Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[briztoon]

What would be Brisbane's reasoning behind They're trade with Port Knights what is next years first round like heard it's very Compromised strange trade for mine

You look at @Knightmare’s phantom draft, and I believe he pretty much nailed the first 16 players who get drafted. Won’t be the right order, but the names look right to me.

There might be one or two possible exceptions, maybe Bergman and Weightman could be swapped for Trent Rivers and Josh Worrell.

Pick 16 is outside the sweet spot this year in the first round with those better players to go inside the first 12, or maybe 13/14 in the minds of some clubs. I don't see it as being much different to 29.

Port Adelaide's 2020 first I'd expect will come before pick 16, so it overall improved Brisbane's draft hand inside the first two rounds between this year and next year.

This. I’ve been saying this for the last couple of months.

We apparently were offering pick 16 and 21 to move up in to the top 10 this year. Doesn’t look like there were any takers.

So we moved 16, and two late 3rd round picks for a potential future top 10 pick and a mid second round pick.

Personally I’m not as high on the talent outside the top 30, but you never know, we could nab a slider or two.

 

[Knightmare]

Not too sure how Port can facilitate a trade with teams like GWS / Fremantle if bids come early for these players as the incoming picks from Port would just get swallowed up as points ?

New this year - clubs can exchange picks after a bid is made. This is why Port made the trade they did.

 

[briztoon]

Not too sure how Port can facilitate a trade with teams like GWS / Fremantle if bids come early for these players as the incoming picks from Port would just get swallowed up as points ?

Port trade 16 and 18 for 10 and a late pick. If a bid comes at pick 8, 16 gets swallowed up, and 18 moves back to picks 23 or 24.

So Fremantle get an extra early second round pick. Should be two or three WA kids around those picks if they want to keep local talent.

 

[THE_GUN]

Port trade 16 and 18 for 10 and a late pick. If a bid comes at pick 8, 16 gets swallowed up, and 18 moves back to picks 23 or 24.

So Fremantle get an extra early second round pick. Should be two or three WA kids around those picks if they want to keep local talent.

Dont think they would be giving up #10 to get some late 2nd round pick when they would be more likely to trade into 1st rounder next year and some points picks later in 2019.

 

[jakkowiz]

You look at @Knightmare’s phantom draft, and I believe he pretty much nailed the first 16 players who get drafted. Won’t be the right order, but the names look right to me.

There might be one or two possible exceptions, maybe Bergman and Weightman could be swapped for Trent Rivers and Josh Worrell.


This. I’ve been saying this for the last couple of months.

We apparently were offering pick 16 and 21 to move up in to the top 10 this year. Doesn’t look like there were any takers.

So we moved 16, and two late 3rd round picks for a potential future top 10 pick and a mid second round pick.

Personally I’m not as high on the talent outside the top 30, but you never know, we could nab a slider or two.

i also think most clubs think there is a huge drop off in talent after pick 15, clubs seem to be happy to trade late first and second round picks, great trade by brisbane, if this is proven, interesting if port think different, or they plan to use p16 to help them move up.

 

[briztoon]

Dont think they would be giving up #10 to get some late 2nd round pick when they would be more likely to trade into 1st rounder next year and some points picks later in 2019.

The whole point for Fremantle will be to also protect pick 22 from being used up or pushed back in matching the bid.

If Fremantle trade out only pick 10, they can only trade back in one 2019 pick (plus what ever future pick/s) due to the rule of only being able to have the same amount of picks as list spots.

It would be a minor disaster for Fremantle to lose pick 10 and see pick 22 down graded as well.

 

[Bennie the Nurse]

I don’t think Port will be bundling up their first round picks and trading for one pick in the top 5.
Simply there are players in some “top 10s” that are in the “top 25” in others, so apart from the top 4 or 5 there’s arguably a fairly even group amongst the next 15-20.
I believe that Port will take their 3 picks and hope that Jackson Mead hasn’t been bid on in that time.
They will then match any bid on F/S Jackson Mead after that ........ makes sense.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Why the need for points?

Complicates things and hurts my bloody head.

 

[THE_GUN]

I don’t think Port will be bundling up their first round picks and trading for one pick in the top 5.
Simply there are players in some “top 10s” that are in the “top 25” in others, so apart from the top 4 or 5 there’s arguably a fairly even group amongst the next 15-20.
I believe that Port will take their 3 picks and hope that Jackson Mead hasn’t been bid on in that time.
They will then match any bid on F/S Jackson Mead after that ........ makes sense.

Personally i agree , Port did well last year with their 3 selections and would be confident of doing the same plus mead as a bonus
they will be confident in bringing in 4 top 20 boys

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Why the need for points?

Complicates things and hurts my bloody head.

Because without points clubs get Daniher for 10, Heeney for 18 and Viney for 26.

 

[Andre the Giant]

You rate our mids right now way too much. Papley especially shouldn’t be playing mid- you are robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak. He’s an elite HF, rather leave him there.

Our midfield needs help this draft then add Gulden next year that’s a start. Rowbottom last year helped massively. That’s the type we need genuine mids. It’s mainly the first pick in the second round I personally would have issues with- the other two, they are fine and around the mark. I Expect us to take the player you have us taking at 6 if he’s there unfortunately even though I don’t want him personally.

I must admit I also feel Sydney need to improve their midfield. Mills might have played some midfield as a junior but is very much a defender. Heeney’s value with his marking ability is as a forward. The rest? Nothing that scares anyone and a couple of blokes just about to fall off the cliff.

Tom Green is exactly what they need but in his absence Stephens or Robertson probably make the most sense imo.

 

[Knightmare]

I don’t think Port will be bundling up their first round picks and trading for one pick in the top 5.
Simply there are players in some “top 10s” that are in the “top 25” in others, so apart from the top 4 or 5 there’s arguably a fairly even group amongst the next 15-20.
I believe that Port will take their 3 picks and hope that Jackson Mead hasn’t been bid on in that time.
They will then match any bid on F/S Jackson Mead after that ........ makes sense.

Clubs have strong views on those inside the top-5 and top-10. Clubs are working hard to try to get into the top-10. Melbourne paid an awful lot to get up to pick 8, and it's going to take a similarly impressive deal for any other clubs to move up. There remain multiple clubs motivated, and with picks outside the top-15 not much better than those around 25 based on my own evaluation, it's going to take a fair bit for clubs to willingly move down.

 

[troyjones2525]

Hey KM, How many of those Port Adelaide picks do you think they would give up if the Swans had pick 5 on offer (If any).

Would be interesting if we had multiple first round picks rather than just the one near the top.

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[robbo1981]

Anyone think maginness gets bid on before Hawks first pick at 11?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I must admit I also feel Sydney need to improve their midfield. Mills might have played some midfield as a junior but is very much a defender. Heeney’s value with his marking ability is as a forward. The rest? Nothing that scares anyone and a couple of blokes just about to fall off the cliff.

Tom Green is exactly what they need but in his absence Stephens or Robertson probably make the most sense imo.

Yep, as I said not completely against taking Jackson if he's there at 5/6 but otherwise I'd be going for a mid. In fact I'd be taking mids on 3 out of 4 picks as a minimum. If Green is there, absolute certainty for us to bid though not that it will make a difference.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare no chance of robertson falling to the cats?? We are really disliking what we are getting over on our board with your phantom picks

Coming from information from chatting to clubs or your own gut feel??

 

[Lach72]

Knightmare no chance of robertson falling to the cats?? We are really disliking what we are getting over on our board with your phantom picks

Coming from information from chatting to clubs or your own gut feel??

I love it personally for us. If it happens as he says and Henry gets bid on after ten, and assuming you haven’t traded up, any interest in 2020 round one for 17 and 24?

 

[Ah12]

Knightmare no chance of robertson falling to the cats?? We are really disliking what we are getting over on our board with your phantom picks

Coming from information from chatting to clubs or your own gut feel??

Bergmann, worrell & sharp id be very happy with that if i were geelong with your current picks.

 

[Basssman]

Unbelievably that's closer to the top rather than the bottom of Gould's projected range. He's looking like a 20-40, maybe even 20-50 pick. And I agree with you Gould looks like a ripper and one of the likely bargains in this pool.

I personally prefer Riccardi, but in clubland Georgiades has received a lot of interest but haven't heard as much around Riccardi. My phantom drafts take out my personal views and is my best attempt to reflect what clubs are thinking.

Hey nightmare what’s the Knock all of sudden from all clubs on Gould? Back to back all Australian who only improved his draft stocks imo with his performances in the SANFL this year.

I’m hoping the Suns grab him if he gets to 20 as we could do with a good distributor out of defence and more depth with our backs.


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[Revan11]

Clubs have strong views on those inside the top-5 and top-10. Clubs are working hard to try to get into the top-10. Melbourne paid an awful lot to get up to pick 8, and it's going to take a similarly impressive deal for any other clubs to move up. There remain multiple clubs motivated, and with picks outside the top-15 not much better than those around 25 based on my own evaluation, it's going to take a fair bit for clubs to willingly move down.

We were already in the top 10 pre Howard trade. Why would we give up two firsts to get to 10 again?

 

[Fear The Beard]

Anyone think maginness gets bid on before Hawks first pick at 11?

Absolutely no chance.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I love it personally for us. If it happens as he says and Henry gets bid on after ten, and assuming you haven’t traded up, any interest in 2020 round one for 17 and 24?

Nope. No chance of that given next year is a heavily compromised draft.

How about 14/24 for pick 7??

That way you get an extra first round selection in this year making it 3 first rounders instead of 2

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Bergmann, worrell & sharp id be very happy with that if i were geelong with your current picks.

Would rather trade up and secure Robertson if he is available at pick 6 or 7.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Since we'll very possibly have Frawley, Frost, Hartley, Kosi, O'Brien and McEvoy all on our list who have played or can play as tall defenders in recent times, I really can't see Hawthorn taking Fisher McAsey like most seem to be speculating. If your team needs a tall defender and you have a pick in the 8-16 range i'd say you are a much better chance of taking than the Hawks are.

 

[ML4Hodgy]

Since we'll very possibly have Frawley, Frost, Hartley, Kosi, O'Brien and McEvoy all on our list who have played or can play as tall defenders in recent times, I really can't see Hawthorn taking Fisher McAsey like most seem to be speculating. If your team needs a tall defender and you have a pick in the 8-16 range i'd say you are a much better chance of taking than the Hawks are.

Hawks will take best available at 11. If that’s McAsey then that’s who we’ll take. We’ll fill needs later or with mature talent (like Hartley).
There’s lots of areas on the field that could be improved, but no clear glaring positional weakness in the 22 (ie spot that we are shifting other players into to fill a gap).