Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Great work as always, where would you see the 5 mature age concession picks McAdam, Krueger, Corbett, Burgess and the other one (Collins ?) draft range

The best suggestino of their draft value was Geelong's deal with Carlton probably gives the best indication of the approximate value with Geelong offering pick 43 to make it happen and being that first state leaguer to drop. Kreuger likely would have gone earlier in the real draft with Geelong willing to offer 43, with Geelong sure to have calculated that they would not have had a better prospect available at that pick so he probably would have gone around 30 if part of the draft pool.

Corbett probably 30-40.

Burgess/McAdam 30-50.

Collins probably closer to 50.

They're rough feels. None would have gone first round, but all were expected to drop in the national draft.

 

[Knightmare]

So he went at 88%...not bad IMO!

With players in my power rankings I knew wouldn't be drafted and weren't in my phantom drafts but wanted them on there anyway in Parish and Thompson specifically.

I'm actually disappointed both didn't get greater VFL opportunities and midfield opportunities at that level this year.

Charlie Parish is a hell of a ball winner. And no one works harder than Charlie Thompson out on the field or racks it up like he does or leads like he does out there. If they don't give up on their football, they can as a worst case scenario become among the most dominant in the VFL ranks. They're both just really good footballers. They should have had the kinds of seasons Marcus Lentini had who is one I have inside my top 60 and view as draftable again if not more draftable this year.

Jordon Butts on the other hand was one I hoped would get drafted but wasn't. I still now consider him draftable and continue to view him as a developable key defender. He's one I'd say was unlucky not to make my power rankings again this year and I'll toy with placing him inside my November top 50 honestly.

This year I'm expecting much greater numbers from my top 50 power rankings to miss out on getting drafted because I'm straying a lot further away from those valued in clubland this year with a lot of mature agers in particular on that list who I'm not expecting to get selected. If they are though, they're round one capable and just the types who would only in a situation where they fill a need get selected.

If I was to do a draft re-do of any year, if people were to observe how many who have been overlooked would fit into the best 30 or 40 prospects who were draft eligible in that year, people would be shocked. Even in the most scarce positions - key forward in James Podsiadly and Ben Brown. Brian Lake could have been taken a couple of years earlier. As could Aaron Sandilands. Sam Mitchell. Harry Taylor. Matt Priddis. Sam Fisher. They're just a few top of mind. It's not about whether someone gets drafted or not. It's about whether they can play.

You can bring up guys like Ben Brown, Kyle Hartigan and Anthony Tipungwuti as a few who top of mind I brought up each year until eventually drafted. They're the kinds of selections I give myself the most credit for, those clubs year on year overlook and eventually go get and you vindication when eventually they're drafted and kill it.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Knightmare, it seems clubs have gone into overdrive delisting players who are contracted, or who they still want to free up draft picks, promising to pick them up in the rookie draft.

Who are the ones (if any) you think are worth picking up in the national draft by an opportunistic opposition club?

From memory Geelong were keen on Brad Scheer in his draft year and might have even placed a bid on him? I wouldn't mind if they took a punt on him, as an example..

 

[saintscott]

With players in my power rankings I knew wouldn't be drafted and weren't in my phantom drafts but wanted them on there anyway in Parish and Thompson specifically.

I'm actually disappointed both didn't get greater VFL opportunities and midfield opportunities at that level this year.

Charlie Parish is a hell of a ball winner. And no one works harder than Charlie Thompson out on the field or racks it up like he does or leads like he does out there. If they don't give up on their football, they can as a worst case scenario become among the most dominant in the VFL ranks. They're both just really good footballers. They should have had the kinds of seasons Marcus Lentini had who is one I have inside my top 60 and view as draftable again if not more draftable this year.

Jordon Butts on the other hand was one I hoped would get drafted but wasn't. I still now consider him draftable and continue to view him as a developable key defender. He's one I'd say was unlucky not to make my power rankings again this year and I'll toy with placing him inside my November top 50 honestly.

This year I'm expecting much greater numbers from my top 50 power rankings to miss out on getting drafted because I'm straying a lot further away from those valued in clubland this year with a lot of mature agers in particular on that list who I'm not expecting to get selected. If they are though, they're round one capable and just the types who would only in a situation where they fill a need get selected.

If I was to do a draft re-do of any year, if people were to observe how many who have been overlooked would fit into the best 30 or 40 prospects who were draft eligible in that year, people would be shocked. Even in the most scarce positions - key forward in James Podsiadly and Ben Brown. Brian Lake could have been taken a couple of years earlier. As could Aaron Sandilands. Sam Mitchell. Harry Taylor. Matt Priddis. Sam Fisher. They're just a few top of mind. It's not about whether someone gets drafted or not. It's about whether they can play.

You can bring up guys like Ben Brown, Kyle Hartigan and Anthony Tipungwuti as a few who top of mind I brought up each year until eventually drafted. They're the kinds of selections I give myself the most credit for, those clubs year on year overlook and eventually go get and you vindication when eventually they're drafted and kill it.

Hi km

Solid post as always. For us mere mortals, who are the players that surpised you the most in terms of being busts. Are there any you were really high on that perhaps went lower and proved deservedly so? And do you put that down to a certain factor such as development or professionalism? Or is it more a case of you can only get a read on it to say 80% certainty and the balance is a bit of luck?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, it seems clubs have gone into overdrive delisting players who are contracted, or who they still want to free up draft picks, promising to pick them up in the rookie draft.

Who are the ones (if any) you think are worth picking up in the national draft by an opportunistic opposition club?

From memory Geelong were keen on Brad Scheer in his draft year and might have even placed a bid on him? I wouldn't mind if they took a punt on him, as an example..

I'll just go into those delisted free agents more generally.

Of those younger types scope to improve - Jacob Allison, Brad Scheer, Lachlan Tiziani, Nathan Freeman, Hugh Goddard and Luke Partington in my view should all be senior listed. They'll all developable players who need certainly another season. Would I prioritise a senior list position for any of them? Probably not. But they're players I'd be aware of if I didn't like the options late/rookie and one of those guys can develop into a role I'm looking for.

It's more the established/older guys I like. Daniel Menzel I still rate as a clear best 22 player. Brendon Goddard I consider to have another year in him and for a club looking for use from defence or just a veteran generally I'd recommend him to. Alex Johnson I'd take as a rookie without hesitation after seeing how great he was on return this year - from a professionalism perspective I'm drawn to him and the talk is after his latest surgery he shouldn't have a further reoccurance. Tom Bell and Michael Barlow I consider underused and clubs needing stoppage specialists can find value in them still though I favour a number of this years mature agers for their more complete games.

Hi km

Solid post as always. For us mere mortals, who are the players that surpised you the most in terms of being busts. Are there any you were really high on that perhaps went lower and proved deservedly so? And do you put that down to a certain factor such as development or professionalism? Or is it more a case of you can only get a read on it to say 80% certainty and the balance is a bit of luck?

For some guys I considered top 10 on quality in their draft year and consider misses on my part.

It feels like for the most part there has been a reason when things haven't worked with those I was looking at as can't miss prospects. Reece McKenzie I was the most vocal advocate of in the Paddy McCartin/Peter Wright/Darcy Moore draft - with some ludicrously great games but he left the game after a year for personal reasons.

Waylon Manson I loved in his draft year - he was outplaying Fevola in the NT and looked like an unstoppable mark and goalkicker and a better Liam Jurrah. He of course didn't develop and actually looked a lot worse on The Recruit than he did when of draft age. But what a talent for any who actually watched those NT games streamed on youtube back in the day.

Those two were my most radical misses - guys I promoted strongly to take late but rating extremely high.

Of those others I've rated top 10, there weren't those other really radical misses with these guys at least seen a first half of draft. In terms of being misses on actual career performance to date.

Ben Keays in 2015 I was top-5 high on. He still has time, but hasn't come on as expected. I just thought with the combination of his contested ball winning capabilities and as damaging marking and goalkicking forward, that he was a can't miss prospect and could be a Dayne Beams/Robbie Gray.
Aaron Francis and Mitch Hibberd I had too high at 9/10, though Francis is finally starting to show signs that he may come good. In hindsight I'm not sure why I had Hibberd so high as an outside type who wasn't a good kick. That's not a mistake I'm making again.

Jayden Laverde hasn't come on as hoped and Hugh Goddard I also rated top 10 that year. Though I've since learnt the lessons that if you've got a special/flashy talent like Laverde unless they're reasonably high volume contested ball winners it's not worth the risk. And in the case of Goddard, if as a key defender they're not a prolific intercepter/rebounder they're not worthwhile either. Sam Durdin at 10 on my board that year may be another miss though remains on North's list. He could still come good but needs to take that next step.

Thomas Boyd I felt was terrific but has had his mental health issues which have stopped him from becoming that Tom Hawkins level key forward he probably could have become (I still feel there is a place for those monster key forwards if they're good enough), James Aish I was a lot more hopeful of and he hasn't really come on - again I should probably have looked at that stage higher volume contested and probably for someone of his type looked for someone with more distinct/special points of difference to rate as highly as I did.

Jimmy Toumpas I overrated in 2012 and while he's has the attributes he never developed the contested side of his game - a theme which I've learnt from.

Elliott Kavanagh I felt would have come on better than he did, but just didn't develop into the kind of ball winner expected, nor his ball use.

Sam Day I expected would come on but never has - and that's probably a lesson in - you can have all the attributes and the athletic profile, but if you're not finding enough of it. You're probably not good enough. Joel Wilkinson I flat out loved that year and he's the best athletic specimine we may have ever had in the game - but he just never figured out how to apply it on the field offensively to ever develop into anything.

They're my misses from the top 10 of my draft board over the years with plenty I've learnt from them.

For the most part, I feel up the pointy end of my power rankings I've stacked up well and avoided a lot of the misses or those that look like probable misses clubs made in that early draft range not rating Conca, Sumner, O'Rourke, Freeman, J.Pickett, Schache, Ah Chee or Scrimshaw nearly as high as they were rated of those top 10ers.

 

[Suma Magic]

I'll just go into those delisted free agents more generally.

Of those younger types scope to improve - Jacob Allison, Brad Scheer, Lachlan Tiziani, Nathan Freeman, Hugh Goddard and Luke Partington in my view should all be senior listed. They'll all developable players who need certainly another season. Would I prioritise a senior list position for any of them? Probably not. But they're players I'd be aware of if I didn't like the options late/rookie and one of those guys can develop into a role I'm looking for.

It's more the established/older guys I like. Daniel Menzel I still rate as a clear best 22 player. Brendon Goddard I consider to have another year in him and for a club looking for use from defence or just a veteran generally I'd recommend him to. Alex Johnson I'd take as a rookie without hesitation after seeing how great he was on return this year - from a professionalism perspective I'm drawn to him and the talk is after his latest surgery he shouldn't have a further reoccurance. Tom Bell and Michael Barlow I consider underused and clubs needing stoppage specialists can find value in them still though I favour a number of this years mature agers for their more complete games.



For some guys I considered top 10 on quality in their draft year and consider misses on my part.

It feels like for the most part there has been a reason when things haven't worked with those I was looking at as can't miss prospects. Reece McKenzie I was the most vocal advocate of in the Paddy McCartin/Peter Wright/Darcy Moore draft - with some ludicrously great games but he left the game after a year for personal reasons.

Waylon Manson I loved in his draft year - he was outplaying Fevola in the NT and looked like an unstoppable mark and goalkicker and a better Liam Jurrah. He of course didn't develop and actually looked a lot worse on The Recruit than he did when of draft age. But what a talent for any who actually watched those NT games streamed on youtube back in the day.

Those two were my most radical misses - guys I promoted strongly to take late but rating extremely high.

Of those others I've rated top 10, there weren't those other really radical misses with these guys at least seen a first half of draft. In terms of being misses on actual career performance to date.

Ben Keays in 2015 I was top-5 high on. He still has time, but hasn't come on as expected. I just thought with the combination of his contested ball winning capabilities and as damaging marking and goalkicking forward, that he was a can't miss prospect and could be a Dayne Beams/Robbie Gray.
Aaron Francis and Mitch Hibberd I had too high at 9/10, though Francis is finally starting to show signs that he may come good. In hindsight I'm not sure why I had Hibberd so high as an outside type who wasn't a good kick. That's not a mistake I'm making again.

Jayden Laverde hasn't come on as hoped and Hugh Goddard I also rated top 10 that year. Though I've since learnt the lessons that if you've got a special/flashy talent like Laverde unless they're reasonably high volume contested ball winners it's not worth the risk. And in the case of Goddard, if as a key defender they're not a prolific intercepter/rebounder they're not worthwhile either. Sam Durdin at 10 on my board that year may be another miss though remains on North's list. He could still come good but needs to take that next step.

Thomas Boyd I felt was terrific but has had his mental health issues which have stopped him from becoming that Tom Hawkins level key forward he probably could have become (I still feel there is a place for those monster key forwards if they're good enough), James Aish I was a lot more hopeful of and he hasn't really come on - again I should probably have looked at that stage higher volume contested and probably for someone of his type looked for someone with more distinct/special points of difference to rate as highly as I did.

Jimmy Toumpas I overrated in 2012 and while he's has the attributes he never developed the contested side of his game - a theme which I've learnt from.

Elliott Kavanagh I felt would have come on better than he did, but just didn't develop into the kind of ball winner expected, nor his ball use.

Sam Day I expected would come on but never has - and that's probably a lesson in - you can have all the attributes and the athletic profile, but if you're not finding enough of it. You're probably not good enough. Joel Wilkinson I flat out loved that year and he's the best athletic specimine we may have ever had in the game - but he just never figured out how to apply it on the field offensively to ever develop into anything.

They're my misses from the top 10 of my draft board over the years with plenty I've learnt from them.

For the most part, I feel up the pointy end of my power rankings I've stacked up well and avoided a lot of the misses or those that look like probable misses clubs made in that early draft range not rating Conca, Sumner, O'Rourke, Freeman, J.Pickett, Schache, Ah Chee or Scrimshaw nearly as high as they were rated of those top 10ers.

Maybe your best post. Great to see you review some of your misses.

 

[mattyc75]

Hi km
Who do you think has a better chance of making it,luke foley or Xavier ohallorahan?
Also what do you think fraser turners ceiling is?
Thanks

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Resigned]

Which players over the years whom you weren't convinced on surprised you that they developed into good players?

And can you see either of Charlie Wilson or Hudson Garoni being picked up this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Maybe your best post. Great to see you review some of your misses.

Never afraid to admit misses. We all make them. The key is learning from them in order to minimise future mistakes.

Hi km
Who do you think has a better chance of making it,luke foley or Xavier ohallorahan?
Also what do you think fraser turners ceiling is?
Thanks

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

O'Halloran I favour of the two. Has a wider range of positions I could see him settling into.

If things go right with Fraser Turner he could become something like Sam Gibson. He's largely a low impact, high volume outside accumulator.

Which players over the years whom you weren't convinced on surprised you that they developed into good players?

And can you see either of Charlie Wilson or Hudson Garoni being picked up this year?

Top of mind.

Nat Fyfe I wasn't high on in 2009. Back then he was playing forward through the u18 champs and he'd take mark after mark i50, but then he'd have kicks from the goal square and spray them as bad as just about any junior footballer I've seen. He was one of those after every miss I was putting a line through, it was just that hard to watch, it was like he lacked any kind of confidence at that time.

Tom McDonald and Jeremy McGovern are two I'm filthy on myself for missing and not taking closer notice of. Harris Andrews and would have bid on earlier than he went, but I didn't see becoming as good as he has become and certainly not so quickly.

Elliott Yeo I didn't see coming but probably should have.

Patrick Cripps developed from nowhere and didn't project to become anything like he has developed into as a junior. But there were still some signs that maybe he could with his final WAFL Colts game a 40 disposal effort.

Tom Doedee I wasn't convinced should have been a first round choice but has proven me wrong.

Sean Darcy completely came from nowhere in his first year, with his junior footy nothing dominant.

Wilson and Garoni aren't guys I've put a line through. Both are highly productive and can play. Wilson is a terrific forward and has played really good footy this year. He's top 60 on my draft board. Garoni has done plenty himself and has the size and even slowed late he can get up the ground, so he's one as a rookie I wouldn't say no to.

 

[hoopdaloop]

Gday KM, appreciate your insight each year.
I’ve noticed you don’t have Butters in your top 50 (unless I’ve missed him somewhere), and with Freo taking him in your latest phantom I’d love to know what your thoughts on him are vs what clubs are thinking about him? Is this some mail about freo being into him or just where you think clubs rate him? Cheers mate.

 

[Tandy]

Hey KM,

Do you think Jordan Clark will slide a little after the news that he has Glandular fever?
It can be a huge setback and after it you aren't guaranteed to get back to where you were

 

[blueiris]

Kevin Sheehan picked Curtis Taylor for the Lions in the Road to the Draft Mock Draft at pick 21 what can you tell me about him what kind of player is He

 

[Knightmare]

Gday KM, appreciate your insight each year.
I’ve noticed you don’t have Butters in your top 50 (unless I’ve missed him somewhere), and with Freo taking him in your latest phantom I’d love to know what your thoughts on him are vs what clubs are thinking about him? Is this some mail about freo being into him or just where you think clubs rate him? Cheers mate.

Butters is seen as fitting into Fremantle's range without being that certain selection. Fremantle may well have someone else in mind, but for now he's my best guess at that point with those players available.

Clubs are enchanted by his hurt factor - he has the speed, agility - just gets around guys so easily, has the skills and hurts you with it. He's talented. I'm just not convinced enough by his ball winning capabilities. He doesn't find as much of the ball averaging just the 20 disposals per game and being a low % contested ball winner. I've just seen too many of those types not come along that I'm cautious when they're damaging as Butters is without that contested side all that good.

Hey KM,

Do you think Jordan Clark will slide a little after the news that he has Glandular fever?
It can be a huge setback and after it you aren't guaranteed to get back to where you were

Scott Pendlebury had glandular fever in his first season with Collingwood and he's been one of the competition's best and most consistent these past 10 years.

With draft picks, particularly with those bottom teams more about who they will become rather than being exclusively about who they'll be next season. I'd hope clubs are so shortsighted to drop Clark down on just that basis.

Perhaps if he's exactly evenly matched with another prospect, perhaps as a tiebreaker.

I'm still predicting top 15 and probable top 10 until I hear otherwise.

Kevin Sheehan picked Curtis Taylor for the Lions in the Road to the Draft Mock Draft at pick 21 what can you tell me about him what kind of player is He

He's a poor man's De Goey/Caddy. Has a similar kind of game. Can go through the midfield and win it. Can go forward and take a grab and hurt the opposition. Perhaps not as explosive or athletic and not as productive at the same age/stage. But that kind of game.

 

[Bring back Bas]

With both Adelaide and GWS having 4 picks between 8 and 25 in this draft, I think both clubs are in a really good position to take a couple of risky players with a high upside that other clubs with only 1 pick may be hesitant to take that early. From reading through most of this thread, it sounds like in your opinion Caldwell, RCD, McFadyen and Williams fit this description. Is that right? and are there any other player who will be available in that range who you think have a really high upside but are lower in your rankings because of the risk associated with them? Appreciate the insight as always.

 

[Knightmare]

With both Adelaide and GWS having 4 picks between 8 and 25 in this draft, I think both clubs are in a really good position to take a couple of risky players with a high upside that other clubs with only 1 pick may be hesitant to take that early. From reading through most of this thread, it sounds like in your opinion Caldwell, RCD, McFadyen and Williams fit this description. Is that right? and are there any other player who will be available in that range who you think have a really high upside but are lower in your rankings because of the risk associated with them? Appreciate the insight as always.

RCD definitely I'd go for if after upside. Rankine if he slips through. Blakey, the King's. McFadyen, Caldwell, Sturt, C.Taylor. They're all upside guys and none of them are bad bets inside that first 25 if that's what you're after.

 

[hoopdaloop]

Thanks mate, appreciate your response and insight.

 

[THE_GUN]

Kevin Sheehan picked Curtis Taylor for the Lions in the Road to the Draft Mock Draft at pick 21 what can you tell me about him what kind of player is He

I know the question is directed at KM and has been answered
But if ever i have seen a player that reminded me of another player

Curtis Taylor / Ben Lennon

Hope Curtis has a better career than Lennon

 

[Knightmare]

I know the question is directed at KM and has been answered
But if ever i have seen a player that reminded me of another player

Curtis Taylor / Ben Lennon

Hope Curtis has a better career than Lennon

Didn't rate Lennon in his draft year. I just saw medium forward, nothing special or unique that got me excited about him. He's one I felt I should have had lower than I had, but yielded too much to public pressure on to have around that 20 mark and just term as one I would let someone else take.

Taylor is better than that. The key difference being he's a more capable ball winner through the midfield firstly, but I also look at him as more of a threat deep rather than being just a leadup as I saw Lennon as being more so.

 

[BORIS332]

KM, can you tell me if Luke Bogle is a chance of getting drafted? I note he didn't get an invite to a combine (national or state), which is surprising given he was so dominant in the SANFL? What's the knock?

 

[Bicks]

I know the question is directed at KM and has been answered
But if ever i have seen a player that reminded me of another player

Curtis Taylor / Ben Lennon

Hope Curtis has a better career than Lennon

Far, far more mercurial than Ben Lennon on what I've seen, consistency throughout matches the area he needs to work on IMO, goes missing a little too often.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, can you tell me if Luke Bogle is a chance of getting drafted? I note he didn't get an invite to a combine (national or state), which is surprising given he was so dominant in the SANFL? What's the knock?

A good inside player and distributor. A real head over the ball type.

From what I've seen, I haven't seen him do anything outside the contest as more just a pure stoppage specialist. Haven't seen outside run/hurt factor by foot, has kicked some goals but unsure at the next level whether he makes it as a forward.

I would have invited him to the state combine. He has been a strong performer. I can see him having state league success if he continues his footy and continues to put in the time.

Whether that carries over to AFL play, I'd say he probably needs to develop a few more tricks than just winning it inside.

 

[Davo-27]

Far, far more mercurial than Ben Lennon on what I've seen, consistency throughout matches the area he needs to work on IMO, goes missing a little too often.

yea thats what i have thought too, i think he is highly skilled but a little laconic, so in a different place to Ben Lennon.

 

[saintscott]

I'll just go into those delisted free agents more generally.

Of those younger types scope to improve - Jacob Allison, Brad Scheer, Lachlan Tiziani, Nathan Freeman, Hugh Goddard and Luke Partington in my view should all be senior listed. They'll all developable players who need certainly another season. Would I prioritise a senior list position for any of them? Probably not. But they're players I'd be aware of if I didn't like the options late/rookie and one of those guys can develop into a role I'm looking for.

It's more the established/older guys I like. Daniel Menzel I still rate as a clear best 22 player. Brendon Goddard I consider to have another year in him and for a club looking for use from defence or just a veteran generally I'd recommend him to. Alex Johnson I'd take as a rookie without hesitation after seeing how great he was on return this year - from a professionalism perspective I'm drawn to him and the talk is after his latest surgery he shouldn't have a further reoccurance. Tom Bell and Michael Barlow I consider underused and clubs needing stoppage specialists can find value in them still though I favour a number of this years mature agers for their more complete games.



For some guys I considered top 10 on quality in their draft year and consider misses on my part.

It feels like for the most part there has been a reason when things haven't worked with those I was looking at as can't miss prospects. Reece McKenzie I was the most vocal advocate of in the Paddy McCartin/Peter Wright/Darcy Moore draft - with some ludicrously great games but he left the game after a year for personal reasons.

Waylon Manson I loved in his draft year - he was outplaying Fevola in the NT and looked like an unstoppable mark and goalkicker and a better Liam Jurrah. He of course didn't develop and actually looked a lot worse on The Recruit than he did when of draft age. But what a talent for any who actually watched those NT games streamed on youtube back in the day.

Those two were my most radical misses - guys I promoted strongly to take late but rating extremely high.

Of those others I've rated top 10, there weren't those other really radical misses with these guys at least seen a first half of draft. In terms of being misses on actual career performance to date.

Ben Keays in 2015 I was top-5 high on. He still has time, but hasn't come on as expected. I just thought with the combination of his contested ball winning capabilities and as damaging marking and goalkicking forward, that he was a can't miss prospect and could be a Dayne Beams/Robbie Gray.
Aaron Francis and Mitch Hibberd I had too high at 9/10, though Francis is finally starting to show signs that he may come good. In hindsight I'm not sure why I had Hibberd so high as an outside type who wasn't a good kick. That's not a mistake I'm making again.

Jayden Laverde hasn't come on as hoped and Hugh Goddard I also rated top 10 that year. Though I've since learnt the lessons that if you've got a special/flashy talent like Laverde unless they're reasonably high volume contested ball winners it's not worth the risk. And in the case of Goddard, if as a key defender they're not a prolific intercepter/rebounder they're not worthwhile either. Sam Durdin at 10 on my board that year may be another miss though remains on North's list. He could still come good but needs to take that next step.

Thomas Boyd I felt was terrific but has had his mental health issues which have stopped him from becoming that Tom Hawkins level key forward he probably could have become (I still feel there is a place for those monster key forwards if they're good enough), James Aish I was a lot more hopeful of and he hasn't really come on - again I should probably have looked at that stage higher volume contested and probably for someone of his type looked for someone with more distinct/special points of difference to rate as highly as I did.

Jimmy Toumpas I overrated in 2012 and while he's has the attributes he never developed the contested side of his game - a theme which I've learnt from.

Elliott Kavanagh I felt would have come on better than he did, but just didn't develop into the kind of ball winner expected, nor his ball use.

Sam Day I expected would come on but never has - and that's probably a lesson in - you can have all the attributes and the athletic profile, but if you're not finding enough of it. You're probably not good enough. Joel Wilkinson I flat out loved that year and he's the best athletic specimine we may have ever had in the game - but he just never figured out how to apply it on the field offensively to ever develop into anything.

They're my misses from the top 10 of my draft board over the years with plenty I've learnt from them.

For the most part, I feel up the pointy end of my power rankings I've stacked up well and avoided a lot of the misses or those that look like probable misses clubs made in that early draft range not rating Conca, Sumner, O'Rourke, Freeman, J.Pickett, Schache, Ah Chee or Scrimshaw nearly as high as they were rated of those top 10ers.

Appreciate the response km. I would much rather understand the process and how you fine tune your hit rate than have names floated out. Helps us part timers fine tune our own craft

 

[TheFVK]

Hi knightmare, love your work and all that, your articles for espn are fascinating too. Great to see you representing bigfooty out there.

I'm hearing if Lukosius/Rankine aren't there that Port favour the King twins. Unclear whether that's the final decision, but that's the talk I'm hearing.

On this, one thing I can't understand is why then would Port have driven such a hard bargain with Hawks to swap their Pick 6 for Pick 5? Considering most pundits place Ben King in the 7-10 range. It just doesn't make sense that we'd fight so hard for Pick 5 if we knew he'd slide.

Could we be foxing?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare, love your work and all that, your articles for espn are fascinating too. Great to see you representing bigfooty out there.

On this, one thing I can't understand is why then would Port have driven such a hard bargain with Hawks to swap their Pick 6 for Pick 5? Considering most pundits place Ben King in the 7-10 range. It just doesn't make sense that we'd fight so hard for Pick 5 if we knew he'd slide.

Could we be foxing?

Anything top 6 is right in the sweet spot in this draft.

There is still the chance Rankine slips through. Maybe a trade up of pick 5 + 10 = 2?

Otherwise pick 5 is a nice choice to have. A Max King could get through if Saints go Caldwell as some believe, and in any other year M.King would be in the mix for pick 1 as a better key forward than McCartin and Schache were at the same age/stage based on my views of both at that time.

Smith and B.King are terrific. Caldwell is very highly rated in that range.

So you're getting a good player in that range, irrespective of whether a deal can be struck or who is available.