KA's Dream Team bets

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Butler said:
Hartlett under 85.5 (1U) Luxbet

Averages 79 and has gone under this line 7 out of the last 8 games (although he did go close last week). Is also a good chance to get the Macaffer tag.

Westhoff under 86.5 (2U) Luxbet

Averages just 61 against Collingwood. In hindsight, I would have only placed 1 unit on this bet but rushed it a bit with Luxbets quick market moves. Still reasonably confident he will go under.
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On board probably got shit odds though
 
Have jumped on the Fyfe over Selwood, Kelly @2.70 bet for 2U.

Selwood will get Crowley making it Kelly v Fyfe and I'm happy to take Fyfe in that one.

Also added:

Sylvia over Cooney, Libba @2.55 (1U) Sportingbet

New coach looks to mean more midfield time for Sylvia. Played purely as a midfielder last week and scored 114. Libba just doesn't score nearly as well with Boyd in the team and Cooney has only gone over 100 twice this year.

Dangerfield over 104.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet

He goes large when he doesn't have a good tagger on him and I'm expecting the same today.
 
You should also look at the Fyfe/Barlow correlation

Correlation is extremely strong one always scores 110+ or big whilst that usually happens when the other scores a 80-90.

Its mainly because Fyfe started onball earlier in the year whilst barlow had roles off halfback, half forward and the wing but that has now changed and Fyfe is more half forward again.

Im not sure if you were the one I PMed about it earlier when talking about trades Butler.

I reckon Danger and Gaz may well go H2H today
 

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Hmm not sure, can't remember talking about it. Part of me liking that bet was that he would be spending a lot more time on ball though.

I don't think we will see much H2H between Danger and Ablett. Would love it to happen for my DT but I believe VB has already come out and said he is looking to turn around his form up against Ablett this week. I think Wright (sub) might come on and go to Ablett for the last quarter if it's close.

I thought about taking Dangerfield in group 1 against Ablett, Douglas and Thompson just because he is paying 4.50 but think I will stay away. Thompson has a very good record at Metricon, Douglas has been excellent this year and Ablett is Ablett even with the tag.
 
Butler said:
I thought about taking Dangerfield in group 1 against Ablett, Douglas and Thompson just because he is paying 4.50 but think I will stay away. Thompson has a very good record at Metricon, Douglas has been excellent this year and Ablett is Ablett even with the tag.
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Should have backed myself with that one.

Danger gets over his line even with busted ribs :thumbsu:
 
Butler said:
Hmm not sure, can't remember talking about it. Part of me liking that bet was that he would be spending a lot more time on ball though.

I don't think we will see much H2H between Danger and Ablett. Would love it to happen for my DT but I believe VB has already come out and said he is looking to turn around his form up against Ablett this week. I think Wright (sub) might come on and go to Ablett for the last quarter if it's close.

I thought about taking Dangerfield in group 1 against Ablett, Douglas and Thompson just because he is paying 4.50 but think I will stay away. Thompson has a very good record at Metricon, Douglas has been excellent this year and Ablett is Ablett even with the tag.
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It may have been someone else, anyway the correlation is huge for the reasons given.

Yeh so did i, oh well i loaded up on him anyway to go 106.5 over and that sure happened my second biggest bet.

And ive just been nosed out by my huge value bet in harbrow over broughton/stanley.
 
Those last 2 were the ones i was looking at but selwood into 1.66. Hard with the fyfe one id prefer to put more on at 2.70 vs Kelly really rather then that bet.

Why so confident on sylvia? over 92.5 could well get the tag but i guess you think more midfield time
 
Keystone agony said:
Why so confident on sylvia? over 92.5 could well get the tag but i guess you think more midfield time
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I think Jones will get the tag but there is a chance that Boyd will go to Jones and Lower to Sylvia but I wouldn't think that they would go that negative against Melbourne.

I don't think anyone can doubt Sylvias scoring potential but he looks lazy at times and spends large chunks as a forward. Last week he looked hungry and played really well and I think he will have another good game tonight.

At one stage it was looking like I was going to lose all my DT bets in that last game but I ended up making money despite my big bet on Swan and Hartlett and Westhoff bets losing.
 
From being +11.51 after the first 3 games i dropped back a bit with -1.-1 on Harteltt and Westhoff. -4 on Fyfe bets (surprised but dockers were mauled)

However my value bet of Terlich paid off i actually went 2U on this and 1U on Minson so from this i found a positive 3.07 units with quite ease

Round 14 +8.58 Units

Sorry im sturggling to be able to do sunday games.
 

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4.5U Gary Ablett under 125.5 $1.85

Why? Raines is going to play and hes going to tag Ablett. Hes tagged Ablett the last 5 encounters. So how does Garry go against Raines? Not that great. In the last 5 games vs Raines Gaz has only ever scored above 110 once, in the other 4 hes has 105, 84, 106 and 97. So that line is huge considering which is why ive backed it in so hard. Another reason, the game is at the Gabba according to my research done for 2012 the avg scored at the Gabba in any given game was just 3009. Compare that to other places Gaz has played Metricon 3071, Etihad 3092, MCG 3108. So per the 44 players its about 2.5 points less scoring per player. Another reason not as strong is that he doesnt score well with a tag in dry conditions as compared to wet conditions, the tag becomes irrelevant in wet conditions pretty much for Gaz and guess what? its gonna be dry. Im predicting a 90-110 score.

1U A.Walker over 78.5 $1.87

This year Walker is avg 83.8 so its already above his avg. To add further to that hes played one game forward this year which was in fact against the pies - i doubt that will happen again. He only scored 64 so take that game out hes scored above 78.5 every game bar 3 and has scored very well against the swans and sydney of late. The pies dont do forward tags on defenders.

1U Josh Thomas over Kade Simpson $2.25
I really see value here. Everyone has jumped on Simpson this year without looking past these guys names. Josh Thomas has scored over 93 in 4 of his last 6 games. Simpson is avg 77 this year and although he has been in better form last 5 games (avg 90.2) he has struggled against the pies in the past with a score earlier this year of just 71 and when in much better form last year avg 93 for the year just 46 and 80. Add to that midfielder like Murphy coming back into the side i think that can only mean less time. Carlton will target Swan, Pendles, Sidebottom, Ball players so i expect him to have a fair bit of space if he isnt the starting sub which would be void anyway.

Purely chaseing what i see as value here. Simpson 90.2 last 5. Thomas last 4 avg 94.5. Should be far closer then $2.10 odds.

1U on H.Shaw under 80.5 $2.05
Expect Armfield to go to him has been doing jobs all year to success.

4U on Moloney over Rockliff $2.25
Ripping value and Rockliff has been playing forward past few weeks whilst Moloney has been killing it in the midfield. GC do not tag and i expect him to go well against some of the young kids maybe H2H with prestia similar types. I expect rocky to continue playing forward.

1U on Hanley over (Stanley and Harbrow) $2.80
Not that confident about this but im thinking the lions will win i dont think he will get tagged due to GC not tagging and i expect him to be a fair chance to resume his role off a wing/HBF. Its purely chaseing value here.

2U on Henderson over M.Wright and Darling $2.75
Henderson has scored very well in his new role in defence with a 87 vs Sydney when they got smacked and 105 last week vs GC. Darling only scores well against weak oppo rutten, talia are strong oppo for him. M.Wright is the worry but hes not getting much of a big role through the middle with avg scores of 60-70's of late.

1U on Dangerfield over (Douglas and Masten) $2.35
Without Shuey, Kerr, S.Selwood i think Masten becomes their number one play maker and should be a solid chance for some sort of tag. NVB i expect will go to him. Priddis is the only other option and after the way he played last week could be a fair chance for the tag. I still think Danger will get this one eagles have no one that can go with him, Hutchings, Sheppard i expect to be given the roles.
 
Thought I'd chuck this in here as it seems the best spot. Armfield has been used as a forward tagger the last three weeks. His target this week would be Heath Shaw right? Considering he is historically quite useless under a tag if someone can confirm him as the most likely target he'd be a great unders bet.

EDIT: Although I see they chose to tag Maxwell in the game earlier this season. Hmmm...
 
d3ft said:
Thought I'd chuck this in here as it seems the best spot. Armfield has been used as a forward tagger the last three weeks. His target this week would be Heath Shaw right? Considering he is historically quite useless under a tag if someone can confirm him as the most likely target he'd be a great unders bet.

EDIT: Although I see they chose to tag Maxwell in the game earlier this season. Hmmm...
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Malthouse will send Armfield to Shaw, surely.

I took Shaw at under 80.5 @2.10 for 2U this morning. I can see Carlton tagging Swan, Pendlebury and Swan tonight.

Don't really like too many other bets tonight. Will have a closer look when I get home this arvo.
 
Keystone agony said:
Where is the line on H.Shaw? Butler

Yeh could well be i reckon sidebottom, shaw, pendles
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Luxbet.

Yep was thinking Curnow to either Swan or Sidebottom. Sidey isn't in that great of form but Malthouse would rate him highly and he does suit the Curnow tag.

It will be interesting to see who Macaffer goes to. I would think probably Judd with Murphy coming back from injury.
 
Im close to getting on swan under 118.5

Easy to see that bucks still thinks he can go forward and help out cloke. His 130x3 before this game does sort of turn me against it as he does like to respond big sometimes but against carlton its tough and hes a 50/50 chance with sidebottom to get the tag anyway.

118.5 is a big line to have, i dont think his avg is close to that.

Pendles also probably slightly over on 111.5 i think hell probably get cachia or carrazzo both in good tagging form (carrazzo) a good tagger.

One of Murphy or Judd should be targetted or one of those groups if we find out whos tagging who before the game.
 
Shaw under 80.5 @2.05 (2U) Luxbet
Sidebottom under 94.5 @1.95 (1U) Betstar

Armfield named as sub is bad news for my Shaw bet... Still a chance of someone else going to Shaw though. I don't see why Malthouse would tag Hanley, McVeigh, Malceski etc and then leave Shaw run free.

Sidebottom bet is partly due to him possibly getting tagged and partly because of his poor form of late.
 
Yep i like them was gonna go sidebottom.

I think Carrazzo may play a half forward tag instead of armfield, curnow go to a outside type and cachia doing his great jobs on pendlebury as inside types

Dont think carratz has the tank just yet to go with pendles all the way
 
Im gonna have to stop doing your bets butler ha costing m. Shaw was only on 46 at 3QT but ended up with almost 100 or there abouts.

Josh Thomas to beat Kade Simpson +1.25U
Walker over 78.5 +.87U
H.Shaw under 80.5 -1U

= +1.12U night

Happy with that.

2U Dion Prestia under 99.5 (With ablett out i expect a raines tag)
 
Butler said:
Couldn't believe it ay. Shaw needed 35 points in the last quarter to get over that line and he scores 55.. Sidey bet was never in doubt and Curnow did run with him so we got that part right.

At least I had Swan as captain in my team :thumbsu:
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I bet you had Gaz as captain and hes really your vice id be very surprised if you went swan straight out unless last week accidently carried onto this week with quick changes due to ablett info?
 
Keystone agony said:
I bet you had Gaz as captain and hes really your vice id be very surprised if you went swan straight out unless last week accidently carried onto this week with quick changes due to ablett info?
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Nope selected Swan once I heard Ablett was out. Traded in O'Keefe but I'm not big on putting the C on players just because they are up against poor opposition. Has burnt me a couple of times. Barlow was another option but don't know how sore the jaw is.

In the end I was fairly confident he wouldn't get tagged and he generally does bounce back well. I think people overplayed him playing as a forward last week. He was having a bad game in the middle and couldn't get near it so was moved forward which is fair enough.

He has the highest scoring potential in my team with Ablett out and the highest average. His record against Carlton is fairly good. Not huge scores but consistent.

At the time I found out Ablett was out I was still undecided on my captain. Kept changing between Ablett and Swan. Ablett was safer but Swan was far more unique as C. Ablett out gave more people Swan's score so probably worked out worse.
 

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