Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

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Chris25 said:
Let's say you have two players...one is a good midfielder, but lacks versatility and is average everywhere else. Then you have another who's a great midfielder and an equally great forward. Where would you play them? Rozee obviously goes forward. But having said that, he did rotate through the midfield last year for SA. And did so very well. Tim Taranto played almost solely forward for Vic Metro at the Championships for similar reasons, and he's done alright this year through the midfield.

As for winning it in the guts? Well, 11 of his 20 touches against Vic Country last year were contested and he tackled as hard as anyone. Small sample size, but that's what recruiters will look at and see what he could be in an AFL capacity. Playing strong, contested football is not a problem of his. He's done that just fine in the SANFL against bigger bodies too.

Just watching him play, it's clear he has the midfield game. The way he moves with ball in hand is incredible, whether it's stepping backwards, sideways or through traffic. He evades tackles and creates room like only the best can. I've got no doubt he has the potential to be the best midfielder from this draft. And for all this talk of Rankine, Rozee could easily be the second South Australian picked after Lukosius. And while I don't think being a big body is the be all and end all for a midfielder, Rozee could be unstoppable once he fills out and gets around the 80kg mark.
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Don't forget, Rozee dominated at the U16 National carnival two years ago. He was player of the carnival. Predominantly mid.


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Based on your current assessment of this years draft talent if GC were to combine their Essendon and Geelong 2nd rd picks how high up do you think that could get them up the draft order and do you think that would that be high enough to get them a 3rd draft pick before a Bailey Scott bid would be expected (assuming he nominates the Suns)?
 
Chris25 said:
Let's say you have two players...one is a good midfielder, but lacks versatility and is average everywhere else. Then you have another who's a great midfielder and an equally great forward. Where would you play them? Rozee obviously goes forward. But having said that, he did rotate through the midfield last year for SA. And did so very well. Tim Taranto played almost solely forward for Vic Metro at the Championships for similar reasons, and he's done alright this year through the midfield.

As for winning it in the guts? Well, 11 of his 20 touches against Vic Country last year were contested and he tackled as hard as anyone. Small sample size, but that's what recruiters will look at and see what he could be in an AFL capacity. Playing strong, contested football is not a problem of his. He's done that just fine in the SANFL against bigger bodies too.

Just watching him play, it's clear he has the midfield game. The way he moves with ball in hand is incredible, whether it's stepping backwards, sideways or through traffic. He evades tackles and creates room like only the best can. I've got no doubt he has the potential to be the best midfielder from this draft. And for all this talk of Rankine, Rozee could easily be the second South Australian picked after Lukosius. And while I don't think being a big body is the be all and end all for a midfielder, Rozee could be unstoppable once he fills out and gets around the 80kg mark.
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Connor Rozee is my favourite player in this years draft. He'll be a top 3 pick I reckon.
 

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Chris25 said:
Let's say you have two players...one is a good midfielder, but lacks versatility and is average everywhere else. Then you have another who's a great midfielder and an equally great forward. Where would you play them? Rozee obviously goes forward. But having said that, he did rotate through the midfield last year for SA. And did so very well. Tim Taranto played almost solely forward for Vic Metro at the Championships for similar reasons, and he's done alright this year through the midfield.

As for winning it in the guts? Well, 11 of his 20 touches against Vic Country last year were contested and he tackled as hard as anyone. Small sample size, but that's what recruiters will look at and see what he could be in an AFL capacity. Playing strong, contested football is not a problem of his. He's done that just fine in the SANFL against bigger bodies too.

Just watching him play, it's clear he has the midfield game. The way he moves with ball in hand is incredible, whether it's stepping backwards, sideways or through traffic. He evades tackles and creates room like only the best can. I've got no doubt he has the potential to be the best midfielder from this draft. And for all this talk of Rankine, Rozee could easily be the second South Australian picked after Lukosius. And while I don't think being a big body is the be all and end all for a midfielder, Rozee could be unstoppable once he fills out and gets around the 80kg mark.
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Want.
 
conVINCEd said:
Ooh what - I was joking as I want the Crows to land him.

I honestly hadn’t heard anything about Raynor; he looks a gun anyway.
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Yeah I thought it might have been a ' please please drop so far down the Crows get him' comment but I'm not sure this is the place :)
 

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OB11 said:
Based on your current assessment of this years draft talent if GC were to combine their Essendon and Geelong 2nd rd picks how high up do you think that could get them up the draft order and do you think that would that be high enough to get them a 3rd draft pick before a Bailey Scott bid would be expected (assuming he nominates the Suns)?
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It's unclear at this stage which section of the draft Scott will go. Early second round? Somewhere in the third round? It will come down to how strong his year is.

It's also unclear where Essendon and Gold Coast's second round picks will land which muddies the evaluation. I wouldn't think combining the two picks gets you into the first round though. It just probably moves you up in the second round and may also net you a later pick.
 
Knightmare,
How would you compare Ben and Max King to say a Tom Boyd at the same age? Do you believe Max to be the better forward (also in comparison to his brother Ben). I heard Ben is a better forward from some people at Carlton as he has moved into defense as he is more capable of making that move and they cant have Ben and Max both in the forward 50. Do you have Max going in the top 3-5? and Ben in the top 10?
 
TooBlue14 said:
Knightmare,
How would you compare Ben and Max King to say a Tom Boyd at the same age? Do you believe Max to be the better forward (also in comparison to his brother Ben). I heard Ben is a better forward from some people at Carlton as he has moved into defense as he is more capable of making that move and they cant have Ben and Max both in the forward 50. Do you have Max going in the top 3-5? and Ben in the top 10?
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Max is similarly dominant to Boyd as a key forward.

Boyd in his underage year was the better of the two kicking 44 goals from 15 games v M.King 10 goals from 7 games.

*For interests sake Boyd kicked 23 goals from 5 games in his draft year. M.King has the 8 from one game to this point (which isn't sustainable). To guess, his numbers this year also will be slightly below that of Boyd, comparing draft year v draft year.

What is noticeable though is Boyd was built like a man a lot early and physically much more advanced in his development, so M.King is making ground up in a hurry and may by seasons end catch or nearly catch where Boyd was at, at the same stage.

With rate of improvement equally as important as production in making projections ahead, and revisionist history is part of it, but you'd expect M.King to pass Boyd by and become by far the better pro. Having that greater physical and football development to go, but further to that having the more complete game. Boyd is more your marking forward. King on the other hand is definitely a marking forward - and may become an even more damaging one as he leaps up at the ball and takes it which will make him very hard to defend at the next level. The other key is King has the ground level stuff also which Boyd has never had to nearly that same level.

Overall in comparing key forwards, and I've long used this as my formula to determine quality of key forwards, identifying these as the key areas in identifying whether a key forward should be drafted or not.
*I don't know anyone in the industry who uses the formula. But I strongly believe they should. There have been a lot of recent key forwards taken earlier than I believed they should have over the past five seasons and this may have saved a some clubs using first round picks on some key forwards who plainly aren't worth that.

There are three areas that matter:
1. Production
2. Rate of improvement
3. Points of difference

The more of those three boxes, and the more emphatically, the greater the chances of a pro career and the greater they can theoretically become.

And I"ll score them 0, 0.5 or 1 depending on my analysis of those criteria.

To compare King/Boyd just for interests sake at the same stage.

Boyd
Production 1
Rate of improvement: 1 (4.6 goals per game v 2.9 is a significant improvement - perhaps next time in my projections I need to take into account to a higher degree physical development, being 100kg and fully grown physically pretty much as a 15/16 year old)
Points of difference 0.5 (Height/size/marking but lacking athleticism/ground ball)

M.King
Production: 0.5 (debatable given first game of the season, but this is going off 2017 form as that is the largest sample. further to this he doesn't get up the ground to get many touches, he's more quality over quantity in terms of getting the ball where it counts)
Rate of improvement: 1 (physically improving and getting stronger but numbers going off the first game are no doubt going to be a drastic improvement from 2017)
Points of difference: 1 (has the height, can become stronger, but critically has the combo marking/ground level which means there is more than one way King can take advantage of you which makes him potentially very dangerous)

*Overall the fact that King compares while differently, so positively, it speaks overwhelmingly to the quality of his play and how early he should go and would go in any draft. There are a lot of years he would go pick one, but with Lukosius in this years pool, it's probably not this year.

--
Ben King I don't feel can be compared to either in this kind of comparison given he's a mostly key defender who if playing forward plays higher. A similar comparison could be used with key defenders, and as a recent impressive key defender, Jacob Weitering is probably that guy as the best key defender drafted in recent times. Of the two, I feel Weitering is the better player outright, despite his poor start to season 2018 - probably in large part due to being thrown around both forward and back and lacking that continuity in one position (ideally back where he is undoubtedly better suited). Hopefully Carlton can help Weitering regain his confidence though, as he should theoretically with time be able to develop into the games best key defender, as something like a better Michael Hurley perhaps.

--
As for where they go. Max I have going top two/three, until someone forces past him. Ben I have in the mix for top five, and somewhere around five at this stage, which just speaks to how great the top end is, as they're both exceptional.
 
Knightmare said:
Max is similarly dominant to Boyd as a key forward.

Boyd in his underage year was the better of the two kicking 44 goals from 15 games v M.King 10 goals from 7 games.

*For interests sake Boyd kicked 23 goals from 5 games in his draft year. M.King has the 8 from one game to this point (which isn't sustainable). To guess, his numbers this year also will be slightly below that of Boyd, comparing draft year v draft year.

What is noticeable though is Boyd was built like a man a lot early and physically much more advanced in his development, so M.King is making ground up in a hurry and may by seasons end catch or nearly catch where Boyd was at, at the same stage.

With rate of improvement equally as important as production in making projections ahead, and revisionist history is part of it, but you'd expect M.King to pass Boyd by and become by far the better pro. Having that greater physical and football development to go, but further to that having the more complete game. Boyd is more your marking forward. King on the other hand is definitely a marking forward - and may become an even more damaging one as he leaps up at the ball and takes it which will make him very hard to defend at the next level. The other key is King has the ground level stuff also which Boyd has never had to nearly that same level.

Overall in comparing key forwards, and I've long used this as my formula to determine quality of key forwards, identifying these as the key areas in identifying whether a key forward should be drafted or not.
*I don't know anyone in the industry who uses the formula. But I strongly believe they should. There have been a lot of recent key forwards taken earlier than I believed they should have over the past five seasons and this may have saved a some clubs using first round picks on some key forwards who plainly aren't worth that.

There are three areas that matter:
1. Production
2. Rate of improvement
3. Points of difference

The more of those three boxes, and the more emphatically, the greater the chances of a pro career and the greater they can theoretically become.

And I"ll score them 0, 0.5 or 1 depending on my analysis of those criteria.

To compare King/Boyd just for interests sake at the same stage.

Boyd
Production 1
Rate of improvement: 1 (4.6 goals per game v 2.9 is a significant improvement - perhaps next time in my projections I need to take into account to a higher degree physical development, being 100kg and fully grown physically pretty much as a 15/16 year old)
Points of difference 0.5 (Height/size/marking but lacking athleticism/ground ball)

M.King
Production: 0.5 (debatable given first game of the season, but this is going off 2017 form as that is the largest sample. further to this he doesn't get up the ground to get many touches, he's more quality over quantity in terms of getting the ball where it counts)
Rate of improvement: 1 (physically improving and getting stronger but numbers going off the first game are no doubt going to be a drastic improvement from 2017)
Points of difference: 1 (has the height, can become stronger, but critically has the combo marking/ground level which means there is more than one way King can take advantage of you which makes him potentially very dangerous)

*Overall the fact that King compares while differently, so positively, it speaks overwhelmingly to the quality of his play and how early he should go and would go in any draft. There are a lot of years he would go pick one, but with Lukosius in this years pool, it's probably not this year.

--
Ben King I don't feel can be compared to either in this kind of comparison given he's a mostly key defender who if playing forward plays higher. A similar comparison could be used with key defenders, and as a recent impressive key defender, Jacob Weitering is probably that guy as the best key defender drafted in recent times. Of the two, I feel Weitering is the better player outright, despite his poor start to season 2018 - probably in large part due to being thrown around both forward and back and lacking that continuity in one position (ideally back where he is undoubtedly better suited). Hopefully Carlton can help Weitering regain his confidence though, as he should theoretically with time be able to develop into the games best key defender, as something like a better Michael Hurley perhaps.

--
As for where they go. Max I have going top two/three, until someone forces past him. Ben I have in the mix for top five, and somewhere around five at this stage, which just speaks to how great the top end is, as they're both exceptional.
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Thanks KM hugely comprehensive. Will be very interesting for sides like Carlton, saints and lions as to who to take in particular with the mids in this draft too and all three sides needing mids more than a KPF or D but in Carlton’s situation at 1 at the moment you can’t go past lukosius. Hopefully they can fill their midfield gaps with a FA like gaff or Sloane while bringing in the two hickmotts and BSOS. They already have the makings of a strong midfield but they’re just way too Young and haven’t played enough together yet to know where they all are and whose going in and whose not.

I’ve mentioned this on the carlton board but this is Thebes two options I’d love to have next year

1) lukosius (pick 1) + gaff (FA) OR
2) Rozzee (pick 1-3) + Lynch (FA)

But still if Carlton come last and lynch wants to come and SOS puts in an offer. We will have to take lukosius or trade down but who would turn down a generational forward. You’d look back on it and think ****.

Too many talls are at carlton already but give it 1-2 more years and with the live trading option we could come out pretty well if we wanted to move a Macreadie or McKay on to improve our position to get some lukosius and another top 10 pick for a player like samwalsh.
 
TooBlue14 said:
Thanks KM hugely comprehensive. Will be very interesting for sides like Carlton, saints and lions as to who to take in particular with the mids in this draft too and all three sides needing mids more than a KPF or D but in Carlton’s situation at 1 at the moment you can’t go past lukosius. Hopefully they can fill their midfield gaps with a FA like gaff or Sloane while bringing in the two hickmotts and BSOS. They already have the makings of a strong midfield but they’re just way too Young and haven’t played enough together yet to know where they all are and whose going in and whose not.

I’ve mentioned this on the carlton board but this is Thebes two options I’d love to have next year

1) lukosius (pick 1) + gaff (FA) OR
2) Rozzee (pick 1-3) + Lynch (FA)

But still if Carlton come last and lynch wants to come and SOS puts in an offer. We will have to take lukosius or trade down but who would turn down a generational forward. You’d look back on it and think ****.

Too many talls are at carlton already but give it 1-2 more years and with the live trading option we could come out pretty well if we wanted to move a Macreadie or McKay on to improve our position to get some lukosius and another top 10 pick for a player like samwalsh.
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How exactly would you get that second top 10 pick?
 
SumTingWong said:
How exactly would you get that second top 10 pick?
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Trading a future first. Using our two seconds. Trading aplayer like Macreadie or McKay (young developing talls) that clubs would be after. It comes down to the team and the options available at their live pick. With live trading coming in a team may have the best midfielder available at their pick 10 (for example) but are crying out for a tall. They may offer it up for a player like McKay towllow a team like Carlton to get another high quality mid instead of a another tall.
 
TooBlue14 said:
Trading a future first. Using our two seconds. Trading aplayer like Macreadie or McKay (young developing talls) that clubs would be after. It comes down to the team and the options available at their live pick. With live trading coming in a team may have the best midfielder available at their pick 10 (for example) but are crying out for a tall. They may offer it up for a player like McKay towllow a team like Carlton to get another high quality mid instead of a another tall.
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You will get next to nothing for Mckay or Macreadie in this years draft. Future first I see your point but if it's true that this years draft, especially the top end is going to be special then you will be pushing s*** up hill too get a club to do that trade. Rumours to come out soon are that there are a few clubs willing to trade out top end talent to get into the top 10 this year so I don't think your plan will work.
 
SumTingWong said:
You will get next to nothing for Mckay or Macreadie in this years draft. Future first I see your point but if it's true that this years draft, especially the top end is going to be special then you will be pushing s*** up hill too get a club to do that trade. Rumours to come out soon are that there are a few clubs willing to trade out top end talent to get into the top 10 this year so I don't think your plan will work.
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It wasn’t a plan I just said it would be interesting what teams like Carl, Bris and Saints would do advo they don’t really need another KP player like the kings or lukosius. Teams like Coll, Geel, WC, would give up a lot (I agree) for a top 5 Pick this year. My two plans are above (in previous post to KM) that I would be extremely happy with. Not sure how it happens but both are possible.
 
SumTingWong said:
You will get next to nothing for Mckay or Macreadie in this years draft. Future first I see your point but if it's true that this years draft, especially the top end is going to be special then you will be pushing s*** up hill too get a club to do that trade. Rumours to come out soon are that there are a few clubs willing to trade out top end talent to get into the top 10 this year so I don't think your plan will work.
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Agree - there’s no currency in Carlton’s “developing talls”, apart from Weitering and Curnow (whom we all agree they’ll keep no matter what).
 
TooBlue14 said:
It wasn’t a plan I just said it would be interesting what teams like Carl, Bris and Saints would do advo they don’t really need another KP player like the kings or lukosius. Teams like Coll, Geel, WC, would give up a lot (I agree) for a top 5 Pick this year. My two plans are above (in previous post to KM) that I would be extremely happy with. Not sure how it happens but both are possible.
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You're not serious are you? Who at those respective clubs are better than these guys?
 
SumTingWong said:
You're not serious are you? Who at those respective clubs are better than these guys?
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I probably didn’t word it very well. These sides need midfielders and have already spent time drafting talls. Carlton have mckay, Curnow, Kerr, JSOS, Macreadie, Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank as young talls and with BSOS this year lukosius would force Carlton to move 1-2 along. Yes lukosius is better than all of them bar Curnow (ranked 2nd in the afl player ratings as a forward behind buddy franklin as a 20 year old) but to an entent carlton need quality mids as much as they can get. It’ll be a tough time making that decision but I reckon they’ll take best available in lukosius anyways and see what’s happens.Thus FA mids are needed ASAP.
What makes lukosius and any top player coming out of SA this year is they are playing football against AFL ready bodies in the sanfl and they don’t have the shit zoning rules of the tac cup and U18 championships. Hence when lukosius kicks 4 goals it’s against solid opponents. Which is why I believe player should like ben and max King a fraught with danger. They are dominating much like Boyd and Schache did and once they hit the bigger body afl sides they willneed 3-4 years before they hit their straps. Tall skinny kids struggle early in afl systems. Hence why McKay will be a gun, eventually.
 
TooBlue14 said:
Thanks KM hugely comprehensive. Will be very interesting for sides like Carlton, saints and lions as to who to take in particular with the mids in this draft too and all three sides needing mids more than a KPF or D but in Carlton’s situation at 1 at the moment you can’t go past lukosius. Hopefully they can fill their midfield gaps with a FA like gaff or Sloane while bringing in the two hickmotts and BSOS. They already have the makings of a strong midfield but they’re just way too Young and haven’t played enough together yet to know where they all are and whose going in and whose not.
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With the loss of Schache for a packet of crisps, Brisbane is in desperate need of a genuine KPF to pair with Hipwood.
 
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