Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[GapInIkonPark]

Want to add Knightmare that I appreciate your discussion and analysis on potential draftees over the year.

 

[Knightmare]

So let me get this right ...

In your most recent Power rankings you have Kemp at 5.

You had D Stephens ‘Power ranked’ at 8. Sydney ‘reached’ to get him at 5, but get an A.

Carlton use its Pick 9 to get Kemp at 17 who you Power Rank at 5 and an extra, Philp at 20 (who apparently Richmond wanted at the very next pick) so simply is not a ‘reach’ as you say.

I gather you don’t rate Ramsay.

GC overpaid to get Sharp ... but still get an A. Carlton got a C. How do you compare Carlton’s Pick swap with Adelaide last year with Gold Coast’s ‘overpayment’, and still have Gold Coast at A and rated Carlton at E or whatever last year?

I know you can change. You have grudgingly accepted that Carlton’s drafting last year with the benefit of hindsight warrants a B (rather than an E or whatever it was) on the back of Walsh being up there with the 4 you rated as ahead of him including Lukosius and King IIRC.

Carlton missed the perfect fit with their first pick. Sam Flanders was the guy they needed. Carlton need a small/medium forward to compliment their midfielders and there is none better in the draft than Flanders. He's the better forward and better mid.

Kemp I like, but I'm not convinced he's the list fit. The trade back had a player I liked more been acquired I may have given greater props for but having rated Philp at 57 on my own board I can't give that move as much credit as I otherwise would.

Ramsay I wouldn't have drafted at all and while I haven't extended my draft board out to 100, I don't expect he would be inside my top-100.

Had Kemp not been drafted by Carlton that C+ would have been an E.

Ultimately I view every club in this draft as a mixed bag so my ratings this year aren't all that different from team to team. Even Gold Coast who I felt had the best draft securing correctly the best two players, trading up and getting a bargain in Flanders, then getting for pick 27 what I also felt was a bargain in Sharp, really messed up badly with spending such an exorbitant amount to get Sharp.

If I'm to give Carlton an overall off-season grade as I'd be giving an 'A'. Kemp I view as good value as already mentioned. Newnes I liked the addition of and feel can be a piece. Then the big win that elevates Carlton's grade drastically is securing Jack Martin for nothing. While Martin doesn't come under my national draft review as he was picked in the PSD, Martin for mine is better than several of the guys taken late in the first round (Pickett/Day/Weightman/Georgiades/De Koning/Philp/Dow specifically based on my own ratings). Overall Carlton enter 2020 with a better list than they had last year. Kemp probably won't appear until 2021 at the earliest but he has game and Martin and Newnes will improve the sides best 22. Carlton I fully expect to continue their rise and contend this year for potentially 7th/8th spot injuries and continued development permitting.

Mitch O'Neil did cop a MCL knee injury late in the season sure but he won back to back All Australian honors so from that perspective his year was pretty good. Read that in April you ranked him 5 to 20.

He did miss the combine testing.

Pick 27 in the rookie draft!

Wow. Just WOW!

is it being a Tassie lad you fly under the radar a bit?

O'Neill was on display in NAB League, so his play has hardly been hidden away with Tasmania now in the NAB League and was obviously seen during the U18 Champs. I suspect he was on a number of draft boards but ultimately not anyone's preference until that stage. I can't say his play ever 'wowed' me this year and for me he was very much a borderline All-Australian and probably someone neither last year nor this year someone I would have chosen honestly with a few others performing better in my view. Going into the season O'Neill was viewed as a first round pick, and there were others viewed as a first round pick coming into the year who have gone undrafted completely and that's largely due to lack of development. O'Neill while injuries have played their part also fits into that category of he's not any better than he was last year which is why he has dropped.

You rated dees a C and say Jackson and Pickett were reaches yet Jackson would have been gone next pick if we didn’t take him, article on AFL Website has a few recruiters taking him if they had pick 3, Pickett yes maybe a reach but exactly the player we need, I think dees nailed the draft but I guess we won’t know for a few years anyway

My ratings of clubs are based on my own ratings. Having Jackson at 13 and Pickett at 33 in my own power rankings it was inevitable that I was going to mark Melbourne down. The Rivers selection was the value selection that saved Melbourne from a 'D'.

For me it's egregious that from pick 3 that any club would skip on Green. Recruiters don't agree with me, but Green is for mine on parr with Rowell and Anderson and everyone else is a couple of tiers down before the discussion of who the next guy is.

Jackson as a sub 200cm ruckman who is likely to play a lot as a key forward but for me hasn't played the position all that naturally when used there. There is some hope because in the WAFL Colts he has averaged 1 goal per game, but his leading patterns aren't great and he doesn't have the same knack forward of centre for finding the footy as he does when used through the ruck where he can followup and win it at ground level. If he can develop into a big bodied ball winning midfielder and then relieve through the ruck which has also been spoken about, that would change my view of him entirely but until I've seen it I can't give him that ultimate credit.

Pickett I evaluate as someone who is who he is and likely won't change drastically from who he is. At 171cm, he's probably not growing much and he is grown into his body. What he does in his first 1-3 years is what you'll likely get for his career. If he can become something like McDonald-Tipungwuti. That's a win. And he has a lot of that. Brings the forward pressure like that, instinctive at ground level, great ball users and have that speed. Pickett also has trouble finding the footy consistently and isn't going to hit the scoreboard in a big way as a sub 1 goal per game guy during the U18 Champs. He's someone I see playing a role, but as long as you're happy with his pressure coming with something like an inconsistent 10d, 3m and 1g per game throughout his career that's what you're probably going to get.

Rivers I view as all class. I'd probably use him off half-back, but he can roll through the midfield and win it. Has the skills, moves well. So he's a missing component and should have been selected 10 picks earlier on quality. So Melbourne got some value there if he continues improving.

 

[andleanback]

Carlton missed the perfect fit with their first pick. Sam Flanders was the guy they needed. Carlton need a small/medium forward to compliment their midfielders and there is none better in the draft than Flanders. He's the better forward and better mid.

Kemp I like, but I'm not convinced he's the list fit. The trade back had a player I liked more been acquired I may have given greater props for but having rated Philp at 57 on my own board I can't give that move as much credit as I otherwise would.

Ramsay I wouldn't have drafted at all and while I haven't extended my draft board out to 100, I don't expect he would be inside my top-100.

Had Kemp not been drafted by Carlton that C+ would have been an E.

Ultimately I view every club in this draft as a mixed bag so my ratings this year aren't all that different from team to team. Even Gold Coast who I felt had the best draft securing correctly the best two players, trading up and getting a bargain in Flanders, then getting for pick 27 what I also felt was a bargain in Sharp, really messed up badly with spending such an exorbitant amount to get Sharp.

If I'm to give Carlton an overall off-season grade as I'd be giving an 'A'. Kemp I view as good value as already mentioned. Newnes I liked the addition of and feel can be a piece. Then the big win that elevates Carlton's grade drastically is securing Jack Martin for nothing. While Martin doesn't come under my national draft review as he was picked in the PSD, Martin for mine is better than several of the guys taken late in the first round (Pickett/Day/Weightman/Georgiades/De Koning/Philp/Dow specifically based on my own ratings). Overall Carlton enter 2020 with a better list than they had last year. Kemp probably won't appear until 2021 at the earliest but he has game and Martin and Newnes will improve the sides best 22. Carlton I fully expect to continue their rise and contend this year for potentially 7th/8th spot injuries and continued development permitting.



O'Neill was on display in NAB League, so his play has hardly been hidden away with Tasmania now in the NAB League and was obviously seen during the U18 Champs. I suspect he was on a number of draft boards but ultimately not anyone's preference until that stage. I can't say his play ever 'wowed' me this year and for me he was very much a borderline All-Australian and probably someone neither last year nor this year someone I would have chosen honestly with a few others performing better in my view. Going into the season O'Neill was viewed as a first round pick, and there were others viewed as a first round pick coming into the year who have gone undrafted completely and that's largely due to lack of development. O'Neill while injuries have played their part also fits into that category of he's not any better than he was last year which is why he has dropped.



My ratings of clubs are based on my own ratings. Having Jackson at 13 and Pickett at 33 in my own power rankings it was inevitable that I was going to mark Melbourne down. The Rivers selection was the value selection that saved Melbourne from a 'D'.

For me it's egregious that from pick 3 that any club would skip on Green. Recruiters don't agree with me, but Green is for mine on parr with Rowell and Anderson and everyone else is a couple of tiers down before the discussion of who the next guy is.

Jackson as a sub 200cm ruckman who is likely to play a lot as a key forward but for me hasn't played the position all that naturally when used there. There is some hope because in the WAFL Colts he has averaged 1 goal per game, but his leading patterns aren't great and he doesn't have the same knack forward of centre for finding the footy as he does when used through the ruck where he can followup and win it at ground level. If he can develop into a big bodied ball winning midfielder and then relieve through the ruck which has also been spoken about, that would change my view of him entirely but until I've seen it I can't give him that ultimate credit.

Pickett I evaluate as someone who is who he is and likely won't change drastically from who he is. At 171cm, he's probably not growing much and he is grown into his body. What he does in his first 1-3 years is what you'll likely get for his career. If he can become something like McDonald-Tipungwuti. That's a win. And he has a lot of that. Brings the forward pressure like that, instinctive at ground level, great ball users and have that speed. Pickett also has trouble finding the footy consistently and isn't going to hit the scoreboard in a big way as a sub 1 goal per game guy during the U18 Champs. He's someone I see playing a role, but as long as you're happy with his pressure coming with something like an inconsistent 10d, 3m and 1g per game throughout his career that's what you're probably going to get.

Rivers I view as all class. I'd probably use him off half-back, but he can roll through the midfield and win it. Has the skills, moves well. So he's a missing component and should have been selected 10 picks earlier on quality. So Melbourne got some value there if he continues improving.

I agree I reckon rivers will be their best player out of the ‘19 draft haul

 

[Brend81]

Carlton missed the perfect fit with their first pick. Sam Flanders was the guy they needed. Carlton need a small/medium forward to compliment their midfielders and there is none better in the draft than Flanders. He's the better forward and better mid.

Kemp I like, but I'm not convinced he's the list fit. The trade back had a player I liked more been acquired I may have given greater props for but having rated Philp at 57 on my own board I can't give that move as much credit as I otherwise would.

Ramsay I wouldn't have drafted at all and while I haven't extended my draft board out to 100, I don't expect he would be inside my top-100.

Had Kemp not been drafted by Carlton that C+ would have been an E.

Ultimately I view every club in this draft as a mixed bag so my ratings this year aren't all that different from team to team. Even Gold Coast who I felt had the best draft securing correctly the best two players, trading up and getting a bargain in Flanders, then getting for pick 27 what I also felt was a bargain in Sharp, really messed up badly with spending such an exorbitant amount to get Sharp.

If I'm to give Carlton an overall off-season grade as I'd be giving an 'A'. Kemp I view as good value as already mentioned. Newnes I liked the addition of and feel can be a piece. Then the big win that elevates Carlton's grade drastically is securing Jack Martin for nothing. While Martin doesn't come under my national draft review as he was picked in the PSD, Martin for mine is better than several of the guys taken late in the first round (Pickett/Day/Weightman/Georgiades/De Koning/Philp/Dow specifically based on my own ratings). Overall Carlton enter 2020 with a better list than they had last year. Kemp probably won't appear until 2021 at the earliest but he has game and Martin and Newnes will improve the sides best 22. Carlton I fully expect to continue their rise and contend this year for potentially 7th/8th spot injuries and continued development permitting.



O'Neill was on display in NAB League, so his play has hardly been hidden away with Tasmania now in the NAB League and was obviously seen during the U18 Champs. I suspect he was on a number of draft boards but ultimately not anyone's preference until that stage. I can't say his play ever 'wowed' me this year and for me he was very much a borderline All-Australian and probably someone neither last year nor this year someone I would have chosen honestly with a few others performing better in my view. Going into the season O'Neill was viewed as a first round pick, and there were others viewed as a first round pick coming into the year who have gone undrafted completely and that's largely due to lack of development. O'Neill while injuries have played their part also fits into that category of he's not any better than he was last year which is why he has dropped.



My ratings of clubs are based on my own ratings. Having Jackson at 13 and Pickett at 33 in my own power rankings it was inevitable that I was going to mark Melbourne down. The Rivers selection was the value selection that saved Melbourne from a 'D'.

For me it's egregious that from pick 3 that any club would skip on Green. Recruiters don't agree with me, but Green is for mine on parr with Rowell and Anderson and everyone else is a couple of tiers down before the discussion of who the next guy is.

Jackson as a sub 200cm ruckman who is likely to play a lot as a key forward but for me hasn't played the position all that naturally when used there. There is some hope because in the WAFL Colts he has averaged 1 goal per game, but his leading patterns aren't great and he doesn't have the same knack forward of centre for finding the footy as he does when used through the ruck where he can followup and win it at ground level. If he can develop into a big bodied ball winning midfielder and then relieve through the ruck which has also been spoken about, that would change my view of him entirely but until I've seen it I can't give him that ultimate credit.

Pickett I evaluate as someone who is who he is and likely won't change drastically from who he is. At 171cm, he's probably not growing much and he is grown into his body. What he does in his first 1-3 years is what you'll likely get for his career. If he can become something like McDonald-Tipungwuti. That's a win. And he has a lot of that. Brings the forward pressure like that, instinctive at ground level, great ball users and have that speed. Pickett also has trouble finding the footy consistently and isn't going to hit the scoreboard in a big way as a sub 1 goal per game guy during the U18 Champs. He's someone I see playing a role, but as long as you're happy with his pressure coming with something like an inconsistent 10d, 3m and 1g per game throughout his career that's what you're probably going to get.

Rivers I view as all class. I'd probably use him off half-back, but he can roll through the midfield and win it. Has the skills, moves well. So he's a missing component and should have been selected 10 picks earlier on quality. So Melbourne got some value there if he continues improving.

Thanks for the reply I will admit I was on the fence over Jackson but after watching the highlights the MFC Released on there website of some of his forward work I’m convinced we made the right call he has plenty of upside and will be interesting to see how he goes, as for picket he is exactly who we need we had no problem getting the ball inside 50 this year but couldn’t keep it there, we are screaming out for forward pressure and with picket and toby Bedford who is looking very good so far this pre season we suddenly have some options.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Thanks for your reply Knightmare.

Arguably all of GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Melbourne did not rate Flanders sufficiently either.

Does Brisbane go up in rating for getting Robertson sliding past somany clubs?

I understand you are measuring against your own Power Rankings, but when Carlton is splitting picks and still gets a highly rated player and a second that Richmond was going to take at 21 that you rate at 57, then maybe the issue is your Rankings.

 

[Obeanie1]

I agree I reckon rivers will be their best player out of the ‘19 draft haul

And he won't be there for long.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for your reply Knightmare.

Arguably all of GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Melbourne did not rate Flanders sufficiently either.

Does Brisbane go up in rating for getting Robertson sliding past somany clubs?

I understand you are measuring against your own Power Rankings, but when Carlton is splitting picks and still gets a highly rated player and a second that Richmond was going to take at 21 that you rate at 57, then maybe the issue is your Rankings.

The one thing any 'good' recruiter will tell you is back your own rankings. Don't listen to what everyone else is saying and how they are ranking them. Back your own eyes and your own analysis. If a mistake is made in a given year, and inevitably there will be mistakes, learn from it.

By blocking out the noise, it means you can find good players other clubs won't and avoid players others will miss on. The draft isn't a perfectly linear thing. The guy a club may pick at pick 1 isn't necessarily going to be the best in a draft, and pick 2 isn't necessarily always going to be better than pick 3 etc. And if you're aware of the draft boards from club to club you'd be well aware that their own power rankings don't correlate with where players actually go in the draft and they'll find guys at 60 that they might rate inside their top-30 or guys at 40 they rank inside their top 20.

By following this process it has allowed for me to find and rate Ben Brown, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Kyle Hartigan years before they were drafted. Tom Langdon the year before he was picked. It has allowed for me to rate Jon O'Rourke and Lachie Plowman outside my top 10 and Sam Mayes outside my top-20 and to rate Brodie Grundy, Joe Daniher, Ollie Wines, Jack Macrae, Jack Viney and Jake Stringer all ahead of them. Last year it also allowed me to rate Sydney Stack inside my top-25 even though he went undrafted and Marlion Pickett again after many years of rating him to again be inside my top-50 when again he was remarkably overlooked also.

Of course by backing your own rankings it will mean you have some howlers along the way. Waylon Manson I rated inside my top 10 in 2011 and Reece McKenzie inside my top 10 in 2014 were in hindsight among my most notable. But it's also going to allow you to see things club recruiters won't and to not pick up the same often incorrect biases they pick up eg. not recruiting state leaguers in their mid-late 20s as just one example top of mind, or trading away future picks too liberally, and allows you to critically think and analyse things.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

You rated dees a C and say Jackson and Pickett were reaches yet Jackson would have been gone next pick if we didn’t take him, article on AFL Website has a few recruiters taking him if they had pick 3, Pickett yes maybe a reach but exactly the player we need, I think dees nailed the draft but I guess we won’t know for a few years anyway

Can see Pickett being a bust, do you think he is AFL ready next year?
Can see Jackson being good in 5 years.

 

[Brend81]

Can see Pickett being a bust, do you think he is AFL ready next year?
Can see Jackson being good in 5 years.

Can’t see why not will see how he goes over the summer

 

[LittleG]

Can see Pickett being a bust, do you think he is AFL ready next year?
Can see Jackson being good in 5 years.

I see Pickett continuing to be a low production, pressure player, who rarely hits the scoreboard..... just like now. Solid role player.
IF you consider a top 10 pick producing a role player a bust, then you are right.

 

[RobbieK]

Do you just base your rankings just on watching the games and any other data that gets released? Or do you also get a chance to talk to the players and get a sense of them off the field as well as on? Would it be fair to say that the major differences between your rankings and the rankings internally at the clubs would come down more on the side of the latter than the former?

 

[My name geoff]

How much AFL footy gets played on polished boards? Every game I've ever watched gets played on that soft green stuff they call grass?

This statement couldn't be truer when applied to Jordan Gallucci who you ravens fans were fawning over his vertical leap testing

 

[Tarka_Dal]

Collingwood get an A for drafting a few guys who will be battlers at best

The Pies got two players in Rantall and Bianco who were rated as probable 2nd rounders by most draft pundits. To get them at 40 and 45 is a decent draft haul given their position. I was hoping the Roos would draft Bianco with one of our 2nd rounders.

 

[petrolium]

Hi Knightmare, really appreciated your work during this draft period. What are your views on Cooper Stephens? Also wondering if you have seen Francis Evans play live and what you think of him too?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM sorry if its covered but thoughts on Jackaon as a fit at melbourne, for mw it jusy makes no sense. They have Gawn eho is 27, Preuss 24 who jusy signed a 4 year deal and they use pick 3 on an undersized ruckmen.. Where is his opportunity to play senior footy going to come from??

i reckon you could almost guarantee the Dees will be accepting a late 2nd round pick in 2 years time as the kid looks for an opportunity elsewhere

 

[year of the cat]

KM sorry if its covered but thoughts on Jackaon as a fit at melbourne, for mw it jusy makes no sense. They have Gawn eho is 27, Preuss 24 who jusy signed a 4 year deal and they use pick 3 on an undersized ruckmen.. Where is his opportunity to play senior footy going to come from??

i reckon you could almost guarantee the Dees will be accepting a late 2nd round pick in 2 years time as the kid looks for an opportunity elsewhere

More likely they offload Preuss. Jackson already gets a game in front on him.

 

[Knightmare]

Can see Pickett being a bust, do you think he is AFL ready next year?
Can see Jackson being good in 5 years.

Pickett has the scope to play a role and could well play next year given Melbourne lack what he can bring.

Do you just base your rankings just on watching the games and any other data that gets released? Or do you also get a chance to talk to the players and get a sense of them off the field as well as on? Would it be fair to say that the major differences between your rankings and the rankings internally at the clubs would come down more on the side of the latter than the former?

I'm watching games every week. Considering stats is vital and has to blend in with what the eye sees.

I don't spend my time talking to the players, though often sitting nearby the benches I can get some feel for what the players are like. My interest is in assessing the quality of their play. Clubs do the interviewing/personality background stuff.

Clubs get a lot more vision/data than I do, but the major advantage other than having a team of recruiters is their access to players. I don't have the time for that. I work a full time job aside from my time watching them play, so I don't have that kind of time to spend doing that.

Hi Knightmare, really appreciated your work during this draft period. What are your views on Cooper Stephens? Also wondering if you have seen Francis Evans play live and what you think of him too?

Cooper Stephens I like. Went earlier than I thought he would. But I like him. Wins it inside and bursts out of stoppages. Really physically developed, has the endurance. He can play next year and with that year back should be ready to become a regular in 2021.

Have seen one of Evans' two games. Wasn't a standout, kicked a couple of goals, didn't find enough of it and it wasn't enough for me to go off to feel he was draftable. A larger sample size of games with data is really needed for me to endorse the selection. A real risk considering the players still available. For me it's irresponsible for someone who has only played the two games and averaged sub 10d over the two games to consider as more than a rookie.

KM sorry if its covered but thoughts on Jackaon as a fit at melbourne, for mw it jusy makes no sense. They have Gawn eho is 27, Preuss 24 who jusy signed a 4 year deal and they use pick 3 on an undersized ruckmen.. Where is his opportunity to play senior footy going to come from??

i reckon you could almost guarantee the Dees will be accepting a late 2nd round pick in 2 years time as the kid looks for an opportunity elsewhere

Melbourne will be hoping to develop Jackson to be a key forward who can relieve through the ruck and maybe even start as a big mid at some stoppages. It's an interesting vision. High risk and not what I would have done. The end game plan would be for Jackson to become the lead ruck once Gawn retires and by then Jackson should be in the prime of his career in his mid 20s when ruckmen generally hit their stride.

I can see Melbourne moving Preuss out at the end of next year. I fully expect Melbourne keep Jackson long term. Probably throw him in at some stage next year for a stretch of games as a trial if he goes ok in the VFL. Two years from now the stories around Jackson more likely will be - why didn't they bid on Green and/or take Young instead who was that other player they considered and while not my preferred option would have been a better option.

 

[Soapy V]

Interesting your rankings on Honey & Phillips. Seems we have done well with our rookie selections

Philp & Ramsey look good picks as well and around your rankings. Kemp I personally rated Top 3 so very happy overall.

 

[Richo83]

Can you explain the argument that Kemp isn't a great list fit for Carlton? I get that other players may have fitted better, but Carlton is still very bare in the middle and his size would help a team which is rather small and one-dimensional in the middle.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

I see Pickett continuing to be a low production, pressure player, who rarely hits the scoreboard..... just like now. Solid role player.
IF you consider a top 10 pick producing a role player a bust, then you are right.

Connor buderick for instance could play that exact role? Fast, good pressure, excellent tackler.
Rated a pick in the 40+ by most.
I get that Pickett can take a hanger that buderick can’t, buy in that particular role.. would there really be a top 10 vs 40+ difference.

 

[Knightmare]

Can you explain the argument that Kemp isn't a great list fit for Carlton? I get that other players may have fitted better, but Carlton is still very bare in the middle and his size would help a team which is rather small and one-dimensional in the middle.

I want to see Kemp develop as a mid, and he has shown flashes through there, but where he has played most of his football is as a KPP. So he's someone where if he doesn't work out as a mid, you better have a KPP available to slot him into. He's a high risk/high reward player who isn't perfect for every team because his best position is unclear and it's not certain to be through the midfield. Geelong in my view would have been a perfect destination for Kemp because they need those future midfielders and could do with a long term key forward or key defender, so having those positional gaps, it gives things the best chance of working. Had Geelong added Kemp/Robertson/Byrnes with their first three picks and secured Biggy in their pick tradeup, that would have for them been an incredible haul not only getting the best guys from my power rankings but perfect list fits given their needs.

With pick 17, I'm taking Kemp. But to move down from the chance to get Flanders, to getting Kemp and someone I rate outside my top 55, I'm not seeing that as a capitalisation of a trade, with Carlton's selections other than Kemp unappealing. Flanders as a list fit would have been much better because he's more a medium sizer who can better compliment Carlton's tall forwards and is a much more sure midfielder.

Carlton have been unlucky in my trade and draft reviews because the reviews don't include delisted free agency (when they secured Newnes who I rate) or the PSD (where they added Martin who I consider better than a combination of the first round choices picked). Getting those guys at no cost instantly makes it a great offseason for Carlton where they've improved their list. I just don't happen other than Kemp to rate Carlton's other draft choices. Philp I viewed as appropriate for selection late draft. Ramsay more-so for a VFL list. Honey and Phillips as rookies are suitable though like those other guys not necessarily the guys I'd choose with numerous players I still rated available and going undrafted.

 

[weltschmerz]

Who in your opinion is the best player to go undrafted?

 

[Knightmare]

Who in your opinion is the best player to go undrafted?

Joshua Shute (29), Angus Baker (35), Ben Sokol (36) the last three from inside my top-40 power rankings.
Haiden Schloithe (didn't nominate), Jye Bolton, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are all guys I would have drafted.

 

[My name geoff]

Carlton missed the perfect fit with their first pick. Sam Flanders was the guy they needed. Carlton need a small/medium forward to compliment their midfielders and there is none better in the draft than Flanders. He's the better forward and better mid.

Kemp I like, but I'm not convinced he's the list fit. The trade back had a player I liked more been acquired I may have given greater props for but having rated Philp at 57 on my own board I can't give that move as much credit as I otherwise would.

Ramsay I wouldn't have drafted at all and while I haven't extended my draft board out to 100, I don't expect he would be inside my top-100.

Had Kemp not been drafted by Carlton that C+ would have been an E.

Ultimately I view every club in this draft as a mixed bag so my ratings this year aren't all that different from team to team. Even Gold Coast who I felt had the best draft securing correctly the best two players, trading up and getting a bargain in Flanders, then getting for pick 27 what I also felt was a bargain in Sharp, really messed up badly with spending such an exorbitant amount to get Sharp.

If I'm to give Carlton an overall off-season grade as I'd be giving an 'A'. Kemp I view as good value as already mentioned. Newnes I liked the addition of and feel can be a piece. Then the big win that elevates Carlton's grade drastically is securing Jack Martin for nothing. While Martin doesn't come under my national draft review as he was picked in the PSD, Martin for mine is better than several of the guys taken late in the first round (Pickett/Day/Weightman/Georgiades/De Koning/Philp/Dow specifically based on my own ratings). Overall Carlton enter 2020 with a better list than they had last year. Kemp probably won't appear until 2021 at the earliest but he has game and Martin and Newnes will improve the sides best 22. Carlton I fully expect to continue their rise and contend this year for potentially 7th/8th spot injuries and continued development permitting.



O'Neill was on display in NAB League, so his play has hardly been hidden away with Tasmania now in the NAB League and was obviously seen during the U18 Champs. I suspect he was on a number of draft boards but ultimately not anyone's preference until that stage. I can't say his play ever 'wowed' me this year and for me he was very much a borderline All-Australian and probably someone neither last year nor this year someone I would have chosen honestly with a few others performing better in my view. Going into the season O'Neill was viewed as a first round pick, and there were others viewed as a first round pick coming into the year who have gone undrafted completely and that's largely due to lack of development. O'Neill while injuries have played their part also fits into that category of he's not any better than he was last year which is why he has dropped.



My ratings of clubs are based on my own ratings. Having Jackson at 13 and Pickett at 33 in my own power rankings it was inevitable that I was going to mark Melbourne down. The Rivers selection was the value selection that saved Melbourne from a 'D'.

For me it's egregious that from pick 3 that any club would skip on Green. Recruiters don't agree with me, but Green is for mine on parr with Rowell and Anderson and everyone else is a couple of tiers down before the discussion of who the next guy is.

Jackson as a sub 200cm ruckman who is likely to play a lot as a key forward but for me hasn't played the position all that naturally when used there. There is some hope because in the WAFL Colts he has averaged 1 goal per game, but his leading patterns aren't great and he doesn't have the same knack forward of centre for finding the footy as he does when used through the ruck where he can followup and win it at ground level. If he can develop into a big bodied ball winning midfielder and then relieve through the ruck which has also been spoken about, that would change my view of him entirely but until I've seen it I can't give him that ultimate credit.

Pickett I evaluate as someone who is who he is and likely won't change drastically from who he is. At 171cm, he's probably not growing much and he is grown into his body. What he does in his first 1-3 years is what you'll likely get for his career. If he can become something like McDonald-Tipungwuti. That's a win. And he has a lot of that. Brings the forward pressure like that, instinctive at ground level, great ball users and have that speed. Pickett also has trouble finding the footy consistently and isn't going to hit the scoreboard in a big way as a sub 1 goal per game guy during the U18 Champs. He's someone I see playing a role, but as long as you're happy with his pressure coming with something like an inconsistent 10d, 3m and 1g per game throughout his career that's what you're probably going to get.

Rivers I view as all class. I'd probably use him off half-back, but he can roll through the midfield and win it. Has the skills, moves well. So he's a missing component and should have been selected 10 picks earlier on quality. So Melbourne got some value there if he continues improving.

Out of curiosity, who do you rate as having a better off-season than Carlton considering what was given up and what was brought in?


We started with pick 9, 41, 46, 73, 82 before trade period and did some pick shuffles which canceled each other out, but the end result you could argue that our ins and out's were effectively,

OUT:

Philips
2020 4th rounder
Draft picks 9, 41, 46, 73, 82 (bolded to indicate that only 65 players were taken in the draft)

IN:

Eddie Betts - good for 30+ goals in 2020
Pittonet - will likely be first ruck by 2021
Martin - will be a game changer. Fills a big hole on our list.
Newnes - 26 year old 150 gamer
Kemp - you had him in your top five before his ACL
Sam Philp - was fastest over 20, top 10 vertical leap, top 10 yoyo
Sam Ramsay

The only valuable commodities lost were arguably pick 9 and maybe 41 and 46. We would have coughed up those 3 picks for Kemp and Philp alone. Pretty decent haul. On face value, it appears that SOS the master has indeed done it again. Give the man an A+ Knightmare

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Joshua Shute (29), Angus Baker (35), Ben Sokol (36) the last three from inside my top-40 power rankings.
Haiden Schloithe (didn't nominate), Jye Bolton, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are all guys I would have drafted.

What do you take from 18 AFL clubs passing over guys you rate? How does it feed into your future talent assessment?