KA's Dream Team bets

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Wells was the only bet I was half keen on for these first two games from Luxbet. Avoided it because I'm not sure if they will let him run free.

Stokes over 92.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet

No SJ again so plenty of time in the middle available for him. Has gone over this line in 7 out of his last 8 games.

Terlich over Watts, Frawley @2.50 (1U) Sportingbet

I've been enjoying these Melbourne trio bets. Frawley fell just short last week with Watts having a blinder but I wasn't far off with Frawley scoring 91. This week I'm going with Terlich. Watts should be shut down against Sydney up forward which leaves it between Frawley and Terlich.

Terlich is being used a lot to come out of defence and looks to have built a lot of confidence at AFL level. Has scored 100 and 112 in his last two games (wish I didn't trade him out). Frawley will most likely have his hands full with Tippett.

Rich over 79.5 @1.72 (1U) Luxbet

Very low line for a player of his quality. Should avoid the tag and cover this comfortably. Could also see more midfield time with Black out.

Rockliff over Rich, Zorko, Swallow @2.75 (1U) Luxbet

This bet relies a lot on Rockliff going back into the middle to fill the gap that Black has left this week. It's between him and Rich in this group imo and the winner will be the one that moves into the middle.

If Rich is the one that plays more midfield time then it's good for my Hanley and Rich bets.

Hanley over 84.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet

Was finally sent back last week and despite a quite finish, showed promise of returning to his scoring best. Averages 99 against GC and scored 108 against them last time they met.
 

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Naitanui over Wright, Gaff, Jacobs @4.50 (1U) Luxbet

Value bet here. Wet weather suits Naitanui over Jacobs who has been horrible this year anyway. Gaff is a good chance to get tagged and Wright will either tag or sit forward.

Stokes over Enright, Franklin and Lewis @2.50 (1U) Luxbet

As I posted earlier, plenty of midfield time for Stokes with SJ out and has been consistent of late. Franklin having a bad year and doesn't score well against Geelong. Lewis is very hit and miss and Enright averages just 56 against Hawthorn.
 
5.82U up not bad considering my biggest bet 4U on moloney was a loss due to injury. lets hope boak over 90.5, hartlett over dempsey and co. Westhoff over ryder. fyfe over 88.5. Im not sure how ill go with sunday bets ill be targetting mcevoy unders, z.clarke unders, NDS unders. sandiland unders.
 

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Results
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)

Total= (+35.98 units)


Just to let people know on my results overall since ive started.

So for those that bet $50 units you'd be about 1800 happier if you've secretly followed me in the past 6 weeks, let there be many more happy winnings to come
 
What you thinking for this friday night Butler

Im expecting NVB to go to Pendles and in the past 2 weeks hes done pretty well on guys like Gaff and Gary Ablett, hes got a huge tank as does Pendles so he could prevent him scoring to a degree. However Sando did choose to let Lids run free not long ago which scares me a little surely he wont do that again here.

Or could he go to swan?

Other then that its hard to see much else. Macaffer hasnt really been tagging of late however is Dangerfield to risky to leave without a tag? Macaffer hasnt even been doing that great a job of late either.

With the crows lack of tall forwards will Reid go forward from the start, how does his scoring compare to down back?

Look at the rucks ect
 
Butler said:
Have to drive up North for work this Sat/Sun so might have a bit of a quieter weekend with my bets depending on reception.

Just had a brief look at the games this week and I'm keen to see the player lines for Montagna, SJ, Rockliff and Cotchin.
Click to expand...

I like this thinking, if im on the same page

Montagna Unders
SJ overs
Rockliff overs
Cotchin (im unsure) Stanley tag? surely goes to lids - Overs?

Also Marc murphy although i dont think he will be as high due to his last weeks performance maybe at 91.5 or something

Id also say be wary of the sydney players. GWS are an easy team as a whole to score against however like Carlton they are putting on 3 very good tags every game. Guys like Treloard, Shiel, Palmer, Townsend all can do a decent job, so dont get carried away with them.
 
Round 16 Bets

Marc Murphy Under 99.5 (IAS) 2.2U @1.85

Got a Geary tag last time they played i expect either Jones/Geary/Murdoch tag as they succeeded with it and won. Saints are going far better then ppl are giving credit for, however in the last 5 weeks they have given up the most scoring of any side

Tom Mitchell over 95.5 (IAS) 2.2U @1.85

Hes avg 103.5 and is versing GWS he will love it against the kids and feel he has something to prove, also probably expect the swans to manage some more of their elder midfield stars (Rok, Jack, Mcveigh, JPK ect). He should get plenty of time through the guts.

Dangerfield over ST and Sidebottom 1U $2.65
Clearly the best DTer of the lot on the MCG Collingwood didn't bother tagging gibbs, murphy or judd last week and Caff isn't in great form and playing a forward role more now. Wingard, N.Jones and Griffen have all got on top of him of late. I see some good value here, sideys hardly in ripping form.

Dangerfield over 94.5 $1.85 2U
Hes been clearing this line quite often of late. As I said don't expect a hard tag and even then I think he could break it. May go H2H with swan or Ball.

Sylvia to beat Garland/Mackie 1U $2.85
Really just see this as a massive value bet. Playing alot more midfield under neil craig and in his past 5 is avg 97, past 8 93.22. Low score of 78 in this time. All 3 are in good form. Mackie probably gets more attention without enright aswell.

2U T.Cloke under 94.5 $1.87
Talia and Rutten are both very good backs i suspect Rutten to do a pretty decent job on him tonight. 95 is a big score to get.

2U Matthew Wright under 75.5 $1.87
Hasnt got close last 4 could be a sub, is in poor form and the crows will lose

2U Sam Jacobs over 80.5 $1.87
Has scored 99 and 96 when Mckernan hasnt played

1U Sam jacobs to beat Sloane, Blair, Wright $3.25
Read above

1U Pendlebury Under 116.5 $1.72
Expected NVB tag, if not he will probably clear that but surely he gets a tag

1U Jack Grimes to beat N.Jones/Harry T $3.00
Played as a pure wingman last week, hes still fresh although 2nd up might be a slight struggle. Scored well last week i expect him to beat N.Jones who would be likely for a T.Hunt tag. Its value at 3s

2U Brent Harvey under 93.5 $1.87
I suspect the raines tag

2U Montagna under 101.5 $1.87
Hopefully a Curnow/Armfield/Cachia/Carrazzo tag

2U Judd over NDS $1.72
Maybe a tag for both, judds in good form though and i reckon NDS gets a usual hard tag. They tried to get to him vs Carlton last time and him getting of the leash hurt

2U Harbrow over T.Mckenzie $1.90
Teams are now targetting Mckenzie because of that kick and cannon, only scored 63 and 79 in last 2. Harbrow has gone 106, 91, 99, 97 last 4 at 98.25

2U Swan over Danger/Pendles/Douglas $2.15
Swan should play midfield and is on the MCG against Adelaide who have had some big scores against through the mids.

Pendles - NVB
Danger - I expect 95-110 from Danger however wont be enough and always that Macaffer concern
Douglas - Gone back to his usual ways avg 91 (Past 3 weeks) vs avg oppo. He funnily enough is my major worry though. If ST is a late out possible then Douglas plays more onball time.

2U Kane Lucas over Kade Simpson H2H $2.1
Lucas in ripping form and Simpsons going just okay he will have to man up on some small forwards and pay them respect for the blues. Has been playing HBF, K.Lucas should have a field day at ES to a degree against one of the easiest scoring sides in Saints.

I hope i dont jinx myself but im really confident in all the above bets. More to come with Luxbet and the final 3 games of the round for centrebet. But if you bet with me youll only end up in the positives for this week.
 
Yep those and Cotchin overs if his line is around 90 like it has been lately. Has been finding form even though it hasn't really been translating to his DT scores. Think that can change this weekend. People keep bringing up that he is carrying a knee injury but I think that's BS. He has been moving fine and last had his knee strapped 3 weeks ago. Just looks like he has been managed.

He is the captain and will be once again trying to drag his team over GC. He also averages 127.5 against them.

I have also gone with that Murphy bet on Sportsbet for 2U. Not confident on it but that's because he has cost me a fair bit this year and is probably my most hated DTer. Geary smashed him last time around and should do so again. The only doubt I have is that Murphys form last week didn't really warrant a tag.
 
Keystone agony said:
Round 16 Bets
Dangerfield over 94.5 $1.85 2U
Hes been clearing this line quite often of late. As I said don't expect a hard tag and even then I think he could break it. May go H2H with swan or Ball.
Click to expand...

Where's the Dangerflaps market? Can't see it anywhere... although Lux has just put up a line of 104.5 so it probably doesn't matter any more
 
I'm not really one for disposals bets, but Treloar > 23.5 is too good to refuse. Has been over this 9/13 games this year (including 7 out of the last 8) and cleared it in both of his games against the Swans - he was even under a tag in one of them.

I do have a tendency to jinx bets by posting them so keep that in mind.
 

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