Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[Dory_77]

So open we can jump out? I agree!

 

[SugarHealey]

We’re 9-10 since Round 11, 2022 and the 10-0 before that was largely based off of playing in bursts against inferior opposition. The bottom line is, we haven’t played consistently well since the 2021 Finals Series.



The 2021 Premiership was a terrific achievement based on a rock solid team defence, an excellent midfield performance and more than a fair share of luck with injury. The four defeats and draw came from usually lowly opposition tactically exploiting small weaknesses in our game. Adelaide rolled the dice by running and gunning down the middle and won by a point, Collingwood stretched us by chipping the ball short and using angles and width well, GWS used Whitfield as an extra off the back of the stoppage to cut up our zone by running through the lines, The Bulldogs were better in wet conditions at the G and scored a lot of ground ball goals and Hawthorn forced a draw by essentially a combination of what GWS and the Dogs were doing. However, none of these losses were comprehensive floggings (20 points against the Dogs was the worst margin), the team performance was no worse than other scrappy wins against Essendon and Sydney, and Melbourne had a chance to win each game until very late in the piece.



If you were to dissect the team/squad that won that flag it would go:



#1 Big Boys: Gawn, May, Oliver and Petracca

The best fullback, ruck and midfield duo in the comp in 2021. Since then, Gawn and May have missed a handful of games and in a handful of others have either looked banged up or uncharacteristically poor. With both now in their 30s it wouldn’t be silly to assume further disruption and regression in performance. Whereas Petracca and Oliver are in their prime but have had their own fitness, form and confidence issues since 2021, Petracca more so than Oliver.



Elite by position - A graders: Fritsch, Langdon, Lever and Salem.

Lever and Salem were All Australians in 2021 but basically All Poo in 2022. Fritsch has continued to be a deadly finisher and has largely held his form. Langdon had an excellent 2021 but faded and was negated in 2022 by opposition tactics and turgid ball movement in transition.



Set and forget role players: Brayshaw, B Brown, Harmes, Jackson, McDonald, Neal-Bullen, Petty, Pickett, Rivers, Spargo, Tomlinson*, Viney

All of these players were good to excellent in their roles in 2021 but Pickett aside, there has not been much improvement in this group. B Brown, Harmes, McDonald and Tomlinson have all gone massively backwards. Brayshaw, Petty and Viney were all quite good in 22 but have been terrible in patches 23. Rivers has been erratic and ANB and Spargo are probably always going to be at this level where they look good when the team is on but poor when we’re not.



Depth/Cover: Bowey, M Brown, Hibberd, Hunt, Jetta, Jones, Jordon, Melksham, Smith, Sparrow, Weideman

These players all played a role in the 21 flag and were largely interchangeable as bottom of the 22/depth. Arguably the biggest problem in this group is that the likes of Sparrow and Bowey haven’t really been able to emulate their 2021 finals form since. Why Melksham is still getting games beggars belief and speaks to a combination of s**t selection, regression from role players and probably not enough other depth coming through to take his spot.



In 2023, the dissection of the squad/list would go something like:



#1 Big Boys: Gawn, May, Oliver and Petracca



Elite by position - A graders: Fritsch, Lever, Pickett



Set and forget/role players: Grundy, Hunter, Langdon, Neal-Bullen, Spargo



Depth/Cover: Bowey, Brayshaw, B Brown, Chandler, Dunstan, Harmes, Hibberd, Jordon, Laurie, McDonald, McVee, Melksham, Petty, Rivers, Salem, Smith, Sparrow, Tomlinson, Turner, Van Rooyen, Viney



Teams that have won multiple flags usually have 1-2 years at the beginning of their run where they dominate Home and Away and then Finals. Then, they navigate the season, secure a top 2/4 spot and then boss the finals. I don’t doubt that we’re trying to adjust and there have been some problems with injuries/form which could in turn affect/explain the mixed results. But, it’s hard to see us winning s**t if we’re hoping and praying that the big boys magically recapture their best form without adding to the squad or getting some drastic improvement from within.

An interesting read now, after earlier in this year.

If we're not moving forward, then we are being passed by.

 

[schmuttt]

Window is shut for this group. Have gotten worse each year and very few individuals have improved.

 

[Daemon]

Weekly update:

Liquid nails applied to window frame and sill.

See you in 57 years to crack it back open.

 

[Bluelegs]

Window is shut for this group. Have gotten worse each year and very few individuals have improved.

Not willing to go this far quite yet. Think it really depends how we recruit this off-season.

 

[Topkent]

Window is shut for this group. Have gotten worse each year and very few individuals have improved.

Oh it's completely shut as a few of us called already. Shoutout Johnny Karate for having the balls to say it instead of nuffing

 

[CTHORANGE]

Window is shut for this group. Have gotten worse each year and very few individuals have improved.

i reckon we were better this year than last year, but now we have the choking issue to deal with, but yeh could see a drop off next year unless we get a couple of decent recruits/draftees in

 

[mrmonkey]

I don't think the window is shut, I still think this group is good enough but have blown a big opportunity this year. Had some real unfortunate injuries would really like to see more petty forward, will have to stew on it for another 6 months.

 

[Topkent]

i reckon we were better this year than last year, but now we have the choking issue to deal with, but yeh could see a drop off next year unless we get a couple of decent recruits/draftees in

Ultimately not really better. Same H/A record and same finals inability to score. Our game style absolutely reeks and the campaigners will probably think if we just keep doing the same thing again and kick a little better it's fine

 

[booshboy]

Yes

 

[dazzledavey36]

Here I was thinking after the Sydney game that we were a genuine premiership contender.

Embarrassed now.

 

[Topkent]

Anyone who actually thought we were winning this flag had the thickest Melbourne goggles on you've ever seen. We basically went into a finals series saying 'if we can fix these things'

That's now how finals work, you don't fix things you get exposed for them. We aren't ****ing Brisbane 2001-03 with 15 AA level players.

Obvious to anyone who could look impartially we were barely a shot.

 

[Topkent]

We genuinely believed our own shit that we were a dynasty side after 2022 and instead of doing things to fix and improve the side we stood still and doubled down on 21.
That's why we are here

 

[Tulip]

Closed for this 22. Maybe open for another couple if we make changes.

 

[Moonatic77]

Shouldn't be shut IMO. Won the flag in 2021 being an attacking/ offensive side. Saw the opposite of that tonight.

 

[Johnny Karate]

What blows my mind is how we went from playing terrific finals football in 2021 to turgid also rans in 22-23. Barely a player that’s improved since then and nothing of note coming through.

We look great statistically but find ways to lose.

I feel another coach might get more out of us but maybe the players’ bellies are full and they’re happy with 21?

The list and gameplan needs a major overhaul that may take years to pull off. I don’t think we can go back to the well with this group or this plan given 4 straight finals losses.

 

[Topkent]

What blows my mind is how we went from playing terrific finals football in 2021 to turgid also rans in 22-23. Barely a player that’s improved since then and nothing of note coming through.

We look great statistically but find ways to lose.

I feel another coach might get more out of us but maybe the players’ bellies are full and they’re happy with 21?

The list and gameplan needs a major overhaul that may take years to pull off. I don’t think we can go back to the well with this group or this plan given 4 straight finals losses.

She's done mate. Tell me a side that's won a flag after being bundle out in finals 2 years in a row. 2021 is getting further and further away. We are a real shot of missing top 4 altogether next year.

 

[Scud2]

I think it’s open.

Took a punt on Grundy that did not work. That can hopefully be fixed this off-season by moving on.

Injuries to key forward line players really all year. Especially at the wrong time of year.

Only lost two finals by a kick and a bit combined.

 

[Topkent]

I think it’s open.

Took a punt on Grundy that did not work. That can hopefully be fixed this off-season by moving on.

Injuries to key forward line players really all year. Especially at the wrong time of year.

Only lost two finals by a kick and a bit combined.

So you think we'll be better than you next year?

 

[Jamurp]

Not closed, our forward line is ridiculous and injuries to key players has screwed us this season, think we can challenge for top 4 next season again.

Thing that shits me is that teams will go past us from here unless we don’t genuinely improve, feels like a second flag really was last or this year.

I still think we’ll finish top 4 next season.

 

[Scud2]

So you think we'll be better than you next year?

I reckon Melbourne were better than Collingwood this year but Melbourne have the scope and assets to improve their list substantially more than Collingwood this off-season.

Got draft capital as well!

 

[Major Colvin]

the club should thank its lucky stars it managed to secure a premiership in 2021

definitely secured it about 10 years of undeserved revenue

and about 5 undeserved years of Goodwins contract

 

[Johnny Karate]

I think it’s open.

Took a punt on Grundy that did not work. That can hopefully be fixed this off-season by moving on.

Injuries to key forward line players really all year. Especially at the wrong time of year.

Only lost two finals by a kick and a bit combined.

I remember when Collingwood were struggling from 14-17, missed finals in all those years but were still somewhat competitive and capable of causing any teams headaches on their day. I remember lurking on the Collingwood board after a loss to Carlton and one post that resonated went along the lines of: “It’s as if Buckley sets up the game so we’re always within 20 points but because our skills are so shit we never get closer.”

Melbourne rarely get smashed and that’s testament to our defence but we are so inefficient we can lose to anyone because it takes us 20 minutes to creep to 3 goals but 2 minutes to concede 3 if the midfield falls asleep. In short, maybe we’re simply a better version of Buckley’s 14-17 sides?

 

[Topkent]

I reckon Melbourne were better than Collingwood this year but Melbourne have the scope and assets to improve their list substantially more than Collingwood this off-season.

Got draft capital as well!

I mean you finished 2 games above us and won through to a prelim, reckon you might have had us covered this year.

 

[Major Colvin]

honestly lets not make finals again if we have a bedwetting coach/team

just **** off back down the bottom of the ladder when everyone knew their place