Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[LittleG]

Hi Knightmare, I've enjoyed your analysis over the years and do rate your opinions.

I'm quite interested to hear your take on Collingwoods list management and how the recruiting team should approach the next 2 years. I'm not here to pot Collingwood, I'm genuinely interested to see how the next 2 years play out. So I'd like to put up a couple of hypotheticals to see what you think.

In this years draft, if a bid for McInness comes after the Pies 1st two picks, who do you see them taking with those picks? And given that 13 players have now departed the club, how do you see the make up numbers wise going into next year? Would it be the absolute minimum which I think is 37 + 1 or will they go to the maximum which is is 38 + 6? The reason I ask is that there's obviously cap pressure plus a need to bank space for a tilt at a FA next year. There's a bit of a problem that I can see if the club goes down the 38 + 6 path in that there will only be end of draft and rookie picks to top up to those numbers, remembering that the McInnes bid will wipe out all those later picks. I think I'm right that the DFA period has ended and there's been no incoming players.

Next year I think is going to present the same conundrum. It seems likely even this far out that Nick Daicos is shaping as a #1 pick. If that's the case then all of the Pies later picks will again be moved to the back of the draft (depending on where the Pies finish). There will be more delistings and a few retirements so the list will need replenishing.

Assuming these hypotheticals take place, how on earth are the Pies going to replenish their list and add depth and the prospect/development players with such poor picks. They could end up with 4 first round picks but the rest of their picks are late draft and rookie draft. It's quite possible that there'll be 20 players out over the 2 years. How do they all get replaced?

There will be players who need more opportunities at many clubs next year. The key is to identify those that will be available and then watch them enough to confirm the player assessment.

Players like Jesse Hogan

23

Jesse Hogan

Age

29

Ht

196cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.0

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.3

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

0.0

1star

G

0.0

1star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

were available for a song this year, so talent can be found, you just have to accept that it has flaws.

The Pies just need to not overpay, like they have in salary to get said players to commit. Easier said than done but that has proven successful for Geelong the last few years.

 

[Knightmare]

Both Matt Balmer and Cal Twomey believe the Lions will only take 2 spots in the draft despite having 4 free spots available do the Lions look at 2 delisted free agents or just go 2 list spots free for a mid season draft

Today was the last day of delisted free agency.

Clubs have missed opportunities and left a lot of talent on the table.

Perhaps a number of those who were delisted put their names into the national draft, and clubs have the flexibility to take them there with mostly only the existing clubs looking at them as rookies.

I find myself liking a lot of the players delisted more than a lot of the guys in the draft this year.

I'm not normally a fan of delistings. Mostly it's those 30+ year old veterans I like and feel have a couple more good years, and there are a good number of those, but there are guys even aside from them which is why I spoke up the period, as I did with the trade period. I see a combination of guys who are established and able and others who are developing and can become AFL standard.

I think more than just Brisbane choose to leave list spaces open and go in with less senior list spots. The theory is with no NAB League this year, there will be plenty of talent who would have gotten drafted this year who we're not aware and good and will go during that period and be reasonably highly touted. It's also the same story with the VFL, with a few out of there possible also.
There will also be clubs who use all the possible list spots, but have the 36 senior listed players, but fill up the rookie list to still see the maximum I believe it's 44 total listed players for next year, meaning including cat b rookies, up to 8 rookies in that kind of scenario.
So there are lots of ways things can be played for Brisbane among other clubs.

 

[4tune8]

I covered the topic on YouTube 'The fundamental list management mistakes Collingwood have made and need to learn from'. That will give my most complete view, and in the description below I summarise all those lessons that can be learnt if you don't want to look through it all. But basically, Collingwood have made a lot of mistakes and need to learn from the mistakes they've made.

Who the Pies look at with 14/16 if a bid on Reef comes later. They'll probably be hoping two of: Cox, Reid, Bruhn, Macrae, Chapman, Carroll and Cook slide through.

I imagine with all the players moving on that Collingwood will look to use all the list spots. Collingwood tend to prefer having fewer senior listed players and more rookies, and I'd expect that trend to continue.

I doubt Daicos is the top pick. Jason Horne looks like that clear standout at this stage. Daicos could be that number 2 guy, and seems like a top-5 pick if the draft was held today.

There will be trade and free agency opportunities over the coming seasons. If Collingwood are to improve, utilising those opportunities have to play a part.

I know clubs, fans and the media are obsessed with building through the draft, but building just through the draft isn't enough. To build, converting trades and free agency pickups is every bit as important, and more important in the short term to success.

Thanks for the response.

I'll have a look at the youtube channel.

So for this year the Pies have 34 left on their list with 2 of them rookies ( I assume Cat A) If they load up their list then they'll take 2 of those players you mentioned plus Reef which takes the primary list to 35 which means that 7 players will need to be brought in, 3 after around pick 65, 2 Cat A rookies and 2 Cat B rookies (if they have them)

Next year, if a bid comes in for Daicos at 2 then that pretty much wipes out the Pies 1st three picks leaving picks 50, 68, 70 (roughly) Now if 7 players leave, which could be likely through retirements and delistings then another 6 players will be needed. 3 of them from the draft from pick 50 onwards and 3 more rookies.

I know that teams cannot rely on just the draft to build a list and need to rely on FA's, DFA's, RFA's and trades to round the process out. It looks like the trade and RFA scenarios are quite limited for the Pies because there's really no draft capital to use for RFA's or contracted players apart from the 2022 1st and I'm not really sure there's much trade capital either. Thereby limiting the capacity for list growth to FA's and DFA's.

Over the next 2 years it's possible to see 4 x 1st round picks (with only 1 in the top echelon) and maybe 1 FA and a couple of DFA's coming onto the list. Over the same period there will need to be 6 players brought in after pick 50 in the ND, 5 Cat A rookies and 2 Cat B rookies.

Do you see Collingwood being able to improve given what I've outlined?

 

[bellpark]

Very interested in who you think the Cats are looking at by trading back up to 27.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare who do you think the cats are eying off with pick 27?? Do they have a target in mind?? Do you think they will try and move up even further??

 

[sunsofanarchy]

KM can you compare Hollands to Kemp from last year? Kemp sliding down to 17 after his ACL but Hollands still in the mix for pick 1

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[Knightmare]

Thanks for the response.

I'll have a look at the youtube channel.

So for this year the Pies have 34 left on their list with 2 of them rookies ( I assume Cat A) If they load up their list then they'll take 2 of those players you mentioned plus Reef which takes the primary list to 35 which means that 7 players will need to be brought in, 3 after around pick 65, 2 Cat A rookies and 2 Cat B rookies (if they have them)

Next year, if a bid comes in for Daicos at 2 then that pretty much wipes out the Pies 1st three picks leaving picks 50, 68, 70 (roughly) Now if 7 players leave, which could be likely through retirements and delistings then another 6 players will be needed. 3 of them from the draft from pick 50 onwards and 3 more rookies.

I know that teams cannot rely on just the draft to build a list and need to rely on FA's, DFA's, RFA's and trades to round the process out. It looks like the trade and RFA scenarios are quite limited for the Pies because there's really no draft capital to use for RFA's or contracted players apart from the 2022 1st and I'm not really sure there's much trade capital either. Thereby limiting the capacity for list growth to FA's and DFA's.

Over the next 2 years it's possible to see 4 x 1st round picks (with only 1 in the top echelon) and maybe 1 FA and a couple of DFA's coming onto the list. Over the same period there will need to be 6 players brought in after pick 50 in the ND, 5 Cat A rookies and 2 Cat B rookies.

Do you see Collingwood being able to improve given what I've outlined?

Senior lists need a minimum of 36 players, so Collingwood will either elected to have 36 or 37 senior listed players with the rest rookies.

Daicos has yet to play against good competition so we'll have to see where he is in 12 months time. Pies can always trade in/out of next year's draft as they desire depending on how many picks they want to use and how aggressive or otherwise they want to be either in the draft or during the trade/free agency period. I suspect next year they make some plays during the trade and free agency period.

If Collingwood retain their 2021 picks, some of those can be used next offseason, and there are always player trades. So depending on how creative they get, there will be opportunities to improve the list. Through the trade period, you don't always have to spend a lot to get someone, so they don't have to necessarily just go after stars.

Will Collingwood improve? I see a step backwards this year. I'm also seeing a good portion of Collingwood's better players at the back ends of their careers, so I'm expecting a downward trajectory from here. If I'm to name Collingwood's best players. Collingwood's best players include in no particular order: Grundy, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Moore, De Goey, Adams, Crisp, Maynard. Pendlebury and Howe are over 30, Sidebottom turns 30 at the start of January, and with all those guys 24 or older with improvement generally occurring before 24, it speaks trouble for Collingwood, particularly with very little in the way of good youth. There is a group below them of capable footballers including again in no particular order: Mihocek, Daicos, Quaynor and Elliott. So it's a thin group, and Daicos and Quaynor are the only two in the way of youth among those. Collingwood are going to need to start introducing some younger guys into the team and hoping they can push out some of the weaker, last 8 of the best 22, of which most of whom are on their last legs anyway.

Very interested in who you think the Cats are looking at by trading back up to 27.

Geelong are well positioned to go best available and capitalise on any value they think might be there given the trade/free agency period additions which filled the club's pressing list needs.

To give you a name, around the point I could see an Eddie Ford dropping and making some sense. I'm not sure where he settles, whether it's midfield, forward or back. But he's a talent and an example of someone I could see Geelong considering and possibly liking.

Knightmare who do you think the cats are eying off with pick 27?? Do they have a target in mind?? Do you think they will try and move up even further??

I think best available is most likely with the view towards considering a slider if there is one they like. Geelong are well set up and don't have to with particular urgency I don't feel go after a specific type with that pick. It's mostly midfielders and general forwards around that point to choose from.

KM can you compare Hollands to Kemp from last year? Kemp sliding down to 17 after his ACL but Hollands still in the mix for pick 1

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Kemp can be good, but Hollands is the better footballer. Kemp is taller and has the added flexibility to play key position, but Hollands is the more damaging. Hollands forward of centre is more dangerous, a better ball winner through the midfield, more damaging kick and takes on the game with his run on another level.

 

[blueiris]

Would Carroll last until pick 25 Twomey believes there’s a good chance of him going to StKilda or the Lions

 

[Knightmare]

Would Carroll last until pick 25 Twomey believes there’s a good chance of him going to StKilda or the Lions

Bargain if he makes it that far.

That's the low end of his range.

Collingwood at 14/16 I think consider him, and maybe a Fremantle if there are no talls at their pick.

 

[gawndog37]

Bargain if he makes it that far.

That's the low end of his range.

Collingwood at 14/16 I think consider him, and maybe a Fremantle if there are no talls at their pick.

Twomey also said the Saints pick was his starting point, but I'd be amazed if we overlooked him at our pair of first rounders since he's exactly the type of player we need.

 

[Knightmare]

Twomey also said the Saints pick was his starting point, but I'd be amazed if we overlooked him at our pair of first rounders since he's exactly the type of player we need.

Cal is the one who is regularly talking to clubs, so he generally has a good feel.

To hear that's his starting point for Carroll I find surprising as there are a few clubs who like him, but perhaps more-so shortlist than as their preference. Absolute bargain anywhere after the first 15.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

KM, where would you rate Jeremy Sharp had he been in this draft pool? I'm wondering how unfavourable the value of the Sharp trade was for Gold Coast.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, where would you rate Jeremy Sharp had he been in this draft pool? I'm wondering how unfavourable the value of the Sharp trade was for Gold Coast.

If in this year's pool, I'd rate Jeremy Sharp around 19th on my board.

 

[Dockeroo]

Hi KM, back in March Logan McDonald wasn’t even in your top 20 for this year. Now you pretty much say he’s a generational draft prospect, similar level to Nick Riewoldt and one of the best you have seen in many years, alongside JUH this year and Lukosius from a couple of years back. What exactly made him jump from relative anonymity in your eyes last March to one of the best prospects you have seen in the draft? I assume it’s purely his 9 WAFL games this year and nothing else. I also assume you were not overly impressed with his performances as an underager last year?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, back in March Logan McDonald wasn’t even in your top 20 for this year. Now you pretty much say he’s a generational draft prospect, similar level to Nick Riewoldt and one of the best you have seen in many years, alongside JUH this year and Lukosius from a couple of years back. What exactly made him jump from relative anonymity in your eyes last March to one of the best prospects you have seen in the draft? I assume it’s purely his 9 WAFL games this year and nothing else. I also assume you were not overly impressed with his performances as an underager last year?

McDonald was just outside of that top-20 for me coming into the season. Anywhere 20-25 I considering him suitable to rate. Played U18 Champs and was decent. Decent in WA Colts. Anyone who had him just inside or just outside that top-20 wouldn't be far wrong, but I can't imagine many if any would have had him much higher at that time.

Why McDonald is a clear #2 after Jamarra, and really a contender to be that best in this draft is how he has improved his numbers across the board despite jumping from WAFL Colts to WAFL League level. Disposals, marks, goals. He's better across the board. When you're improving at that rapid rate, still growing and performing to a WAFL team of the year standard. He's a pick with confidence prospect. He ticks the boxes you want a top end KPP to tick.

Making that kind of jump is like if a state league gets whatever numbers this year, then jumps up to AFL level and across the board increases their numbers. It's stuff you don't expect to see happen.

 

[piemad1]

Bargain if he makes it that far.

That's the low end of his range.

Collingwood at 14/16 I think consider him, and maybe a Fremantle if there are no talls at their pick.

Hoping the pies take cook at 14 and carroll at 16. Look to trade back in for a couple of tall forwards after mcinnes bid.

 

[Knightmare]

Hoping the pies take cook at 14 and carroll at 16. Look to trade back in for a couple of tall forwards after mcinnes bid.

That's the opportunity I'm seeing.

Cook can replace Stephenson. Carroll and McInnes succeed Pendlebury and Treloar.

Macrae is another if he drops who represents value, likewise Bruhn. But they're all guys who from my perspective need to be shortlisted.

 

[Wild Bill]

Hey KM - do you think we will be heading into the draft still not sure who will be going to the Crows?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM - do you think we will be heading into the draft still not sure who will be going to the Crows?

Monday or Tuesday I suspect Adelaide's target will be revealed.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

How then do you view the overall trade value given that we have a young list and now Sharp has had 1 year in the system under his belt? Or is that a non-factor?

And just on the kemp pick, am I to take from that, that kemp slid because of his perceived ability and not the concern of his injury?

If in this year's pool, I'd rate Jeremy Sharp around 19th on my board.

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[samthemanlonergan]

Will you be doing a full phantom draft?

 

[Knightmare]

How then do you view the overall trade value given that we have a young list and now Sharp has had 1 year in the system under his belt? Or is that a non-factor?

And just on the kemp pick, am I to take from that, that kemp slid because of his perceived ability and not the concern of his injury?

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Kemp if not for injury was firmly in the top-10 mix. My feel is he would have gone earlier, though not by a lot. Maybe to Geelong or Port Adelaide just a small few picks earlier.

Sharp's value has in my view dropped slightly since last year given he has only played the two senior games and wasn't able to win his own ball. I'm just going off of my evaluation from draft time last year to keep things fair. I didn't love the top end last year, really much the same as this year. With his slow start, particularly with that first round pick to Geelong helping secure Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

, they're on the winning side of the ledger on that particular trade.

Whether the pick eventually yields a player better or worse than Sharp, that's something to determine a few years from now. We don't even know who that player is.

 

[Knightmare]

Will you be doing a full phantom draft?

I will indeed. Every pick, every player.

ESPN will publish it the morning of the draft so as to maximise traffic. I'll finalise it Tuesday.

 

[Wild Bill]

Monday or Tuesday I suspect Adelaide's target will be revealed.

As it stand who do you believe they will take?

Its rare this late to be debating who goes 1. Rowell, Walsh, Raynor & Weitering were set a while out from the draft - McGrath I remember was not as clear cut.

 

[Knightmare]

As it stand who do you believe they will take?

Its rare this late to be debating who goes 1. Rowell, Walsh, Raynor & Weitering were set a while out from the draft - McGrath I remember was not as clear cut.

Pick 1 I'm expecting a bid on Jamarra.

I'm still slightly leaning towards Thilthorpe as Adelaide's preference. But it's out of Thilthorpe, McDonald and Hollands. Maybe it's Adelaide thinking they might be able to move down a spot or two and still get their preferred guy. Not sure why nothing solid has leaked, but I haven't at least heard anything solid to this point in time.