist with him, and where and how the climb back up the ladder will start.

I think we need a couple of years dedicated to getting actual talent into our list and/or on to the park, and then whatever coach happens to be in charge will reap the rewards.

 

[Voss the boss]

53 games = 41 loses / 12 wins

Loses
Between 0 - 20 = (6) 3 / 8 / 12 / 12 /13 / 14
Between 21 - 40 = (8) 21 / 22 / 24 / 25 / 25 / 30 / 34 / 36
Between 41 - 60 = (9) 43 / 45 / 48 / 53 / 53 / 53 / 56 / 58 / 58
Between 61 - 80 = (12) 62 / 63 / 64 / 64 / 69 / 72 / 72 / 72 / 77 / 78 / 79 / 79
Between 81 - 100 = (4) 82 / 83 / 87 / 87
100 + = (2) 105 / 113

Wins
Between 0 - 20 = 3 / 4 / 7 / 8 /8 / 9 / 13
Between 21 - 40 = 23 / 37
Between 41 - 60 = 54
Between 61 - 80 = 64 / 67

What is alarming more so is we have only lost 2 games under 10 points and have had 24 loses over 50 points, where as 6 of our 12 wins have been under 10 points. Oh and our average losing margin has increased from 48 in 2015 to 55 in 2016 - our ave losing margin in 2014 was 56.

Stats don't lie - he is a sitting duck.

 

[Leemas]

Lol at all the I haven't posted in x-month heroes, this place is a basket case of posters. You're obviously still in the background reading it all, makes you look like right twats. As far as I'm concerned I feel we're in desperate need of a mark Harvey esq role back at the club. Leppa needs some support from an old head.

 

[Bucking Beads]

And the club should have indentified this last year and got a few players to help with this, it was clear as day.. even with Clake (which is now their excuse they roll out every time defense is mentioned) that we were severely undermanned down there.

I believe they did try to bring in David Astbury. They needed to do more though. Experience small defenders would have helped too.

 

[lioninthesand]

Nope, you're drawing a conclusion that wasn't in my post.



I think an interim coach, especially, will win about the same number of games or less than Leppa. Unfortunately we don't have multiple universes to run parallel tests in.



The club is also bigger than the players.



Well we know your opinion that injury == regression and you don't want to credit Leppa with any improvement to anyone at all, so this one can go through to the keeper.



I think we need a couple of years dedicated to getting actual talent into our list and/or on to the park, and then whatever coach happens to be in charge will reap the rewards.

So I am not allowed to confidently hypothesise about outcomes and truths, yet it's OK for you to safely assume that the list we currently have will do no better under a new coach, can I not test my theory's in your parallel testing universe too?

We can't sack the list, if we could do a total reset of all 48 listed players and replace them with a totally new 'AFL standard / well suited' list of players I would HAPPILY have that discussion.

Injury = regression? you threw up 4 players that had recently been injured and tried to use them as a rebuttal as to why players hadn't regressed (even though all 4 you mentioned had) as some sort of excuse / reason to give Leppa a pass on team development, which forced me to rebut the fact the overall - injury or not, those players had infact regressed - you have now turned that into, my opinion is injury = regression, which totally simplifies my opinion on it, ignores the fact the other 80% of players who haven't had bad injuries have also regressed, and further tries to confuse / mask the development crises at our club as an injury issue, which it is not.

Your last point, I agree with. So it comes down to risk factor. Do we risk continuing with leppa and giving him the chance, as he has a history of not being able to gain that result and it's now his third year - and the dangers that go with that? or do we get a Stuart Dew and a totally new coaching panel into the club, restore some faith, stop the bleeding and see what he can do with our unique situation and unique challenges. I am not willing to risk persisting with Leppa at this stage, especially after the last 3 weeks - the risk is far too high. Supporters are really losing heart and we are going no where.

The pro Leppa arguments have shifted from..

Stage 1: He is the man, lets back him.
Stage 2: It's all injuries and the AFL ripping us off, he needs time
Stage 3: We are actually just so hopeless that no one can do any better anyway, and also.. you Guys are wasting your time because no coach would want his job.

I find it hard to have an argument based around stage 3, I feel its a last ditched attempt to justify a failed hope, that he might turn it around from here, and an indication even his rusted on supporters are losing faith.

I am personally now at stage 4, which is.. our current situation is CLEARLY a coaching issue, so lets give him until the end of the season, if there isn't a marked improvement and turn around, 6 more wins from here minimum, then lets find a new coach.

 

[lioninthesand]

I believe they did try to bring in David Astbury. They needed to do more though. Experience small defenders would have helped too.

They did but by all reports cooled on him and I think he also had his doubts. The big one for me was Suckling, I know a lot didn't want him, but he was looking for real estate in Brissy, thought it was done, then we called him last minute and said 'Actually narr we changed our mind' as we thought we would get a big compo for Luey. agree - we needed to look at some defender type, even if a 'Marcus adams' option.

 

[CarterS]

Clarke in particular was a big blow to the defence.

 

[snooplions]

53 games = 41 loses / 12 wins

Loses
Between 0 - 20 = (6) 3 / 8 / 12 / 12 /13 / 14
Between 21 - 40 = (8) 21 / 22 / 24 / 25 / 25 / 30 / 34 / 36
Between 41 - 60 = (9) 43 / 45 / 48 / 53 / 53 / 53 / 56 / 58 / 58
Between 61 - 80 = (12) 62 / 63 / 64 / 64 / 69 / 72 / 72 / 72 / 77 / 78 / 79 / 79
Between 81 - 100 = (4) 82 / 83 / 87 / 87
100 + = (2) 105 / 113

Wins
Between 0 - 20 = 3 / 4 / 7 / 8 /8 / 9 / 13
Between 21 - 40 = 23 / 37
Between 41 - 60 = 54
Between 61 - 80 = 64 / 67

What is alarming more so is we have only lost 2 games under 10 points and have had 24 loses over 50 points, where as 6 of our 12 wins have been under 10 points. Oh and our average losing margin has increased from 48 in 2015 to 55 in 2016 - our ave losing margin in 2014 was 56.

Stats don't lie - he is a sitting duck.

IMO You can either coach or you can't. Coaches like Clarkson and Roos have been able to get their club moving up the ladder at a steady rate from their first year onwards. There is nothing to suggest leppitsch can get this team out of the bottom four let alone take them to the next level and play finals. While I'll accept last year as a write off because we had a ridiculous injury toll, we've been relatively healthy for a fair chunk of this year yet still been flogged even worse than last year. We look poorly drilled and are constantly out of position. My fear is that we will have another gh5, especially with the group of taylor, Gardiner, McStay, Robertson and co. While it looks like a player like zorko who is having his best year is in a constant state of gloom. Leppitsch might know all of the statistics of our teams deficiencies, but at the end of the day to be going backwards when we are at such a low base already tells me he isn't the man to fix them and needs to go.

 

[James North]

I just want to know what the plan is for those pushing for us to persist with him, and where and how the climb back up the ladder will start.

Continue the cleanout/restructure and get games into talented young kids (preferably local ones).

The problem is that pretty much everyone's alternative to Leppa at the moment is hiring another untried assistant coach or hiring a former senior coach that another club has fired for underperforming.

Unless your plan is to bring Alistair Clarkson in?

 

[jackess]

Continue the cleanout/restructure and get games into talented young kids (preferably local ones).

The problem is that pretty much everyone's alternative to Leppa at the moment is hiring another untried assistant coach or hiring a former senior coach that another club has fired for underperforming.

Unless your plan is to bring Alistair Clarkson in?

Leppa was once an untried assistant coach. Are you suggesting we should no longer untried assistant coaches?

We're not going to poach a Clarkson or another highly rated coach but if they admit they got Leppa wrong it shouldn't stop them from hiring another untried assistant coach.

 

[lioninthesand]

Continue the cleanout/restructure and get games into talented young kids (preferably local ones).

The problem is that pretty much everyone's alternative to Leppa at the moment is hiring another untried assistant coach or hiring a former senior coach that another club has fired for underperforming.

Unless your plan is to bring Alistair Clarkson in?

Yeah that's fair, If we are replacing a like for a like experience wise I can see that some would see that as a pointless exercise our last 2 coaches have been of that mould and failed.

I personally think that there are some good options out there, would hate for us to take the Neil Craig / Rodney Eade route though.

 

[Bucking Beads]

They did but by all reports cooled on him and I think he also had his doubts. The big one for me was Suckling, I know a lot didn't want him, but he was looking for real estate in Brissy, thought it was done, then we called him last minute and said 'Actually narr we changed our mind' as we thought we would get a big compo for Luey. agree - we needed to look at some defender type, even if a 'Marcus adams' option.

I don't think Suckling was ever going to add much defensively though.

 

[lioninthesand]

I don't think Suckling was ever going to add much defensively though.

True - but just his experience and leadership down there, along with his boot off half back, would have been better than nothing, especially given we lack so much in that department.

 

[SizeMatters]

Lol at all the I haven't posted in x-month heroes, this place is a basket case of posters. You're obviously still in the background reading it all, makes you look like right twats. As far as I'm concerned I feel we're in desperate need of a mark Harvey esq role back at the club. Leppa needs some support from an old head.

Leigh would be a good candidate for that old head... Only problem is that he is too busy stroking the egos of any Vic fan that is willing to listen to him. He needs to get more time at the club and less commentating Collingwood games or on footy/radio shows talking about Collingwood or Hawks. I wouldn't mind as much if he was talking lions but he ain't

 

[dlanod]

So I am not allowed to confidently hypothesise about outcomes and truths, yet it's OK for you to safely assume that the list we currently have will do no better under a new coach, can I not test my theory's in your parallel testing universe too?

Merely pointing out that both of our hypotheses are untestable.

We can't sack the list, if we could do a total reset of all 48 listed players and replace them with a totally new 'AFL standard / well suited' list of players I would HAPPILY have that discussion.

Agreed that we can't sack them all, as much as I'd like to. There's also a fair chance you don't get talent in if you're picking in the 70s because all our players are gone, in addition to potentially other talent leaving because of the cleanout.

Your last point, I agree with. So it comes down to risk factor. Do we risk continuing with leppa and giving him the chance, as he has a history of not being able to gain that result and it's now his third year - and the dangers that go with that? or do we get a Stuart Dew and a totally new coaching panel into the club, restore some faith, stop the bleeding and see what he can do with our unique situation and unique challenges. I am not willing to risk persisting with Leppa at this stage, especially after the last 3 weeks - the risk is far too high. Supporters are really losing heart and we are going no where.

That's about the first argument for firing Leppa that made some kind of sense to me - to give supporters hope - except, as mentioned, I really think it would be a false dawn. But it also feels like the tail wagging the dog.

The pro Leppa arguments have shifted from..

Stage 1: He is the man, lets back him.
Stage 2: It's all injuries and the AFL ripping us off, he needs time
Stage 3: We are actually just so hopeless that no one can do any better anyway, and also.. you Guys are wasting your time because no coach would want his job.

Different people actually make different arguments. I'm stage 3 and have been for most of this year - last year I felt he needed more time after the list clean-out we'd embarked upon, but after seeing the list we were bringing into the year I had a horrible feeling we were going to be significantly worse than expected. I wouldn't lump others in together with my views.

I find it hard to have an argument based around stage 3, I feel its a last ditched attempt to justify a failed hope, that he might turn it around from here, and an indication even his rusted on supporters are losing faith.

I am personally now at stage 4, which is.. our current situation is CLEARLY a coaching issue, so lets give him until the end of the season, if there isn't a marked improvement and turn around, 6 more wins from here minimum, then lets find a new coach.

I think that's our fundamental departure - you think it's clearly a coaching issue, I think it's clearly a whole bunch of fundamental issues at the club of which coaching may or may not be one.

 

[T Factor]

I would like to know who selects the next coach, I thought Vossy was going OK and should have got one more year. I think nearly 2 and a half seasons in it is clear Leppa is not getting the club moving in the right direction. A month ago the last three games were in the winnable category and we hanve been belted by teams younger and less experienced, coaching and off field issues are to blame.

Do we have the right people to know what to look for in a new coach?

 

[SizeMatters]

I would like to know who selects the next coach, I thought Vossy was going OK and should have got one more year. I think nearly 2 and a half seasons in it is clear Leppa is not getting the club moving in the right direction. A month ago the last three games were in the winnable category and we hanve been belted by teams younger and less experienced, coaching and off field issues are to blame.

Do we have the right people to know what to look for in a new coach?

We got Leigh who under suspicious circumstances asked Leppa to nominate for the coaching role... Pushed all the other candidates away and selected Leppa. Who knows if Leppa was the best candidate but something tells me he wasn't and the results seem to comply with those thoughts. Corrupted as hell IMO

 

[James North]

We got Leigh who under suspicious circumstances asked Leppa to nominate for the coaching role... Pushed all the other candidates away and selected Leppa. Who knows if Leppa was the best candidate but something tells me he wasn't and the results seem to comply with those thoughts. Corrupted as hell IMO

Was this before or after Lambert and Leppa's throat-yelling match?

 

[Kevvo]

We got Leigh who under suspicious circumstances asked Leppa to nominate for the coaching role... Pushed all the other candidates away and selected Leppa. Who knows if Leppa was the best candidate but something tells me he wasn't and the results seem to comply with those thoughts. Corrupted as hell IMO

Nope.

He was invited to apply. By all accounts, his application was a particularly strong one.

You're looking for a silver bullet answer where there isn't one.