Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[PowerForGood]

This was an interesting thought so I decided to figure it out.

​	​ Chance of tenant​	​ vs Chance of interstate​	​ Chance of Both​
MCG​	28%​	47%​	13%​
Adelaide Oval​	11%​	94%​	10%​

So Adelaide Oval has a surprisingly similar chance of a tenant vs non-tenant Grand Final. There's a 2-in-18 chance that one of the Adelaide teams makes it, and if they do, it's almost certain (16/17) that their opponent will be from out of town.

But that's not all! HGA is different at different grounds, and tends to be higher at grounds that most teams don't play very often. So if you adjust for the fact that an Adelaide Oval GF would probably be asking teams to play at an unfamiliar ground, it works out almost exactly the same.

​	​ Chance of Mismatch​	​ Average HGA​	​ Points​
MCG​	13%​	8.5​	1.11​
Adelaide Oval​	10%​	10.5​	1.10​

In reality, of course, the advantage is worth 0 points most years and a bundle of points the other years. But on average, the disparity is worth 1.11 points per year at the MCG, and would be worth 1.10 points per year if the GF were at Adelaide Oval.

So this assume there's no advantage to non-MCG tenant Vic teams hosting a non-Vic team in a GF?
Riiiggghhhttt....

And as for this comment "if you adjust for the fact that an Adelaide Oval GF would probably be asking teams to play at an unfamiliar ground, it works out almost exactly the same.", you might be surprised as to how small the difference is between say Port Adelaide games at the MCG vs any Vic team games at Adelaide Oval, since 2015.

 

[kranky al]

the odds of a non- tenant meeting a tenant in a gf at the g are - 77/153 - ie just over 50%

the odds of a non tenant meeting a tenant at ao are - 32/153 ie around 20%

 

[Final Siren]

Give me a break. Brisbane players have been sleeping in their own beds all year yet I don’t hear you complaining. Port players too will be sleeping in their own beds when they play in Adelaide for the finals series but I don’t see you mentioning that either.

West Coast have been shafted for many years in the VFL/AFL. If they finish fifth they have earned the right to a home final.

Considering the amount of gifts Richmond and Collingwood receive in fixturing every year (this year is an anomaly) there is little cause for complaining.

Obviously Brisbane (especially) and Port have had a remarkably favorable fixture too. I don’t think anyone’s arguing otherwise?

I’m still not sure how “earned” a home Elimination Final would be if West Coast finish 5th on the back of 5 or 6 extra home advantage games than their 8th-placed opponent.

That’s a much bigger disparity than the kind people usually complain about in here.

 

[kranky al]

Obviously Brisbane (especially) and Port have had a remarkably favorable fixture too. I don’t think anyone’s arguing otherwise?

I’m still not sure how “earned” a home Elimination Final would be if West Coast finish 5th on the back of 5 or 6 extra home advantage games than their 8th-placed opponent.

That’s a much bigger disparity than the kind people usually complain about in here.

well id have loved for them to all have come at the end of the season - all in a row

but the tigers we aint...

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

Obviously Brisbane (especially) and Port have had a remarkably favorable fixture too. I don’t think anyone’s arguing otherwise?

I’m still not sure how “earned” a home Elimination Final would be if West Coast finish 5th on the back of 5 or 6 extra home advantage games than their 8th-placed opponent.

That’s a much bigger disparity than the kind people usually complain about in here.

Yet here you are, still complaining

I am pointing out some facts.

Then how are Brisbane and Port finals earned?

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

Obviously Brisbane (especially) and Port have had a remarkably favorable fixture too. I don’t think anyone’s arguing otherwise?

I’m still not sure how “earned” a home Elimination Final would be if West Coast finish 5th on the back of 5 or 6 extra home advantage games than their 8th-placed opponent.

That’s a much bigger disparity than the kind people usually complain about in here.

Considering the ridiculous run of home games you had in 2017 and 2019 you, like other Victorians, whingeing is ludicrous.

 

[Rich01]

check your maths.

Where do you see the error Kranky?

 

[kranky al]

Where do you see the error Kranky?

the odds of a non- tenant meeting a tenant in a gf at the g are - 77/153 - ie just over 50%

the odds of a non tenant meeting a tenant at ao are - 32/153 ie around 20%

 

[PowerBaz]

Obviously Brisbane (especially) and Port have had a remarkably favorable fixture too. I don’t think anyone’s arguing otherwise?

I’m still not sure how “earned” a home Elimination Final would be if West Coast finish 5th on the back of 5 or 6 extra home advantage games than their 8th-placed opponent.

That’s a much bigger disparity than the kind people usually complain about in here.

We’ve traveled probably more than anyone, yet still have a favoured draw...? It’s ok you’ll be back to normal next year. Delusional.

 

[Rich01]

the odds of a non- tenant meeting a tenant in a gf at the g are - 77/153 - ie just over 50%

the odds of a non tenant meeting a tenant at ao are - 32/153 ie around 20%

Can you explain your numbers?

 

[kranky al]

Can you explain your numbers?

nah my uncle is a maths teacher -

been way too long since i did probability...

 

[Farang83150]

nah my uncle is a maths teacher -

been way too long since i did probability...View attachment 965361View attachment 965365

Is that Larry David in your chat!

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Some posters really can’t let go of the suburban league

 

[kranky al]

Is that Larry David in your chat!

nah uncle ted

 

[Final Siren]

Considering the ridiculous run of home games you had in 2017 and 2019 you, like other Victorians, whingeing is ludicrous.

If you want to pretend that MCG co-tenants get the same advantage from playing each other on a shared ground that West Coast does from hosting clubs from out of state, then sure, go ahead and tell yourself Melbourne clubs get an unfair number of "home" games.

In reality, all clubs get a basically neutral fixture, with home advantages almost entirely balanced by their away disadvantages.

In 2020, however, this is seriously out of whack, and Victorian clubs have had few or no games with home advantage, but plenty away with disadvantage. Where in a normal season there might be a couple of goals net difference between clubs across the season, this year the difference is more like 12 or 14 goals.

That's no-one's fault; it's just the situation we find ourselves in. But it's the reality.

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

If you want to pretend that MCG co-tenants get the same advantage from playing each other on a shared ground that West Coast does from hosting clubs from out of state, then sure, go ahead and tell yourself Melbourne clubs get an unfair number of "home" games.

In reality, all clubs get a basically neutral fixture, with home advantages almost entirely balanced by their away disadvantages.

In 2020, however, this is seriously out of whack, and Victorian clubs have had few or no games with home advantage, but plenty away with disadvantage. Where in a normal season there might be a couple of goals net difference between clubs across the season, this year the difference is more like 12 or 14 goals.

That's no-one's fault; it's just the situation we find ourselves in. But it's the reality.

View attachment 966855

I did read a statistical analysis of co-tenants playing each other at their joint home ground where the nominated home team, who obviously get to sell more tickets and have more members and fans present, win more games than they lose.

No Victorian teams travel 10 times a year. If you know you are playing 13 games a year at the MCG another three or four at Marvel and then you might have to travel four or five times it is a huge advantage. Every time a WA team jumps on a plane they lose a day of preparation followed by losing a day of recovery. If you study the history of the Eagles, you will see that they generally win more games in the first half of the season than the second half. This is due to fatigue. I have spoken to leading experts on this matter.

My point was that no Victorian media have been complaining about the huge advantage Brisbane, and to a lesser degree, have had this year. Just because the competition breaks for two weeks before the final, a decision made by Dil McSpuddin, people are complaining about the Eagles heading back to Perth. Why wouldn't they if the opportunity presents itself? Seems like mere commonsense to me.

 

[kranky al]

I did read a statistical analysis of co-tenants playing each other at their joint home ground where the nominated home team, who obviously get to sell more tickets and have more members and fans present, win more games than they lose.

No Victorian teams travel 10 times a year. If you know you are playing 13 games a year at the MCG another three or four at Marvel and then you might have to travel four or five times it is a huge advantage. Every time a WA team jumps on a plane they lose a day of preparation followed by losing a day of recovery. If you study the history of the Eagles, you will see that they generally win more games in the first half of the season than the second half. This is due to fatigue. I have spoken to leading experts on this matter.

My point was that no Victorian media have been complaining about the huge advantage Brisbane, and to a lesser degree, have had this year. Just because the competition breaks for two weeks before the final, a decision made by Dil McSpuddin, people are complaining about the Eagles heading back to Perth. Why wouldn't they if the opportunity presents itself? Seems like mere commonsense to me.

not to mention the extra days our guys work is for no extra money.

 

[Final Siren]

I did read a statistical analysis of co-tenants playing each other at their joint home ground where the nominated home team, who obviously get to sell more tickets and have more members and fans present, win more games than they lose.

No Victorian teams travel 10 times a year. If you know you are playing 13 games a year at the MCG another three or four at Marvel and then you might have to travel four or five times it is a huge advantage. Every time a WA team jumps on a plane they lose a day of preparation followed by losing a day of recovery. If you study the history of the Eagles, you will see that they generally win more games in the first half of the season than the second half. This is due to fatigue. I have spoken to leading experts on this matter.

My point was that no Victorian media have been complaining about the huge advantage Brisbane, and to a lesser degree, have had this year. Just because the competition breaks for two weeks before the final, a decision made by Dil McSpuddin, people are complaining about the Eagles heading back to Perth. Why wouldn't they if the opportunity presents itself? Seems like mere commonsense to me.

I'm not aware of any studies that show that the Eagles (or other oft-traveling AFL teams) fade late in seasons, and this would be very surprising to me, given their success in finals.

I also haven't seen evidence that teams perform worse after shorter breaks. I have seen articles from people who went looking for it and found nothing:

Does an Extra Day's Rest Matter in the Home and Away Season? — Matter of Stats

Whenever the draw for a new season is revealed there's much discussion about the teams that face one another only once, about which teams need to travel interstate more than others, and about which teams are asked to play successive games with fewer days rest. There is in the discussion an implicit

www.matterofstats.com

Give It A Break: Do Shorter Turnarounds Really Disadvantage AFL Teams?

The AFL will in the near future make the unprecedented move of fixturing 33 games across 19 days of uninterrupted football, attempting to squeeze four rounds of the Coronavirus-affected 2020 season into as little time as possible.

www.statsinsider.com.au

There is, however, clear evidence that home advantage exists regardless of whether there's any travel. You can see this easily enough when Melbourne clubs play Geelong at Kardinia, but it's also common in other sports: even when cross-town rivals play and both teams sleep in their own beds, there's a strong home advantage effect when the stands are dominated by one team's fans. And when there are no fans at all (like this year), most of the home advantage effect immediately vanishes.

There is some evidence that West Coast players may have shorter careers, which could be linked to travel; I'll give you that. Also I'm sure all clubs would rather stay home than travel.

My issue with West Coast vs 8th this year is that some poor club is going to be punished for not winning more of their many away-with-disadvantage games by being given yet another one in an Elimination Final against a club who finished above them on the back of 6 true homes. I'm not saying there's a great solution here - West Coast did win those 6 home games, and did finish 5th - but I think you have to acknowledge it's a pretty rough outcome for whoever that turns out to be.

You could say the same for Richmond v whoever and Geelong v whoever but no-one cares about those teams. And they get a double chance anyway.

 

[MVille Swan]

If there was no advantage to Richmond last year playing seven games in a row including the GF at their home ground
then I guess there wouldn't be an issue with say next year West Coast not leaving Optus for the last two months
of the season or Port doing the same at Adelaide Oval.

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

I'm not aware of any studies that show that the Eagles (or other oft-traveling AFL teams) fade late in seasons, and this would be very surprising to me, given their success in finals.

I also haven't seen evidence that teams perform worse after shorter breaks. I have seen articles from people who went looking for it and found nothing:

Does an Extra Day's Rest Matter in the Home and Away Season? — Matter of Stats

Whenever the draw for a new season is revealed there's much discussion about the teams that face one another only once, about which teams need to travel interstate more than others, and about which teams are asked to play successive games with fewer days rest. There is in the discussion an implicit

www.matterofstats.com

Give It A Break: Do Shorter Turnarounds Really Disadvantage AFL Teams?

The AFL will in the near future make the unprecedented move of fixturing 33 games across 19 days of uninterrupted football, attempting to squeeze four rounds of the Coronavirus-affected 2020 season into as little time as possible.

www.statsinsider.com.au

There is, however, clear evidence that home advantage exists regardless of whether there's any travel. You can see this easily enough when Melbourne clubs play Geelong at Kardinia, but it's also common in other sports: even when cross-town rivals play and both teams sleep in their own beds, there's a strong home advantage effect when the stands are dominated by one team's fans. And when there are no fans at all (like this year), most of the home advantage effect immediately vanishes.

There is some evidence that West Coast players may have shorter careers, which could be linked to travel; I'll give you that. Also I'm sure all clubs would rather stay home than travel.

My issue with West Coast vs 8th this year is that some poor club is going to be punished for not winning more of their many away-with-disadvantage games by being given yet another one in an Elimination Final against a club who finished above them on the back of 6 true homes. I'm not saying there's a great solution here - West Coast did win those 6 home games, and did finish 5th - but I think you have to acknowledge it's a pretty rough outcome for whoever that turns out to be.

You could say the same for Richmond v whoever and Geelong v whoever but no-one cares about those teams. And they get a double chance anyway.

There are studies - in America and Europe - regarding the effects of travel regarding time zones especially travelling west to east has on teams performance on the day.

West Coast have also done comprehensive studies which they have submitted to the VFL and AFL.

And no I have zero sympathy for whatever team finishes eighth. Just like Victorians had no sympathy for West Coast having to play home finals in Melbourne during the 1990s when they had earned the right to play them in Perth.

The Eagles would have won more premierships if fixturing has ever been fair.

 

[dean33]

We’ve traveled probably more than anyone, yet still have a favoured draw...? It’s ok you’ll be back to normal next year. Delusional.

View attachment 965167

10 team in Victoria and 8 teams in other states, if we play 5 of those teams on their home grounds that’s about fair I’d say wouldn’t you? Or should we play all 8 interstate teams at their home ground and play other Victorian teams interstate as well?
This Richmond playing so many games at the mcg, compare us against Collingwood and we have a similar number each year. We’d have similar to hawthorn as well however they play home games in Tasmania. Where do you want mcg tenant clubs to play other tenants?
Please come up with something and not just whine and whinge like the rest of you do.

 

[RichLeMonde]

If there was no advantage to Richmond last year playing seven games in a row including the GF at their home ground
then I guess there wouldn't be an issue with say next year West Coast not leaving Optus for the last two months
of the season or Port doing the same at Adelaide Oval.

Given that Richmond’s end to the year meant that they played only 1 game at the G in 7 or 8 weeks, at the start of the season, of course it would be fair for other clubs to have similar blocks of games. Richmond’s end to the season only became an advantage after we won in the road in Adelaide, Perth, Gold Coast, and various marvel games at the start of the year. If we lost those games, Richmond fans would have been cursing, and all other fans cheering, a fixture that put us out of finals contention by round 15.

 

[PowerBaz]

10 team in Victoria and 8 teams in other states, if we play 5 of those teams on their home grounds that’s about fair I’d say wouldn’t you? Or should we play all 8 interstate teams at their home ground and play other Victorian teams interstate as well?
This Richmond playing so many games at the mcg, compare us against Collingwood and we have a similar number each year. We’d have similar to hawthorn as well however they play home games in Tasmania. Where do you want mcg tenant clubs to play other tenants?
Please come up with something and not just whine and whinge like the rest of you do.

It’s just acknowledging the advantage isn’t it?

 

[Ron The Bear]

If there was no advantage to Richmond last year playing seven games in a row including the GF at their home ground

The Grand Final was only the second consecutive game at the MCG.

 

[dean33]

It’s just acknowledging the advantage isn’t it?

Do you have an advantage when you play the crows? Did we get an advantage when we finished 2 games clear on top in 2018 and played 2 neutral finals against fellow mcg tenants?