Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[Tiger2709]

if an interstate club wins all its home games?

i dont think the eagles ever have. in 2018 when we won the flag we won 7 against clubs flying in and 2 against the dockers.

a total of 9 games at home - we won the rest on the road.


you mexicans think we can just snap our fingers and win at optus - by that logic we should also lose every game away.


as for the mcg being the most neutral ground - heres an english lesson for you:


View attachment 963545


the mcg has the MOST tenants meaning by very definition it is the LEAST neutral ground as its the ground where a non tenant is most likely to meet a tenant in a gf.

the most neutral ground in australia is adelaide oval - it has only 2 tenants so a low probability of meeting a tenant in a gf - its as centrally located as possible allowing a fairly even distance to travel for all clubs.

you couldnt be more wrong

LOL are you serious?

Your not yelling at a foreigner language speaker champ, I was actually born in Oxford and I live in WA.


neutral
/ˈnjuːtr(ə)l/

1.
not supporting or helping either side in a conflict, disagreement, etc.; impartial.

2.
having no strongly marked or positive characteristics or features.

Definitions from Oxford Languages

Now tell me how does playing at the MCG assist a team when they play a co tenant, it doesn't it is therefore neutral, 4 co tenants plus the other Vic sides that play all their block busters there make it the most neutral ground in the AFL.

 

[Carringbush2010]

its almost like theres too many teams in one city.....

It's exactly like those teams you elude to have been there at minimum 100 years and aren't likely to go anywhere soon, and it's exactly like you can accept what we have or you don't. Your choice.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Accept or don't?

Go to any game day thread and have a gander at the whining, it is the same people doing it, acceptance is not an option.

Oh well, misery for them I guess.

 

[kranky al]

LOL are you serious?

Your not yelling at a foreigner language speaker champ, I was actually born in Oxford and I live in WA.


neutral
/ˈnjuːtr(ə)l/

1.
not supporting or helping either side in a conflict, disagreement, etc.; impartial.

2.
having no strongly marked or positive characteristics or features.

Definitions from Oxford Languages

Now tell me how does playing at the MCG assist a team when they play a co tenant, it doesn't it is therefore neutral, 4 co tenants plus the other Vic sides that play all their block busters there make it the most neutral ground in the AFL.

for the tenant teams.

its not neutral for all the other teams.

the mcg offers the highest statistical probability that a tenant team will meet a non tenant team in a gf therefore its the LEAST neutral ground.


theres maths as well mate - if you need help with social studies or science feel free to ask.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Can you believe the Vic bias? Now they're whinging that the eagles get to quarantine at home in their own beds while the poor Victorian clubs have to sleep in hotel beds, which is something we do every year we play the grand final.

‘Clubs are uncomfortable'

West Coast have left clubs feeling ‘uncomfortable’, according to this journalist.

www.perthnow.com.au

Whether people want to admit it or not while the GF is played at the MCG every year it will never be a level playing field. As going by Caroline Wilson's logic
premierships won there by the home teams should not be rated as much as when it's won by interstate clubs who can't sleep in their own beds.

If you think that caro represents the mind of the vic footy fan then that's just insulting.

 

[kranky al]

It's exactly like those teams you elude to have been there at minimum 100 years and aren't likely to go anywhere soon, and it's exactly like you can accept what we have or you don't. Your choice.

well clearly i dont accept it.

 

[Carringbush2010]

It's not that great buuuuuut it's the Grand Final.

Most teams won't make the Grand Final, so aren't affected.

Many teams who make the Grand Final aren't traveling from interstate to face an MCG tenant opponent, so it's a non-factor.

Most Grand Finals aren't close, so it won't be decisive.

But!!! But but but. If you are a non-Vic team, the possibility remains that you can make the Grand Final, and have to travel to face an MCG tenant opponent - maybe even one who finished lower on the ladder - and it will be close, and you'll get screwed out of a premiership.

So naturally people get antsy about it. It's like your roommate keeping a pit bull as a pet: He can swear it's a good boy and it's always tied up and you have nothing to worry about, but it is a constant source of anxiety that one day that freaking dog is going to get loose and bite you.

That's a really good analogy.

There is one solution but it ain't fixing the problem, seeing how the dog was already in the neighbours yard that means the dog's gonna stay. So you move or you accept that the dog may get off the leash one day.

 

[Carringbush2010]

well clearly i dont accept it.

Ok. oh hang on wait, it isn't is it.

 

[Final Siren]

Can you believe the Vic bias? Now they're whinging that the eagles get to quarantine at home in their own beds while the poor Victorian clubs have to sleep in hotel beds, which is something we do every year we play the grand final.

‘Clubs are uncomfortable'

West Coast have left clubs feeling ‘uncomfortable’, according to this journalist.

www.perthnow.com.au

Well, if West Coast finish 5th, they'll do so on the back of 6 games with home advantage (all wins), ahead of Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, and Melbourne, who've had 1 home advantage game between them.

So it does seem a little on the nose that this entitles the Eagles to even more home advantage, over the very teams who have already suffered the most lopsided fixture disadvantages.

And obviously the Vic team would need to quarantine for a week - during a finals campaign! - which isn't what normally happens, either.

 

[Final Siren]

View attachment 963599View attachment 963600View attachment 963601View attachment 963602
for the tenant teams.

its not neutral for all the other teams.

the mcg offers the highest statistical probability that a tenant team will meet a non tenant team in a gf therefore its the LEAST neutral ground.


theres maths as well mate - if you need help with social studies or science feel free to ask.

[edit: This is wrong as I didn't properly account for reverse matchups, e.g. not just Port v Richmond but Richmond v Port. The chances are are higher than listed here - 21% of an AO tenant v out-of-state matchup, and the same for an MCG v out-of-state matchup assuming 4 MCG tenants. If you count 5 teams as MCG tenants, it's 26%; if you count 6, it's 31%.]

This was an interesting thought so I decided to figure it out.

​	​ Chance of tenant​	​ vs Chance of interstate​	​ Chance of Both​
MCG​	28%​	47%​	13%​
Adelaide Oval​	11%​	94%​	10%​

So Adelaide Oval has a surprisingly similar chance of a tenant vs non-tenant Grand Final. There's a 2-in-18 chance that one of the Adelaide teams makes it, and if they do, it's almost certain (16/17) that their opponent will be from out of town.

But that's not all! HGA is different at different grounds, and tends to be higher at grounds that most teams don't play very often. So if you adjust for the fact that an Adelaide Oval GF would probably be asking teams to play at an unfamiliar ground, it works out almost exactly the same.

​	​ Chance of Mismatch​	​ Average HGA​	​ Points​
MCG​	13%​	8.5​	1.11​
Adelaide Oval​	10%​	10.5​	1.10​

In reality, of course, the advantage is worth 0 points most years and a bundle of points the other years. But on average, the disparity is worth 1.11 points per year at the MCG, and would be worth 1.10 points per year if the GF were at Adelaide Oval.

 

[bh90210fan]

Well, if West Coast finish 5th, they'll do so on the back of 6 games with home advantage (all wins), ahead of Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, and Melbourne, who've had 1 home advantage game between them.

So it does seem a little on the nose that this entitles the Eagles to even more home advantage, over the very teams who have already suffered the most lopsided fixture disadvantages.

And obviously the Vic team would need to quarantine for a week - during a finals campaign! - which isn't what normally happens, either.

Non Victorian clubs live in a hotel in the week leading up to a grand final every year, so yeah, it does happen now and then.

We also play finals on your home ground when we qualify higher, which is more than just a little on the nose, so I’m sure the Melbourne clubs can suck it up for one season and play us on our home ground when we’ve earned it

 

[bh90210fan]

This was an interesting thought so I decided to figure it out.

​	​ Chance of tenant​	​ vs Chance of interstate​	​ Chance of Both​
MCG​	28%​	47%​	13%​
Adelaide Oval​	11%​	94%​	10%​

So Adelaide Oval has a surprisingly similar chance of a tenant vs non-tenant Grand Final. There's a 2-in-18 chance that one of the Adelaide teams makes it, and if they do, it's almost certain (16/17) that their opponent will be from out of town.

But that's not all! HGA is different at different grounds, and tends to be higher at grounds that most teams don't play very often. So if you adjust for the fact that an Adelaide Oval GF would probably be asking teams to play at an unfamiliar ground, it works out almost exactly the same.

​	​ Chance of Mismatch​	​ Average HGA​	​ Points​
MCG​	13%​	8.5​	1.11​
Adelaide Oval​	10%​	10.5​	1.10​

In reality, of course, the advantage is worth 0 points most years and a bundle of points the other years. But on average, the disparity is worth 1.11 points per year at the MCG, and would be worth 1.10 points per year if the GF were at Adelaide Oval.

Are you counting Essendon and Carlton in this?

 

[Final Siren]

Are you counting Essendon and Carlton in this?

Carlton but not Essendon. I guess it's a bit arbitrary because both play 4 or 5 MCG home games a year. And the Hawks don't play their full allotment there. But close enough.

 

[Kwality]

LOL are you serious?

Your not yelling at a foreigner language speaker champ, I was actually born in Oxford and I live in WA.


neutral
/ˈnjuːtr(ə)l/

1.
not supporting or helping either side in a conflict, disagreement, etc.; impartial.

2.
having no strongly marked or positive characteristics or features.

Definitions from Oxford Languages

Now tell me how does playing at the MCG assist a team when they play a co tenant, it doesn't it is therefore neutral, 4 co tenants plus the other Vic sides that play all their block busters there make it the most neutral ground in the AFL.

The concept of home & away is a State League term & when applied to the national comp in the 21st Century it results in nonsense as you so clearly describe: the most neutral ground

Time to revisit what home means, what away means.

 

[Kwality]

So it does seem a little on the nose that this entitles the Eagles to even more home advantage

This year its relevant to the Eagles IF they are good enough to get there. We've got to 7 x GFs in the AFL era .... never faced that possibility before, wont again in my life time.
Thing about GFs is you have to be good enough to get there & this discrimination works in favour of some clubs, its gifted not earned.

 

[bh90210fan]

Carlton but not Essendon. I guess it's a bit arbitrary because both play 4 or 5 MCG home games a year. And the Hawks don't play their full allotment there. But close enough.

Might want to rethink that. Just had a look and both clubs have averaged about 8 mcg games a season over the last few years

 

[Goomba1973]

Quite a number of Interstate fans have been present on the big day supporting their team. Personally I think it's a myth about the MCG '' advantage ''

It didn't stop WCE twice in the 1990's from disposing of Geelong. The Adelaide Crows got up against Vic opp in 97 and 98, and the Swans and Eagles also produced against their Vic Counterparts in 2012 and 2018. In between all of this, the magical magician work of the Brisbane Lions saw it produce 3 successive flags on Victorian soil all against VIC opponents.

2004, 2005, 2006 produced ALL-Interstate Grand Finalists and in two of those two teams, the Lions in 2004 and Swans in 05, both won their preliminary finals at the MCG, against Geelong and St.Kilda.

Before West Coast saluted last year, we had a stretch of 5 successive Grand Finals from 2013-2017 where the interstate sides got rolled to their Vic nemesis. '' Wasn't fair playing at the MCG '' were the cries.

What changed in between from the days that the Eagles triumphed in 1992-2018. More so, the years that the opposition supporters were barking at in 2013-2017? WCE played the Hawks in 2015 with an extra weeks rest as well as toppling them in week 1 of the finals.

Sour grapes, or do the Interstate fans have a point?


Conversely, there are some that believe the Interstate sides hold an advantage throughout the home and away season because they don't share their ground with rival tenants { except twice a year for some ) for example Collingwood might have a home game at the MCG, but play a fellow Victorian club like Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne or Hawthorn there. Crowd factor may not be the full brunt like an Eagles or Adelaide home game would be. I do see their point to a certain degree. But I feel like the MCG factor on Grand Final day, this has been happening for a long time in our game now. IMO it's simply not true. At the end of the day, you have to be good enough where you play against who you play.

There are advantages for you just as there are disadvantages. They are not the big mountain obstacles which many make out.


Suck it up and overcome whatever/whoever's in front of you. That's what winners do.

There is always an advantage for a team that does not have to travel regardless of the location, however the G is the home of footy and that is where the GF is played, and interstate clubs know this . So yes suck it up and overcome. The only time I think it is unfair and Geelong supporters would know this well is when you earned your home final (not GF) and don't get to play it at home.

 

[Final Siren]

Might want to rethink that. Just had a look and both clubs have averaged about 8 mcg games a season over the last few years

All clubs play more MCG games than their home allotment (if any) because they have to play away games vs MCG tenants.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Whomever plays the most home games AND travels the least is advantaged.

Teams that have two home grounds like Geelong, or that play away games at their home ground like Collingwood, would definitely have an extra leg up.

 

[bh90210fan]

All clubs play more MCG games than their home allotment (if any) because they have to play away games vs MCG tenants.

Yes, i understand that. Just suggesting that you might want to include them in your calculations considering they both play so regularly on the ground

 

[Niggles]

Ahh yes. I long for those days where the Eagles and pies had that special bond together after 2018 (due to ones embarrassment and the others contempt) in which they all were a united force after WC pulled off the biggest Bradbury since the man himself coined the term. Even the Collingwood fans lately have become sick of the constant tears and whinging from the usual entitled WC fans that even they're finally starting to lose patience with their constant sulking. Hallelujah.

 

[kranky al]

This was an interesting thought so I decided to figure it out.

​	Chance of tenant​	vs Chance of interstate​	Chance of Both​
MCG​	28%​	47%​	13%​
Adelaide Oval​	11%​	94%​	10%​

So Adelaide Oval has a surprisingly similar chance of a tenant vs non-tenant Grand Final. There's a 2-in-18 chance that one of the Adelaide teams makes it, and if they do, it's almost certain (16/17) that their opponent will be from out of town.

But that's not all! HGA is different at different grounds, and tends to be higher at grounds that most teams don't play very often. So if you adjust for the fact that an Adelaide Oval GF would probably be asking teams to play at an unfamiliar ground, it works out almost exactly the same.

​	Chance of Mismatch​	Average HGA​	Points​
MCG​	13%​	8.5​	1.11​
Adelaide Oval​	10%​	10.5​	1.10​

In reality, of course, the advantage is worth 0 points most years and a bundle of points the other years. But on average, the disparity is worth 1.11 points per year at the MCG, and would be worth 1.10 points per year if the GF were at Adelaide Oval.

check your maths.

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

Well, if West Coast finish 5th, they'll do so on the back of 6 games with home advantage (all wins), ahead of Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, and Melbourne, who've had 1 home advantage game between them.

So it does seem a little on the nose that this entitles the Eagles to even more home advantage, over the very teams who have already suffered the most lopsided fixture disadvantages.

And obviously the Vic team would need to quarantine for a week - during a finals campaign! - which isn't what normally happens, either.

Give me a break. Brisbane players have been sleeping in their own beds all year yet I don’t hear you complaining. Port players too will be sleeping in their own beds when they play in Adelaide for the finals series but I don’t see you mentioning that either.

West Coast have been shafted for many years in the VFL/AFL. If they finish fifth they have earned the right to a home final.

Considering the amount of gifts Richmond and Collingwood receive in fixturing every year (this year is an anomaly) there is little cause for complaining.

 

[Niggles]

Give me a break. Brisbane players have been sleeping in their own beds all year yet I don’t hear you complaining. Port players too will be sleeping in their own beds when they play in Adelaide for the finals series but I don’t see you mentioning that either.

West Coast have been shafted for many years in the VFL/AFL. If they finish fifth they have earned the right to a home final.

Considering the amount of gifts Richmond and Collingwood receive in fixturing every year (this year is an anomaly) there is little cause for complaining.

Yet here you are, still complaining

 

[kranky al]

Yet here you are, still complaining

one year out of 30+