Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
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The draft reaches of the 2020 AFL Draft:
Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac
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Knightmare - I enjoyed reading your analysis on ESPN. Pity the sheep mentality of too many reporters is to think high marks for bells and whistles without thinking more about it.
As an Eagle fan, I would would support the A rating especially considering we added Trew as a rookie. We restocked our midfield (which was bare) with some genuine midfield potential, brought in 2 under 25 youngish talents who are close to best 22 and kept upgraded our 2021 picks (liking having our R1 and 2 x R2 in next year).
Thanks for sharing your insights. Thanks also for remaining an independent thinker.
As an Eagle fan, I would would support the A rating especially considering we added Trew as a rookie. We restocked our midfield (which was bare) with some genuine midfield potential, brought in 2 under 25 youngish talents who are close to best 22 and kept upgraded our 2021 picks (liking having our R1 and 2 x R2 in next year).
Thanks for sharing your insights. Thanks also for remaining an independent thinker.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
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I can't say I've read any other draft reviews as a point of comparison to see how contrasting or otherwise other reviews are, but mine are always pretty straightforward as I'll rate teams based on my power rankings and what I feel they should each be looking to do. I don't know how others do it, but I don't see why anyone would if they follow the draft have any other methodology for reviewing a draft.
What I notice with West Coast every year, and I'm dirty I forgot about it when producing my phantom draft, is that West Coast like taking guys who as underagers had good years and don't mind if they don't have great draft years. It happens just about every year.
Edwards is one of those, Trew is another.
Trew does represent relative value as a rookie and is someone I viewed as a top-50 quality prospect. Certainly has the performances on the board and is someone where if you accept him for him as that ball winner, tackler and distributor by hand without expecting much else from him, he's fine. West Coast need young midfielders, and I mentioned Trew along with Ginnivan for Collingwood as the two rookie selections that impressed me most.
Also in a West Coast context, Winder is one to get excited about. He's a talent and in my view with a few years can really be developed into something. His ceiling is very high for someone picked so late. Really surprising to me he lasted as long as he did. That's what made West Coast's national draft such a strong one for me. With Edwards late draft also relatively fine, though someone more-so as a rookie I'd say is suitable if he addresses a need, but he's no hack and has the performances on the board to his credit.
Great work knightmare this year.Happy with what tigers did for 2021, 2 first rounds , 2 second rounds and 2 third rounds to can set us up for a mini rebuild.
Hoping we invite a key tall for our last 2 rookie spots to train with us like Baldwin,Callow or Kolar.I like Kolar big upside with him.
On Sampson Ryan looks a big unit nice grab, skills good and good below his knees I think just needs work on endurance.Got a feeling they may have Coleman Jones ear marked to play forward.
Hoping we invite a key tall for our last 2 rookie spots to train with us like Baldwin,Callow or Kolar.I like Kolar big upside with him.
On Sampson Ryan looks a big unit nice grab, skills good and good below his knees I think just needs work on endurance.Got a feeling they may have Coleman Jones ear marked to play forward.
Three midfielders and a small forward in reality, pretty close.
You were right that they didn't take a KPP thick.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
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Ryan is an interesting pick. His rate of improvement is what for me makes him relevant as a prospect. A Coleman-Jones can play either key forward or ruck. I'd feel confident playing Callum in either spot. But a blended role a think would suit him well.
Baldwin/Callow/Kolar are all guys who were considered in this draft. They're guys to keep watching.
That comes about due to sheer weight of numbers with 60% on average drafted from Vic , you are always going to get more numbers heading home. What would be interesting is s relative % breakdown for return to home state by draftees.
Crows benefited thid year with Hately returning home. Every year we see players return after completing initial contracts , clubs need to do their due diligence to figure out how much of a risk it is with a potential draftee and if they are prepared to take on that risk
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None of Rowell, Anderson, Phillips or Bianco were playing when Conor Stone had his five goal game. Might be an idea to go back over your notes from when you watched these games
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BEaston
Hungry
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exactly, its swings and roundabouts. thats why im not sure why so many of you are sookingExcellent, I look forward to Jason Horne, Arlo Draper and Matt Roberts to say the same thing next year and end up being drafted by SA clubs
- Aug 21, 2016
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We're just paranoid that if/when we get to benefit from this, the ∀FL will come down on us like a ton of bricks. Anyway, let's end this.
[/onsoapbox]
KM not sure if you would have this info or have access to it but would be really interesting to know what percentage of players are drafted from victoria in normal years and what the percentage was in 2020. was there a significant amount less this year
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
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None of Rowell, Anderson, Phillips or Bianco were playing when Conor Stone had his five goal game. Might be an idea to go back over your notes from when you watched these games
You're right actually. u18 champs. Had Phillips, Reef etc dominating in their place.
So then that modifies that to hasn't dominated against good competition.
You think cox is a reach at 8 but you had callow inside your top 20
That's why I spoke about there being value late and that Callow and Baldwin are the KPP targets I'd look at late/rookie if I need to go for a tall. No need to take a Cox or Reid top-10 when a Callow who is certainly the more immediate player, and the player I slightly prefer long term also can be had and hasn't attracted strong interest.
If I'm an Essendon, I'm taking the best non KPPs at 8-10 and taking a Callow late, and a Baldwin if I really wanted another.
I'd have to go through them all to tell you exactly.
Probably the quickest trick would be going to wikipedia into the specific draft year. 'Control F': "NAB League" and you should see how many come up, then compare that to the number of players taken.
For %. It's simply add up how many taken in the national draft. How many NAB League. Then NAB League divided by total number of national draft selections. Then you should have your number. Or if you want all of Victoria, you can add in VFL. And you can always eliminate from the numbers those recycled types where AFL is listed next to their names. So you can always modify the calculation depending on how you want to conduct it.
My instinct is that it should work out to around half though most years. Would be interested to know the numbers and if it's over/under and by how much each year.
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31 out of 59 in the National Draft this year drafted from Victoria. Believe they’re all from the NAB League.
By my count, only 10 U18’s taken in the rookie draft, and only 2 from Vic/NAB League.
Original Clubs for All AFL/VFL Drafted Players - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
So roughly 50% from Victoria which looks to be the usual , I would have thought it would have been less this year but the recruiters stuck to their 19' rankings
Knightmare
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- Sep 22, 2010
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Will be interesting to see at what stage/time those spots will get filled. I imagine they would get filled eventually. Collingwood's salary cap should allow for that to happen.
A Jackson Callow or Kaine Baldwin are two who would make sense as considerations/for tracking as key position players.
Maybe a mature ager with that other spot given the better crumbers have been drafted from this year's draft class.
- Aug 21, 2016
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So you think it would be a good idea to pass on highly rated KPP's to get average ones in the rookie draft.... rightio
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
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I don't rate Cox or Reid highly.
Could they be the next James Stewart and Lachlan Keeffe respectively?
It's hard to conclude they'll become stars as we haven't seen their 2020 seasons to know their rate of improvement, to calculate that into their probability of a career or to become high level best 22 players. They're picks based on speculation. It's not playing the odds.
I'd be waiting until I can secure a KPP who represents clear best available value at a pick rather than players I rate at 20 and in the 20s respectively, when we're talking about top-10 picks.
Essendon of course will have their own opinions, but I don't view it as sound process without 2020 games as supporting evidence.
Knightmare...have you done a best of the rest list for the guys who did not get drafted ?
I would say his power rankings minus those who were drafted - there would be a few there, with Callow leading the way
kickthething
Brownlow Medallist
There would be a few more outside of that as well. Particularly if you look at Aug - Dec DOB who turn 19 next year, some in there will come through for sure.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
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Direct from my AFL Tier List video:
Callow (20), Sam Fisher (37), Zavier Maher (39), Jackson Callow (40), Kaine Baldwin (41). Logan Young (58), Xavier Robbins (62).
Players of interest I want to watch in 2021 and haven't seen so much as footage of but look forward to seeing: Jai Newcombe and Corey Preston. Newcombe in particular sounded draftable from those reviews I've heard, so he's someone I really hope to see next year in some capacity.
Sounds the most logical scenario Knightmare. Do you think it would be to much of a risk to use both of our remaining rookie spots on both Callow and Baldwin?.
We would have 3 developing key positional players including McMahon which we havent had for a long time or is that to much of a risk?
Just to confirm Knigjtmare if i am not mistaken we can fill our 2 remaining rookie spots after January tbe 6th? , but when does this period end?
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