Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[Alfonz]

If JL really believes it was all about the goalkicking then he's completely clueless. 10.1 to 1.10 looks like it on paper, but almost all of Sydney’s goals were easy shots, whereas almost all of ours were tough chances.

You say almost all ours were tough chances, but the the set shots missed by Amiss, Jackson, Voss, Treacy and Frederick were all regulation for them. And some of the snaps (e.g. Switta and O'Meara) that didn't even score should have been goals.

Check out the twitter account @AFLxScore that looks at the expected score based on the statistical averages from where each shot was taken. It is often pretty close between expected and actual score. For Freo our biggest discrepancy before the Sydney game was minus 13. And most games within a couple of points.

We were minus 40 over the four quarters. I'm not sure where this sits historically, but it would have to be close to a record. At 3/4 time we should have been 8 points in front instead of 44 points behind. We were 24 from an expected 60, and Sydney were 68 from an expected 52. That's just ridiculous and a statistical anomaly that will likely never be repeated.

Sydney definitely had some easier shots, but our shot difficulty was more than good enough to result in a close game, and possibly sneak out a close win. I am a massive critic of JL, but statistics support that goal kicking was indeed the main defining factor of the game.

 

[oldgoat]

If JL really believes it was all about the goalkicking then he's completely clueless. 10.1 to 1.10 looks like it on paper, but almost all of Sydney’s goals were easy shots, whereas almost all of ours were tough chances.

just wrong

 

[oldgoat]

You say almost all ours were tough chances, but the the set shots missed by Amiss, Jackson, Voss, Treacy and Frederick were all regulation for them. And some of the snaps (e.g. Switta and O'Meara) that didn't even score should have been goals.

Check out the twitter account @AFLxScore that looks at the expected score based on the statistical averages from where each shot was taken. It is often pretty close between expected and actual score. For Freo our biggest discrepancy before the Sydney game was minus 13. And most games within a couple of points.

We were minus 40 over the four quarters. I'm not sure where this sits historically, but it would have to be close to a record. At 3/4 time we should have been 8 points in front instead of 44 points behind. We were 24 from an expected 60, and Sydney were 68 from an expected 52. That's just ridiculous and a statistical anomaly that will likely never be repeated.

Sydney definitely had some easier shots, but our shot difficulty was more than good enough to result in a close game, and possibly sneak out a close win. I am a massive critic of JL, but statistics support that goal kicking was indeed the main defining factor of the game.

just right

 

[Yeti]

This feels like a replication of the Ross Lyon discussions around scoring.

 

[poshman]

This feels like a replication of the Ross Lyon discussions around scoring.

Hard not to be concerned isn’t it.. I am reminding myself that our talented bigs are very young. We shouldn’t expect their best for a couple of years yet.

 

[Rob]

You say almost all ours were tough chances, but the the set shots missed by Amiss, Jackson, Voss, Treacy and Frederick were all regulation for them. And some of the snaps (e.g. Switta and O'Meara) that didn't even score should have been goals.

Jackson's was from the boundary wasn't it? And from memory Treacy and Freddy (and the 2nd Voss set shot) missed well into the 2nd half when the game was over.

And like I said, i'm not saying we should have missed all of them - I probably would have expected us to be 4.7 or 5.6, but the fact remains they were much harder shots than what Sydney were getting. That's a game plan problem, it's not just about goalkicking.

 

[sumavich]

Sydney gave us no space too, that has to be acknowleged. The moment when we got the ball, turned around there was a Sydney player closing in. Very well drilled, and there is a reason they are one game clear top of the ladder. Aslo, their centimetre perfect 14m kicks were elite

 

[Polly]

You handball out of half back to generate the run then it has to be precision kicking through the middle. It gets the ball over the rolling zone and your forward line is much cleaner. We allowed the “pressure” Sydney applied by hand balling through the middle of the ground and disciplined teams will get back in numbers. Hand balling through the middle makes you reliant on midfielders kicking goals and unfortunately ours can’t kick over a jam tin.
Kicking through the middle requires half forwards to hit up and back repeatedly which we don’t seem to do. Roll straight off that hit up kick and the leading lanes should be open.
It is absolutely a game plan issue.

 

[dockshark]

just wrong

just right

I really think it’s more nuanced than this wrong/right positioning. It’s true we missed a number of highly gettable shots, but it’s also true that we are allowing ourselves to get pushed wide on entry against better teams and this happened last night as well. Sydney had more front on shots than us.

 

[james haish]

Not saying we shouldn't have done better than 1.10, other than Voss's set shot up until that point most of our shots at goal were either under direct physical pressure or from the boundary.
Compared to Sydney who had most of their shots directly in front or only a few metres out.

Whatever was going on, they were generating much easier chances than we were. That was the story of the game, it wasn't simply down to accurate kicks on goal. Unless it's the gameplan to pull goals out of our arse and win the game that way.

That O’Meara shot in the first when he sprayed it out of bounds should have been a goal. He was under some pressure and it wasn’t a gimme, but experienced players kick those. That set the tone for the rest of the game.

That kick was no harder than Lloyd’s a moment later.

 

[dockshark]

Sydney gave us no space too, that has to be acknowleged. The moment when we got the ball, turned around there was a Sydney player closing in. Very well drilled, and there is a reason they are one game clear top of the ladder. Aslo, their centimetre perfect 14m kicks were elite

Absolutely right, but we need to be able to develop methods for dealing with structural and man-on pressure that don’t lead to centreback turnovers and wide entries. This isn’t going to happen overnight, and patience is required, but I would love to see some signs that we are learning and I haven’t really seen that this year so far.

 

[MadMundy]

A lot of people talking in absolutes and using black and white thinking when the world isn't that simple unfortunately.

 

[Randomizor]

Hard not to be concerned isn’t it.. I am reminding myself that our talented bigs are very young. We shouldn’t expect their best for a couple of years yet.

We’ve been trying to get it right for 12 years now. It’s concerning that we haven’t figured out how to address it in that time.

 

[WilloTree]

I am talking more about our selection process in general. I would rather take a look at Simpson as sub and Delean as a crumber than have the same effort guys in each week. Will they perform better than who we have currently? I don't know... We do know what the current group provide and it is little when it comes to finishing around goal.

Given the picks we have, it would be good from a strategic pov to see if we think any of them have what it takes.

Sturt payed and didn't do much but got on the scoreboard. I would rather that than a lot of effort and nothing on the scoreboard on a regular basis.

Simpson played the last 2 games.



Delean is miles off.

Sturt won't be on the list in 12 months.

It's one thing to say 'why do we persist with guys like...' but when you look at the list, it's all we have, THere's literally nothing underneath. We are currently playing our best 6 forwards.

 

[WilloTree]

This feels like a replication of the Ross Lyon discussions around scoring.

It does a bit, but I think we can all see the differences are stark.

 

[poshman]

Simpson played the last 2 games.

View attachment 1987572

Delean is miles off.

Sturt won't be on the list in 12 months.

It's one thing to say 'why do we persist with guys like...' but when you look at the list, it's all we have, THere's literally nothing underneath. We are currently playing our best 6 forwards.

This seems like one of those times someone jumps to make a point without reading the post in full.

Go back and read the post. I asked if they would perform better than our current effort guys.. I also said it could be a strategic thing with our picks coming up to see who has what it takes.

So your response means what?

I will also say that what Simpson showed on debut was more than our other smalls.

 

[poshman]

We’ve been trying to get it right for 12 years now. It’s concerning that we haven’t figured out how to address it in that time.

Yes, and I am not sure thinking about it in a 12 year window makes sense or is helpful.

We have completely different players than we did in 2012. We have a new head coach and coaching staff. The club also appointed another defensive coach.

I will say that the handball game is daring and attacking and looks great when it works. I am not sure we have the players forward of the ball to make it work.

I can see why you are making the statement a 12 year observation though.

 

[SPEEDWAGON]

O meara should play forward and banfield further up the ground floating in

Worner could also play Aish role in the back and aish much better in Omeara role

Maybe have a look at walker forward or Wagner

 

[WilloTree]

This seems like one of those times someone jumps to make a point without reading the post in full.

Go back and read the post. I asked if they would perform better than our current effort guys.. I also said it could be a strategic thing with our picks coming up to see who has what it takes.

So your response means what?

I will also say that what Simpson showed on debut was more than our other smalls.

Yes. That is exactly the point I addressed. We HAVE seen if they would preform better, because we already know where they stand. In the cases of Simpson and Sturt, they have literally already played games this year.

So, to answer the question (again) Simpson was promising, Strurt is a bust and Delean is miles off on his Peel form.

Strategically, it's really clear what Freo needs to do in the off-season.

A) Upgrade one of the 1st round picks and St Kilda's 2nd into an early first rounder.
B) Pick 3 forwards in the 1st Round (and finish the rebuild).

 

[Dockeroo]

Strategically, it's really clear what Freo needs to do in the off-season.

A) Upgrade one of the 1st round picks and St Kilda's 2nd into an early first rounder.
B) Pick 3 forwards in the 1st Round (and finish the rebuild).

I’m leaning more towards this too now. The sheer lack of talent forward of the ball is alarming.

The risk is players like Serong and young reach 2027 free agency at their peak and we are still talking about the future and potential instead of actually contending and playing prelim finals, and winning 15 or 16 H&A games, to reassure those guys we are here for the long haul. They are impatient for success like any top talent is.
When it comes to forwards I think we age stuffed the rebuild a bit.
Thank god for the relative success of Treacy and Frederick at pick 60 and the rookie draft or we’d be ****ed altogether.
In summary - 4 picks in the top 25, all forwards would massively improve us in 3 years time.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

O meara should play forward and banfield further up the ground floating in

Worner could also play Aish role in the back and aish much better in Omeara role

Maybe have a look at walker forward or Wagner

O'Meara should be out of the side altogether which gives us the flexibility to use Worner and/or Wagner.

It's pretty clear the only reason he plays is because of the number next to his name that say games played and age/experience, and I guess his off-field training standards as per his leadership group status. And JL goes yep we're young, we need some of that, despite the fact that on gameday he offers nothing, and if he were a young kid showing this he wouldn't be near the team. And for anyone who claims he plays a role, what you want out of your role players are 1%er's and good defensive acumen and he has neither.
So yeah we got it wrong with the 4 year deal, no point investing in the sunk cost fallacy, we can improve the side without him.


Edit: In looking up JOM's stats I found the original article when we traded for him

O’Meara lands at Freo in final day of trade

Fremantle have secured midfielder Jaeger O'Meara in a trade with Hawthorn

www.fremantlefc.com.au

Walls mentions the reasons we went after him being the great game he played against us at Optus in 2022 (this is why it is dangerous basing anything off a single game), his leadership abilities and his prowess as a defensive mid - averaging 5 tackles per game. Well fastforward to 2024 he is averaging under 2 tackles per game, so the very thing we got him for is evaporated, I think that is clear enough indication for me that we must move on from him.


Gone way off topic here, mods feel free to move this wherever it's more relevant lol

 

[rgauci]

I’m leaning more towards this too now. The sheer lack of talent forward of the ball is alarming.

The risk is players like Serong and young reach 2027 free agency at their peak and we are still talking about the future and potential instead of actually contending and playing prelim finals, and winning 15 or 16 H&A games, to reassure those guys we are here for the long haul. They are impatient for success like any top talent is.
When it comes to forwards I think we age stuffed the rebuild a bit.
Thank god for the relative success of Treacy and Frederick at pick 60 and the rookie draft or we’d be ****ed altogether.
In summary - 4 picks in the top 25, all forwards would massively improve us in 3 years time.

Picks will take years to develop. Even some immediate hits like Pickett and Weightman aren’t amazing in their first year. It just sets the rebuild back further.

Teams often buy small forwards, Port - Rioli, Geelong - Stengle, Collingwood - I.Hill, Schultz, GWS - Bedford, Carlton - J.Martin, Adelaide - Rankine, Brisbane - McCarthy.

Some teams haven’t like Gold Coast and Sydney, but no surprise these have some of the most fruitful academies in the afl.

Sometimes drafting them can be hit and miss, top 5 pick “the wizard” hasn’t really hit his straps at the Hawks, though I guess had a reasonable game on the weekend. There are many small forward busts. Look at the traded players, many were years into their career with patchy form. Even some of the trades are bust.

Personally I’d chase Coniglio, maybe JOM can leverage one good thing. Him replacing Switta would be a god send. Baker and Zurhaar the other two. I’d draft a goal sneak and cross my fingers.

 

[blue shark]

I’m leaning more towards this too now. The sheer lack of talent forward of the ball is alarming.

The risk is players like Serong and young reach 2027 free agency at their peak and we are still talking about the future and potential instead of actually contending and playing prelim finals, and winning 15 or 16 H&A games, to reassure those guys we are here for the long haul. They are impatient for success like any top talent is.
When it comes to forwards I think we age stuffed the rebuild a bit.
Thank god for the relative success of Treacy and Frederick at pick 60 and the rookie draft or we’d be ****ed altogether.
In summary - 4 picks in the top 25, all forwards would massively improve us in 3 years time.

If we go to the draft then those players won’t help in 2025?

I’m leaning more towards this too now. The sheer lack of talent forward of the ball is alarming.

The risk is players like Serong and young reach 2027 free agency at their peak and we are still talking about the future and potential instead of actually contending and playing prelim finals, and winning 15 or 16 H&A games, to reassure those guys we are here for the long haul. They are impatient for success like any top talent is.
When it comes to forwards I think we age stuffed the rebuild a bit.
Thank god for the relative success of Treacy and Frederick at pick 60 and the rookie draft or we’d be ****ed altogether.
In summary - 4 picks in the top 25, all forwards would massively improve us in 3 years time.

The issue is it is always about how good the future looks. Add this player or that type.
This is half of the problem and we’ve seen it before. Are we elite in coaches and
development?
Does the gameplan match what is on the list. Or are we innovative enough.
Unfortunately it all starts with management, and at some point it has to be
addressed.
We haven’t fixed our flaws or even acknowledged them, rather concentrate on
what we want to do. Which is fine when we get games on our terms.
Good teams find a way to win the close games, or can change styles to come
from behind.
We need a preseason when you can see real differences and change.
Body shapes, game styles, tackling, instead after 4 years we are still seeing
the same plays that even the opposition set up for.

 

[Dockeroo]

Picks will take years to develop. Even some immediate hits like Pickett and Weightman aren’t amazing in their first year. It just sets the rebuild back further.

Teams often buy small forwards, Port - Rioli, Geelong - Stengle, Collingwood - I.Hill, Schultz, GWS - Bedford, Carlton - J.Martin, Adelaide - Rankine, Brisbane - McCarthy.

Some teams haven’t like Gold Coast and Sydney, but no surprise these have some of the most fruitful academies in the afl.

Sometimes drafting them can be hit and miss, top 5 pick “the wizard” hasn’t really hit his straps at the Hawks, though I guess had a reasonable game on the weekend. There are many small forward busts. Look at the traded players, many were years into their career with patchy form. Even some of the trades are bust.

Personally I’d chase Coniglio, maybe JOM can leverage one good thing. Him replacing Switta would be a god send. Baker and Zurhaar the other two. I’d draft a goal sneak and cross my fingers.

Where are these players we can buy? I’m all for it if they are available. But they don’t seem to be apart from Liam Baker and even he wants to join WCE according to Ralph.
Zurharr? Yeah I suppose if he can be got for free. I’m doubtful on him though I must say…
GWS is one place we might be able to tempt a decent small out of?
We are up against the old freo problem that elite talent mainly comes here via the draft. At least one first rounder has to be spent on a forward this year. Ideally a top 10 pick

 

[Quazar2]

Where are these players we can buy? I’m all for it if they are available. But they don’t seem to be apart from Liam Baker and even he wants to join WCE according to Ralph.
Zurharr? Yeah I suppose if he can be got for free. I’m doubtful on him though I must say…
GWS is one place we might be able to tempt a decent small out of?
We are up against the old freo problem that elite talent mainly comes here via the draft. At least one first rounder has to be spent on a forward this year. Ideally a top 10 pick

I hear what you're saying, both arguments actually with rgauci. The problem is the club is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand it's good we're a 'young' team, building a positive-looking future with some gun drafts, but on the other....how patient do we have to be..?! How soon is now to quote a Smiths song? It's already 2024, into J-Lo's 5th year and the rebuild should be over. You draft 3 'gun' forwards, that's ace....very nice, about time! But in 3/4 years time....?!

It just keeps pushing the 'competing for Premierships' timeline back...or forwards. Or maybe nowhere, just no man's land. It's always good to talk the talk, but can you walk the walk?! Stop trying to impress your fans with talk of an exciting future that keeps disappearing each year over the horizon when we can't contend. How can it realistically be 2024 and we still have a dysfunctional forward line, we've been discussing this problem forever!!! If this rebuild fails, the club fails and it might be catastrophic. A lot rides on it.

It's a bit scary. Are people prepared to 'wait' until.....when?! 2025? 2026, 2027?! 2028..?!?!?!

I'm not so sure, people are already bemoaning the 30-year draught, it's not easy to win the damn thing but we keep that revolving door of experienced players going and replacing them with more 'top end' draft picks. Some players might ultimately be replaceable - your Henrys, Logues, Tuckers and Lobbs, and even Acres and Schultz (probably the most required out of that bunch), but they're also players that have been in the system, developed and built chemistry and know-how with the guys that still remain here. Evidently there's enough quality in the defenders and mids right now, but stark and frighteningly barren up forward for the most part. Clearly the Treacy/Jackson/Amiss trio could be awesome propositions, but reality is, they're just getting going. Darcy (not through deliberate fault) is a problem right now, because his injuries are disrupting our cohesiveness and certainly our ability to use the Triple J threat in attack. Dogga, doing heaps of ruck work, looks burnt out to me, sadly. Our smalls conundrum is the area that's really fallible and weak right now.

Sometimes it feels like we're stuck in a kind of quasi-masochistic cycle where the club just gets sporadically excited by shiny new draft toys. That either don't make it, can't make it...or make it in 4 years time!! Look at that 2017 draft haul of the likes of Scott Jones, Tom North, Mitch Crowden and Switta, I mean blink and you miss most of them, gone in the blink of an eye. You sort of think what was the point in cutting so deep to replace 'mediocre talent' with more mediocre talent...?!?! Our drafting since then has been mostly spot on but you can't keep drafting LOTS forever, even with top 20 picks. At some point we need to add that polish and power, Baker and Warner would instantly rocket us into top 4 calculations. Clearly it's a pipedream right now, but that's where I'd be leaning more towards if I were the club. I don't get to decide though...

I don't know, I don't feel good about it. I think we should be trading in talent (which goes back to your point....who?!). Freo is not a destination club compared to the other 'big' clubs, so it's not easy to cherry pick out whoever you please - even if they're a WA born player or want to return home. It was weird we didn't try and trade in last year but we didn't have much currency because of the Jackson trade. I guess we could have used Port's first and our future first to get someone, but we didn't feel it needed to be done or couldn't find the right suitors. It's a tough gig this AFL caper, especially for a minnow like the Dockers.

I respect the club wants to project ambition and be 'bold', but this strategy and certain statements could backfire and leave them with some stinky egg on their face. I guess the next dozen or so weeks will give us a better indication on if we're closer to contending (I personally doubt it for 2024), let's hope something positive transpires though, especially after the hurt of the past few days.