Review Knightmare's 2010-2013 top 40

[Footy Smarts]

Think back 5-10 years ago at some of the rucks leading ruck divisions.

We're going through a purple patch of ruckmen. I'd almost argue that more ruckman have played consistently at a high level now than ever before. I reckon there are 10-15 'top tier' rucks in the comp, whereas normally there are only 3-5. I reckon this dilution of top standard rucks has led to no real genuine stand outs (i.e. cox at his peak) and a perception that there isn't much at the top end when really, there's more than ever.

Yeah I'd agree with that. There are a lot of rucks in the league now whose best is very good. So it becomes the case of who's in good form and fully fit which means players can go from being the best in the game to being run of the mill in a short period of time. I think clubs are also just much better at targetting body types who will make good ruckmen and then developing them.

That also makes sense why clubs don't give up a lot for ruckmen, particularly young ruckmen, nowadays. The way AFL is now played you can really only have 1 proper ruck in the team so that's 18 getting a game across the competition. Most of the better teams are happy to have guys like Roughead, Blicavs and Tippett as 2nd rucks so that they can play another position most of the time and not just rotate a ruckman off the bench. So the supply and demand means that rucks aren't worth that much in today's football since there are plenty of potentially good rucks not getting games and not many teams who can offer them game time ahead of others.

I don't know how Knightmare is rating the players. I'm not sure if it's based on who he thinks will have the highest ceiling, who he thinks will have the best overall career or who he would pick if given the option. But if it's the last one there's no way I'd pick those ruckmen so early because there career length is limited because they take a long time to develop and are generally more susceptible to injury, and you can get a competent ruck without giving up too much. For example Grundy might have an absurdly high ceiling (I don't know) and at his best be a jet. But there's no way I'd pick him before Bontempelli who is already having a massive impact on games and I wouldn't be confident of getting a solid replacement for Bontempelli with a 2nd rounder in a trade whereas I would with Grundy.

 

[Skippos]

Yeah I'd agree with that. There are a lot of rucks in the league now whose best is very good. So it becomes the case of who's in good form and fully fit which means players can go from being the best in the game to being run of the mill in a short period of time. I think clubs are also just much better at targetting body types who will make good ruckmen and then developing them.

That also makes sense why clubs don't give up a lot for ruckmen, particularly young ruckmen, nowadays. The way AFL is now played you can really only have 1 proper ruck in the team so that's 18 getting a game across the competition. Most of the better teams are happy to have guys like Roughead, Blicavs and Tippett as 2nd rucks so that they can play another position most of the time and not just rotate a ruckman off the bench. So the supply and demand means that rucks aren't worth that much in today's football since there are plenty of potentially good rucks not getting games and not many teams who can offer them game time ahead of others.

I don't know how Knightmare is rating the players. I'm not sure if it's based on who he thinks will have the highest ceiling, who he thinks will have the best overall career or who he would pick if given the option. But if it's the last one there's no way I'd pick those ruckmen so early because there career length is limited because they take a long time to develop and are generally more susceptible to injury, and you can get a competent ruck without giving up too much. For example Grundy might have an absurdly high ceiling (I don't know) and at his best be a jet. But there's no way I'd pick him before Bontempelli who is already having a massive impact on games and I wouldn't be confident of getting a solid replacement for Bontempelli with a 2nd rounder in a trade whereas I would with Grundy.

Yeah I'm with you there. With 10-15 top tier rucks and 18 starters each week there's far more supply of them /demand compared to top tier mids. In general I'm pretty confident all of Lycett/Witts/Grundy/Nicholls will be exceptional players (and I say that with a higher degree of certainty than mids listed above them) but given the quantity of great-elite rucks they're far easier/cheaper to obtain than top tier mids.

So yeah, I too would go the top tier mid any day. That's not to say that the rucks can't be brilliant players - it's to say that it's unfortunate for them in a sense in that they play in a position where there aren't that many spots to fill and lots of exceptional options to fill them. I mean if you're short a ruck there's always one not getting a game elsewhere who's more than good enough. Maric, Jacobs, Martin, Mumford, McEvoy, Hickey, McIntosh, Jolly - all rucks that despite being very good hardly cost the world. Just don't get that with mids. You take the mid purely because they're harder to obtain and worth more, much harder to fill a 'lack of a-grade mid' gap than 'lack of a-grade ruck' gap.

 

[Prochard123]

I believe Grundy will have the ability to become a key forward in the future and kick 50 odd goals while pinch hitting in the ruck. Grundy is very versatile and I believe will turn into a player like cox or Jacobs who gathers a heap of possessions and can kick goals instead of a ruck like sandilands who rely on effective hit outs as his form of output

Yeah I'd agree with that. There are a lot of rucks in the league now whose best is very good. So it becomes the case of who's in good form and fully fit which means players can go from being the best in the game to being run of the mill in a short period of time. I think clubs are also just much better at targetting body types who will make good ruckmen and then developing them.

That also makes sense why clubs don't give up a lot for ruckmen, particularly young ruckmen, nowadays. The way AFL is now played you can really only have 1 proper ruck in the team so that's 18 getting a game across the competition. Most of the better teams are happy to have guys like Roughead, Blicavs and Tippett as 2nd rucks so that they can play another position most of the time and not just rotate a ruckman off the bench. So the supply and demand means that rucks aren't worth that much in today's football since there are plenty of potentially good rucks not getting games and not many teams who can offer them game time ahead of others.

I don't know how Knightmare is rating the players. I'm not sure if it's based on who he thinks will have the highest ceiling, who he thinks will have the best overall career or who he would pick if given the option. But if it's the last one there's no way I'd pick those ruckmen so early because there career length is limited because they take a long time to develop and are generally more susceptible to injury, and you can get a competent ruck without giving up too much. For example Grundy might have an absurdly high ceiling (I don't know) and at his best be a jet. But there's no way I'd pick him before Bontempelli who is already having a massive impact on games and I wouldn't be confident of getting a solid replacement for Bontempelli with a 2nd rounder in a trade whereas I would with Grundy.

Fairi

 

[Prochard123]

Yeah I'm with you there. With 10-15 top tier rucks and 18 starters each week there's far more supply of them /demand compared to top tier mids. In general I'm pretty confident all of Lycett/Witts/Grundy/Nicholls will be exceptional players (and I say that with a higher degree of certainty than mids listed above them) but given the quantity of great-elite rucks they're far easier/cheaper to obtain than top tier mids.

So yeah, I too would go the top tier mid any day. That's not to say that the rucks can't be brilliant players - it's to say that it's unfortunate for them in a sense in that they play in a position where there aren't that many spots to fill and lots of exceptional options to fill them. I mean if you're short a ruck there's always one not getting a game elsewhere who's more than good enough. Maric, Jacobs, Martin, Mumford, McEvoy, Hickey, McIntosh, Jolly - all rucks that despite being very good hardly cost the world. Just don't get that with mids. You take the mid purely because they're harder to obtain and worth more, much harder to fill a 'lack of a-grade mid' gap than 'lack of a-grade ruck' gap.

I might be slightly biased but I consider Grundy to be nic nat level of talent rather than all of the mature rucks you mentioned. And in nic Nat's scenario, he has far greater value than most of the elite mids. If a ruck can get 5-6 clearances and 20 possessions along with 30 odd hit outs, then surely he would be more valuable than a solid midfielder

 

[Footy Smarts]

I believe Grundy will have the ability to become a key forward in the future and kick 50 odd goals while pinch hitting in the ruck. Grundy is very versatile and I believe will turn into a player like cox or Jacobs who gathers a heap of possessions and can kick goals instead of a ruck like sandilands who rely on effective hit outs as his form of output

If he can do that he'll be worth his weight in gold. You may well be right and it also would allow Witts to play as the number 1 ruck. But historically having a ruck become a quality key forward is incredibly rare. It's just really difficult to expect a guy who's trained in the ruck to spend 80% of their time in a different position and thrive. I can't really think of a ruckman that's done that recently. Honestly Paul Salmon's about the last genuine ruckman I can remember who also was a quality key forward. Maybe Grundy will be that type of player in time but I'm definitely yet to be convinced.

 

[Bender571]

Knightmare's patent anti-North bias shining through.

Still reckon we'll finish 12th this year?

Atley and Harper both demonstrated more than enough to be on that list. More than enough.

Good call.

 

[Ambrosia]

You can argue that a ruckman at their best is really, really important. But in recent times almost no ruckmen have played consistently at a very high level for a long period of time.

Most good ruckmen are guys like Jacobs, Minson and Maric who spend a long time being thought of as spuds because they take a long time to develop. Even when they break out they tend to have very poor seasons due to injury or form more often than gun smalls. In recent years only Cox and Sandilands have performed at a consistently high level over a long period of time. They're the only 2 rucks in the last decade who have performed to a standard that would have them right up towards the pointy end of this list.

Yet Knightmare's list contains 4 rucks in the top 20. If you took the the 4 years across Sandi and Cox's drafts (say 1998 to 2001), these 2 would be competing with guys like Bolton, Hayes, Pavlich, Glass, Chapman, Brown, Enright, Ling, O'Keefe, Riewoldt, Shaun Burgoyne, Scott Thompson, Kerr, Ablett, Hodge, Judd, Ball, Dal Santo, Johnson and Mitchell. Personally I'd have both rucks inside the top 20 (Cox top 10 for mine) but even taking the 2 best ruckmen in recent memory only gets the second one towards the bottom end of the 20 in my opinion.

Considering so few rucks dominate the game over an extended period, and the 2 recent ones that have are by no means massive standouts across their 4 draft years, I think it's a big step to think that 4 of the top 20 over this drafting period will be rucks. It would just go against all the recent history of how the career of ruckmen work out.

Thanks for doing a much better job than me at getting my point across

 

[Knightmare]

I believe Grundy will have the ability to become a key forward in the future and kick 50 odd goals while pinch hitting in the ruck. Grundy is very versatile and I believe will turn into a player like cox or Jacobs who gathers a heap of possessions and can kick goals instead of a ruck like sandilands who rely on effective hit outs as his form of output

Fairi

Going forward in combination with Witts for Grundy is something he'll have to do but you might find it interesting to note that Grundy kicks more goals through the ruck than he does up forward with many of his goals even long goals from outside 50.

Going forward and having an impact is something as with Witts will I imagine be incorporated into his game and he's done it successfully before through the u18s with those multiple 3 goal games but I see Grundy long term as the clear number one ruckman with Witts the number two guy with roughly a 60/40 split what I'd consider likely with Witts while not yet recognised for this yet but he's already a very effective forward with his work on the lead particularly strong.

 

[blueiris]

Knights do you rate Lewis Taylor yet?

 

[Knightmare]

Knights do you rate Lewis Taylor yet?

He'll place in the rising star and I would have said the same before tonight's match. Has a good long term career ahead of him. Not top 40 from 2010-2013 good though for me just yet. Some others I can't help but think have a more scope to improve. But he'll be good. No doubt.

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

I'd almost guarantee Grundy and Witts won't end up being top 20 players.

One maybe, but definitely not two.

Neither are agile enough to hold down a key position post and play their best footy in the ruck floating forward. They both can't do that in the same side.

 

[Prochard123]

I'd almost guarantee Grundy and Witts won't end up being top 20 players.

One maybe, but definitely not two.

Neither are agile enough to hold down a key position post and play their best footy in the ruck floating forward. They both can't do that in the same side.

Grundy is as athletic and agile as you like for a ruckman.

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

For a ruckman, yes, but not a key forward.

 

[Tulip]

50 behinds a season maybe. Terrible kick

 

[Ambrosia]

Grundy is as athletic and agile as you like for a ruckman.

Agreed although from what I've seen he has no natural forward instincts. Witt's looks much better than Grundy up forward.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Collingwood are strong through the draft and in developing young talent.

The issue at Collingwood is that those mid career guys aren't elevating their games further and those veterans are declining earlier than happens at other clubs.

Looking at your list a bit closer I really don't get how some of those Collingwood players get in there. I mean looking through that list it really is the cream of young talent but some of the Collingwood players look out of place. The players you've got in there:

5. Grundy - Seems high but I know you rated him really highly at the time of his draft. Fair enough that you just rate him that highly.
20. Witts - I think you rate rucks too highly but you wouldn't expect much from a young ruck so the fact he hasn't shown that much yet is a bit irrelevant. Again it's certainly arguable that he should be here.
28. Scharenberg - It's interesting that you don't include Menzel in your list anywhere based on potential injuries. Considering that I don't really get why you include a guy who has had bones taken out of both feet before he's even played an AFL game. But again 28 seems high but I know you rated him at the time.
31. Elliott - No argument here. Very good young player.

Personally you've over-rated a couple of those but I think you can certainly make an argument for those spots. The 4 outside your top 40 seem genuinely strange to me.

Langdon - The guy's been good this year. Really good actually. But he's playing VFL at the moment (don't really know why). In terms of a small defender Guthrie was Geelong's best player in finals last year and has now done well shifting to midfield but he doesn't make your list.
Williams - This one I really don't get. To me somebody like Shaun Atley is a far superior player defensively and equivalently good with ball in hand. Even a guy like Docherty has shown a lot more for mine than Williams.
Frost - He's been solid enough this year as a defender. But Tom McDonald is a similar player who's done similarly big jobs over a longer period of time and is younger than Frost. Both have a lot of work to do on the attacking side of their game.
Broomhead - I rate the kid. But there are a bunch of players around the league who have shown glimpses of real talent around the league but had very little match time.

It's your list and you don't have to justify them if you don't want but I'd be interested to know what sets those 4 ahead of a bunch of guys who haven't made your list. Guys like Menzel, Neale, Caddy, Guthrie, Atley, Green, Brad Hill and Hrovat haven't made the list despite all doing a fair bit more than those 4. Pretty much every player you named were either very highly rated or they're guys who have done a heap in their few years in the system. In comparison late draft picks like Williams and Frost who haven't done anywhere near as much as other late draftees in the list (Dahlhaus for example) really look out of place.

 

[Knightmare]

Looking at your list a bit closer I really don't get how some of those Collingwood players get in there. I mean looking through that list it really is the cream of young talent but some of the Collingwood players look out of place. The players you've got in there:

5. Grundy - Seems high but I know you rated him really highly at the time of his draft. Fair enough that you just rate him that highly.
20. Witts - I think you rate rucks too highly but you wouldn't expect much from a young ruck so the fact he hasn't shown that much yet is a bit irrelevant. Again it's certainly arguable that he should be here.
28. Scharenberg - It's interesting that you don't include Menzel in your list anywhere based on potential injuries. Considering that I don't really get why you include a guy who has had bones taken out of both feet before he's even played an AFL game. But again 28 seems high but I know you rated him at the time.
31. Elliott - No argument here. Very good young player.

Personally you've over-rated a couple of those but I think you can certainly make an argument for those spots. The 4 outside your top 40 seem genuinely strange to me.

Langdon - The guy's been good this year. Really good actually. But he's playing VFL at the moment (don't really know why). In terms of a small defender Guthrie was Geelong's best player in finals last year and has now done well shifting to midfield but he doesn't make your list.
Williams - This one I really don't get. To me somebody like Shaun Atley is a far superior player defensively and equivalently good with ball in hand. Even a guy like Docherty has shown a lot more for mine than Williams.
Frost - He's been solid enough this year as a defender. But Tom McDonald is a similar player who's done similarly big jobs over a longer period of time and is younger than Frost. Both have a lot of work to do on the attacking side of their game.
Broomhead - I rate the kid. But there are a bunch of players around the league who have shown glimpses of real talent around the league but had very little match time.

It's your list and you don't have to justify them if you don't want but I'd be interested to know what sets those 4 ahead of a bunch of guys who haven't made your list. Guys like Menzel, Neale, Caddy, Guthrie, Atley, Green, Brad Hill and Hrovat haven't made the list despite all doing a fair bit more than those 4. Pretty much every player you named were either very highly rated or they're guys who have done a heap in their few years in the system. In comparison late draft picks like Williams and Frost who haven't done anywhere near as much as other late draftees in the list (Dahlhaus for example) really look out of place.

To be frank I didn't look closely at the list so it's not going to be flawless.

Grundy and Witts I evaluate as having the scope to be top 5 ruckmen in the game with Grundy the next best after Naitanui. They'll take their time to reach that level but both are showing strong upward development and showing scope to play good footy but through the ruck and up forward. If you ask me today do I want either as my ruckmen to win a final. I'd answer with a firm no. But when they hit their mid 20s I really like their chances to dominate.

Scharenberg has missed time this year and has only just returned to the VFL. He was seen if not for his ankle issues coming into the draft last year as the second best talent and missing his first season I'm not going to change my projection of his career until I see him play for a least one season at AFL level. I anticipate round 1, 2015 he'll be best 22 and probably come pretty close to winning the rising star assume he has a strong preseason and remains healthy.

Elliott is a near All Australian quality forward this season and has a chance to be in the best 40 this year. He's been the third or fourth best performed for Collingwood this season. When you're performing that strongly that early in your career you're in that conversation. He's showing strong upward growth from year to year so it's not out of the question that he's thereabouts.

Langdon this year also looks really good. He's a top 3-5 performer this year of the first year players. His growth has been strong and upward so he can be one of the better players to come out of this group. Very well performed based on the one year sample size for someone so young.

Williams as a stopper is terrific. Terrible kick. But he'll beat his guy consistently, provides run but what makes him special is his ability to win the ground balls better than anyone in the game. He reacts quicker than anyone and has rare power over the ball. He has the scope to push into the midfield later on in his career and has some nice evasiveness to him in traffic. Don't sleep on him. Finished 7th in the Pies B+F last year so he's better than just handy.

Frost as a key defender has started surprisingly fast. Usually takes talls longer to establish themselves. Like Williams, poor kick. But very athletic and can beat his guy.

Broomhead is a good one. For those 90s Pies fans he has some Paul Williams. Exceptional talent who hasn't had as much senior AFL exposure as he probably should. Excellent skill level, has some pace and evasiveness, wins his own ball and can play midfield or forward well. I'm anticipating he breaks out next season to become one of Collingwood's better players.


The sad thing from a Collingwood perspective is all these players today are among Collingwood's better players and I'd list all as being within the clubs best 15/16 players. The issue at Collingwood is zero growth of the middle age players and the premature declines of the veterans. That's why the list looks so different to the successful 2010+2011 teams. All those veterans have declined to irrelevance and those mid career guys have all failed to continue taking further steps forward.
Collingwood's usefulness today is in developing young talent as essentially an effective development academy but not a club I expect to see achieve the significant success we've seen in what is now years past.

 

[TradeDraft]

I'd almost guarantee Grundy and Witts won't end up being top 20 players.

One maybe, but definitely not two.

Neither are agile enough to hold down a key position post and play their best footy in the ruck floating forward. They both can't do that in the same side.

Grundy is Very Athletic and Very Mobile.

Here him Kicking a Goal like a Midfielder in the VFL:



Some Strong Marks Here:

 

[TradeDraft]

Grundy and Witts I evaluate as having the scope to be top 5 ruckmen in the game with Grundy the next best after Naitanui. They'll take their time to reach that level but both are showing strong upward development and showing scope to play good footy but through the ruck and up forward. If you ask me today do I want either as my ruckmen to win a final. I'd answer with a firm no. But when they hit their mid 20s I really like their chances to dominate.

Agree - They have shown at times that Both Witts and Grundy can Dominate but still a bit to go before they can play Constantly at a Higher Level

I see Witts being a Good Ruckman in Mid 20’s where I can see Grundy Dominating and even possibly being the Best Ruckman in the League in his Mid 20’s hitting his Prime

 

[Skippos]

I reckon Witts has more upside than Grundy. The things he's capable of doing and the small flashes he shows are pretty ****ing good but become ridiculous when you consider he's 209cm. Witts at 200cm meh, but those extra 3-4 inches just give him a massive head start.

That said I also think Grundy's more likely to be the better player - a safer bet, just not the ridiculously high ceiling Witts has.

If Witts can get a >10cm vertical leap and packs on a bit of extra weight (as well as the willingness to use it) he could quite possibly be battling Naitanui for the 'ruck of the generation' a bit like Cox and Sandi have done over the last 5-10 years.

 

[TradeDraft]

I reckon Witts has more upside than Grundy. The things he's capable of doing and the small flashes he shows are pretty ******* good but become ridiculous when you consider he's 209cm. Witts at 200cm meh, but those extra 3-4 inches just give him a massive head start.

That said I also think Grundy's more likely to be the better player - a safer bet, just not the ridiculously high ceiling Witts has.

If Witts can get a >10cm vertical leap and packs on a bit of extra weight (as well as the willingness to use it) he could quite possibly be battling Naitanui for the 'ruck of the generation' a bit like Cox and Sandi have done over the last 5-10 years.

What about the Big American Mason Cox’s?

I don’t agree with you about Witts. I just have not seen the Flashes that I have read some people say that he is going to be Special. I put some Video’s up on Grundy that really Excited Me.

Can you explain more what are these Flashes that Witts shows that get people to think he can be a Superstar Ruckman?

Also having Both Grundy and Witts in the same team could be a Scary Thought for Opposition Teams

 

[Skippos]

What about the Big American Mason Cox’s?

I don’t agree with you about Witts. I just have not seen the Flashes that I have read some people say that he is going to be Special. I put some Video’s up on Grundy that really Excited Me.

Can you explain more what are these Flashes that Witts shows that get people to think he can be a Superstar Ruckman?

Also having Both Grundy and Witts in the same team could be a Scary Thought for Opposition Teams

I haven't seen enough footage of Mason Cox but given the age he's starting at and the time it's taken Wallace at NM and looks to be taking Mitchell/Holmes at Syd/StK to be even pushing for selection (coupled with the fact that Cox's athletic testing wasn't great compared to the other americans, it was just his height that really put him on the radar) and I'd rate him as a 2-5% chance of ever being relevant.

With Witts
- He's able to execute high degree of difficulty penetrating passes by foot that blokes his high cannot. The consistency isn't there but at his best, his footskills are better than any other ruck's IMO.
- His forward IQ is exceptional for a big man. In general he leads to the right places and is able to create some separation with surprisingly reasonable burst speed. His goals forward aren't through being bigger and taller than everyone else (see: Max Gawn/Naitanui/Sandi etc.) but through genuine ability forward, something I think only Lycett and Witts as ruckmen really have in the league. At 209/113 and given most rucks develop that size and ability to clunk big contested grabs around 24-26 if he does develop that and learns to use that 209cm frame to his advantage he could be a very reasonable forward as he's already got a massive point of difference compared to most.
- His followup work is, when motivated, exceptional
- His tackling is not effective because he's bigger and stronger (like most rucks) but because he's a technically sound and smart tackler, the fact that he's got 113 kilos behind him only serves inflict more damage.
- His movement is like that of a 195-198cm bloke, not a 209cm bloke. He can change direction and control his weight and where it goes far better than most normal sized rucks
- He reads the play well and provides a solid link up option around the ground. Not Sam Jacobs-esque but in the same vein.

He's got forward ability like Lycett/Sinclair. He's got potential as an outside linkup target like Jacobs and his follow up efforts and tackling aren't dissimilar to Mumford's. At 209cm he'll always be able to compete at the tap but naturally has a head start, just needs to work on the tactical/physical aspects of ruckwork and jumping which, at 21 nearly 22, is far from finished. Most current established ruckmen weren't impacting like Witts has at his age too, which, when considering Witts' height (I personally believe that 'in general' the taller, the longer you'll take to develop) and age at which he started the game is a pretty good achievement (though the same can be said for Grundy. he started before Witts but still was very late, I remember watching Brodie out at Unley Jets when he was new to the game run around and drop mark after mark. Just had absolutely no clue, was the definition of a headless chook)

I look at Max Gawn this year who's a year older than Witts (and not in the same calibur both now and in the future) and just how poor he was at the tap last year. Despite being 208cm it just hadn't come together and he was comprehensively beaten nearly every week. This year he breaks even or wins. His major improvement has been in his tapwork from 21 -> 22. I'd be hoping Witts could, over the off season, do a 'basketball-esque' jump training program and really come out next year and impact the ruck more. Couple that with the weight he's still lacking (I think he's physically less developed than Grundy) and there's significant physical/athletic upside too.

Just a gut - and with Witts a lot of it depends on his mental side, but I think he's got so much going for him it'd be a real disappointment if he didn't become one of the game's best ruckmen.

 

[TradeDraft]

I haven't seen enough footage of Mason Cox but given the age he's starting at and the time it's taken Wallace at NM and looks to be taking Mitchell/Holmes at Syd/StK to be even pushing for selection (coupled with the fact that Cox's athletic testing wasn't great compared to the other americans, it was just his height that really put him on the radar) and I'd rate him as a 2-5% chance of ever being relevant.

With Witts
- He's able to execute high degree of difficulty penetrating passes by foot that blokes his high cannot. The consistency isn't there but at his best, his footskills are better than any other ruck's IMO.
- His forward IQ is exceptional for a big man. In general he leads to the right places and is able to create some separation with surprisingly reasonable burst speed. His goals forward aren't through being bigger and taller than everyone else (see: Max Gawn/Naitanui/Sandi etc.) but through genuine ability forward, something I think only Lycett and Witts as ruckmen really have in the league. At 209/113 and given most rucks develop that size and ability to clunk big contested grabs around 24-26 if he does develop that and learns to use that 209cm frame to his advantage he could be a very reasonable forward as he's already got a massive point of difference compared to most.
- His followup work is, when motivated, exceptional
- His tackling is not effective because he's bigger and stronger (like most rucks) but because he's a technically sound and smart tackler, the fact that he's got 113 kilos behind him only serves inflict more damage.
- His movement is like that of a 195-198cm bloke, not a 209cm bloke. He can change direction and control his weight and where it goes far better than most normal sized rucks
- He reads the play well and provides a solid link up option around the ground. Not Sam Jacobs-esque but in the same vein.

He's got forward ability like Lycett/Sinclair. He's got potential as an outside linkup target like Jacobs and his follow up efforts and tackling aren't dissimilar to Mumford's. At 209cm he'll always be able to compete at the tap but naturally has a head start, just needs to work on the tactical/physical aspects of ruckwork and jumping which, at 21 nearly 22, is far from finished. Most current established ruckmen weren't impacting like Witts has at his age too, which, when considering Witts' height (I personally believe that 'in general' the taller, the longer you'll take to develop) and age at which he started the game is a pretty good achievement (though the same can be said for Grundy. he started before Witts but still was very late, I remember watching Brodie out at Unley Jets when he was new to the game run around and drop mark after mark. Just had absolutely no clue, was the definition of a headless chook)

I look at Max Gawn this year who's a year older than Witts (and not in the same calibur both now and in the future) and just how poor he was at the tap last year. Despite being 208cm it just hadn't come together and he was comprehensively beaten nearly every week. This year he breaks even or wins. His major improvement has been in his tapwork from 21 -> 22. I'd be hoping Witts could, over the off season, do a 'basketball-esque' jump training program and really come out next year and impact the ruck more. Couple that with the weight he's still lacking (I think he's physically less developed than Grundy) and there's significant physical/athletic upside too.

Just a gut - and with Witts a lot of it depends on his mental side, but I think he's got so much going for him it'd be a real disappointment if he didn't become one of the game's best ruckmen.

Thank you for the Explanation.

Be Fantastic for Collingwood if you are Correct

My Biggest and Major worry is that he does not really Jump much and does not get much off the Ground.

Shows how far Grundy and Witts have come from being late Starters to AFL

 

[Lefthanded]

For an updated 2010-2013 top 40. Without spending any significant time on it I'd go with:
*I'm sure I've missed a few but these are the guys who come to mind.. (I imagine someone will let me know if I've missed one or two guys)

Looks like a pretty good list to me. Cross referencing the list to 1st round picks the highest ones possibly missing are Sam Day & Will Hoskin Elliott. Based on games played perhaps also Reece Conca, Shaun Atley & Devon Smith. I don't know enough about them but would be curious where you see these 5?

 

[Footy Smarts]

To be frank I didn't look closely at the list so it's not going to be flawless.

Grundy and Witts I evaluate as having the scope to be top 5 ruckmen in the game with Grundy the next best after Naitanui. They'll take their time to reach that level but both are showing strong upward development and showing scope to play good footy but through the ruck and up forward. If you ask me today do I want either as my ruckmen to win a final. I'd answer with a firm no. But when they hit their mid 20s I really like their chances to dominate.

Scharenberg has missed time this year and has only just returned to the VFL. He was seen if not for his ankle issues coming into the draft last year as the second best talent and missing his first season I'm not going to change my projection of his career until I see him play for a least one season at AFL level. I anticipate round 1, 2015 he'll be best 22 and probably come pretty close to winning the rising star assume he has a strong preseason and remains healthy.

Elliott is a near All Australian quality forward this season and has a chance to be in the best 40 this year. He's been the third or fourth best performed for Collingwood this season. When you're performing that strongly that early in your career you're in that conversation. He's showing strong upward growth from year to year so it's not out of the question that he's thereabouts.

Langdon this year also looks really good. He's a top 3-5 performer this year of the first year players. His growth has been strong and upward so he can be one of the better players to come out of this group. Very well performed based on the one year sample size for someone so young.

Williams as a stopper is terrific. Terrible kick. But he'll beat his guy consistently, provides run but what makes him special is his ability to win the ground balls better than anyone in the game. He reacts quicker than anyone and has rare power over the ball. He has the scope to push into the midfield later on in his career and has some nice evasiveness to him in traffic. Don't sleep on him. Finished 7th in the Pies B+F last year so he's better than just handy.

Frost as a key defender has started surprisingly fast. Usually takes talls longer to establish themselves. Like Williams, poor kick. But very athletic and can beat his guy.

Broomhead is a good one. For those 90s Pies fans he has some Paul Williams. Exceptional talent who hasn't had as much senior AFL exposure as he probably should. Excellent skill level, has some pace and evasiveness, wins his own ball and can play midfield or forward well. I'm anticipating he breaks out next season to become one of Collingwood's better players.


The sad thing from a Collingwood perspective is all these players today are among Collingwood's better players and I'd list all as being within the clubs best 15/16 players. The issue at Collingwood is zero growth of the middle age players and the premature declines of the veterans. That's why the list looks so different to the successful 2010+2011 teams. All those veterans have declined to irrelevance and those mid career guys have all failed to continue taking further steps forward.
Collingwood's usefulness today is in developing young talent as essentially an effective development academy but not a club I expect to see achieve the significant success we've seen in what is now years past.

Thanks for the detailed reply. Interesting to hear their strengths from somebody who would see much more of them than I do. If you're right about those 8 then Collingwood are going to be pretty scary in a few years with Pendlebury, Beams, Sidebottom, Reid and Cloke still near their peak.

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on Geelong's draftees from that time. It looks like we've drafted well over that time but I'm not sure if we'll be able to get any (or enough) gun players to be premiership competitors with this group. i think there are a few Geelong draftees that could fight for a spot in that 65 but none that really stand out. Caddy, Guthrie, Kersten and Blicavs are the 4 who I think show signs that they could be better than just honest players. What's your opinion on those 4?