Analysis Is Leppa the Right Man for the Job?

[carnthemlions]

My general point, from a tiny data set partly cause I can't be bothered going back much further, is that there seems to correlation between assistant coaches who have been at clubs that have won premierships and made grand finals and those that seem to become senior coaches of sides that make finals.

Clarkson only had three years as an assistant coach so it's probably not too shabby a result for him to be an assistant coach in a premiership side.

'Coaching trees' are a big thing in the NFL, but that's got more to do with specific philosophies, playbooks etc. Still, the general principle does apply here i.e. learning in successful environment does tend to make coaches more likely to succeed when they get their shot at it.

 

[LeighMatthews]

I helped choose Justin and for a time I was his mentor.

 

[Sherrinator]

I helped choose Justin and for a time I was his mentor.

So we know who to blame when it goes belly-up?

 

[LeighMatthews]

So we know who to blame when it goes belly-up?

It was a five-man panel who chose Justin, so you'd have to blame all of us.

 

[Wounded Lion]

I helped choose Justin and for a time I was his mentor.

It was a five-man panel who chose Justin, so you'd have to blame all of us.

Leigh, could you give us your best 22 on this thread?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-brisbane-lions-starting-line-up.1099472/page-25

Worth a shot...

 

[LeighMatthews]

Leigh, could you give us your best 22 on this thread?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-brisbane-lions-starting-line-up.1099472/page-25

Worth a shot...

I was only temporarily involved in an on-field decision as part of that panel. My place at the club is as a director and as such I'd prefer to refrain from discussing such topics.

Greats of the game are never as keen to take the reins as it may seem.

 

[Wounded Lion]

I was only temporarily involved in an on-field decision as part of that panel. My place at the club is as a director and as such I'd prefer to refrain from discussing such topics.

Greats of the game are never as keen to take the reins as it may seem.

Understood, picking our best 22 is very hard at the moment

 

[blynd_freddie]

unless you are involved in the lions or have a direct association with an insider, all of our talk on big footy is pure speculation, which is fine. that's what BF is all about.

the only evidence that you can go by is the pure facts and figures ie. the ladder/player movement. my speculation would be that the lions have had a massive turnaround off field since leppa arrived/substaintially new board/craig lambert/austin etc. player turnover since the go home 5 is no worse than any other club that has been down for an extended period. i think we should back leppa in for 2016/17 on field and see how it all pans out. the injury list last year was a massive factor in our performances surely it can't be that bad again.

Stats - Damned if I do, damned if I don't...

The stats stay - since 1976 [grabbed my info from Footywire] - ONLY ONE coach has started their third year with a lower win% than Leppa's 25% - coincidentally, it's the saints current coach Alan Richardson who has won one less game in his parallel 44 game coaching career.

 

[Skoob]

Plenty disagree, and think I overstate our woes this season, but I'm content with my opinion that the coach started and pretty much was snookered all year behind the 8 ball.
2 years rejuvenating the list and an injury riddled season from hell, I find it impossible to judge the coach on on field results. The whole win/loss thing has to be viewed in context.
Wait until the end of this season is the next suggestion, but in a year of consolidation and asking players and members to "buy in" and place faith in the coarse we're on, it seems a bit half arsed if we and the club don't extend that faith and commitment to the coach.
"Believe in what we're doing and where we're headed, what we've started and are building, but let's see how it goes for few months before actually sticking with it".
Not sure that's the message I want to hear, or the one to sell. Like trying to sell a new car, but offering a 6 month warranty. Roll the dice, go all in, believe.

 

[blynd_freddie]

I for one have still not seen enough on field positives yet - Leppas 11 wins from two seasons have been...

• 3 against 18th, one against 17th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th 9th and two against 6th

OR

• 3 against the blues, two against the doggies, one Melb, saints, GCS, pies, port and norf

Sure footy's a funny game, one only has to look at the doggies turn around in 2015. So go on Lions make me laugh, I dares ya!

 

[James North]

Stats - Damned if I do, damned if I don't...

The stats stay - since 1976 [grabbed my info from Footywire] - ONLY ONE coach has started their third year with a lower win% than Leppa's 25% - coincidentally, it's the saints current coach Alan Richardson who has won one less game in his parallel 44 game coaching career.

Any stats on most injuries per year?

 

[blynd_freddie]

Any stats on most injuries per year?

google - Lions 2015, **** and damnation.

 

[James North]

google - Lions 2015, **** and damnation.

It's a write-off for me (2015) ... I just can't make a judgment on anything other than people's attack on the ball.

 

[MacMum]

Plenty disagree, and think I overstate our woes this season, but I'm content with my opinion that the coach started and pretty much was snookered all year behind the 8 ball.
2 years rejuvenating the list and an injury riddled season from hell, I find it impossible to judge the coach on on field results. The whole win/loss thing has to be viewed in context.
Wait until the end of this season is the next suggestion, but in a year of consolidation and asking players and members to "buy in" and place faith in the coarse we're on, it seems a bit half arsed if we and the club don't extend that faith and commitment to the coach.
"Believe in what we're doing and where we're headed, what we've started and are building, but let's see how it goes for few months before actually sticking with it".
Not sure that's the message I want to hear, or the one to sell. Like trying to sell a new car, but offering a 6 month warranty. Roll the dice, go all in, believe.

Couldn't agree more Skoob. Massive amount of "likes" from me on this subject.

I feel very strongly that we must give Leppa a chance to build this new team, a team that finally looks like it could be something to give us hope after years of doom and gloom..

I can't think of anything worse than to see him sacked from pressure from our own supporters and their high expectations. Surely you don't need to be Einstein to work out that our injury list of last year killed any hope of decent results.

The last thing Leppa and the team need through the year is whinges/criticism and added pressure from their own fan base.

He is virtually starting again. Lets at least give him a fair chance and some faith and support from us.

No other coach could've done better than Leppa last year. Not one of them.

I don't want to see us supporters end up sounding like the Richmond fans, who bey for blood at the drop of a hat.

We are better than that....or I hope we are anyway.

 

[blynd_freddie]

I think the injuries have to be part of the equation - Leppa swapped/rotated and played kids out of position throughout the later part of the season. Personally, I think Leppa has to have a year of credit because of how shit 2015 was injury wise - the option of a 4th year has to be dangled but I assume the club will have KPI's both listed and in an envelope marked - DO NOT OPEN until the completion of round 23 2016.

 

[crispy creme]

Definitely splinters for me from sitting on the fence, but IMO it would be irresponsible of the club to give him an extension at this point in time. If we turn at the halfway mark somewhere around 50/50 or better, then an extension would be almost a given - if we are 2&10 then serious questions would need to be asked. No rush to resign him - realistically, who is going to poach him?

 

[Sherrinator]

I think the injuries have to be part of the equation - Leppa swapped/rotated and played kids out of position throughout the later part of the season. Personally, I think Leppa has to have a year of credit because of how shit 2015 was injury wise - the option of a 4th year has to be dangled but I assume the club will have KPI's both listed and in an envelope marked - DO NOT OPEN until the completion of round 23 2016.

Not to mention the Aish cloud.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

I love the way Matthews is sitting in the background but stamping the moves and decisions being made. He said he was using the Dunstall role as his model and you can see it is playing itself out.

 

[Layland_brother]

Not convinced at all sadly. I hope he can pull it off but I and others have been saying that for two years. I have turned before, but come the bye next season is my timeline. Sack Leepa and go for Black, let's go another three peat.

 

[Viceregal]

Not convinced at all sadly. I hope he can pull it off but I and others have been saying that for two years. I have turned before, but come the bye next season is my timeline. Sack Leepa and go for Black, let's go another three peat.

Traditionally coaches are sourced from people who have performed well as assistant coaches in a range of locations and not just their home system ... or (as per Aker) have done senior coaching in lower leagues (and even he is applying for assistant coaching jobs as part of his pathway to the senior gig at AFL level). What makes you think Simon Black is the exception and has he even done the coaching certification yet?

 

[M Malice]

Not convinced at all sadly. I hope he can pull it off but I and others have been saying that for two years. i have turned before, but come the bye next season is my timeline. Sack Leepa and go for Black, let's go another three peat.

 

[Eons]

Hard to say just yet, my gut feeling is yes. If we can avoid having a horror year with injuries and we can snatch 8-10 years it would be a great sign that Leppa is the man to lead us forward. One thing that was very positive was our last round against the Bulldogs. We had nothing to play for and we won, shows he still has the support of the playing group.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Not to mention the Aish cloud.

Yep - stuffed people around big time both in Brisbane and Bali.

 

[Gadzorks]

Injuries result from collisions or poor preparation.
I can't find the article but I read recently that the Lions had about 3 times the league average injury events in 2015. Given the change in the training staff and the comments from the player re this year's preseason being different to previous years I hold hope that the poor preparation injuries will be significantly lower next season, giving Leppa a chance to show his game plan/coaching skills. I sincerely hope he dazzles us.

 

[western royboy]

Hard to say just yet, my gut feeling is yes. If we can avoid having a horror year with injuries and we can snatch 8-10 years it would be a great sign that Leppa is the man to lead us forward. One thing that was very positive was our last round against the Bulldogs. We had nothing to play for and we won, shows he still has the support of the playing group.

I tend to ignore the last round and in the period before late round wins - I reckon they can give false hope. I recall a late win against the Dogs at the Gabba a season or two back and went home confident that we were miles in front of them & boy was I wrong. Leppa has had a pretty easy run so to speak- expectations have been 0, so it's not hard to meet or exceed them. Last year there was hope (false) that we could possibly make the 8 - yet we were the first team out of contention. Yep injuries cruelled our shallow list but we didn't seem to have a lot of fight at times (from the limited bits I saw). So at this time of the year, every club is selling hope and so are we. We have been a bottom six club for nigh on 6 years, which coincides with the introduction of the Suns. We still have the youngest list in the competition, when the oldest lists are the ones battling it out. I don't think there is any paradigm shift coming that will change that. Weighing everything up - I can't see us getting out of the bottom 6 this year all things being equal. Which brings me to Leppa - I honestly don't know if he can coach or not and I'm not confident I'll learn anymore this year.