Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Bardo State]

Hey KM, just going over highlights of guys that could be at Hawthorn's pick 5. I noticed in your ESPN rankings you described Thilthorpe as "freakishly quick" yet in his SANFL highlights I rarely see him getting separation from a defender like McDonald. Why do you think that is? Is it just a lack of time up forward to generate the highlights or is he slow off the mark but quick at full tilt?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, just going over highlights of guys that could be at Hawthorn's pick 5. I noticed in your ESPN rankings you described Thilthorpe as "freakishly quick" yet in his SANFL highlights I rarely see him getting separation from a defender like McDonald. Why do you think that is? Is it just a lack of time up forward to generate the highlights or is he slow off the mark but quick at full tilt?

Groins have impacted him.

Playing a lot of ruck is the other reason you're not seeing him creating separation up forward as much as a McDonald who played permanently forward.

The speed we've seen this year hasn't been as much on the lead, but more-so in the form of how he takes on the game offensively - either with ball in hand or running in support. Or that's what I've noticed. He runs with the ball like he's a midfielder and really has a good burst to him in those instances if you go over that footage.

 

[blueiris]

As it stand who do you believe they will take?

Its rare this late to be debating who goes 1. Rowell, Walsh, Raynor & Weitering were set a while out from the draft - McGrath I remember was not as clear cut.

The Lions were still under decided on Rayner and Brayshaw until draft night

 

[Wild Bill]

The Lions were still under decided on Rayner and Brayshaw until draft night

Every mock draft I can find has Rayner at 1. Bris may have not known but everyone else did.

 

[BigFatNorthFan]

The Lions were still under decided on Rayner and Brayshaw until draft night

Reported two days before the draft that they had settled on Rayner: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...k/news-story/1206e488d12f37caade3b59a2e68c034

As it stand who do you believe they will take?

Its rare this late to be debating who goes 1. Rowell, Walsh, Raynor & Weitering were set a while out from the draft - McGrath I remember was not as clear cut.

McCartin is the other one that seemed to flip late. Petracca was seen as likely No.1 until shortly before the draft, much like McCluggage in 2016. To answer the question - I feel like if Adelaide was going the obvious choice of Logan McDonald, wouldn't we know by now? But that's probably just my North heart believing what it wants to.

 

[Choppers]

Reported two days before the draft that they had settled on Rayner: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...k/news-story/1206e488d12f37caade3b59a2e68c034



Ah, that's what I like, someone who believes everything they read in the newspapers.......my ole man once said to me, and this was way before the internet..............believe nothing that you read, and only half what you see.....

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Kemp if not for injury was firmly in the top-10 mix. My feel is he would have gone earlier, though not by a lot. Maybe to Geelong or Port Adelaide just a small few picks earlier.

Sharp's value has in my view dropped slightly since last year given he has only played the two senior games and wasn't able to win his own ball. I'm just going off of my evaluation from draft time last year to keep things fair. I didn't love the top end last year, really much the same as this year. With his slow start, particularly with that first round pick to Geelong helping secure Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

, they're on the winning side of the ledger on that particular trade.

Whether the pick eventually yields a player better or worse than Sharp, that's something to determine a few years from now. We don't even know who that player is.

I'm not fussed by 'winning' trades, I just want to make good moves in our interest that will create a premiership team.

And so what pick 11 turns out to be, doesn't really phase me, and I guess that is kind of counterintuitive as we spent one to pay for the other, but in terms of Gold Coast's needs with a young list, or any team who has a young list, is a pick this year, not worth more then a slightly later pick next year because you are then 12 months closer to that player being at his prime.

For example, if Phillips, Thilthorpe or Hollands came to GC at pick 5, would the crows not be wise to trade their future 1st so that they can get games into that player and fast track their rebuild by that much? Knowing full well that next years pick could be 1 or 2

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JennyTalia]

I'm not fussed by 'winning' trades, I just want to make good moves in our interest that will create a premiership team.

And so what pick 11 turns out to be, doesn't really phase me, and I guess that is kind of counterintuitive as we spent one to pay for the other, but in terms of Gold Coast's needs with a young list, or any team who has a young list, is a pick this year, not worth more then a slightly later pick next year because you are then 12 months closer to that player being at his prime.

For example, if Phillips, Thilthorpe or Hollands came to GC at pick 5, would the crows not be wise to trade their future 1st so that they can get games into that player and fast track their rebuild by that much? Knowing full well that next years pick could be 1 or 2

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

Crows would be crazy to trade next year's first. Won't happen. Rebuilds don't take one draft. If anything i can see us potentially trading pick 9 into next year

 

[sunsofanarchy]

I don't think it's crazy, and i don't think it is likely either. But who are you going to trade pick 9 to? A team that would back themselves to finish in the finals, comfortably, or a team who has sees a player available who they think should have already been picked several picks ago, ala Jeremy Sharp. Agree that rebuilds don't happen in a year but a list manager should rebuild as quickly as possible

Crows would be crazy to trade next year's first. Won't happen. Rebuilds don't take one draft. If anything i can see us potentially trading pick 9 into next year

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not fussed by 'winning' trades, I just want to make good moves in our interest that will create a premiership team.

And so what pick 11 turns out to be, doesn't really phase me, and I guess that is kind of counterintuitive as we spent one to pay for the other, but in terms of Gold Coast's needs with a young list, or any team who has a young list, is a pick this year, not worth more then a slightly later pick next year because you are then 12 months closer to that player being at his prime.

For example, if Phillips, Thilthorpe or Hollands came to GC at pick 5, would the crows not be wise to trade their future 1st so that they can get games into that player and fast track their rebuild by that much? Knowing full well that next years pick could be 1 or 2

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

The key in that trade for the Suns is Sharp develops.

By winning, the point of trades is to create win-wins and do something that helps both teams get better in some way. Geelong have won on their side as it has helped them secure Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

. In their situation, they need that win-now guy. Gold Coast will be looking for a win on their side next and hope Sharp develops and provides relative value for what was paid.

Adelaide would be making a mistake trading their future first for pick 5. What if they finish bottom again? North Melbourne with their decimated defence will be giving them competition, but you'd prefer pick 1/2 next year over pick 5 this year. And as a bottom team, it doesn't matter when you get better. It's not like a contender where you're talking about windows and you want to maximise your chances during that period while you still have your good players. If Adelaide were to trade for pick 5, something more suitable would be trading their 2021 1st for pick 5 and Gold Coast's 2021 1st round pick. Then maybe it's more justifiable if they're absolutely dead-set on whoever that available player at 5 is.

 

[JennyTalia]

I don't think it's crazy, and i don't think it is likely either. But who are you going to trade pick 9 to? A team that would back themselves to finish in the finals, comfortably, or a team who has sees a player available who they think should have already been picked several picks ago, ala Jeremy Sharp. Agree that rebuilds don't happen in a year but a list manager should rebuild as quickly as possible

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeah the market for next year will be hard to get into. Maybe if there was a player Collingwood were keen on at 9? Potentially I'd be okay with swapping that for their future first. Who knows what will happen with live trading this year though.

Main point is, the prospect of a high pick next year has been keeping me going. Trading it would really deflate me. We seemed to have bottomed out at the worst time. Compromised draft and covid have really shaken my confidence in this draft.

 

[InFineForm]

Yeah the market for next year will be hard to get into. Maybe if there was a player Collingwood were keen on at 9? Potentially I'd be okay with swapping that for their future first. Who knows what will happen with live trading this year though.

Main point is, the prospect of a high pick next year has been keeping me going. Trading it would really deflate me. We seemed to have bottomed out at the worst time. Compromised draft and covid have really shaken my confidence in this draft.

Could North do something like 11 & future 2nd (doubt this years Pick 30 gets it done) to trade down to 9 if a Perkins (who they're apparently keen on) was still on the board?

 

[Pykie]

The key in that trade for the Suns is Sharp develops.

By winning, the point of trades is to create win-wins and do something that helps both teams get better in some way. Geelong have won on their side as it has helped them secure Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

. In their situation, they need that win-now guy. Gold Coast will be looking for a win on their side next and hope Sharp develops and provides relative value for what was paid.

Adelaide would be making a mistake trading their future first for pick 5. What if they finish bottom again? North Melbourne with their decimated defence will be giving them competition, but you'd prefer pick 1/2 next year over pick 5 this year. And as a bottom team, it doesn't matter when you get better. It's not like a contender where you're talking about windows and you want to maximise your chances during that period while you still have your good players. If Adelaide were to trade for pick 5, something more suitable would be trading their 2021 1st for pick 5 and Gold Coast's 2021 1st round pick. Then maybe it's more justifiable if they're absolutely dead-set on whoever that available player at 5 is.

I think you better email the club and let them know about this decimated defence, just so we manage to field a side for a round 1.

 

[JennyTalia]

Could North do something like 11 & future 2nd (doubt this years Pick 30 gets it done) to trade down to 9 if a Perkins (who they're apparently keen on) was still on the board?

I wouldn't know. Depending on who's available I'd think about it. My opinion means nothing though

 

[InFineForm]

I wouldn't know. Depending on who's available I'd think about it. My opinion means nothing though

Same sentiment! Just spit-balling!

 

[cairo tiger]

Hi KM you are a freak on this stuff mate.
You rate Georgia varigiab anywhere? Will Phillips mate from the Caurlfield Grammarians?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM you are a freak on this stuff mate.
You rate Georgia varigiab anywhere? Will Phillips mate from the Caurlfield Grammarians?

I'm assuming the spelling is a typo? If not, no idea who that is.

 

[Davo-27]

Hi KM you are a freak on this stuff mate.
You rate Georgia varigiab anywhere? Will Phillips mate from the Caurlfield Grammarians?

Georgio Varagiannis, he is a good little player, but too small, he was one that missed the cut for me when making my list in December 2019, im not sure he makes it this year, but with the NAB League going to u19's might get a 2nd chance next year?

 

[Knightmare]

Georgio Varagiannis, he is a good little player, but too small, he was one that missed the cut for me when making my list in December 2019, im not sure he makes it this year, but with the NAB League going to u19's might get a 2nd chance next year?

Didn't recognise the name initially.

Varagiannis played some NAB League last year for Oakleigh worked hard and found a fair bit of the footy. I found a few times he probably wasn't as clean as he needed to be at ground level, and as a smaller type as he's not a forward I'm just not sure in an AFL context. So he's not someone really on the draft radar this year.

He's worth Oakleigh bringing back next year though. He'll find the footy and rack it up probably on a wing or on a flank. Just looks more-so like a future state leaguer than AFL footballer based on what he was doing last year. A year on, who knows how much he among other Victorians have improved.

 

[cairo tiger]

Didn't recognise the name initially.

Varagiannis played some NAB League last year for Oakleigh worked hard and found a fair bit of the footy. I found a few times he probably wasn't as clean as he needed to be at ground level, and as a smaller type as he's not a forward I'm just not sure in an AFL context. So he's not someone really on the draft radar this year.

He's worth Oakleigh bringing back next year though. He'll find the footy and rack it up probably on a wing or on a flank. Just looks more-so like a future state leaguer than AFL footballer based on what he was doing last year. A year on, who knows how much he among other Victorians have improved.

thanks both of you.

 

[TradeDraft]

Knightmare when are you going to Release your Mock?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare when are you going to Release your Mock?

Final mock will pass onto ESPN on Tuesday and will be out Wednesday morning.

In the podcast on Monday night I'll probably go through an as it stands first round.

I'm currently sporting a cold so once I'm over that and my voice sounds better, I also have planned for my YouTube to go through my full top-50 power rankings, so keep your eyes peeled for that one also.

 

[TradeDraft]

Final mock will pass onto ESPN on Tuesday and will be out Wednesday morning.

In the podcast on Monday night I'll probably go through an as it stands first round.

I'm currently sporting a cold so once I'm over that and my voice sounds better, I also have planned for my YouTube to go through my full top-50 power rankings, so keep your eyes peeled for that one also.

I sure will mate.

Hope you feel better ASAP

 

[Knightmare]

I sure will mate.

Hope you feel better ASAP

Thanks Dave.

Happens to me draft time every year. Sometimes a few days after the draft, this time a few days before. Working a full time + doing ESPN, coming onto here on bigfooty, twitter and doing some YouTube now, I'm a glutton for punishment around draft time. Probably not the healthiest habit, but as long as I can keep doing it, I will, as for me at least it's the most fun time of year.

 

[cairo tiger]

On behalf of all of us who appreciate your work get better knighter