Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[fridgeman]

Knightmare
It would be a great story if Mitch Maguire is drafted even as a rookie and interested in what position you think he could play if he is given a shot at the big time?
Has he been invited to any of the combines?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare
It would be a great story if Mitch Maguire is drafted even as a rookie and interested in what position you think he could play if he is given a shot at the big time?
Has he been invited to any of the combines?

I haven't noticed Maguire on the state combine list, unless he's a late call-up I'm not aware of.

He's worth drafting and has capabilities as both a mid and a forward. He's ideally suited as forward who rotates through the midfield at AFL level. Has the skills/speed/ground ball winning/production. So he's one who can play if given the opportunity.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Hall's value isn't as a leader. It's his on field performance and impact.

Gold Coast's selection policy throughout the season has been poor. They dropped their best player (Jarryd Lyons) more than once.



Carlton would happily accept Hall as a freebie. Or they should if he was to talk into the PSD.

Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide are some potentially good teams who would all love to pick up Hall through the PSD. Essendon particularly could really use him.

The trade period hasn't started yet, so there is still time to make the offer, or make the passing comment 'you can have our second for Hall.' Doesn't take much.

It wouldn't be the first or last time a club has taken a player out from under another team.

Not disagreeing, just wondering, why do you say that?

 

[philthy05]

Do you know butters height? I’ve seen 178 and 180 listed?

Also can you tell me more about Hanrahan? What’s the knock on him? Does he find much of the ball at tac cup level? What position does he play? I like his kick from the little I’ve seen.

Rowbottom
O’Halloran
Duursma
Caldwell

What kind of numbers for possessions clearances and contested possessions are these guys racking up in the tac?

 

[Knightmare]

Not disagreeing, just wondering, why do you say that?

I see Essendon's deficiency as midfield and particularly that lack of that high quality outside mid.

If Setterfield also joins. That's two great offseason additions with one inside and one outside who can walk straight into Essendon's best 22.

Do you know butters height? I’ve seen 178 and 180 listed?

Also can you tell me more about Hanrahan? What’s the knock on him? Does he find much of the ball at tac cup level? What position does he play? I like his kick from the little I’ve seen.

Rowbottom
O’Halloran
Duursma
Caldwell

What kind of numbers for possessions clearances and contested possessions are these guys racking up in the tac?

Butters is 181cm.

Hahrahan is quick and a good user. He's light, outside and doesn't find or win enough of it. There is some interest in him in clubland, potentially late, but he's not on my draft board.

*Don't have the time/interest tonight to go through each rounds stats and compile season averages. But for a general feel.

Rowbottom has good contested/clearance numbers. He's just a low impact type who you don't notice as much as the better Sandy players.

O'Halloran isn't all that high production. Contested possessions moderate, clearance numbers good due to spending a lot of time through there.

Duursma good contested and clearance numbers which is impressive for someone with his speed/skill who doesn't always play inside. A genuine inside/outside type who I like and impressed me all season with the finals really elevating him in my calculations.

Caldwell not much data/games same. But good contested/high clearance is what to expect. That's his game as an inside type who can distribute and has a burst to go with it.

 

[philthy05]

I see Essendon's deficiency as midfield and particularly that lack of that high quality outside mid.

If Setterfield also joins. That's two great offseason additions with one inside and one outside who can walk straight into Essendon's best 22.



Butters is 181cm.

Hahrahan is quick and a good user. He's light, outside and doesn't find or win enough of it. There is some interest in him in clubland, potentially late, but he's not on my draft board.

*Don't have the time/interest tonight to go through each rounds stats and compile season averages. But for a general feel.

Rowbottom has good contested/clearance numbers. He's just a low impact type who you don't notice as much as the better Sandy players.

O'Halloran isn't all that high production. Contested possessions moderate, clearance numbers good due to spending a lot of time through there.

Duursma good contested and clearance numbers which is impressive for someone with his speed/skill who doesn't always play inside. A genuine inside/outside type who I like and impressed me all season with the finals really elevating him in my calculations.

Caldwell not much data/games same. But good contested/high clearance is what to expect. That's his game as an inside type who can distribute and has a burst to go with it.

Thanks. A general feel of their ability in regards to cont possessions ability to find the ball etc was what I was after.

I also meant to ask about Tom McKenzie. What’s he like at tac Cup level?

I feel like this draft is quite flush with midfielders mid draft. Other years i think there are more flankers slow inside mids and sub 180 guys and generally lots of guys that play elsewhere with mid ‘potential’ where as this year there are just lots of genuine mids.

 

[gcsunsfc]

If he was really that valuable on-field do you think they'd be shopping him for a token pick? He's a one way runner with zero defensive ethic on an inflated salary - not exactly the example Dew wants for a developing group.

There's certainly a spot for him in a good team but not somewhere like Gold Coast, which makes it hard to get a good return.

Looks good but major deficiencies - particularly in the areas dew wants to be our forte and apparently not receptive at all to feedback.

I’m sure he’ll be a better player at north.

Disappointed we couldn’t get more for him but given his papers have been stamped long ago and didn’t offer him any contract don’t think we could ask for the world.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

How do I tell the difference between the King twins?

Not asking about playing style BTW.

 

[HedgeFund]

How do I tell the difference between the King twins?

Not asking about playing style BTW.

What do you mean? They’re identical twins, there is no difference.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

What do you mean? They’re identical twins, there is no difference.

I mean, is one's face fatter than the other?

 

[Davo-27]

I mean, is one's face fatter than the other?

Max is slightly heavier, thats about it and im sure their personalities are slightly different.

 

[HedgeFund]

Max is slightly heavier, thats about it and im sure their personalities are slightly different.

I’ve known them for 2 years, still can’t pick the difference. For a while Max shaved his head, whilst Ben kept it long. That was a great time in my life.

 

[Arsene Wenger]

Hey KM

On the assumption Port get pick 5 from the GC as part of the touted May/Hogan/Neale deal (using its 10 [which it will get from North for Polec] and 11).

How do you see the top 5 picks playing out. Its clearly 1-Walsh (Carl) 2- Luko (Suns) 3- Rankine/Rozee (Suns) 4 - Smith/Rankine 5- ??

I assume if it plays out like that Port may get a look at one of Rozee/Smith/Rankine.

I guess what i want to know is do you think there is any chance rankine gets through to 5?

 

[vozzon]

Hey KM

On the assumption Port get pick 5 from the GC as part of the touted May/Hogan/Neale deal (using its 10 [which it will get from North for Polec] and 11).

How do you see the top 5 picks playing out. Its clearly 1-Walsh (Carl) 2- Luko (Suns) 3- Rankine/Rozee (Suns) 4 - Smith/Rankine 5- ??

I assume if it plays out like that Port may get a look at one of Rozee/Smith/Rankine.

I guess what i want to know is do you think there is any chance rankine gets through to 5?

Ideally we would want rankine and not sure if Rozee would be better than smith as a mid. Knightmare would the saints be interested in dealing for the picks 9/10 for pick 4 considering they are in for Dylan Shiel?

 

[LittleG]

Ideally we would want rankine and not sure if Rozee would be better than smith as a mid. Knightmare would the saints be interested in dealing for the picks 9/10 for pick 4 considering they are in for Dylan Shiel?

A club in the Saints position would be crazy not to try and jump in on the 9/10 pick combo.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM

On the assumption Port get pick 5 from the GC as part of the touted May/Hogan/Neale deal (using its 10 [which it will get from North for Polec] and 11).

How do you see the top 5 picks playing out. Its clearly 1-Walsh (Carl) 2- Luko (Suns) 3- Rankine/Rozee (Suns) 4 - Smith/Rankine 5- ??

I assume if it plays out like that Port may get a look at one of Rozee/Smith/Rankine.

I guess what i want to know is do you think there is any chance rankine gets through to 5?

If picks 1-5 are Carl, GC, GC, STK, PA.

I can see Walsh/Lukosius/Rozee/M.King/Rankine.

Ideally we would want rankine and not sure if Rozee would be better than smith as a mid. Knightmare would the saints be interested in dealing for the picks 9/10 for pick 4 considering they are in for Dylan Shiel?

Smith is a better mid than Rozee. Particularly around the contest. It's not close.

Rankine is better than Rozee. On another tier for talent.

I'd much prefer pick 4 to the combination of picks 9/10 in this draft. Pick 4 is in the sweet spot this year and picks 9/10 is after all the elite talent is gone and the draft flattens out. Whether St Kilda keep the pick or GWS want a deal from Saints for Shiel, GWS should prefer pick 4 this year with Smith a ready-made replacement for Shiel and someone with the capacity for a similar career outcome.

 

[RUNVS]

How do I tell the difference between the King twins?

Not asking about playing style BTW.

I am pretty sure one of them was killed at the Battle of Hogwarts.

 

[vozzon]

If picks 1-5 are Carl, GC, GC, STK, PA.

I can see Walsh/Lukosius/Rozee/M.King/Rankine.



Smith is a better mid than Rozee. Particularly around the contest. It's not close.

Rankine is better than Rozee. On another tier for talent.

I'd much prefer pick 4 to the combination of picks 9/10 in this draft. Pick 4 is in the sweet spot this year and picks 9/10 is after all the elite talent is gone and the draft flattens out. Whether St Kilda keep the pick or GWS want a deal from Saints for Shiel, GWS should prefer pick 4 this year with Smith a ready-made replacement for Shiel and someone with the capacity for a similar career outcome.

Cheers for the response Knightmare. Agree that ports picks seem to fall just short of the elite talent in the draft. Felt Saints might be keen 9 and 10 with there lack of 2nd round picks and there potential trade for Shiel (i think Hawks and Carlton are in front atm). Would love to get Rankine at Port .

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers for the response Knightmare. Agree that ports picks seem to fall just short of the elite talent in the draft. Felt Saints might be keen 9 and 10 with there lack of 2nd round picks and there potential trade for Shiel (i think Hawks and Carlton are in front atm). Would love to get Rankine at Port .

Saints love M.King and he wants to go there having supported them as a kid.

King is of the quality where he would some years be the top overall pick, so they'll be reluctant to give up that pick.

They'd be more open to moving their 2019 pick I would have thought if they move any pick in a trade.

It's going to be hard to get that pick off the Saints. Gold Coast with so many picks are the more likely to be open to making moves with one of their early picks I would have thought.

 

[vozzon]

Saints love M.King and he wants to go there having supported them as a kid.

King is of the quality where he would some years be the top overall pick, so they'll be reluctant to give up that pick.

They'd be more open to moving their 2019 pick I would have thought if they move any pick in a trade.

It's going to be hard to get that pick off the Saints. Gold Coast with so many picks are the more likely to be open to making moves with one of their early picks I would have thought.

Thats fair enough, well going by that and Gold Coast taking Rozee it leaves Rankine and Smith available at that Brisbane/Freo Pick which seems like the pick Port can most likely get.

If the live trading goes ahead Im sure Port and Crows will push for that pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Thats fair enough, well going by that and Gold Coast taking Rozee it leaves Rankine and Smith available at that Brisbane/Freo Pick which seems like the pick Port can most likely get.

If the live trading goes ahead Im sure Port and Crows will push for that pick.

I imagine that's likely.

Gold Coast may think they can get Rozee a few picks later, so I wouldn't be shocked if they moved their pick 3 compensation pick down to around pick 5 allowing M.King/Rankine to get picked after they take Lukosius and they can still get Rozee who is close friends with Lukosius and someone Gold Coast like as a prospect more generally.

 

[theGav56]

How do I tell the difference between the King twins?

Not asking about playing style BTW.

Focus on the knees, not the face.

 

[vozzon]

I imagine that's likely.

Gold Coast may think they can get Rozee a few picks later, so I wouldn't be shocked if they moved their pick 3 compensation pick down to around pick 5 allowing M.King/Rankine to get picked after they take Lukosius and they can still get Rozee who is close friends with Lukosius and someone Gold Coast like as a prospect more generally.

That still works for me lol. Really excited by Rankine as a prospect.

Do you think the straight swap of Ports pick 9/10 for Rankine is worth it? Also would it be possible something comes back later on in the draft to us with the possible inclusion of Hombsch being involved in the deal? Also rumours of Jack Martin wanting out so bigger deal being could be looked at.

 

[Knightmare]

That still works for me lol. Really excited by Rankine as a prospect.

Do you think the straight swap of Ports pick 9/10 for Rankine is worth it? Also would it be possible something comes back later on in the draft to us with the possible inclusion of Hombsch being involved in the deal? Also rumours of Jack Martin wanting out so bigger deal being could be looked at.

I do. Yes.

The AFL Points index says 9/10 is better, which suggests most years you'd take 9/10.

This year however, Rankine is a talent where in some drafts, he is worth pick 1. He's a game changing talent. He's worth trading up for. On the other hand, after the top roughly 8 picks, the quality drops away. So it's a year you want to be inside that top 6 if you want that elite talent from this draft.

 

[FootyNut119]

Hey KM,

Who are the good KPD coming through in this year’s Drafts and the 2019-2020 drafts ahead? What is the demand like for them from AFL clubs?