Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Out of curiosity, who do you rate as having a better off-season than Carlton considering what was given up and what was brought in?


We started with pick 9, 41, 46, 73, 82 before trade period and did some pick shuffles which canceled each other out, but the end result you could argue that our ins and out's were effectively,

OUT:

Philips
2020 4th rounder
Draft picks 9, 41, 46, 73, 82 (bolded to indicate that only 65 players were taken in the draft)

IN:

Eddie Betts - good for 30+ goals in 2020
Pittonet - will likely be first ruck by 2021
Martin - will be a game changer. Fills a big hole on our list.
Newnes - 26 year old 150 gamer
Kemp - you had him in your top five before his ACL
Sam Philp - was fastest over 20, top 10 vertical leap, top 10 yoyo
Sam Ramsay

The only valuable commodities lost were arguably pick 9 and maybe 41 and 46. We would have coughed up those 3 picks for Kemp and Philp alone. Pretty decent haul. On face value, it appears that SOS the master has indeed done it again. Give the man an A+ Knightmare

Not a lot of clubs. I'd say other than Carlton the other winners were:

Gold Coast while the correct description for their trade for pick 27 I regard as knuckle-headed had the best off-season of all. Rowell and Anderson is nailing picks 1/2. Trading up to Flanders is fantastic. That's three genuine stars to build around. Gold Coast now have a super seven with Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Rowell/Anderson/Flanders and I'd throw Ballard into that group as that genuine core to build around for the future. Getting three players of that calibre is a game-changer and gives them genuine hope for the future for the first time in a long time. Greenwood I also felt represented solid value though Ellis I query as a fit as someone I feel will struggle on a bad (young) team that doesn't necessarily have the quality of established ball winners inside or play a high enough possession game to allow him to be all that useful.

Geelong I felt did particularly well also. Losing Kelly is a devastating loss, but they added Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins for well unders and they did well to load up on draft picks for this year/next year. Geelong's trade to secure Gold Coast's 2020 mid first rounded was incredible.

North Melbourne had a really nice offseason also. Other than Mahony I didn't rate their draft and I thought they drafted worse than Carlton as per my post-draft winners/losers piece. But adding Josh Walker as a delisted free agent (I rate him highly even if clubs don't). Making that trade for Melbourne's 2020 first round, adding Bonar so cheaply. They're good gets.

Brisbane I liked. I thought their decision to delist Walker was a poor move despite their considerable key defence depth as my view is he is genuine best 22. But otherwise, drafting Deven Robertson is superb and the trade was worth it. Their trade with Port Adelaide that secured the Power's 2020 first I also consider a substantial win. Ellis-Yolman and Birchall I like as free agents.

Western Bulldogs getting Alex Keath and Josh Bruce for me is a meaningful upgrade. I didn't like their draft, but not giving up anything meaningful for either of them and adding Weightman who is an ok forward to that is still a good offseason.

Of those Gold Coast I feel did better than Carlton with Geelong, North Melbourne and Brisbane those other two sides I'd give a slight edge to over Carlton with those future firsts gained a big part of that.

This brings me onto a key point that is worth discussion. One thing that hasn't been spoken much about is how cheaply clubs gave away their 2020 first and second round picks. For mine those moves respectively were all knuckle-headed and lack appreciation for the value of those picks. Even if due to the compromised nature of next year's draft it works out that each pick is worth marginally less than this year, clubs aren't considering closely enough that those picks can be used next year to trade for players, trade for picks if clubs get desperate to get into that specific spot in the draft or to still move for future picks. Once a trade period has happened, my view is picks instantly lose value from that point forward because there is no longer that capacity to flip those picks for players. I think that's the one part clubs aren't properly appreciating/understanding.

What do you take from 18 AFL clubs passing over guys you rate? How does it feed into your future talent assessment?

Knowing I've rated players in the past who have gotten drafted sometimes the next year, sometimes years later, if a club passes on a player I rate in a given year, I'm not worried about that in the slightest and I don't think other talent identifiers should either. My interest if someone has been passed over then turns to how they go from this point onwards and whether they perform to or above/below expectation from here and re-assess those hits/misses in the future and then from there guide any future learnings.

It would have been easy last year to get down on myself for having Sydney Stack inside my top 20 for a period and inside my final top 25. Looking back and seeing Stack later selected in the pre-season supplemental period and having the season he had (even far exceeding my own expectations despite rating him radically higher than clubs did). So he's the exact reason and one of many cases where I can sit back and say with confidence it's not about looking towards what clubs are thinking about players as confirmation about whether I'm right about a decision but instead waiting to see how their careers actually play out and then learning only once there is evidence/information that can be collected from that.

 

[I got the outside word]

Hey Knightmare, do you have an idea of who the top 10 academy/father son picks are at this stage for next year?

 

[andleanback]

Not a lot of clubs. I'd say other than Carlton the other winners were:

Gold Coast while the correct description for their trade for pick 27 I regard as knuckle-headed had the best off-season of all. Rowell and Anderson is nailing picks 1/2. Trading up to Flanders is fantastic. That's three genuine stars to build around. Gold Coast now have a super seven with Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Rowell/Anderson/Flanders and I'd throw Ballard into that group as that genuine core to build around for the future. Getting three players of that calibre is a game-changer and gives them genuine hope for the future for the first time in a long time. Greenwood I also felt represented solid value though Ellis I query as a fit as someone I feel will struggle on a bad (young) team that doesn't necessarily have the quality of established ball winners inside or play a high enough possession game to allow him to be all that useful.

Geelong I felt did particularly well also. Losing Kelly is a devastating loss, but they added Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins for well unders and they did well to load up on draft picks for this year/next year. Geelong's trade to secure Gold Coast's 2020 mid first rounded was incredible.

North Melbourne had a really nice offseason also. Other than Mahony I didn't rate their draft and I thought they drafted worse than Carlton as per my post-draft winners/losers piece. But adding Josh Walker as a delisted free agent (I rate him highly even if clubs don't). Making that trade for Melbourne's 2020 first round, adding Bonar so cheaply. They're good gets.

Brisbane I liked. I thought their decision to delist Walker was a poor move despite their considerable key defence depth as my view is he is genuine best 22. But otherwise, drafting Deven Robertson is superb and the trade was worth it. Their trade with Port Adelaide that secured the Power's 2020 first I also consider a substantial win. Ellis-Yolman and Birchall I like as free agents.

Western Bulldogs getting Alex Keath and Josh Bruce for me is a meaningful upgrade. I didn't like their draft, but not giving up anything meaningful for either of them and adding Weightman who is an ok forward to that is still a good offseason.

Of those Gold Coast I feel did better than Carlton with Geelong, North Melbourne and Brisbane those other two sides I'd give a slight edge to over Carlton with those future firsts gained a big part of that.

This brings me onto a key point that is worth discussion. One thing that hasn't been spoken much about is how cheaply clubs gave away their 2020 first and second round picks. For mine those moves respectively were all knuckle-headed and lack appreciation for the value of those picks. Even if due to the compromised nature of next year's draft it works out that each pick is worth marginally less than this year, clubs aren't considering closely enough that those picks can be used next year to trade for players, trade for picks if clubs get desperate to get into that specific spot in the draft or to still move for future picks. Once a trade period has happened, my view is picks instantly lose value from that point forward because there is no longer that capacity to flip those picks for players. I think that's the one part clubs aren't properly appreciating/understanding.



Knowing I've rated players in the past who have gotten drafted sometimes the next year, sometimes years later, if a club passes on a player I rate in a given year, I'm not worried about that in the slightest and I don't think other talent identifiers should either. My interest if someone has been passed over then turns to how they go from this point onwards and whether they perform to or above/below expectation from here and re-assess those hits/misses in the future and then from there guide any future learnings.

It would have been easy last year to get down on myself for having Sydney Stack inside my top 20 for a period and inside my final top 25. Looking back and seeing Stack later selected in the pre-season supplemental period and having the season he had (even far exceeding my own expectations despite rating him radically higher than clubs did). So he's the exact reason and one of many cases where I can sit back and say with confidence it's not about looking towards what clubs are thinking about players as confirmation about whether I'm right about a decision but instead waiting to see how their careers actually play out and then learning only once there is evidence/information that can be collected from that.

I don’t think it’s fair to say afl clubs didn’t rate stack as highly. They probably had him top 20 on talent as well, they just thought his personal life/ issues made him a high risk and undraftable at that time.

 

[MarcLocksCrustySock]

Not a lot of clubs. I'd say other than Carlton the other winners were:

Gold Coast while the correct description for their trade for pick 27 I regard as knuckle-headed had the best off-season of all. Rowell and Anderson is nailing picks 1/2. Trading up to Flanders is fantastic. That's three genuine stars to build around. Gold Coast now have a super seven with Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Rowell/Anderson/Flanders and I'd throw Ballard into that group as that genuine core to build around for the future. Getting three players of that calibre is a game-changer and gives them genuine hope for the future for the first time in a long time. Greenwood I also felt represented solid value though Ellis I query as a fit as someone I feel will struggle on a bad (young) team that doesn't necessarily have the quality of established ball winners inside or play a high enough possession game to allow him to be all that useful.

Geelong I felt did particularly well also. Losing Kelly is a devastating loss, but they added Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins for well unders and they did well to load up on draft picks for this year/next year. Geelong's trade to secure Gold Coast's 2020 mid first rounded was incredible.

North Melbourne had a really nice offseason also. Other than Mahony I didn't rate their draft and I thought they drafted worse than Carlton as per my post-draft winners/losers piece. But adding Josh Walker as a delisted free agent (I rate him highly even if clubs don't). Making that trade for Melbourne's 2020 first round, adding Bonar so cheaply. They're good gets.

Brisbane I liked. I thought their decision to delist Walker was a poor move despite their considerable key defence depth as my view is he is genuine best 22. But otherwise, drafting Deven Robertson is superb and the trade was worth it. Their trade with Port Adelaide that secured the Power's 2020 first I also consider a substantial win. Ellis-Yolman and Birchall I like as free agents.

Western Bulldogs getting Alex Keath and Josh Bruce for me is a meaningful upgrade. I didn't like their draft, but not giving up anything meaningful for either of them and adding Weightman who is an ok forward to that is still a good offseason.

Of those Gold Coast I feel did better than Carlton with Geelong, North Melbourne and Brisbane those other two sides I'd give a slight edge to over Carlton with those future firsts gained a big part of that.

This brings me onto a key point that is worth discussion. One thing that hasn't been spoken much about is how cheaply clubs gave away their 2020 first and second round picks. For mine those moves respectively were all knuckle-headed and lack appreciation for the value of those picks. Even if due to the compromised nature of next year's draft it works out that each pick is worth marginally less than this year, clubs aren't considering closely enough that those picks can be used next year to trade for players, trade for picks if clubs get desperate to get into that specific spot in the draft or to still move for future picks. Once a trade period has happened, my view is picks instantly lose value from that point forward because there is no longer that capacity to flip those picks for players. I think that's the one part clubs aren't properly appreciating/understanding.



Knowing I've rated players in the past who have gotten drafted sometimes the next year, sometimes years later, if a club passes on a player I rate in a given year, I'm not worried about that in the slightest and I don't think other talent identifiers should either. My interest if someone has been passed over then turns to how they go from this point onwards and whether they perform to or above/below expectation from here and re-assess those hits/misses in the future and then from there guide any future learnings.

It would have been easy last year to get down on myself for having Sydney Stack inside my top 20 for a period and inside my final top 25. Looking back and seeing Stack later selected in the pre-season supplemental period and having the season he had (even far exceeding my own expectations despite rating him radically higher than clubs did). So he's the exact reason and one of many cases where I can sit back and say with confidence it's not about looking towards what clubs are thinking about players as confirmation about whether I'm right about a decision but instead waiting to see how their careers actually play out and then learning only once there is evidence/information that can be collected from that.

The AFL have said they will take away our concessions if we start performing. That is why we traded it out early to hedge.

James Brayshaw IQ = 4

 

[Kangas_11]

This brings me onto a key point that is worth discussion. One thing that hasn't been spoken much about is how cheaply clubs gave away their 2020 first and second round picks. For mine those moves respectively were all knuckle-headed and lack appreciation for the value of those picks. Even if due to the compromised nature of next year's draft it works out that each pick is worth marginally less than this year, clubs aren't considering closely enough that those picks can be used next year to trade for players, trade for picks if clubs get desperate to get into that specific spot in the draft or to still move for future picks.

Hey KM, just on the point above, do you think clubs may have jumped the gun on getting out of the 2020 draft due to a bit of the collective groupthink about the compromised nature of next year's crop?

It seems like the general consensus is that it's a weak and compromised draft, but the weak comments were also said about this year's draft.

In particular, Melbourne and Port were very keen to trade their first rounders, despite the possibility that those picks could be top 5 selections. Do you think front offices might also have the same issue as bigfooty in underestimating next year's draft?

 

[premiershipvigil]

Thanks for all your work KM

I was really hoping Melboure would draft Elijah Taylor as we were 2nd lowest scoring team last season and he looks like he might be a star but content to see us go for Trent Rivers instead as we need better half backs.

Do you think Rivers was the better option?

 

[Trav 20]

Melbourne will be hoping to develop Jackson to be a key forward who can relieve through the ruck and maybe even start as a big mid at some stoppages. It's an interesting vision. High risk and not what I would have done. Two years from now the stories around Jackson more likely will be - why didn't they bid on Green and/or take Young instead who was that other player they considered and while not my preferred option would have been a better option.

You've nailed your credibility to the mast with this one. ''Egregious'' (from another post) - amusing. Egregious is having Hugh Goddard at 9 and de Goey at 17 in your 2014 power rankings.

Btw, it's obvious why they didn't bid on Green and it won't change whether Jackson is a boom or bust. They rated him higher than Green and didn't want to risk losing him to GWS. Surely, and I mean surely, that's obvious.

 

[Clems Knee]

You've nailed your credibility to the mast with this one. ''Egregious'' (from another post) - amusing. Egregious is having Hugh Goddard at 9 and de Goey at 17 in your 2014 power rankings.

Btw, it's obvious why they didn't bid on Green and it won't change whether Jackson is a boom or bust. They rated him higher than Green and didn't want to risk losing him to GWS. Surely, and I mean surely, that's obvious.

I would love to see your thoughts on the draft hopefuls next season. Then we’ll be able to see if you have any credibility worth nailing anywhere.

 

[wilbur_15]

Joshua Shute (29), Angus Baker (35), Ben Sokol (36) the last three from inside my top-40 power rankings.
Haiden Schloithe (didn't nominate), Jye Bolton, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are all guys I would have drafted.

Hi KM, how do you rate Pasini vs Hilder and Finlay and any other KPDs of note that went undrafted?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, do you have an idea of who the top 10 academy/father son picks are at this stage for next year?

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (WBD NGA), Reef McInnes (Coll NGA), Luke Edwards (Adel F/S), Alex Davies (GC Academy), Errol Gulden (Syd Academy), Braeden Campbell (Syd Academy), Connor Downie (Haw NGA) and Taj Schofield (PA F/S) are the good ones at this stage. The others are more speculative outside 30 types at this stage.

There are something like another 10 though I have as draft chances at this early stage for a rough feel for just how compromised next year's draft will be.

I don’t think it’s fair to say afl clubs didn’t rate stack as highly. They probably had him top 20 on talent as well, they just thought his personal life/ issues made him a high risk and undraftable at that time.

Clubs had the chance to take Stack in the rookie draft. As rookies, you're only paying them for one year. So he's the exact type of player clubs should have drafted as a rookie if that concerned.

I didn't share the concern of clubs on Stack. In talking to a Western Australian closer to the situation who I trusted I got the all-clear as someone who in an AFL environment would put in the work and who had turned himself and his professional standards around considerably.

Ultimately with my own draft board I'm not talking to players, interviewing their families or doing any of that. So I'll cop my misses when they happen - Waylon Manson/Reece McKenzie/Dayle Garlett in his original draft year, but then also when I get my Stack's and M.Pickett's I'll similarly claim them as my own. You're as a recruiter only as good as your draft board and who you are prepaired to take at a given selection.

The AFL have said they will take away our concessions if we start performing. That is why we traded it out early to hedge.

James Brayshaw IQ = 4

I don't think it's realistic for Gold Coast to 'start performing' next season. Gold Coast drafted exceptionally well but having drafted so well that youth will play. And when youth plays, inconsistent results tend to happen with few wins coming. With Gold Coast's % of 60% last year. 18% worse than the next worst club in Melbourne who themselves should have a better season in 2020, it's hard to see Gold Coast finishing anywhere other than dead last again in 2020. Watching the kids will be fun though and seeing their improvement will be something as that young, next generation core is really starting to take shape with already seven future A-graders in Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Rowell/Anderson/Flanders/Ballard now in place - assuming Gold Coast's player development improves.

Hey KM, just on the point above, do you think clubs may have jumped the gun on getting out of the 2020 draft due to a bit of the collective groupthink about the compromised nature of next year's crop?

It seems like the general consensus is that it's a weak and compromised draft, but the weak comments were also said about this year's draft.

In particular, Melbourne and Port were very keen to trade their first rounders, despite the possibility that those picks could be top 5 selections. Do you think front offices might also have the same issue as bigfooty in underestimating next year's draft?

A bit of the collective group think and a bit of having guys available they rated much higher than their eventual draft position compelling them to trade up and pay well overs to do so.

I actually see next year's draft as being better than this year's, the difference that may make it seem worse to a small extent is that it's compromised. This year is a below average draft anyway in my view so I see a far too large adjustment as having happened. I think Melbourne and Port Adelaide will pay be haunted by their decisions to trade their 2020 firsts.

Had Collingwood as one example not traded their 2019 first last year in that Beams trade - they could have secured Deven Robertson, Josh Worrell or Harrison Jones. They'd likely be loving any one of those guys right now, aside from the 2018 first round pick they moved last year.

Thanks for all your work KM

I was really hoping Melboure would draft Elijah Taylor as we were 2nd lowest scoring team last season and he looks like he might be a star but content to see us go for Trent Rivers instead as we need better half backs.

Do you think Rivers was the better option?

Rivers for me of the pair I evaluate as the better player. He has the production on the board and Taylor while talented doesn't find as much of it or hit the scoreboard or pressure to the level I'd like him to, to rate inside my top-20. Melbourne got their forward earlier in Pickett and Rivers adds much needed class and pace through the midfield and off half-back.

You've nailed your credibility to the mast with this one. ''Egregious'' (from another post) - amusing. Egregious is having Hugh Goddard at 9 and de Goey at 17 in your 2014 power rankings.

Btw, it's obvious why they didn't bid on Green and it won't change whether Jackson is a boom or bust. They rated him higher than Green and didn't want to risk losing him to GWS. Surely, and I mean surely, that's obvious.

Most clubs favoured Jackson over Green. There might have only been 3/4 clubs that favoured Green. My evaluation agrees with the small minority.

De Goey I actually rated at 14 fyi. Goddard I actually rated at 16: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

Obviously in hindsight I'd rate De Goey much higher and Goddard not at all. Goddard I expected would develop a lot better. Perhaps St Kilda's lacking youth development of the time had some impact on that. And maybe being exposed to a positive culture at Collingwood benefitted De Goey and has allowed for him to fulfil his potential? My view since towards KPPs has changed a fair bit since. With key defenders I look at lot more at guys who intercept and win their 1v1s with those who don't rebound/intercept largely not on my board anymore. De Goey under my revised analysis I've learnt a lot from underrating also and have since placed a greater value on contested ball winners with an element of power to them.

Looking back at 2014, I feel like I made a lot of good calls. Rating Corey Ellis 50 early on I should have stuck with and it was a mistake in my revised draft moving him up to 25, I should have stuck with my own instincts and not gotten sucked in. Top 20 pick Blaine Boekhorst I didn't have inside my top-40, and originally didn't have inside my top 50 but again got sucked in by the calls he would go early - something I no longer do. Top-30 picks Pat McKenna, Daniel Nielson, Lukas Webb or Dillon Viojo-Rainbow were not inside my top-50, and McKenna who I didn't rate should have remained off my draft board but again at that time I was getting slightly sucked into group think and giving a tiny bit of weighting towards that. It brings me back to backing yourself. Don't just have guys on your draft board because clubs rate them or other rates them. Back your own evaluation and you don't have to get sucked into guys who are overrated. Paddy McCartin I rated at 5th which is another interesting one in hindsight from that year. Harris Andrews I should have had higher than I did though still rated more than 20 positions higher than he eventually went.

Of course in 2014 I missed on Reece McKenzie, though I was not to know mental health issues would see him walk away from the game in his second season. Peter Bampton I arguably shouldn't have rated inside my top 35, though his SANFL League play has been good for a few years now so I'd still argue he should have been given a chance. Jayden Laverde and Kyle Langford were my early draft misses that year and two I overrated, though I still do find their lack of development surprising given Laverde's attributes and the rate of improvement Langford showed before joining Essendon. Might the Bombers have issue developing talent?

It's one of a few drafts I really learnt the lesson to back my own evaluations and block out the noise.

Hi KM, how do you rate Pasini vs Hilder and Finlay and any other KPDs of note that went undrafted?

Pasini actually got rookied by Port Adelaide. I look at him as a dour defender who doesn't intercept/rebound enough for my liking.

Hilder and Finlay I rated. Brodie Newman and Nick Murray were the two others I rated. All in my 45-55 range. All really nice intercept marks and strong 1v1. They're the things I look for in key defenders. For mine they're all very developable. As a group I really hope they all continue on with their footy because I can see them each becoming monsters in the various state leagues in no time.

 

[Knightmare]

My 2020 top-20 AFL Draft prospects: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28191579/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2020

 

[northeasttiger]

Hi Knightmare Richmond has stocked up with midfielders heavily in the last two drafts with eight out of nine picks spent on midfielders.(excluding rookie picks)

How do you rate this years draft crop of midfielders?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare Richmond has stocked up with midfielders heavily in the last two drafts with eight out of nine picks spent on midfielders.(excluding rookie picks)

How do you rate this years draft crop of midfielders?

I've loved Richmond's last few drafts including the pickups of Stack/Pickett since.

This draft however I don't feel any excitement about Richmond's selections other than their last pick in Bigoa Nyuon as a key defender: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28184505/afl-draft-every-club-draft-haul-rated

Cumberland was the other relatively more interesting pick to me that I don't dislike given his attributes, though he's more either a def/fwd than a mid.

 

[Mojorisin]

Reef McInnes (Coll NGA), Luke Edwards (Adel F/S), Alex Davies (GC Academy), Errol Gulden (Syd Academy), Braeden Campbell (Syd Academy), Connor Downie (Haw NGA) and Taj Schofield (PA F/S) are the good ones at this stage. The others are more speculative outside 30 types at this stage.

What about jamarra?

 

[Knightmare]

What about jamarra?

Thought I listed him at the time of the post. Edited to include. He's easily the best of that group. The others for me are more will they/won't they be top-10 guys.

 

[Mojorisin]

Thought I listed him at the time of the post. Edited to include. He's easily the best of that group. The others for me are more will they/won't they be top-10 guys.

Alex Davies will be an interesting one could work out essentially as another free first rounder given the sun's can pre select him

 

[andleanback]

Thought I listed him at the time of the post. Edited to include. He's easily the best of that group. The others for me are more will they/won't they be top-10 guys.

Alex Davies getting to Gold Coast as a rookie is an absolute score for them.

 

[MarcLocksCrustySock]

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (WBD NGA), Reef McInnes (Coll NGA), Luke Edwards (Adel F/S), Alex Davies (GC Academy), Errol Gulden (Syd Academy), Braeden Campbell (Syd Academy), Connor Downie (Haw NGA) and Taj Schofield (PA F/S) are the good ones at this stage. The others are more speculative outside 30 types at this stage.

There are something like another 10 though I have as draft chances at this early stage for a rough feel for just how compromised next year's draft will be.



Clubs had the chance to take Stack in the rookie draft. As rookies, you're only paying them for one year. So he's the exact type of player clubs should have drafted as a rookie if that concerned.

I didn't share the concern of clubs on Stack. In talking to a Western Australian closer to the situation who I trusted I got the all-clear as someone who in an AFL environment would put in the work and who had turned himself and his professional standards around considerably.

Ultimately with my own draft board I'm not talking to players, interviewing their families or doing any of that. So I'll cop my misses when they happen - Waylon Manson/Reece McKenzie/Dayle Garlett in his original draft year, but then also when I get my Stack's and M.Pickett's I'll similarly claim them as my own. You're as a recruiter only as good as your draft board and who you are prepaired to take at a given selection.



I don't think it's realistic for Gold Coast to 'start performing' next season. Gold Coast drafted exceptionally well but having drafted so well that youth will play. And when youth plays, inconsistent results tend to happen with few wins coming. With Gold Coast's % of 60% last year. 18% worse than the next worst club in Melbourne who themselves should have a better season in 2020, it's hard to see Gold Coast finishing anywhere other than dead last again in 2020. Watching the kids will be fun though and seeing their improvement will be something as that young, next generation core is really starting to take shape with already seven future A-graders in Lukosius/Rankine/B.King/Rowell/Anderson/Flanders/Ballard now in place - assuming Gold Coast's player development improves.



A bit of the collective group think and a bit of having guys available they rated much higher than their eventual draft position compelling them to trade up and pay well overs to do so.

I actually see next year's draft as being better than this year's, the difference that may make it seem worse to a small extent is that it's compromised. This year is a below average draft anyway in my view so I see a far too large adjustment as having happened. I think Melbourne and Port Adelaide will pay be haunted by their decisions to trade their 2020 firsts.

Had Collingwood as one example not traded their 2019 first last year in that Beams trade - they could have secured Deven Robertson, Josh Worrell or Harrison Jones. They'd likely be loving any one of those guys right now, aside from the 2018 first round pick they moved last year.



Rivers for me of the pair I evaluate as the better player. He has the production on the board and Taylor while talented doesn't find as much of it or hit the scoreboard or pressure to the level I'd like him to, to rate inside my top-20. Melbourne got their forward earlier in Pickett and Rivers adds much needed class and pace through the midfield and off half-back.



Most clubs favoured Jackson over Green. There might have only been 3/4 clubs that favoured Green. My evaluation agrees with the small minority.

De Goey I actually rated at 14 fyi. Goddard I actually rated at 16: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

Obviously in hindsight I'd rate De Goey much higher and Goddard not at all. Goddard I expected would develop a lot better. Perhaps St Kilda's lacking youth development of the time had some impact on that. And maybe being exposed to a positive culture at Collingwood benefitted De Goey and has allowed for him to fulfil his potential? My view since towards KPPs has changed a fair bit since. With key defenders I look at lot more at guys who intercept and win their 1v1s with those who don't rebound/intercept largely not on my board anymore. De Goey under my revised analysis I've learnt a lot from underrating also and have since placed a greater value on contested ball winners with an element of power to them.

Looking back at 2014, I feel like I made a lot of good calls. Rating Corey Ellis 50 early on I should have stuck with and it was a mistake in my revised draft moving him up to 25, I should have stuck with my own instincts and not gotten sucked in. Top 20 pick Blaine Boekhorst I didn't have inside my top-40, and originally didn't have inside my top 50 but again got sucked in by the calls he would go early - something I no longer do. Top-30 picks Pat McKenna, Daniel Nielson, Lukas Webb or Dillon Viojo-Rainbow were not inside my top-50, and McKenna who I didn't rate should have remained off my draft board but again at that time I was getting slightly sucked into group think and giving a tiny bit of weighting towards that. It brings me back to backing yourself. Don't just have guys on your draft board because clubs rate them or other rates them. Back your own evaluation and you don't have to get sucked into guys who are overrated. Paddy McCartin I rated at 5th which is another interesting one in hindsight from that year. Harris Andrews I should have had higher than I did though still rated more than 20 positions higher than he eventually went.

Of course in 2014 I missed on Reece McKenzie, though I was not to know mental health issues would see him walk away from the game in his second season. Peter Bampton I arguably shouldn't have rated inside my top 35, though his SANFL League play has been good for a few years now so I'd still argue he should have been given a chance. Jayden Laverde and Kyle Langford were my early draft misses that year and two I overrated, though I still do find their lack of development surprising given Laverde's attributes and the rate of improvement Langford showed before joining Essendon. Might the Bombers have issue developing talent?

It's one of a few drafts I really learnt the lesson to back my own evaluations and block out the noise.



Pasini actually got rookied by Port Adelaide. I look at him as a dour defender who doesn't intercept/rebound enough for my liking.

Hilder and Finlay I rated. Brodie Newman and Nick Murray were the two others I rated. All in my 45-55 range. All really nice intercept marks and strong 1v1. They're the things I look for in key defenders. For mine they're all very developable. As a group I really hope they all continue on with their footy because I can see them each becoming monsters in the various state leagues in no time.

Unlikely but you never know. The trade was for Jeremy Sharp not for pick 11 in reality, which could be pick 15/16 next year... which is where we rated him anyway. It makes sense.

 

[SeanM]

Do you have a sense of why Sydney would have selected Chad Warner when Jay Rantall was still available? I was expecting the Swans to select Rantall with pick 27 if he was still there. But then he was still available at pick 39.

Warner seems like a tough defensive inside mid. Rantall is noted for being a good runner but he still seemed ok in winning the ball and getting his handballs out.

I was impressed by him for Vic Country. He seemed like he had the athletic ability to get to ground ball contests and clean hands to get the ball out.

 

[Mutineer]

My 2020 top-20 AFL Draft prospects: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28191579/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2020

Big call on Kaine Baldwin with his full knee reco factored in?...

 

[Knightmare]

Alex Davies will be an interesting one could work out essentially as another free first rounder given the sun's can pre select him

They'll be wanting to put a lot of time and development into him this year.

Unlikely but you never know. The trade was for Jeremy Sharp not for pick 11 in reality, which could be pick 15/16 next year... which is where we rated him anyway. It makes sense.

There is that argument, though let's say Sharp is rated as something like the 11th best in this year's draft. Next year with pick 11 they may be able to get the player they view as the 6th best player available. Generally with picks I find there is someone available at most stages during the draft where I rate them twice as high as the pick we're up to.

eg. going through my best availables. From pick 3 Green was my best (bid at 10), Flanders (4th on my board) from there was my best and goes at 11, Kemp 5th on my board (goes pick 17), Robertson 7th (goes pick 22). And I'll get that kind of thing all through the draft each year and even after the draft I'll probably have a top 30 (Shute this year, Stack last year) player and a few from my top 40 still available.

Do you have a sense of why Sydney would have selected Chad Warner when Jay Rantall was still available? I was expecting the Swans to select Rantall with pick 27 if he was still there. But then he was still available at pick 39.

Warner seems like a tough defensive inside mid. Rantall is noted for being a good runner but he still seemed ok in winning the ball and getting his handballs out.

Warner is an even higher volume contested ball winner and isn't as inconsistent by foot. My pick of the two is Rantall given he's the better mover and has far superior endurance. But I don't hate the Warner pick. In saying that, neither were at that pick my best available mid with Ryan Byrnes (18th on my board and went 52 to Saints) my best mid on my board for a good while.

Big call on Kaine Baldwin with his full knee reco factored in?...

Depends how he gets back from it. Some SA recruiters thought he was the best in the pool and best KPF before the injury. He probably won't have the strongest 2020 as it generally takes a year of being back before playing good footy again, but that should mean once on an AFL list in 2021 he is at full flight.

Guys can get back from major injuries as juniors, and easier than they can when they hit later times in their careers. So Baldwin deserves to be there based on what he has done to date. He'll need a good 2020 still though to remain inside my top-20 as with all the other KPPs as rate of improvement is a key factor in projecting whether they'll be successful at the next level.

 

[andleanback]

My 2020 top-20 AFL Draft prospects: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28191579/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2020

Id have Grainger-baras in there over someone like wil parker or sam collins. He's a top 10 lock

 

[curnow inferno]

Km who do you think won the carlton deal with adelaide now that all the players are selected?

So basically, would you rather..

Stocker + kemp + philp - pick 55 (used to get philp)

OR

pick 4 lachlan ash (if crows kept that pick)

OR

pick 6 fischer mcasey + gws 2020 1st pick?

 

[eDPS]

Id have Grainger-baras in there over someone like wil parker or sam collins. He's a top 10 lock

Not quite yet, will hopefully grow taller than his current 192cm.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

They'll be wanting to put a lot of time and development into him this year. (Davies)

You would expect we will be.

You hope we'd play him in the NEAFL at every opportunity. Especially against the AFL clubs. Looked good against Sydney NEAFL toward the end of the year.

With more midfield depth on the list this year we will have a much better NEAFL midfield with Miles, Flanders, Holman even Miller and Brodie playing a lot of NEAFL games as opposed to Scheer, Young, Rischitelli who were our midfield for most of 2019. Davies should be able to learn something from all of those guys.