Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Leon Black]

Who should the Blues take Rankine or Lukosios, you can probably guess how I’m feeling right now

 

[GreyCrow]

Who should the Blues take Rankine or Lukosios, you can probably guess how I’m feeling right now

Lukosius x 100

 

[HedgeFund]

I watched both his games this year, and although he has improved his contested work and is finding quite a bit of the footy, his kicking is still not up to the standard. Maybe, you’re right he has made strides, from lots of hard work but under pressure, the ball is butchered, coming off his boot.

 

[Knightmare]

Who should the Blues take Rankine or Lukosios, you can probably guess how I’m feeling right now

Lukosius. He's the best player in this years draft.

It's the year you want to be bad if there is to be a year. The top end talent is as good as I've seen.

 

[Leon Black]

Lukosius. He's the best player in this years draft.

It's the year you want to be bad if there is to be a year. The top end talent is as good as I've seen.

Just wondering if that takes into account the presence of McKay Curnow Kerr and Jack on the list, is Lukosius that good?

 

[HedgeFund]

Just wondering if that takes into account the presence of McKay Curnow Kerr and Jack on the list, is Lukosius that good?

If he is good enough play ahead of Kerr, McKay and J. Silvagni - then of course you pick him.

 

[Knightmare]

Just wondering if that takes into account the presence of McKay Curnow Kerr and Jack on the list, is Lukosius that good?

Lukosius is the best prospect I've seen in my 10 years following the draft.

He's another Nick Riewoldt but with a much better kick. Not as dominating of a mark - can here/there be two grab. But that's the only knock. He can be great, maybe generational.

You'd have the best key forward combo in the game with Lukosius and Curnow.

Carlton also have Ben Silvagni coming in this year as a father son, so Carlton could trade McKay/Kerr/Silvagni unless concerned about depth.

 

[RUNVS]

It looks like it is going to be between Carlton and Brisbane in terms of who gets pick 1. It is interesting as I am not sure Brisbane really need a Lukosius type but they desperately need a hard at it midfielder. If they had pick 1 I wonder if Lukosius would be too good to ignore though, especially considering that key position forwards are not "sure things" like top rated midfielders are.

 

[GreyCrow]

Lukosius is the best prospect I've seen in my 10 years following the draft.

He's another Nick Riewoldt but with a much better kick. Not as dominating of a mark - can here/there be two grab. But that's the only knock. He can be great, maybe generational.

You'd have the best key forward combo in the game with Lukosius and Curnow.

Carlton also have Ben Silvagni coming in this year as a father son, so Carlton could trade McKay/Kerr/Silvagni unless concerned about depth.

Plus Carlton like trading with the Crows

 

[BPikkers]

Tends to happen that way.

Bailey Smith down back though I can give props to for his play last year. Incredible midfielder, but played some really strong footy down back. He could pretty easily do a Dyson Heppell, start his career down back and transition into the midfield when the minutes open up, or just start as a midfielder depending on opportunities/openings/need.

Is he that Xavier College kid? If so there were big wraps on him a few years ago. In fact I think Paul Conners’ kid goes to the same school and so has been all over him since he was 14.

 

[Knightmare]

It looks like it is going to be between Carlton and Brisbane in terms of who gets pick 1. It is interesting as I am not sure Brisbane really need a Lukosius type but they desperately need a hard at it midfielder. If they had pick 1 I wonder if Lukosius would be too good to ignore though, especially considering that key position forwards are not "sure things" like top rated midfielders are.

Both clubs need midfielders. It's absolutely their priorities. Carlton losing Gibbs, Murphy 30+ now. Cripps needs a better supporting cast, with Docherty along not enough help. Similarly Brisbane with Rockliff moved don't have much left with Beams and Zorko needing support. And with midfielders covering the most ground, most involved in the game most of the time and getting most of your touches. They're the most vital ingredient positionally at the end of the day to have and get right if you want to win games of footy.

In saying that. I don't love either club for key forwards. Numbers of options aren't the issue. I just look at Carlton as - Curnow is already highly impressive and can be great, but none of those other key forwards look better than Casboult. None of them look like keepers to my eyes at this stage after Curnow, nor did they at the time of drafting.

Brisbane may have the best key defence stocks in the game, but for key forwards I don't see a single one I like. Wooller? Hipwood is a key defender being forced to play key forward. He doesn't have the hands overhead or that aerial attack on the ball without dropping it to be a great key forward - although similar could be said of Buddy who has made it work, though he's less bad in this respect. Down back Hipwood just reads it so beautifully and can be an intercept marking and rebounding beast - and with that ground ball work and athleticism, he can be a complete and future All-Australian key defender if ever that move is made. Ballenden as a new guy also I really like as a key defender but find up forward goes missing. Then Harris Andrews, maybe he can play forward, but is a great key defender already - maybe All-Australian quality, not that anyone will notice him up in Brisbane, you don't move that forward, he's too special and important down back.

So in both situations, I'd be keeping the pick and taking the key forward.

In future seasons, if they finish low down the ladder again, trading picks for players/other picks where players who fill needs better may be the route to go.

All that said, it doesn't mean a club doesn't try.

St Kilda may offer their first picks for 2018 (probably pick 3), 2019 (may be similar)?

Or maybe you get a West Coast or Adelaide making an aggressive play if Gaff or Sloane respectively leave with compensation picks and and other picks or young players they can muster up?

There will be attempts. Attempts at pick 1 for Lukosius just have to be rejected. Maybe deals for pick 2 can be listened to depending on projections of the King boys and Rankine. But you'd still be asking for heavy currency in return.

--
One observation with those clubs that often finish near the bottom. They will often have many chances at key forwards and often compile a number of key position players taken in the early portion of the draft. But those who finish higher each year on the other hand find it hard to find worthwhile KPPs through the trade - Hawthorn being a key and obvious example of this - though they smartly took Frawley as a free agent and traded for Gunston. Geelong though will be feeling the strain with Hawkins ageing and having no help and at the other end the same story with Taylor and Lachie Henderson nearing 30.

Geelong, like Collingwood more than any other side in the game need elite young Kpps. I'm just not seeing either finishing low enough to have the picks to take a serious shot at a Lukosius or King. And again, unsurprisingly we're talking about other clubs who haven't been in the bottom four any time recently, though Collingwood haven't been good for a few years admittedly and if they remain bad probably get their chance at a key forward soon.

 

[Knightmare]

Is he that Xavier College kid? If so there were big wraps on him a few years ago. In fact I think Paul Conners’ kid goes to the same school and so has been all over him since he was 14.

That's the one.

Along with Geelong's Sam Walsh, is in that best midfielder conversation.

Smith being the more reliable kick. Walsh the more explosive.

 

[Knightmare]

I was thinking that, dominance at colts level can be hard to read. But also loads of jnr talent has come out of there and if he's a cut above seems like he could be top 10 pick. Champs will determine that.

Colts is a lower level compared to say TAC Cup, so performing at League level adds further further credibility, and if you're getting it done against league competition, you're game tends to translate fairly immediately - see Bailey Banfield (although an overager) as an example out of last years draft.

There is also the question of whether English is just an accumulator, or whether he has some points of difference.

They're the things recruiters will look at, as will I.

Three goals in each of his past two matches in the Colts now, so he's building a strong case.

 

[Savage Kent]

I believe that the saints are a good chance of having pick 1 in this year's draft. The midfield is an area of weakness ATM and feel it is an area that we need to really work on. Rankine seems like the type of highly skilled player we are lacking. Having said that, Lukosius is touted as a generational key forward.

If the saints are in a position to select one of these two, who do you pick and why?

 

[GreyCrow]

I believe that the saints are a good chance of having pick 1 in this year's draft. The midfield is an area of weakness ATM and feel it is an area that we need to really work on. Rankine seems like the type of highly skilled player we are lacking. Having said that, Lukosius is touted as a generational key forward.

If the saints are in a position to select one of these two, who do you pick and why?

Rankine I believe is a better half forward. He may project into the midfield but he isnt a midfield starter. Another SA lad Connor Rozee is

 

[Knightmare]

Rankine I believe is a better half forward. He may project into the midfield but he isnt a midfield starter. Another SA lad Connor Rozee is

Does Rozee have the capabilities as a ball winner I would query to be a full time mid?

Terrific forward (both with forward pressure and tricks), but he's one I would have thought still needs as a mid to prove himself.

 

[Knightmare]

I believe that the saints are a good chance of having pick 1 in this year's draft. The midfield is an area of weakness ATM and feel it is an area that we need to really work on. Rankine seems like the type of highly skilled player we are lacking. Having said that, Lukosius is touted as a generational key forward.

If the saints are in a position to select one of these two, who do you pick and why?

If I'm picking. Doesn't matter who the team is.

Lukosius is the pick. Best prospect I've seen in my 10 years covering the draft.

Don't need a key forward, play him down back, don't need a key defender, play him on a wing.

It's that simple.

Fix other needs with other picks and through the free agency and trade period - get your mids with other picks and enjoy another Nick Riewoldt, or a version of Riewoldt with a much sweeter kick - both to target and on goal.

 

[GreyCrow]

Does Rozee have the capabilities as a ball winner I would query to be a full time mid?

Terrific forward (both with forward pressure and tricks), but he's one I would have thought still needs as a mid to prove himself.

To be fair I took the description from a notice ie Rankine called Forward/Midfielder and Rozee the other way. There has also been discussion from a few of our more knowledgable posters. Rozee got in the best players for Norths reserves today without kicking a goal.

 

[Chris25]

Does Rozee have the capabilities as a ball winner I would query to be a full time mid?

Terrific forward (both with forward pressure and tricks), but he's one I would have thought still needs as a mid to prove himself.

Rozee is a midfielder.

 

[Cannavaro20]

HI KM,

Saints playing as they are allows me to focus on my favourite past time... list management. I would appreciate your thoughts on the questions below:

1. Tom Boyd vs. lukocius... who was/is the GOAT at under 18 level

2. Say saints have to make a decision between a king/lukocius and rankine/Walsh.... what do we do i.e. could we take king and trade bruce to re enter the first round(or is that a pipe dream)

Thank you!

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

[Knightmare]

Rozee is a midfielder.

In the SANFL, sure, he gets to play there.

He has however for SA through last years U18 Champs, against North Melbourne the other week and in other performances against or with the best talents in the country player predominantly forward, which as a Victorian are the matches I've taken in.

I'm looking at him also in an AFL capacity. Rozee could play outside given his skills, pace and pressure, but he doesn't as such a light bodied type strike me as the ball winner who will win it through the guts. Am I wrong? Having the opportunity to watch Rozee each week I'm sure you will have an opinion on this.

 

[Knightmare]

HI KM,

Saints playing as they are allows me to focus on my favourite past time... list management. I would appreciate your thoughts on the questions below:

1. Tom Boyd vs. lukocius... who was/is the GOAT at under 18 level

2. Say saints have to make a decision between a king/lukocius and rankine/Walsh.... what do we do i.e. could we take king and trade bruce to re enter the first round(or is that a pipe dream)

Thank you!

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

1. Lukosius still has the year to play, but obvious signs are that he is the real MVP/the better performed of the two for the same stage. Boyd was dominating in the TAC Cup (against junior competition). Lukosius on the other hand is dominating against SANFL League competition (against men and the most advanced talent in the AFL from his state). Also benefiting Boyd in the TAC Cup are the anti-congestion rules which allow for more 1v1 opportunities and more space to operate in which helps make Victorian key forwards look relatively better than their interstate peers who don't get that same luxury.

2. Bruce in this draft isn't worth a top 4 pick. The top end of this draft is as good as any arguably since 2001. Clubs with picks that high would be wanting Josh Bruce and a further player of equivalent or a higher standard to consider such a deal.

 

[saintscott]

1. Lukosius still has the year to play, but obvious signs are that he is the real MVP/the better performed of the two for the same stage. Boyd was dominating in the TAC Cup (against junior competition). Lukosius on the other hand is dominating against SANFL League competition (against men and the most advanced talent in the AFL from his state). Also benefiting Boyd in the TAC Cup are the anti-congestion rules which allow for more 1v1 opportunities and more space to operate in which helps make Victorian key forwards look relatively better than their interstate peers who don't get that same luxury.

2. Bruce in this draft isn't worth a top 4 pick. The top end of this draft is as good as any arguably since 2001. Clubs with picks that high would be wanting Josh Bruce and a further player of equivalent or a higher standard to consider such a deal.

I may be reading it wrong but i think the poster was more saying would Bruce get us back into the top 20 or so?

If we continue our current dorm it is not out of the question we finish dead last. We traded our second rounder so would be hoping that we have a player or players of value that achieve that. Lukosius McCartin (jury still out) membrey and battle would be as tall as you would want to go. Rowan Marshall looks a reasonable prospect also as forward second ruck.

So Bruce would be surplus to needs. While i am at it, what sort of value would someone like newnes get?

 

[Knightmare]

I may be reading it wrong but i think the poster was more saying would Bruce get us back into the top 20 or so?

If we continue our current dorm it is not out of the question we finish dead last. We traded our second rounder so would be hoping that we have a player or players of value that achieve that. Lukosius McCartin (jury still out) membrey and battle would be as tall as you would want to go. Rowan Marshall looks a reasonable prospect also as forward second ruck.

So Bruce would be surplus to needs. While i am at it, what sort of value would someone like newnes get?

Bruce would net around pick 15-20 most years. This year that might be something more like pick 25.

Newnes might most years net pick 20, that's more like pick 30 this year.

None of that is ragging on Bruce or Newnes. Both are very good established players.

It's just a really great top 30 in this years draft and clubs continually overrate the value of draft picks - beyond what their actual worth is, with clubs being able to sell draft picks as new hope and give them excuses for not winning in the next couple of years.

 

[Chris25]

In the SANFL, sure, he gets to play there.

He has however for SA through last years U18 Champs, against North Melbourne the other week and in other performances against or with the best talents in the country player predominantly forward, which as a Victorian are the matches I've taken in.

I'm looking at him also in an AFL capacity. Rozee could play outside given his skills, pace and pressure, but he doesn't as such a light bodied type strike me as the ball winner who will win it through the guts. Am I wrong? Having the opportunity to watch Rozee each week I'm sure you will have an opinion on this.

Let's say you have two players...one is a good midfielder, but lacks versatility and is average everywhere else. Then you have another who's a great midfielder and an equally great forward. Where would you play them? Rozee obviously goes forward. But having said that, he did rotate through the midfield last year for SA. And did so very well. Tim Taranto played almost solely forward for Vic Metro at the Championships for similar reasons, and he's done alright this year through the midfield.

As for winning it in the guts? Well, 11 of his 20 touches against Vic Country last year were contested and he tackled as hard as anyone. Small sample size, but that's what recruiters will look at and see what he could be in an AFL capacity. Playing strong, contested football is not a problem of his. He's done that just fine in the SANFL against bigger bodies too.

Just watching him play, it's clear he has the midfield game. The way he moves with ball in hand is incredible, whether it's stepping backwards, sideways or through traffic. He evades tackles and creates room like only the best can. I've got no doubt he has the potential to be the best midfielder from this draft. And for all this talk of Rankine, Rozee could easily be the second South Australian picked after Lukosius. And while I don't think being a big body is the be all and end all for a midfielder, Rozee could be unstoppable once he fills out and gets around the 80kg mark.