Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Pykie]

You have a right to your own opinion, doesn't mean it should be excluded from criticism either.

But that list is fairly ludicrous, even if you can somehow rationalise Oliver and Hopper over someone like Wingard, how then is Petracca in the 40's under that same criteria?

I also think you've let the black and white glasses take over. Grundy @ 11, Marley Williams over Isaac Smith? De Goey over Shiel/Coniglio/Prestia?

Baffling really.

 

[Gunstall555]

You have a right to your own opinion, doesn't mean it should be excluded from criticism either.

But that list is fairly ludicrous, even if you can somehow rationalise Oliver and Hopper over someone like Wingard, how then is Petracca in the 40's under that same criteria?

I also think you've let the black and white glasses take over. Grundy @ 11, Marley Williams over Isaac Smith? De Goey over Shiel/Coniglio/Prestia?

Baffling really.

I think Knightmare does an excellent job at informing us about Australia's best young AFL talents, really puts in more effort than anyone else on bigfooty that I'm aware of (how many of us rip off his assessment of young players when doing mock drafts etc). With that said, I have also questioned his bias before generally when he is asked to rate young talent, he does seem to favour the young Collingwood talent over that of other clubs.

Sometimes he just has an opinion as well that has nothing to do with bias. I do remember one particular conversation I had with him when he rated Gleeson from Essendon above Brad Hill (this was just after the 2014 flag where Brad Hill had an excellent finals series), however he has now changed his stance regarding that based on the list he has just released.

We can also be biased, for instance with my Hawthorn coloured glasses on, I believe Dan Howe will be a better player than De Goey when it is all said and done. Most people would probably disagree with me and call me biased, but I make that assessment because I'm more familiar with Howe as a player since he's entered the AFL system than I am De Goey (who's only stand out game that I saw last year was against Hawthorn and I didn't really rate that game) and that I love what he's done in his very limited game time for Hawthorn.

 

[Pykie]

I think Knightmare does an excellent job at informing us about Australia's best young AFL talents, really puts in more effort than anyone else on bigfooty that I'm aware of (how many of us rip off his assessment of young players when doing mock drafts etc). With that said, I have also questioned his bias before generally when he is asked to rate young talent, he does seem to favour the young Collingwood talent over that of other clubs.

Sometimes he just has an opinion as well that has nothing to do with bias. I do remember one particular conversation I had with him when he rated Gleeson from Essendon above Brad Hill (this was just after the 2014 flag where Brad Hill had an excellent finals series), however he has now changed his stance regarding that based on the list he has just released.

We can also be biased, for instance with my Hawthorn coloured glasses on, I believe Dan Howe will be a better player than De Goey when it is all said and done. Most people would probably disagree with me and call me biased, but I make that assessment because I'm more familiar with Howe as a player since he's entered the AFL system than I am De Goey (who's only stand out game that I saw last year was against Hawthorn and I didn't really rate that game) and that I love what he's done in his very limited game time for Hawthorn.

As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown

 

[iBeng]

According to these lists, Brisbane has had the worst draft in history for the last few years...

And there is no way Bont is above Hogan. Clubs would take a player of Hogans quality any day. Dominate forwards like him dont grow on trees.

 

[Ambrosia]

As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

Nice list obviously far more weight put into proven performances than Knightmare's. Only query was why Will Langford so high?

 

[Pykie]

Nice list obviously far more weight put into proven performances than Knightmare's. Only query was why Will Langford so high?

Averaged around 20 touches a game the last 2 seasons, when you couple that with his 2014 finals series, I think he's done enough to earn that spot.

 

[CrippsyCream]

As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown

So you don't think anyone drafted in 2015 will be better than Ben Brown?

 

[Danger in Texas]

As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown

Don't get why O'Meara and Crouch aren't in there, despite injuries. On talent alone they are guaranteed top 25. Also don't get Laird, Swallow, Libba and Daniher being rated so low, and Hill and Langford being rated so highly.

 

[CrippsyCream]

Adding 4 players who are yet to play a single NAB Challenge game (let alone premiership match) makes the list lack credibility.

Also stating "if Melbourne get their player development right"....then Oliver could become a "franchise player" (WTF - is this the NBA?) disregards the possibility the kid could get traded, injured (anyone remember Anthony Morabito?) walk to another club after two seasons....so many different factors can impact on the ultimate output of a players' career.

I understand you took up the invitation to rate 2010-2015 but, frankly, until players have 3 full AFL preseason a under their belt, assessing their likely end of career worth is nothing more than educated guess work.

....and I'm sure Marley Williams would rather have 3 premiership medals at the end of his career than be ranked above Isaac here.

That's the whole point...

 

[Danger in Texas]

Ftr here's mine:

1: Marcus Bontempelli
2: Jeremy Cameron
3: Jesse Hogan
4: Luke Parker
5: Jake Stringer
6: Ollie Wines
7: Chad Wingard
8: Dyson Heppell
9: Dylan Shiel
10: Tom Lynch
11: Adam Treloar
12: Harley Bennell
13: Andrew Gaff
14: Lachie Neale
15: Dion Prestia
16: Isaac Smith
17: Brodie Smith
18: Jaeger O'Meara
19: Tom Liberatore
20: Patrick Cripps
21: Brad Crouch
22: Jeremy McGovern
23: Jack Macrae
24: David Swallow
25: Elliot Yeo
26: Tom McDonald
27: Rory Laird
28: Kade Kolodjashnij
29: Jacob Weitering
30: Brandon Ellis
31: Joe Daniher
32: Jack Darling
33: Josh Caddy
34: Cam Guthrie
35: Steven May
36: Zac Merrett
37: Jamie Elliott
38: Jake Lever
39: Jack Billings
40: Luke Dahlhaus
41: Stephen Coniglio
42: Mitch Wallis
43: Taylor Adams
44: Cam McCarthy
45: Harris Andrews
46: Jack Hombsch
47: Isaac Heeney
48: Angus Brayshaw
49: Jack Martin
50: Darcy Moore

Dom Tyson, Tom Mitchell, Brad Hill, Jacob Hopper and two surprising ones in Tom Cutler and Lachie Hunter were the unlucky ones for me.

 

[manny100]

I am a biased Dees member so I would have squeezed Jack Viney in the 50. Runner up B & F 2015 after missing 5 or so games injured. I hope Oliver becomes the best mid as that means we will have an absolute gun midfield including Brayshaw, Petracca and Tyson. When fit Tyson gets a heap of the ball but gets caught a fair bit on the break after possession. Not sure whether he lacks a little break away pace (Oliver has heaps) or whether his inexperienced teammates are unable to get into the right position to block opponents from tackling him???
I think the Dees drafters have learned there lesson regarding contested ball winners. Its common sense anyway. You get high picks because you cannot win games. To win games you have to get 'tough ball' first who then make the outsiders look good - the early insiders are those that get it and use it well - I picked that up from reading the Phantoms (KM)!!!!. Its the tough nut contested ball winners that do that.
I also hope in a few years these types of ratings will include Weideman!!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Top 10 2010-2014, not including 2015 as I haven't seen enough at AFL level obviously, some absolute talent there.

1. Marcus Bontempelli
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Jeremy Cameron
5. Luke Parker
6. Jake Stringer
7. Jaeger O'Meara (if he comes back the same)
8. Ollie Wines
9. Adam Treloar
10. Dylan Shiel

 

[Knightmare]

Would have Parker on par with Heppell.

Going through their numbers I'd agree with that. You could reasonably rate them in either order. In review I'd probably drop Heppell back a few positions.

Wingard at 21 boggles the mind.

I made my order with a relative positional weighting with midfielders valued more highly than forwards. Wingard can obviously be higher and on review would be. But that happens in a 20min attempt. On review where might I have Wingard? Probably around 5-15 would be correct.

Id take Jaeger about 4th or 5th out of the last half decade. Surprised he's so low Knighta, you think the injuries got him cooked?

Jaeger over those first two years looked incredible and I'm still expecting he has a strong career but for now I'll stand strong with O'Meara and keep him where I have him as I'm not confident in his knees and don't necessarily think as a result that he'll be able to elevate his game as far as he otherwise would have as a result.

If he had no knee trouble I'd have Jaeger clear top 10, but with the knees and understanding the severity, I don't think that outcome is realistic.

I'd have Kade Kolodjasnij and Steven May in there also.

Also Touk Miller came a close third in rising star as a 18yr old to Cripps and Hogan.

Shown more then De goey and Moore

Kolodjashnij could be in that order and may if he continues to elevate his game work his way into the top 50 from 2010-2015. He is on the edge.

May while a good key defender I don't believe deserving of top 50 for this list.

Miller received plenty of midfield opportunities last year due to all the injuries. On impact I anticipate several of his peers from the 2014 draft to rocket past him. Maybe Miller can be another Prestia for GC if things go right or perhaps a Lachie Neale equivalent, but my feel is while he has the leadership quality and work ethic is that he will fall short of that and be more like a top 100 from 2010-2015 rather than top 50. Top 50 suggests you're at least top 10 from your draft year. Miller due to early games and midfield opportunities has that case, but as a smaller midfielder without dominating attributes as many others have, I anticipate others to develop past him in time with others likely developing later.

 

[M Malice]

Knightmare has done what he was asked to do, rate how he sees the players from 2010 to 2015 drafts based on his personal opinion, he has also stated he is rating them on how he sees their career panning out. the other posters have in the main compiled their list on current form.

 

[Knightmare]

Knight - I don't get why you have rated someone like Smith below Hill. Hill is a good outside winger who hasn't really done anything too noteworthy yet. Smith is an AA HBF who is 1(?) year older. Not bashing Hill by any means, but I don't really get that.

Smith I agree has achieved more than Hill. In saying that Hill is five years younger.

You have a right to your own opinion, doesn't mean it should be excluded from criticism either.

But that list is fairly ludicrous, even if you can somehow rationalise Oliver and Hopper over someone like Wingard, how then is Petracca in the 40's under that same criteria?

I also think you've let the black and white glasses take over. Grundy @ 11, Marley Williams over Isaac Smith? De Goey over Shiel/Coniglio/Prestia?

Baffling really.

If I had a re-do I concede I would move Wingard higher. 50+ goals a year from a forward, and finding the ball he does. I concur a higher ranking for Wingard is justified and deserved.

Petracca while better than Oliver and Hopper as forwards I see as behind both as a midfielder.

I'm surprised that you are surprised at my rating of Grundy. Grundy is the best ruckman in the game of his age group and from the 2010-2015 drafts both on both talent and performance. He kicks goals on the move from outside 50m with ease, wins the ground balls and has the power that only Naitanui, Mumford and maybe Nicholls have to drags the ball forward but then also disposes of it cleanly. Grundy justifies his ranking through his influence, as arguably the only young ruckman in the game (23 or under) who directly influences winning with Nicholls probably the next closest.

Williams I will continue to rate over Smith (on career projection) due to Williams' dominating ground ball winning and 1v1 ability that makes him stand out v other players at his position. Smith by comparison doesn't have the ability to win his own ball, and being five years older, he presumably isn't around as long. So I feel completely justified in rating Williams ahead of Smith for an order rating projected career outcomes.

De Goey I'm also very comfortable rating as I do. When he gets regular midfield minutes with his ability to win such an extremely high proportion of contested ball through the middle, I'll back him in over Shiel/Coniglio/Prestia. De Goey is Dangerfield without the explosiveness. I'll take that the more dominating inside game when given the chance and De Goey as a taller mid who wins such a high % of contested ball has the scope to develop that on a higher level and those three.

As I said, I've no problem with his opinion, but it's an open forum, not a blog, so it's open for discussion, I think he's way off personally. Before anyone accuses me of jumping on him, I had a play around with it, this would be mine:

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Jesse Hogan
4. Chad Wingard
5. Luke Parker
6. Adam Treloar
7. Jake Stringer
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Olly Wines
10. Dion Prestia
11. Dylan Shiel
12. Harley Bennell
13. Isaac Smith
14. Tom Lynch
15. Andrew Gaff
16. Brodie Smith
17. Jeremy McGovern
18. Patrick Cripps
19. Lachie Neale
20. Brad Hill
21. Steven May
22. Jack Macrae
23. Luke Dalhaus
24. Josh Caddy
25. Jack Darling
26. Will Langford
27. Elliot Yeo
28. Tom McDonald
29. Jamie Elliott
30. Dom Tyson
31. Kade Kolodjashnij
32. Jack Hombsch
33. David Swallow
34. Tom Liberatore
35. Jared Polec
36. Toby Greene
37. Jack Viney
38. Zach Merrett
39. Mitch Wallis
40. Cam Guthrie
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Shaun Atley
43. Brandon Ellis
44. Luke Dunstan
45. Rory Laird
46. Stephen Coniglio
47. Billy Longer
48. Trent McKenzie
49. Joe Danniher
50. Ben Brown

That's a very heavy weighting towards what they've done as opposed to what they will achieve over the course of their careers.

Needless to say I don't agree with your list, with 10-15 players listed not deserving of consideration, even for a 2010-2014 version.

Or to elaborate on those I absolutely cannot make a case for.

Trent McKenzie? What a one year wonder. Terrific first season, pretty good third season. Defensive liability down back, footskills have been inconsistent, can't win his own ball and played to a state league standard in 2016.

Ben Brown is acceptable forward but would be closer to top 20 from his draft year, certainly not top 10! He is a sub 100 mark, sub 225 disposal, sub 35 goal a year forward. That's merely acceptable by position and we're talking about a 23 year old.

Shaun Atley remains unimpressive. Has pace but not a great kick, not a contested ball winner, not an elite stopper. Clearly you don't watch Collingwood given you rate Atley more highly than Williams on performance. Williams is not only better but clearly better than Atley given his dominance in 1v1 and 50/50 situations.

Similarly listing Longer but not Grundy further suggests to me just how little if any Collingwood you watch. Longer is a fine tap ruckman for his age. It would be nice to see him start winning some ball around the ground, following up better, tackling better or kicking more than a goal a year? Longer's position in a top 50 from 2010-2014 I cannot justify at all.

Will Langford had a lousy 2015 season given the strong improvement he demonstrated through the 2014 season. He can still have a long term career at AFL level and be a best 22 player for Hawthorn given he wins the contested footy at a high rate and has an overall very good two way game as someone who can negate an opponents influence and hit the scoreboard when he wants to. But for a 23 year old midfielder. Averaging less than 20 disposals per game? And averaging just two marks a game? That's plainly unacceptable by position for his age and a long, long way away from top 50 stuff!

As for others I struggle with. Josh Caddy is a good midfielder, but not a best 50 player. Laird has had one really impressive season but needs to back it up which he may, but having being in the system for several years now, I'd like to see more seasons like that before I give him top 50 level credit. Steven May and Jeremy McGovern that high is not at all right. McGovern has an awful injury history and has only in more recent years really established himself, you just hope more so than know beyond doubt that he'll be able to build on last seasons form. May is a good key defender, but not a great one as your positioning of him suggests. Brad Hill isn't top 20 and remains too outside and too inconsistent for that kind of credit. Dom Tyson isn't the 30th best from this group and at this stage being more around 50 would be more appropriate given his still only just these past two seasons growing achievements. Hombsch is an excellent key defender, but 31 is higher than I'd feel comfortable with. Same story with D.Swallow at 32 who around 50 would be more reasonably placed as per Tyson. Swallow in his career has only twice had a 30+ disposal game, he has a ways to go as one of the older guys from this group to justify such a high position. Polec has been awfully inconsistent and has only had the one strong year, he should not be on this list at all, good and all as his 2014 season was. Greene and Viney both have cases but with both more scrappy battlers who can win the footy but lack polish or weapons a position probably 50-80 is more appropriate. Then Whitfield and Ellis are too outside to really justify as best 50 players as two lowish impact guys, or in the case of Ellis an empty possession outside accumulator, not to say either aren't appropriate for AFL play, but not at this stage for best 50.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Smith I agree has achieved more than Hill. In saying that Hill is five years younger.

Sorry mate, I mean Brodie Smith.

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry mate, I mean Brodie Smith.

Smith is a year and a half older, so that's a slight factor in a comparison.

Smith by far and away looks best down back as a playmaker where his footskills can be best utilised. He was excellent in 2014, but through 2015 as you'll be well aware badly lacked consistency and didn't replicate his 2014 play.

I have them both in the same conversation overall. Different weapons but similar overall ability.

If you asked me from a who would I pick standpoint between the two, I'd be inclined to look at what I need more until one of the two really creates significant separation and shows they're clearly better.

Smith has had the better overall individual season with his 2014 season better than any season Hill has produced to this point. So that's the argument for Smith and he has chances this year to create some separation between himself and Hill. So I could pretty easily have flip them. But at this point in time I'm not seeing such a difference in terms of overall impact.

I am a biased Dees member so I would have squeezed Jack Viney in the 50. Runner up B & F 2015 after missing 5 or so games injured. I hope Oliver becomes the best mid as that means we will have an absolute gun midfield including Brayshaw, Petracca and Tyson. When fit Tyson gets a heap of the ball but gets caught a fair bit on the break after possession. Not sure whether he lacks a little break away pace (Oliver has heaps) or whether his inexperienced teammates are unable to get into the right position to block opponents from tackling him???
I think the Dees drafters have learned there lesson regarding contested ball winners. Its common sense anyway. You get high picks because you cannot win games. To win games you have to get 'tough ball' first who then make the outsiders look good - the early insiders are those that get it and use it well - I picked that up from reading the Phantoms (KM)!!!!. Its the tough nut contested ball winners that do that.
I also hope in a few years these types of ratings will include Weideman!!

Melbourne are starting to build a midfield group with all those guys (Oliver/Brayshaw/Petracca/Tyson/Viney) capable and very good midfielders. They all have cases as being part of this discussion, without any of them putting an ! next to their name as players who would be consensus selections for this list beyond doubt. They're all contested ball winners, so with time that group have the capacity at AFL level to achieve success together.

 

[Ambrosia]

Williams I will continue to rate over Smith (on career projection) due to Williams' dominating ground ball winning and 1v1 ability that makes him stand out v other players at his position. Smith by comparison doesn't have the ability to win his own ball, and being five years older, he presumably isn't around as long. So I feel completely justified in rating Williams ahead of Smith for an order rating projected career outcomes.
.

This still makes no sense to me. You say you place an emphasis on midfielders then select a bloke who may become a gun defender.

 

[T Factor]

According to these lists, Brisbane has had the worst draft in history for the last few years...

And there is no way Bont is above Hogan. Clubs would take a player of Hogans quality any day. Dominate forwards like him dont grow on trees.

Sadly I was just thinking the same thing

I think 2010 to 2013 is a bust for us but the 2014 group could still move into that list, it really shows why we have turned over our list so much in the last few years to be the youngest in the AFL.

 

[Knightmare]

This still makes no sense to me. You say you place an emphasis on midfielders then select a bloke who may become a gun defender.

I'll be more specific so as to eliminate any potential for confusion. I place a relative weighting towards onballers. And being even more specific onballers who can win their own ball to a high-elite level. And within that construct I value these midfielders even more highly when they have other weapons to go with it. Fyfe can take a grab. Danger has that explosiveness. Those dominant contested ball winners who have other weapons will receive the greatest props from me.

Smith is an outside type/outside runner. What he does is break the lines and run all day. He also hits the scoreboard. So he is highly effective in this role for Hawthorn. When it comes to winning the contested ball, that's not what he does. Leave that job to Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge etc and Smith as with Hill for Hawthorn does his thing on the outside.

 

[Knightmare]

Sadly I was just thinking the same thing

I think 2010 to 2013 is a bust for us but the 2014 group could still move into that list, it really shows why we have turned over our list so much in the last few years to be the youngest in the AFL.

Brisbane got a few pre 2010 (Rockliff/Hanley/Rich/Redden when he was at the club etc).

Brisbane's youth is looking better now with some better selections these past three seasons and some overall excellent additions in 2015 with that group highly impressive. Keays, Schache, Hipwood, Mathieson, maybe Skinner. Brisbane I speculate have found several there with that group.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Smith is a year and a half older, so that's a slight factor in a comparison.

Smith by far and away looks best down back as a playmaker where his footskills can be best utilised. He was excellent in 2014, but through 2015 as you'll be well aware badly lacked consistency and didn't replicate his 2014 play.

I have them both in the same conversation overall. Different weapons but similar overall ability.

If you asked me from a who would I pick standpoint between the two, I'd be inclined to look at what I need more until one of the two really creates significant separation and shows they're clearly better.

Smith has had the better overall individual season with his 2014 season better than any season Hill has produced to this point. So that's the argument for Smith and he has chances this year to create some separation between himself and Hill. So I could pretty easily have flip them. But at this point in time I'm not seeing such a difference in terms of overall impact.

Would without a doubt say that his lack of consistency was due to a concussion suffered in round 2 against your mob. He was arguably BOG in that game, and played a very good game the week before as well. The concussion wrecked him for a large chunk of the season, but he started to become a true weapon for us again late in the season. Agree that Hill has his positives - just think Smith is deserving of a higher ranking, and especially ahead of a guy like Hill.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Love the debate. For those of you up in arms about the inclusion of 2015 players in the top 50, the reason I asked Knightmare to include last year is he has already done a 2010 - 2014 top 50 in a different thread. I was keen, and others who have followed his astute assessments and extensive draft research for over 5 years will be as well, to ask him to put the 2015 group into that context.

Greatly appreciate your doing so Knighter. Knew it would create a shitstorm from some but the opinions it has provoked make really interesting reading. Your semi-expert opinion is greatfully digested for those of us who know how in depth your work on the draft since at least 2009 has been!

Cheers

 

[Pykie]

Smith I agree has achieved more than Hill. In saying that Hill is five years younger.



If I had a re-do I concede I would move Wingard higher. 50+ goals a year from a forward, and finding the ball he does. I concur a higher ranking for Wingard is justified and deserved.

Petracca while better than Oliver and Hopper as forwards I see as behind both as a midfielder.

I'm surprised that you are surprised at my rating of Grundy. Grundy is the best ruckman in the game of his age group and from the 2010-2015 drafts both on both talent and performance. He kicks goals on the move from outside 50m with ease, wins the ground balls and has the power that only Naitanui, Mumford and maybe Nicholls have to drags the ball forward but then also disposes of it cleanly. Grundy justifies his ranking through his influence, as arguably the only young ruckman in the game (23 or under) who directly influences winning with Nicholls probably the next closest.

Williams I will continue to rate over Smith (on career projection) due to Williams' dominating ground ball winning and 1v1 ability that makes him stand out v other players at his position. Smith by comparison doesn't have the ability to win his own ball, and being five years older, he presumably isn't around as long. So I feel completely justified in rating Williams ahead of Smith for an order rating projected career outcomes.

De Goey I'm also very comfortable rating as I do. When he gets regular midfield minutes with his ability to win such an extremely high proportion of contested ball through the middle, I'll back him in over Shiel/Coniglio/Prestia. De Goey is Dangerfield without the explosiveness. I'll take that the more dominating inside game when given the chance and De Goey as a taller mid who wins such a high % of contested ball has the scope to develop that on a higher level and those three.



That's a very heavy weighting towards what they've done as opposed to what they will achieve over the course of their careers.

Needless to say I don't agree with your list, with 10-15 players listed not deserving of consideration, even for a 2010-2014 version.

Or to elaborate on those I absolutely cannot make a case for.

Trent McKenzie? What a one year wonder. Terrific first season, pretty good third season. Defensive liability down back, footskills have been inconsistent, can't win his own ball and played to a state league standard in 2016.

Ben Brown is acceptable forward but would be closer to top 20 from his draft year, certainly not top 10! He is a sub 100 mark, sub 225 disposal, sub 35 goal a year forward. That's merely acceptable by position and we're talking about a 23 year old.

Shaun Atley remains unimpressive. Has pace but not a great kick, not a contested ball winner, not an elite stopper. Clearly you don't watch Collingwood given you rate Atley more highly than Williams on performance. Williams is not only better but clearly better than Atley given his dominance in 1v1 and 50/50 situations.

Similarly listing Longer but not Grundy further suggests to me just how little if any Collingwood you watch. Longer is a fine tap ruckman for his age. It would be nice to see him start winning some ball around the ground, following up better, tackling better or kicking more than a goal a year? Longer's position in a top 50 from 2010-2014 I cannot justify at all.

Will Langford had a lousy 2015 season given the strong improvement he demonstrated through the 2014 season. He can still have a long term career at AFL level and be a best 22 player for Hawthorn given he wins the contested footy at a high rate and has an overall very good two way game as someone who can negate an opponents influence and hit the scoreboard when he wants to. But for a 23 year old midfielder. Averaging less than 20 disposals per game? And averaging just two marks a game? That's plainly unacceptable by position for his age and a long, long way away from top 50 stuff!

As for others I struggle with. Josh Caddy is a good midfielder, but not a best 50 player. Laird has had one really impressive season but needs to back it up which he may, but having being in the system for several years now, I'd like to see more seasons like that before I give him top 50 level credit. Steven May and Jeremy McGovern that high is not at all right. McGovern has an awful injury history and has only in more recent years really established himself, you just hope more so than know beyond doubt that he'll be able to build on last seasons form. May is a good key defender, but not a great one as your positioning of him suggests. Brad Hill isn't top 20 and remains too outside and too inconsistent for that kind of credit. Dom Tyson isn't the 30th best from this group and at this stage being more around 50 would be more appropriate given his still only just these past two seasons growing achievements. Hombsch is an excellent key defender, but 31 is higher than I'd feel comfortable with. Same story with D.Swallow at 32 who around 50 would be more reasonably placed as per Tyson. Swallow in his career has only twice had a 30+ disposal game, he has a ways to go as one of the older guys from this group to justify such a high position. Polec has been awfully inconsistent and has only had the one strong year, he should not be on this list at all, good and all as his 2014 season was. Greene and Viney both have cases but with both more scrappy battlers who can win the footy but lack polish or weapons a position probably 50-80 is more appropriate. Then Whitfield and Ellis are too outside to really justify as best 50 players as two lowish impact guys, or in the case of Ellis an empty possession outside accumulator, not to say either aren't appropriate for AFL play, but not at this stage for best 50.

I don't understand, on one hand your listing a bunch of guys as "only had one or two good years", "awful injury history only more recently established himself" "scrappy battler", yet half of the guys you've listed haven't even achieved a what you've originally stated yet, a good season.

Half of the guys being mooted are half way through their careers, you have to take them on face value now, sure you can speculate, but it's exactly that, a pure guess, I'm not sure how you could include 2015 in a list like this with any sort of confidence.

I could break down all of your comments, but it seems it would be fairly futile so I will cross the main ones; I wouldn't classify Langford's season as lousy, he averaged almost identical numbers as the year before.

As for Grundy, you are severely overrating him at this point, he's not in any discussions with the Mumfords/NN/Goldstein's in any facet of the game at the moment, "influence winning" is a fairly vague criteria. Adams is fairly comparable to "scrappers" like Greene and Viney.

As for De Goey, well, we can only go off what he's produced so far, Shiel/Prestia were far better players at the same age, I don't see the "Dangerfield without the explosiveness" tbh, "Dangerfield without explosiveness" is basically an umbrella of about 50 players in the league. He's well behind other midfielders around his age.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Half of the guys being mooted are half way through their careers, you have to take them on face value now, sure you can speculate, but it's exactly that, a pure guess, I'm not sure how you could include 2015 in a list like this with any sort of confidence.

You are in a draft thread. The entire point of it, and the expertise of AFL recruiters, is in speculating/extrapolating what these kids will become. Of course it's a guess, but that's what the clubs are forced to do and why we get mixed results like Toumpas v Wines. Some are better at it than others through research and experience which is why their extrapolations are respected.

Anyway, I'm tilting at windmills.... Carry on....