Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

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I don't understand, on one hand your listing a bunch of guys as "only had one or two good years", "awful injury history only more recently established himself" "scrappy battler", yet half of the guys you've listed haven't even achieved a what you've originally stated yet, a good season.

Half of the guys being mooted are half way through their careers, you have to take them on face value now, sure you can speculate, but it's exactly that, a pure guess, I'm not sure how you could include 2015 in a list like this with any sort of confidence.

I could break down all of your comments, but it seems it would be fairly futile so I will cross the main ones; I wouldn't classify Langford's season as lousy, he averaged almost identical numbers as the year before.

As for Grundy, you are severely overrating him at this point, he's not in any discussions with the Mumfords/NN/Goldstein's in any facet of the game at the moment, "influence winning" is a fairly vague criteria. Adams is fairly comparable to "scrappers" like Greene and Viney.

As for De Goey, well, we can only go off what he's produced so far, Shiel/Prestia were far better players at the same age, I don't see the "Dangerfield without the explosiveness" tbh, "Dangerfield without explosiveness" is basically an umbrella of about 50 players in the league. He's well behind other midfielders around his age.

It's an interesting way to view things - just going so purely off performance. It's a way average Joe who attends AFL matches every weekend without having seen or even read about any of the juniors cab go about it. And that's not wrong, but just one way of seeing it.

I'm just going to flat out trust my ability to identify talent and back myself to beat simply what has been done.

It's like saying which career do you take Zac Dawson as an example who has played 146 games or would you back in Jacob Weitering as the recent number one pick to have the stronger career? I'm backing in Weitering as I'm sure most would.

And I'll approach young talent from the very same perspective. If a young guy has a better game as Weitering does in the above comparison I'll ride with them.

There is I will agree with you an element of uncertainty with picks. Picks as a rule are grossly overrated. Pick one most particularly, pick two. That's why pick for player deals so often go in the direction of the team getting the players.

Ruckmen don't hit their primes till the age of 25 and over so your argument of Grundy not being Mumford/NN/Goldstein yet is null. It's not a position in the modern game where you're going to see a 20 year old be the best at their position with Naitanui the closest thing at that age we've seen in recent times with his dominant contested ball winning ability at his age. Grundy is the best ruckman under the age of 24 though and the more impactful and overall most complete for his age. Mumford until the age of 23/24 was still developing into an AFL standard ruckman. Grundy as a 21 year old by comparison is already a best 10 ruckman in the game with only Goldstein/Mumford/Naitanui/Jacobs/Sandilands/S.Martin/Gawn better in terms of standard of performance today based on 2015 play.

As for Taylor Adams v Toby Greene and Jack Viney. I agree all three are in the same conversation. They can all find the footy (Viney to a lesser extent as he does not find outside ball as easily or at all really) and all three of them to varying extents are below average kicks. I'll take Adams over Greene primarily on the basis of being a harder worker and actually showing improvement, he'll continue to elevate his game whereas Greene just hasn't and doesn't look like he will as largely the same player he was in his first season. Viney isn't quite there yet but approaching and progressing but needs to add some more things to his game as the worst kick/scoreboard impact/outside accumulator of the three, as a contested baller and tackler though that's what he does better than both and he's a great character guy so I like Viney and feel he can continue to improve, even if it continues to be at what he does.

Regarding De Goey and my Dangerfield without the same explosiveness comment. Dangerfield is one of three with 15+ contested possessions per game last season and one of nine with 7+ clearances per game. He also offers scoreboard impact, the ability to take marks forward of centre. That's what De Goey can be. De Goey like Danger probably will I expect most likely win more ball as per Danger from contested situations and match his numbers across the board. Having both Treloar and De Goey. I back De Goey to be in time the better pro of the two. It only takes watching his work at a small few stoppages to realise just how dominating he can be when given his minutes on the ball, and when he gets consistent midfield minutes I'm confident he'll live up to where I rate him.
 
I completely understand and acknowledge that Knightmare has encyclopaedic knowledge of drafted players, and he has stuck his neck out to put his opinions on the line.

In this modern era of fantasy football, stats upon stats, inside outside ball magnets and the like, you can interpret the same player's current/past output in so many different ways.

One thing I know for sure....in all walks of life, as you mature, your potential diminishes/alters and reality of what you are doing with your (football) life sets in. In ten years' time you could look back on this discussion and, in all likelihood, there would be more misses than hits on the list.

Why? Because the premise of this list is similar to the "rider" in the John Wood voiceovered Industry Super ads:

*past performance is not indicative of future outcomes

Frankly, the fact Weitering can dominate in an under 18 TAC Cup competition and/or state carnival is not necessarily indicative of his future performance. So by all means speculate away, as there's no right answer here.....in my opinion ;)
 
I completely understand and acknowledge that Knightmare has encyclopaedic knowledge of drafted players, and he has stuck his neck out to put his opinions on the line.

In this modern era of fantasy football, stats upon stats, inside outside ball magnets and the like, you can interpret the same player's current/past output in so many different ways.

One thing I know for sure....in all walks of life, as you mature, your potential diminishes/alters and reality of what you are doing with your (football) life sets in. In ten years' time you could look back on this discussion and, in all likelihood, there would be more misses than hits on the list.

Why? Because the premise of this list is similar to the "rider" in the John Wood voiceovered Industry Super ads:

*past performance is not indicative of future outcomes

Frankly, the fact Weitering can dominate in an under 18 TAC Cup competition and/or state carnival is not necessarily indicative of his future performance. So by all means speculate away, as there's no right answer here.....in my opinion ;)

You're right and can't be dismissed in your comments here.

Go back to the '06 draft and who three years ago had Robbie Gray coming out as one of the better players? Looking at his continued injuries I'll put up my hand and acknowledge outright that I didn't at that point.

Tom Lonergan years on after that shocking kidney injury was delisted and rookied. Comes back and he is a different player, finding a new position for himself and becoming one of the very best key defenders in the competition. That's an astounding comeback.

These things happen so I agree with your perspective here where if we come back to things 10 years from now we'll absolutely all have different lists of who from which group was best, and that can happen certainly this early into careers in a span of a few rounds that things can change with injuries or sudden substantial improvements or whatever the case may be.
 

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It's an interesting way to view things - just going so purely off performance. It's a way average Joe who attends AFL matches every weekend without having seen or even read about any of the juniors cab go about it. And that's not wrong, but just one way of seeing it.

I'm just going to flat out trust my ability to identify talent and back myself to beat simply what has been done.

It's like saying which career do you take Zac Dawson as an example who has played 146 games or would you back in Jacob Weitering as the recent number one pick to have the stronger career? I'm backing in Weitering as I'm sure most would.

And I'll approach young talent from the very same perspective. If a young guy has a better game as Weitering does in the above comparison I'll ride with them.

There is I will agree with you an element of uncertainty with picks. Picks as a rule are grossly overrated. Pick one most particularly, pick two. That's why pick for player deals so often go in the direction of the team getting the players.

Ruckmen don't hit their primes till the age of 25 and over so your argument of Grundy not being Mumford/NN/Goldstein yet is null. It's not a position in the modern game where you're going to see a 20 year old be the best at their position with Naitanui the closest thing at that age we've seen in recent times with his dominant contested ball winning ability at his age. Grundy is the best ruckman under the age of 24 though and the more impactful and overall most complete for his age. Mumford until the age of 23/24 was still developing into an AFL standard ruckman. Grundy as a 21 year old by comparison is already a best 10 ruckman in the game with only Goldstein/Mumford/Naitanui/Jacobs/Sandilands/S.Martin/Gawn better in terms of standard of performance today based on 2015 play.

As for Taylor Adams v Toby Greene and Jack Viney. I agree all three are in the same conversation. They can all find the footy (Viney to a lesser extent as he does not find outside ball as easily or at all really) and all three of them to varying extents are below average kicks. I'll take Adams over Greene primarily on the basis of being a harder worker and actually showing improvement, he'll continue to elevate his game whereas Greene just hasn't and doesn't look like he will as largely the same player he was in his first season. Viney isn't quite there yet but approaching and progressing but needs to add some more things to his game as the worst kick/scoreboard impact/outside accumulator of the three, as a contested baller and tackler though that's what he does better than both and he's a great character guy so I like Viney and feel he can continue to improve, even if it continues to be at what he does.

Regarding De Goey and my Dangerfield without the same explosiveness comment. Dangerfield is one of three with 15+ contested possessions per game last season and one of nine with 7+ clearances per game. He also offers scoreboard impact, the ability to take marks forward of centre. That's what De Goey can be. De Goey like Danger probably will I expect most likely win more ball as per Danger from contested situations and match his numbers across the board. Having both Treloar and De Goey. I back De Goey to be in time the better pro of the two. It only takes watching his work at a small few stoppages to realise just how dominating he can be when given his minutes on the ball, and when he gets consistent midfield minutes I'm confident he'll live up to where I rate him.

Having watched a lot of Treloar his big negative is that he is not a two way runner and picks and chooses when to get involved.

He is silk and has sublime skill, pace, and vision but the number of times you see him shuttle running when others are flat chat is alarming. I foresee many a Buckley tomato head like explosion at Treloar's moody efforts.Will excite and frustrate.

For consistent effort I think De Goey will be the better as he seems very professional and gives decent effort to defence. Treloar is the ultimate professional in terms of preparation but he needs to work harder defensively to be absolute grade 1 imho.

Greene has an incredible ability to get the ball so his running ability and work rate in attack is unquestioned. His defence is ok and his kicking is very patchy. Has a crack though and I'd rate him on par with Adams.
 
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I agree pick 1 is grossly overstated. Most International codes such as NFL cannot draft players until they are 21 - NFL - 3 clear years from our year 12 equivalent. Their drafting is a walk in the park compared to ours as their kids are more developed ect when picked and therefore making for less subjectivity. That is why a 'lottery' for pick 1 is not really an issue - there is an element of luck anyway. Most of the time you can get a better player with a lower pick.
We will not increase our draft age in the foreseeable future as there would likely be a leakage of talent to other codes.
That is why drafting is so important and it is still underrated. The Dees seem to have drafted well since Taylor came on board compared to before. A highly skilled drafter or a bit of luck? I like to think he has what it takes. very important but the drafters have to give them real talent not Sows' ears. Roos has mentioned the 'talent' word many times especially when explaining why we have just been mauled by the Hawks or another top team.
 
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As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown

Is Liberatore purely so low due to the knee? I can't see how guys like Langford can be ahead of him. He is a best and fairest winner who prior to injury was in the top few clearance players in the league
 
hi KM, a kid named joel perry-warren mentioned in AFL prospectus as potential academy prospect for 2016 draft along with jacob allison, i have never heard of him and not much information on him coming to light on lions BF board. have you heard of or seen him play? if so what are your thoughts on his style/potential? thanks.
 
Knightmare you certainly know your stuff mate.
West Adelaide have just signed a lad from the Bushrangers, Murray Waite can't find too much about him.
Second in the best and fairest last year and not very tall is about all the only information I can gleam without trolling through hundreds of pages of posts.
A quick run down on his game would be appreciated.
 
hi KM, a kid named joel perry-warren mentioned in AFL prospectus as potential academy prospect for 2016 draft along with jacob allison, i have never heard of him and not much information on him coming to light on lions BF board. have you heard of or seen him play? if so what are your thoughts on his style/potential? thanks.

Haven't seen any of Perry-Warren. Don't believe he has played any NEAFL yet or through the u18 championships last year.

In saying that I understand he went pretty well through the u16 championships previously but would certainly be behind Allison who is one of this years best prospects.

Knightmare you certainly know your stuff mate.
West Adelaide have just signed a lad from the Bushrangers, Murray Waite can't find too much about him.
Second in the best and fairest last year and not very tall is about all the only information I can gleam without trolling through hundreds of pages of posts.
A quick run down on his game would be appreciated.

Waite is a good get.

He has some explosive pace to him and really nice agility that he uses well through the midfield. Skills are pretty good. Finds a reasonably amount of the ball and was one of Murray's better players last year and I believe runner up in their B+F.
 
Haven't seen any of Perry-Warren. Don't believe he has played any NEAFL yet or through the u18 championships last year.

In saying that I understand he went pretty well through the u16 championships previously but would certainly be behind Allison who is one of this years best prospects.



Waite is a good get.

He has some explosive pace to him and really nice agility that he uses well through the midfield. Skills are pretty good. Finds a reasonably amount of the ball and was one of Murray's better players last year and I believe runner up in their B+F.
I'm more looking forward to Michael Hagan from West Adelaide. Loved his run and carry for the NT and his skill. I reckon he will dominate as a half forward rather then a defender at senior level.
 
I'm more looking forward to Michael Hagan from West Adelaide. Loved his run and carry for the NT and his skill. I reckon he will dominate as a half forward rather then a defender at senior level.

Hagan is another good get. Has the pace and at ground level has that rare cleanness. With development at that level can be good.
 
Pretty sure Hagan is not coming now, I think he's decided to stay in the NT this year.
His father played for West in the 70's and I was looking forward to seeing his son play here but not meant to be this season.
Thanks for the info on Waite.
Got quite a few players drafted last year ...Aaron Francis,Riley Bonner,Matthew Hayball (draft) and Will Snelling, Jonathon Beech,Tom Keough (all Rookie draft). We've had to find a few replacements. Murray Waite, Trent Stubbs and Zac O'Brien have been our name signings.
For the record I think,Hugh Haysman,Jack Agostino, Jaydn Brind and Errin Wasley Black (if he improves his disposal) are all a chances to be drafted this year.
 
Pretty sure Hagan is not coming now, I think he's decided to stay in the NT this year.
His father played for West in the 70's and I was looking forward to seeing his son play here but not meant to be this season.
Thanks for the info on Waite.
Got quite a few players drafted last year ...Aaron Francis,Riley Bonner,Matthew Hayball (draft) and Will Snelling, Jonathon Beech,Tom Keough (all Rookie draft). We've had to find a few replacements. Murray Waite, Trent Stubbs and Zac O'Brien have been our name signings.
For the record I think,Hugh Haysman,Jack Agostino, Jaydn Brind and Errin Wasley Black (if he improves his disposal) are all a chances to be drafted this year.

Still some good names there.

I haven't read of Hagan's intentions so I can't comment on where he may/may not be going. I'm just very aware of his play from last year through the u18 champs.

Haysman, Agostino and Brind were among those better undrafted SA boys and Wasley-Black as you said if he improves his ability by foot then maybe.

O'Brien from Brisbane will dominate a state league level and frankly is someone Essendon on playing ability should be taking as a fill in for the year, but in saying that I like what they're doing by going with veterans with a focus to get the vets to help their youth.
Stubbs in the NEAFL as Wasley-Black was previously for NT Thunder has also dominated at that level and will be terrific in the SANFL I can only imagine.
 

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As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown
Even with my Hawthorn supporter goggles on, and wth the 2014 finals in mind, Langford should not be on this list. He has a red hot go but his disposal and composure need a lot of work. For mine he is behind Smith, Hill, Howe and Hartung... and that is just at Hawthorn.
I can't help it if Collingwood draft the best young talent ;)

In saying that WBD I'll concede upfront have been every bit as good in recent years at picking young talent through the draft.

I might have to start up an Ask Knightmare thread or something along those lines on the Draft+Trading board if I don't get a 2016 draft thread happening.

Best midfielder from 2010-2015. It's a toss-up between Bontempelli and Wines for me at this stage. I'd probably lean towards Bontempelli of the two with Wines coming in more the developed and Bontempelli more the rapid riser who on upside may have the relatively further growth to come, as a late bloomer.

Who would I pick first from 2010-2015? Jesse Hogan for sure. As a key forward managing 44 goals and 134 marks! That's unheard-of special. I'd also be inclined to pick Jeremy Cameron ahead of Bontempelli and Wines.

As for a top 50. Just spent 20min putting this group together and unless I'm going to spend several hours comparing stats by ages/positions etc this is a decent enough rough but still probably pretty good top 50 from 2010-2015:

1. Jesse Hogan
2. Jeremy Cameron
3. Marcus Bontempelli
4. Oliver Wines
5. Patrick Cripps
6. Dyson Heppell
7. Jacob Hopper
8. Clayton Oliver
9. Tom Lynch (GC)
10. Joe Daniher
11. Brodie Grundy
12. Jake Stringer
13. Darcy Moore
14. Jordan De Goey
15. Isaac Heeney
16. Luke Parker
17. Tom Liberatore
18. Brad Crouch
19. Angus Brayshaw
20. Callum Mills
21. Chad Wingard
22. Jack Darling
23. Jacob Weitering
24. Tom McDonald
25. Dylan Shiel
26. Adam Treloar
27. Harley Bennell
28. Andrew Gaff
29. Dion Prestia
30. Jackson Macrae
31. Jake Lever
32. Harris Andrews
33. Jack Martin
34. Stephen Coniglio
35. Tom Mitchell
36. Luke Dahlhaus
37. Lachie Neale
38. Jeremy McGovern
39. Elliott Yeo
40. Bradley Hill
41. Cameron McCarthy
42. Tom Boyd
43. Paddy McCartin
44. Christian Petracca
45. Jack Billings
46. Jamie Elliott
47. Brodie Smith
48. Marley Williams
49. Jaeger O'Meara
50. Taylor Adams
Not even Hodge trying to put Wingards head through the point post could stop Wingard being the most dominant player on the field in Port Adelaide's win over the Hawks last year. Rioli was good in that game but Wingard was better (*in that game). Kicked 50+ goals last year, is dominant both on the ground and in the air. Wins his own ball and gets into space. If I was selecting a team from that list I'd pick him 5th.
 
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Not even Hodge trying to put Wingards head through the point post could stop Wingard being the most dominant player on the field in Port Adelaide's win over the Hawks last year. Rioli was good in that game but Wingard was better (*in that game). Kicked 50+ goals last year, is dominant both on the ground and in the air. Wins his own ball and gets into space. If I was selecting a team from that list I'd pick him 5th.

Somewhere in here I responded regarding a re-do where I would place Wingard with further thought.

From what I recall I concluded 5-15 for Wingard.

Would I have Wingard top 5?

For me no. Hogan, Cameron, Bontempelli, Wines and Cripps after that breakout year are my five. And that comes with valuing key forwards and midfielders more highly.

I'd probably settle with Wingard around 12.
 
1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Patrick Cripps
4. Jake Stringer
5.Jessie Hogan
6. Jack Macrae
7. Chad Wingard
8. Jack Darling
9. Ollie Wines
10.Tom Liberatore
11. Dylan Shiel
12.Joe Daniher
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Adam Trelour
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Tom Boyd
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Adam Treloar
26. Mitch Wallis
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Jagger O Meara
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Jake Lever
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Bradshaw
50. Ben Brown
 
1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Patrick Cripps
4. Jake Stringer
5.Jessie Hogan
6. Jack Macrae
7. Chad Wingard
8. Jack Darling
9. Ollie Wines
10.Tom Liberatore
11. Dylan Shiel
12.Joe Daniher
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Adam Trelour
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Tom Boyd
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Adam Treloar
26. Mitch Wallis
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Jagger O Meara
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Jake Lever
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Bradshaw
50. Ben Brown
Sorry mate but your bias is obvious.
 
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Bradshaw
50. Ben Brown

I won't take apart the whole list. But these last few left me wondering.

Trent McKenzie may not be a regular and I wouldn't be shocked at years end if he was delisted. He has regressed badly in recent seasons and no signs this offseason that he will turn things around.

Bradshaw? Daniel Bradshaw was one of the better forwards from the 00s but has retired some years ago now. You might want to think re-think who you actually meant at 49.

Ben Brown is very reliable in front of goal. He can have a career at AFL level. He isn't a top 50 player from 2010-2015 or 2010-2014 for that matter though. The desired outcome for Brown is that he becomes something like a taller Jay Schulz, and I'm not even sure he can quite become who Schulz has developed into.
 
According to these lists, Brisbane has had the worst draft in history for the last few years...

And there is no way Bont is above Hogan. Clubs would take a player of Hogans quality any day. Dominate forwards like him dont grow on trees.

It's a laugh really.
I wonder if Billings will jump from nowhere towards the top of that list by the end of the season. Probably a lot of others too.
 
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