Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

I appreciate all your great work Knightmare as I find the information you provide on this thread to be very valuable but I can't help but wonder if you are overrating Heeney's ability. Yes he seemed quite good in the championships but he did not set the world on fire and he was playing against second division sides. Don't get me wrong, I think he is good but I also think that the media attention he has gotten recently has over inflated his value and had people assuming he is a better player than he actually is at the moment.

On Heeney he's generally rated behind Petracca and to some Brayshaw and I expect both to have stronger immediate impacts than Heeney, particularly with Sydney such a challenging team to break into.

I just like Heeney's scope to improve more. He's round one, season one ready if the opportunity is there but I see his development following a curve similar to that of David Swallow where with some seasons in the system he'll really take off and become a star in his own right.

I feel Heeney is largely being underrated in the most part and is badly underrated on bigfooty. He's got the best balance of inside/outside in this draft. He's an excellent athlete but then also has that strength and hardness inside. Skills haven't been spoken about enough and by hand and foot is terrific and has that vision/decision making combo. He's got the versatility to play forward or back if required but is a natural midfielder. Strong mark on the lead and in the air and can hit the scoreboard. Also while Petracca from a footballing growth standpoint has been a massive improver and one of the most improved given his change of role but Heeney to an even greater extent has shown that footballing growth going from a guy who was a possible first rounder but probably more a second rounded to arguably the best midfielder in the draft and in my view the best rounded and most complete midfielder. Love everything I've seen of him and Sydney have a real star to look forward to. I'm expecting Heeney continues his rapid improvement and to become the best midfielder in the draft. Outside of possibly Wright as a big I'm not seeing anyone else with close to the upside of Heeney. He's one I'll remain red hot on until draft day and have seen more than enough of his games to back in my current evaluation of his talent.

 

[SizeMatters]

Great work KM love the research you put into these.
Considering we have Hammellman signed up. After watching the Dees game Close is starting to get better and is looking dangerous not only up forward but around the ground. McStay was the surprise though he took some very good contested marks and kicked 3 (could have easily been 5 or 6 if not for OOTF and poor umpiring). He is 194cm and looks very good at ground level and in the air.

Lions might get pick 5. Say for instance Wright, McCartin and Petracca are all gone who do you think the Lions will target? Our midfield is a strength when fully fit just lacks a fast, skillfull midfielder with x-factor. KPFs don't seem to be as bad as we thought at the start of the season.

 

[Knightmare]

Great work KM love the research you put into these.
Considering we have Hammellman signed up. After watching the Dees game Close is starting to get better and is looking dangerous not only up forward but around the ground. McStay was the surprise though he took some very good contested marks and kicked 3 (could have easily been 5 or 6 if not for OOTF and poor umpiring). He is 194cm and looks very good at ground level and in the air.

Lions might get pick 5. Say for instance Wright, McCartin and Petracca are all gone who do you think the Lions will target? Our midfield is a strength when fully fit just lacks a fast, skillfull midfielder with x-factor. KPFs don't seem to be as bad as we thought at the start of the season.

Brisbane are winning a few so more wins is possible.

If pick 5 happens and Wright, McCartin, Petracca and say Brayshaw are all gone it's a tough decision.

Wright or Brayshaw if they're there would be the picks. Otherwise I'd be looking at one of Durdin, Goddard or Lever as those next best available. The bigs early draft are the sure things and would be my picks.

 

[blueiris]

Brisbane are winning a few so more wins is possible.

If pick 5 happens and Wright, McCartin, Petracca and say Brayshaw are all gone it's a tough decision.

Wright or Brayshaw if they're there would be the picks. Otherwise I'd be looking at one of Durdin, Goddard or Lever as those next best available. The bigs early draft are the sure things and would be my picks.

What about trading our pick 5-7 for a gun midfielder instead like Mitchell from Sydney

 

[Yoda_]

Wonder what your thoughts are on Dandenong Stingrays Jack Lonie, Rourke Fischer and Alex Harnett (who was dominating with the Champs guys out and unfortunately copped an injury but is returning next week).

 

[Knightmare]

What about trading our pick 5-7 for a gun midfielder instead

Clubs don't usually give up their gun midfielders but whenever you can get a gun midfielder for any pick I'd generally recommend doing it as picks are essentially lottery picks. You may strike gold, you may miss completely.

I'd take the known quantity if they're evaluated as being better than most who typically go in that draft range.

 

[captainrich]

im sorry if youve been asked this knightmare but what do you think of josh clayton and roos the potential lion father son draftees, I've heard clayton with his size and footy smarts is a pretty good option but have heard only bad things about roos, with poor disposal and no real standout qualities, is this correct and he may not even be worth say a rookie pick?

 

[RUNVS]

On Heeney he's generally rated behind Petracca and to some Brayshaw and I expect both to have stronger immediate impacts than Heeney, particularly with Sydney such a challenging team to break into.

I just like Heeney's scope to improve more. He's round one, season one ready if the opportunity is there but I see his development following a curve similar to that of David Swallow where with some seasons in the system he'll really take off and become a star in his own right.

I feel Heeney is largely being underrated in the most part and is badly underrated on bigfooty. He's got the best balance of inside/outside in this draft. He's an excellent athlete but then also has that strength and hardness inside. Skills haven't been spoken about enough and by hand and foot is terrific and has that vision/decision making combo. He's got the versatility to play forward or back if required but is a natural midfielder. Strong mark on the lead and in the air and can hit the scoreboard. Also while Petracca from a footballing growth standpoint has been a massive improver and one of the most improved given his change of role but Heeney to an even greater extent has shown that footballing growth going from a guy who was a possible first rounder but probably more a second rounded to arguably the best midfielder in the draft and in my view the best rounded and most complete midfielder. Love everything I've seen of him and Sydney have a real star to look forward to. I'm expecting Heeney continues his rapid improvement and to become the best midfielder in the draft. Outside of possibly Wright as a big I'm not seeing anyone else with close to the upside of Heeney. He's one I'll remain red hot on until draft day and have seen more than enough of his games to back in my current evaluation of his talent.

Thanks for that description. I am still somewhat skeptical as I remember not to long ago on the Swans board most believed he was talented but not a top talent in the 2014 draft. In fact some of us were even hoping we would get him for a second rounder. It has only been in the last 6 months or so that he has gone from a a pick in the early 20's to the best midfielder in the draft and it is just hard to imagine why as he seems to have a sort of workman like quality to his game rather than the sheer brilliance that you would expect from the top rated midfielder in the draft. Though in saying that Jude Bolton went very high in his draft and he was a very workman like player. Hard as they come but was never going to be a player who was regularly on the highlights reel.

 

[Knightmare]

Wonder what your thoughts are on Dandenong Stingrays Jack Lonie, Rourke Fischer and Alex Harnett (who was dominating with the Champs guys out and unfortunately copped an injury but is returning next week).

Wouldn't draft any of them personally.

Lonie is the only guy who has been discussed from that group as being draft relevant and he had some big games through the champs which got the media talking but I'm not seeing his point of difference. He's not freakishly quick. Not a great mark. Scoreboard impact poor. While he can at times do damage by foot it's inconsistent and can at times shank it. Looks like a good state leaguer but not an AFL standard footballer.

im sorry if youve been asked this knightmare but what do you think of josh clayton and roos the potential lion father son draftees, I've heard clayton with his size and footy smarts is a pretty good option but have heard only bad things about roos, with poor disposal and no real standout qualities, is this correct and he may not even be worth say a rookie pick?

Clayton is on the improve and is a draft chance. Not a top prospect but more someone who is a late draft possible.

Roos is tough as nails and a guy who has a crack. He isn't a flashy type and ball use I agree isn't ideal. May be considered as a rookie pick depending on the evaluation and confidence in the rest of the draft class.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for that description. I am still somewhat skeptical as I remember not to long ago on the Swans board most believed he was talented but not a top talent in the 2014 draft. In fact some of us were even hoping we would get him for a second rounder. It has only been in the last 6 months or so that he has gone from a a pick in the early 20's to the best midfielder in the draft and it is just hard to imagine why as he seems to have a sort of workman like quality to his game rather than the sheer brilliance that you would expect from the top rated midfielder in the draft. Though in saying that Jude Bolton went very high in his draft and he was a very workman like player. Hard as they come but was never going to be a player who was regularly on the highlights reel.

The evaluation of Heeney before this season is about right and I had similar questions of him at the time but he's just elevated his game in a big way. He's not Chris Judd, nor is he Gary Ablett or Scott Pendlebury. He's not in that class. But he can be Sydney's equivalent to David Swallow.

In a Sydney context I don't see him being as dominant as Josh Kennedy who is that franchise midfielder but Heeney can be a high level component to that midfield and one of those primary midfielders.

With Heeney it isn't so much sheer brilliance. He doesn't take over games with his influence as Ablett, Pendlebury and Dangerfield can but he's just a solid pro and a more solid pro than any of the other midfielders. He's got the production, he's got the well rounded game ticking the key boxes and he's got the upside not because of any one dominant trait or athleticism but because of his sharp upward improvement he's experienced these past couple of seasons which suggest to me he'll continue to improve sharply.

 

[Eons]

How about pick 5 and Paine for Beams KM? Sounds pretty good to me

 

[Knightmare]

How about pick 5 and Paine for Beams KM? Sounds pretty good to me

Not having a case of buyers regret with Paine there are you Eons?

I wouldn't be moving Beams for pick one. Going through the history of the draft and understanding of the draft not all that many number one overall picks are better than Beams.

You'd have to have Hanley and Rich on the table for Collingwood consider moving Beams. He's our number two player, an All Australian and Best and Fairest winner on a list that has had some strong top end talent.

Until Beams requests a move home he's a keeper and won't be on the trade table.

 

[blueiris]

Not having a case of buyers regret with Paine there are you Eons?

I wouldn't be moving Beams for pick one. Going through the history of the draft and understanding of the draft not all that many number one overall picks are better than Beams.

You'd have to have Hanley and Rich on the table for Collingwood consider moving Beams. He's our number two player, an All Australian and Best and Fairest winner on a list that has had some strong top end talent.

Until Beams requests a move home he's a keeper and won't be on the trade table.

Disagree we would have to have Rich and Hanley on the table to get Beams not that we really need him Think Tom Mitchell suit's our game plan better

 

[Knightmare]

Disagree we would have to have Rich and Hanley on the table to get Beams not that we really need him Think Mitchell suit's our game plan better

Brisbane definitely wouldn't have both Rich and Hanley on the table for Beams.

They're just the guys Collingwood would ask for in a trade if Beams is mentioned.

It's like if Brisbane asked for Pendlebury or Cloke. Same story - Rich, Hanley and in the case of Pendlebury and Cloke, Aish would also be asked for.

It's the difficulty with big trades. Clubs just don't trade them. No club wants to downgrade and any trade of Beams as with Pendlebury and Cloke in Collingwood's situation is a downgrade.

 

[Eons]

Not having a case of buyers regret with Paine there are you Eons?

I wouldn't be moving Beams for pick one. Going through the history of the draft and understanding of the draft not all that many number one overall picks are better than Beams.

You'd have to have Hanley and Rich on the table for Collingwood consider moving Beams. He's our number two player, an All Australian and Best and Fairest winner on a list that has had some strong top end talent.

Until Beams requests a move home he's a keeper and won't be on the trade table.

Paine looked like a decent pick up at the end of last year, still think you won that trade by a mile but there wasn't much we could have done. I can see Patty K being a pretty decent half forward. He was showing some great signs before we tried to turn him into a midfielder. Just can't see how Paine fits into our team going forward. Close coming on in leaps and bounds, McStay looked really promising on the weekend and Hammelmann. How do you rate McStay?

There's no way we'd trade for Beams, you would want a lot more than we could offer and rightly so. With our young group there's no rush to get him. By the time he's a free agent he will still be only 26 so would fit in perfectly with our developing group. Be nice if one wanted to come home for a change.

 

[Knightmare]

Paine looked like a decent pick up at the end of last year, still think you won that trade by a mile but there wasn't much we could have done. I can see Patty K being a pretty decent half forward. He was showing some great signs before we tried to turn him into a midfielder. Just can't see how Paine fits into our team going forward. Close coming on in leaps and bounds, McStay looked really promising on the weekend and Hammelmann. How do you rate McStay?

There's no way we'd trade for Beams, you would want a lot more than we could offer and rightly so. With our young group there's no rush to get him. By the time he's a free agent he will still be only 26 so would fit in perfectly with our developing group. Be nice if one wanted to come home for a change.

McStay I wasn't huge on at the time of the draft but he's showing some signs. Played well v Melbourne. Saw the game. And in those first few seasons it's about seeing guys show those signs and start to bring it more and more frequently over time with that consistency and greater level of dominance from year to year what you look for.

The key advantage for the Brisbane talls is the opportunity they're getting. Those young talls are getting regular senior AFL opportunities when other talls at other clubs often take those first four seasons to develop playing almost exclusively state league footy before they're thrown in because typically most clubs have established key position players who will outperform those young talls.

Historically something I've picked up on in following the development of so many of the talls is the strong correlation particularly with key position players and particularly those key forwards, those who play those positions at senior AFL level early career and often go on to have the best careers. They develop quickest because they're learning off and playing against better players than they'd be exposed to at the lower levels.

With ruckmen it's all about protecting them because of all the collisions and the shortening at the other end of the career which their bodies struggle with but with those who play key position it's not a major concern and really fast-tracks the development and it's a trend with the juniors where in projecting their senior careers, there is a strong correlation and advancement in the games of those talls most specifically who get the regular senior AFL exposure early.

So Hammelmann as an example next year. I'd be recommending Brisbane to play him early and often and expect the rewards with strong production from season three or four.

 

[Cori]

Hi KM. Long time reader first time poster. Just wondering if you think the Dogs will go for Sam Durdin if we end up with pick 5? He and Lever both look like a great fit but who do you rate higher for us?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM. Long time reader first time poster. Just wondering if you think the Dogs will go for Sam Durdin if we end up with pick 5? He and Lever both look like a great fit but who do you rate higher for us?

They're two possibles. Goddard possibly another if looking for a big.

Durdin I'm interested to see how he closes out the season. His form hasn't been as expected, how much is due to injury I don't know but I sense he's still not quite right.

Lever on the other hand has missed the season and for a different reason is difficult to evaluate.

My ideal is regardless of injury you take the best guy. I'd be inclined to say inconclusive at this stage as there is still more I want to see from Durdin and more I want to find out regarding how much influence Durdin's injuries have caused and where Lever is at and whether he had grown and some more information on how he's tracking.

Make me choose today. I like Durdin slightly more for the Dogs given he's got more scope to play forward. But I'd be still evaluating at this point before making a definite call between the two among the other possibilities.

 

[Cori]

I saw in another thread the possibility of Wright slipping to pick 5. Do the dogs snatch him up like a seagull on a chip? I've been hoping for a mobile athlete CHF rather than the centre square monster but Wright is something else.

 

[Knightmare]

I saw in another thread the possibility of Wright slipping to pick 5. Do the dogs snatch him up like a seagull on a chip? I've been hoping for a mobile athlete CHF rather than the centre square monster but Wright is something else.

Wright is a beauty. If he makes it to 5 he's a must take in my view.

He may be the best in the draft, he may not be. But he's a 203cm, 102kg monster with size and excellent movement for a guy that height/size. He can take a grab. He's got front half talent. And he's got the production on the board. Whenever you can get that with any pick you take that chance and give him the opportunity.

Wright's success I see as conditional on him playing as a forward as opposed to a ruckman but in the Dogs situation I see that as perfect with the ruck stocks strong but key forward stocks requiring an upgrade.

 

[footyfan97]

could switkowski, miller or johnannesen slip through to the rookie draft?
would love west coast picking one up for added midfield grunt

 

[kickit2Carlise]

KM Is there a reason why McLaren didn't get draft combine inv IYO . I noticed he got state though ,I thought for sure he was a lock for that invite . Noticed Goodyear played too on the weekend KM 30 touches do you think he is a high draft pick ? his effective kicks looks below 60 % a lot of the times and am wondering is that a technique flaw or just too rushed in traffic I understand he is an inside mid type but kicking is a concern considering how important possession is these days. Maybe a good fit for the Bombers to feed it out ?. Just another note don't see much on caprion Is he travelling well or not rated highly enough ?

 

[TwentyNine]

KM you've said a couple of times Lachie Weller will likely start on a flank before becoming a more regular midfielder - are there any other midfielder types you see as being likely to start their careers playing predominantly in the back/forward lines?

 

[nottenthagain]

How much will Sydney be laughing if they get Mills and Dunkley and they only cost them their regular picks in that draft!? Even if they had to give up all their picks in that draft it looks like they could be pulling off a robbery.

I'd give up all but the rookie picks for them. Eddie won't let us get away with that though....

 

[Coathanger]

K, I read today where Lamb has come up on the radar for the Hawks.
I believe he has some issues and after the Garlett fiasco,surely the Hawks don't need to take a risk.
What do you think?