Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Skippos]

Im interested to see the development in the draft crop of 2013 so I've decided to rank the top 10 on what they have shown so far. I'd like to hear other people's opinion as well. ( numbers in brackets are the number they were drafted at)

1- Marcus BONTEMPELLI (4)
2-Lewis Taylor (28)
3-Jarmen IMPEY (21)
4-luke dunstan (18)
5-luke McDonald (8)f/s
6-cam MCCARTHY (14)
7-jack billings (3)
8-Zach Merrett (26)
9-josh kelly (2)
10- Christian Salem (9)
(Patrick CRIPPS recent form could see him jump into the top 10)

If I was doing that 2013 draft again. My draft board without mulling for long, would look something like:
1. Bontempelli (4 - WBD)
2. McCarthy (14 - GWS)
3. Boyd (1 - GWS/WBD)
4. Cripps (13 - CARL)
5. Billings (3 - ST.K)
6. Dunstan (18 - ST.K)
7. McDonald (8 - NM)
8. Josh Kelly (2 - GWS)
9. Merrett (26 - ESS)
10. Taylor (28 - BRIS)

McCarthy and Cripps certainly at the end of last year weren't in my 10, but both have been big improvers putting forward strong NAB Challenge campaigns and have really come on strongly this H+A season. And Bontempelli has continued on from his late season dominance last season. Otherwise small bits of movement without anything major.

Aish would still be top 10 for mine even if he is playing like a spoilt brat
1.Bontempelli
2.Taylor
3.McDonald
4.Aish
5.Cripps
6 Honeychurch
7.Merrett
8.McCarthy
9.Billings
10. Kelly

Boyd would still be in the top 2 without DOUBT! The kid will be a gun and is going to take a while to develop, it is crazy to leave him off your list.

Boyd
Bontempelli
--------- Little daylight
McCarthy
Kelly
Billings
KK
Aish
McDonald
------- I like these players long term
Cripps
Merrett
Langdon
Dunstan
Taylor
Honeychurch
These guys depending on your thoughts could be ranked differently based on needs.

Given we're all doing it

1. Bontempelli
2. Boyd
3. McCarthy
4. Cripps
5. Billings
6. McDonald
7. Scharenberg
8. Gleeson
9. Kelly
10. Merrett
11-22 (Aish, Kolodjashnij, Dunstan, Cutler, Langdon, Taylor, Salem, Freeman, Acres, Byrne, Lennon, Sheed)

 

[dewah07]

Given we're all doing it

1. Bontempelli
2. Boyd
3. McCarthy
4. Cripps
5. Billings
6. McDonald
7. Scharenberg
8. Gleeson
9. Kelly
10. Merrett
11-22 (Aish, Kolodjashnij, Dunstan, Cutler, Langdon, Taylor, Salem, Freeman, Acres, Byrne, Lennon, Sheed)

 

[Skippos]

Just realised Gleeson was '12 not '13. Good one. Dunno how that slipped my mind, scrap him from the list.

Dunstan hasn't tracked all that differently to how I expected. I certainly thought he was going to impact early and make real strides before plateauing due to limited upside. Given that's how I evaluated him in his draft year and he hasn't deviated much from that, I'm not going to deviate from how I projected him to peak. I don't think he's got near as much improvement left as anyone on that list, so to me he's not a top 10 selection.

But I'm wary of hijacking KM's thread so I'll leave it at that!

 

[Zach Package]

Just realised Gleeson was '12 not '13. Good one. Dunno how that slipped my mind, scrap him from the list.

That can be forgiven, there will be guys in the 2020 draft class who look older than him already

 

[Seedsfan]

Schache at this stage.

Weideman was really impressive in the games for Aus

 

[God Save Max King]

Think a couple of these top 10s might be a bit too responsive to this year's play, Cripps has played 1 good game and 1 OK game, Kelly played much better games last year and is much more damaging. Kelly will be a gun, just not getting the same opportunity in a stacked midfield.

 

[Knightmare]

Weideman was really impressive in the games for Aus

Watching Weideman through the TAC Cup in his first three games this season. He has been lousy. 3 goals from his first 3 games. Yet to have more than 5 marks in a game this season. That isn't first round production for a key forward.

At this stage the hype surrounding Weideman has not been justified. He looks like a mid-draft selection at this point in time until he significantly amps things up.

I'm still waiting for him to take over games.

Think a couple of these top 10s might be a bit too responsive to this year's play, Cripps has played 1 good game and 1 OK game, Kelly played much better games last year and is much more damaging. Kelly will be a gun, just not getting the same opportunity in a stacked midfield.

I'd take Cripps with confidence over Kelly. No doubt in my mind. And here is why.

Cripps is a late bloomer. He grew 20cm I believe it was in his last two years in the u18s. That's big time growth. And looking at his play, the difference between last year and this year, it's night and day. So I figure based on this late growth (vertical/physical) and incredible rate of footballing development, he has a substantial improvement left to come in future seasons the way things are trending. And showing already in his second year that he is good for 55 contested possessions from 4 games. That's absolutely outstanding! Top 10 in fact for average contested possessions in the game this year and the youngest in that top 10.

As far as I'm concerned Cripps is Carlton's franchise player and Carlton's best midfielder today. He has passed Judd, Murphy and Gibbs by on performance. He is Carlton's Josh Kennedy equivalent and can have as great of an inside game.

Kelly is a very good outside mid with his endurance and footskills and he can find the footy. But there isn't anything I look at as particularly remarkable to suggest he will be among the best few from the 2013 draft. So as per draft day, I'm still not excited by him, as much as I'm certain he will be a very good pro, he is no franchise player nor a best few level player on a list.

So not only would I class Cripps as the better pro, but also I'd have them in a different class entirely.

Not to hate too hard on Kelly, but my message is don't sleep on Cripps.

 

[Seedsfan]

Watching Weideman through the TAC Cup in his first three games this season. He has been lousy. 3 goals from his first 3 games. Yet to have more than 5 marks in a game this season. That isn't first round production for a key forward.

At this stage the hype surrounding Weideman has not been justified. He looks like a mid-draft selection at this point in time until he significantly amps things up.

I'm still waiting for him to take over games.

But surely you have to take into account very strong performances against VFL sides. Shifter said he had 9 marks against the blues playing on the big stage at the G

 

[Knightmare]

But surely you have to take into account very strong performances against VFL sides. Shifter said he had 9 marks against the blues playing on the big stage at the G

All games count.

But more than one good week in a practice match is needed.

He has time. But I'm still patiently waiting.

He has time with the season ahead of him. But he'll have to show up and show up in a big way often at some time if he wants to be an early draft selection.

 

[God Save Max King]

Watching Weideman through the TAC Cup in his first three games this season. He has been lousy. 3 goals from his first 3 games. Yet to have more than 5 marks in a game this season. That isn't first round production for a key forward.

At this stage the hype surrounding Weideman has not been justified. He looks like a mid-draft selection at this point in time until he significantly amps things up.

I'm still waiting for him to take over games.



I'd take Cripps with confidence over Kelly. No doubt in my mind. And here is why.

Cripps is a late bloomer. He grew 20cm I believe it was in his last two years in the u18s. That's big time growth. And looking at his play, the difference between last year and this year, it's night and day. So I figure based on this late growth (vertical/physical) and incredible rate of footballing development, he has a substantial improvement left to come in future seasons the way things are trending. And showing already in his second year that he is good for 55 contested possessions from 4 games. That's absolutely outstanding! Top 10 in fact for average contested possessions in the game this year and the youngest in that top 10.

As far as I'm concerned Cripps is Carlton's franchise player and Carlton's best midfielder today. He has passed Judd, Murphy and Gibbs by on performance. He is Carlton's Josh Kennedy equivalent and can have as great of an inside game.

Kelly is a very good outside mid with his endurance and footskills and he can find the footy. But there isn't anything I look at as particularly remarkable to suggest he will be among the best few from the 2013 draft. So as per draft day, I'm still not excited by him, as much as I'm certain he will be a very good pro, he is no franchise player nor a best few level player on a list.

So not only would I class Cripps as the better pro, but also I'd have them in a different class entirely.

Not to hate too hard on Kelly, but my message is don't sleep on Cripps.

Fair enough, just let it be said that I'm not saying that Cripps won't be a good player for the Blues, just think that receivers are more valuable in the game. Yes Kelly still has some flaws and some areas in his game that need need work it I think Cripps has more, and I don't buy that big midfielders are necessarily better midfielders.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

km, who do you rate as the best mature aged ruck option in this years draft?

 

[Knightmare]

km, who do you rate as the best mature aged ruck option in this years draft?

Sam Baulderstone probably. Paul Hunter from the NEAFL impressed last year. Mark Kovacevic as an overager can play.

They're probably the three I'd say to keep an eye out for.

Sam Tagliabue in the VFL is probably the better option and also has his fans.

 

[GT619]

I hear sam skinner and tom Cole are training at carlton what are they like as players

 

[SizeMatters]

Has anyone here seen enough of Weitering to give us that can't see him live an idea on his athleticism? Hard to tell from small snippets but is he fast? agile? I heard he has a decent tank on him for a big lad.

 

[Knightmare]

I hear sam skinner and tom Cole are training at carlton what are they like as players

I suspect you mean trained with Carlton for a week over the preseason. The AIS boys do get one week placement at a club each during the preseason.

Skinner is a tall shutdown key defender. Cole a productive mid/back flanker.

Has anyone here seen enough of Weitering to give us that can't see him live an idea on his athleticism? Hard to tell from small snippets but is he fast? agile? I heard he has a decent tank on him for a big lad.

You are right Weitering has good endurance. Back at the end of 2013 he had a 14+ beep. So endurance is no problem. He is very agile for a tall, I wouldn't say freakishly agile, but excellent agility for a tall certainly. For pace I'd list him as average. Not a dinosaur but not freakishly quick. So he isn't someone where as an example if he played up forward he would necessarily breakaway from the defender when leading up to the ball, but he is someone who is willing with ball in hand to provide some run and carry.

So all in all athletically Weitering is good. It's not what makes him a sure top 5 selection, but for someone who projects to be picked in the first few, it's not something that would prevent you from choosing to pick him./

 

[Rancid Trogs]

Hey Knightmare - two questions:

1) your thoughts on Aaron Francis at this stage in terms of where he ends up as a player? Do you think of him as a 3rd tall or a genuine utility?

2) why the big drop for Kieran Agius between updates? Is he athletically or professionally too under-developed to be taken higher in the draft?

Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare - two questions:

1) your thoughts on Aaron Francis at this stage in terms of where he ends up as a player? Do you think of him as a 3rd tall or a genuine utility?

2) why the big drop for Kieran Agius between updates? Is he athletically or professionally too under-developed to be taken higher in the draft?

Thanks

Francis I'm still pretty open minded to. So I'm not prepared to set a cap on him at this stage. But he looks at this stage most likely to settle somewhere down back or possibly on a wing. But ask me again later in the season and I'll probably have a stronger opinion on where he is best suited.

Others are moving up my draft board on performance, Agius down on performance. It's a step forward that he is playing reserves footy this year but 11 disposals, no goals, 8 disposals, 1 goal and 7 disposals and 1 goal from his past three games isn't nearly enough for me.
He can recover and has the talent to recover, but he certainly needs to elevate his performance to ensure he gets drafted firstly, and secondly goes earlier rather than later.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Watching Weideman through the TAC Cup in his first three games this season. He has been lousy. 3 goals from his first 3 games. Yet to have more than 5 marks in a game this season. That isn't first round production for a key forward.

At this stage the hype surrounding Weideman has not been justified. He looks like a mid-draft selection at this point in time until he significantly amps things up.

I'm still waiting for him to take over games.



I'd take Cripps with confidence over Kelly. No doubt in my mind. And here is why.

Cripps is a late bloomer. He grew 20cm I believe it was in his last two years in the u18s. That's big time growth. And looking at his play, the difference between last year and this year, it's night and day. So I figure based on this late growth (vertical/physical) and incredible rate of footballing development, he has a substantial improvement left to come in future seasons the way things are trending. And showing already in his second year that he is good for 55 contested possessions from 4 games. That's absolutely outstanding! Top 10 in fact for average contested possessions in the game this year and the youngest in that top 10.

As far as I'm concerned Cripps is Carlton's franchise player and Carlton's best midfielder today. He has passed Judd, Murphy and Gibbs by on performance. He is Carlton's Josh Kennedy equivalent and can have as great of an inside game.

Kelly is a very good outside mid with his endurance and footskills and he can find the footy. But there isn't anything I look at as particularly remarkable to suggest he will be among the best few from the 2013 draft. So as per draft day, I'm still not excited by him, as much as I'm certain he will be a very good pro, he is no franchise player nor a best few level player on a list.

So not only would I class Cripps as the better pro, but also I'd have them in a different class entirely.

Not to hate too hard on Kelly, but my message is don't sleep on Cripps.

As a diehard Giants fan I have to say this assessment of Kelly is 100% on the money. Nailed it KM

 

[Pkbaldy]

Hey KM, just wondering what your opinion is on Ty Simpkin and Josh Minogue from the Bushies.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, just wondering what your opinion is on Ty Simpkin and Josh Minogue from the Bushies.

Minogue is an intriguing overager who has early season shown some signs up forward with his work overhead in round two particularly impressive. My interest is in his development over the course of the season. But at this stage I'm intrigued and eager to see more. Draft chance.

Simpkin is an underager and one to look out for next year. Early scoreboard impact encouraging and he is finding the footy. So he has a strong chance to go next year with strong continued improvement. No question.

 

[eth-dog]

Hey Knighter, who does the 23rd man for Essendon VFL Purcell (unsure of 1st name) play for in the TAC Cup? He's not on our list so I assume he's an underager.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knighter, who does the 23rd man for Essendon VFL Purcell (unsure of 1st name) play for in the TAC Cup? He's not on our list so I assume he's an underager.

I know of Joshua Purcell from Port Melbourne.

I'm not aware of any Purcell in the TAC Cup and can't find one on any of the TAC Cup team lists.

Any Purcell playing for Essendon VFL is a mystery to me.

 

[eth-dog]

I know of Joshua Purcell from Port Melbourne.

I'm not aware of any Purcell in the TAC Cup and can't find one on any of the TAC Cup team lists.

Any Purcell playing for Essendon VFL is a mystery to me.

Well, no doubt we'll find out Sunday via our streamed VFL radio.

 

[XU1-ROO]

Hey KM, what's your thoughts on Liam Jeffs.
I see Weideman kicked 5 and in the bests.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, what's your thoughts on Liam Jeffs.
I see Weideman kicked 5 and in the bests.

Jeffs I believe did his knee some weeks back, so we're probably not seeing him again this year. He is someone I was interested in seeing more of, but assuming he is out for the season, it's unclear where he sits in the larger picture. Perhaps late draft if clubs liked what they saw of him last year, perhaps a bit like Jaden McGrath that may save him. But that's a tricky one.

I was at the game in Box Hill yesterday. So I can report back on what I was seeing on Weideman. He was certainly among the best three with Hardwick also very good again for Eastern up forward as a smaller marking target then down back for Dandenong Kieran Collins was their best. They're the three I left the game thinking "they'll get drafted."

Weideman for me played like a 2nd-3rd round key forward, but certainly not like a first round quality talent on what I've been watching to this point in time. He dropped a couple of marks he should have taken, with another one where he just misread it and could only get one hand on it (though there was wind). On top of that it never felt like he had a game-changing impact. He is a mark and goal forward, at ground level clean enough. But not freakish at ground level. Didn't cover the ground particularly well or quickly. And Dandenong generally didn't play him well. Weideman's first mark was on the lead with 30m in front of him to simply lead onto uncontested.

Over the course of the year with Weideman I'll be looking for him to replicate that performance and build upon that, as for me he isn't what I'd be looking for, in a long term key forward. But I'll be watching with interest none the less as there is still plenty of time to go in the season and there is no reason why he can't elevate his play to move up some draft boards.